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Electric cars: Boom or bust?

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Media coverage of electric cars in this country is pretty confusing.  Are electric cars taking over or has the EV bubble burst?

EVs currently represent about 8% of the US new car market.  But they continue to face some relatively unique headwinds in this country.  A very powerful and influential oil industry makes sure that anti-EV stories occupy center stage in the media.  Traditional car dealers don’t want to sell EVs because they don’t make much money from parts and service.  And EVs often find themselves tangled up in American politics.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world tells a very different story.  Globally, EVs constitute 20% of new car sales, but in some places, they are doing much better than that.

So far this year, almost 87% of new car sales in Norway are electric and in August, the figure was 94%.  Norway has some incentives in place for EV owners, but the fact that nearly all new cars on the road are electric is far more than the result of incentives.

One might argue that Norway, a country with only 5 million people, faces a much easier task of transitioning to EVs.   But how about China with its 1.4 billion people?  In July, plug-in vehicles in China were 51% of new auto sales.  And the numbers continue to rise.

There are plenty of articles out there explaining why electric cars just can’t meet people’s needs, have insurmountable problems, and how having too many of them would collapse electric grids and otherwise wreak havoc with society.  Apparently, the Norwegians and Chinese, among a growing number of other countries, haven’t gotten the memo.

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Elbil Thinks Electric Car Sales In Norway Could Hit 100% By Next Year

Photo, posted July 27, 2024, courtesy of Amaury Laporte via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

More wind power than coal power

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The U.S. used to get more of its electricity from burning coal than by any other means.  It wasn’t all that long ago; coal produced 51% of our electricity in 2001. But as of 2022, it was less than 20%.

In March and April, the U.S. generated more electricity from wind power than from coal.  This was the first time that wind outstripped coal for two consecutive months.

This crossover between wind and coal power is just another milestone in the energy transition to renewable energy sources.  Renewables collectively produce more electricity than coal and their share is steadily growing.  The explosive growth in renewable energy is primarily the result of three factors:  federal tax credits, state energy mandates away from fossil fuels, and, most importantly, shifts in the economics of energy.  Breakthroughs in technology and economies of scale have lowered the cost of building new wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage. 

Coal plants have retired at a rapid pace over the past 25 years.  During that time, natural gas capacity has nearly tripled.   Gas began to replace coal starting around 2005 when the fracking boom led to the availability of large quantities of cheap natural gas. Because of this, fossil fuels are still the largest source of electricity generation in the U.S., but that is not likely to be the case for very long.

Analysts expect that wind energy will grow to provide about 35% of the country’s electricity by 2050.  The Department of Energy predicts that solar power will produce 45% of U.S. electricity by that year.

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Wind Beat Coal Two Months in a Row for U.S. Electricity Generation

Photo, posted August 5, 2024, courtesy of Samir Luther via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Explosive Growth Of Electric Vehicles | Earth Wise

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Not long ago, electric cars were a rarity.  Ten years ago, annual global sales of EVs were only a few hundred thousand.  As of today, globally, still less than one percent of all the cars on the road are electric.  But that is changing rapidly.

In fact, electric vehicles are expected to capture nearly 20% of the global market this year.  Global sales of EVs were 3 million in 2020 and 6.6 million in 2021.  Last year, sales of electric vehicles hit 10 million and are expected to reach 14 million this year according to the International Energy Agency.

Analysts at the IEA have had to repeatedly revise their projections for future EV sales as the numbers keep going up faster than predicted.  Last year, they projected that EVs would account for 21% of global sales by 2030.  Now, they expect that EVs will reach 35% of sales by that year.

In the US, the EU, and China, policy efforts are in place to boost EV sales.  In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act both supports the EV industry and subsidizes consumer purchases with tax credits. As a result of such policies, the IEA expects electric vehicles to account for 60% of sales across these three large markets by 2030.

Part of what is driving the boom in EV sales is that prices continue to come down for the vehicles.  When operating and maintenance costs are figured in, the EVs come out considerably cheaper to own.  In addition, there are starting to be price wars in the EV industry as competition heats up in the sector.

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EVs to Capture One-Fifth of Global Market This Year Amid ‘Explosive Growth’

Photo, posted May 7, 2022, courtesy of Sharon Hahn Darlin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Solar Power Boom In Texas | Earth Wise

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Texas has been a leader in wind energy for a number of years.  In 2020, wind made up 23% of the state’s generating capacity and provided 20% of in-state generation.  But although wind capacity in Texas has grown rapidly in recent years, solar power is expected to make up the largest share of the state’s capacity additions over the next two years.

Texas plans to add 4.6 gigawatts of utility-scale solar power this year and 5.4 gigawatts in 2022.  This will give the state a total capacity of 15 gigawatts, which will nearly catch up to California, the state with the most large-scale solar power.  California already has 16 gigawatts of installed solar capacity and plans to add about two more over the next two years.

The planned capacity for Texas will provide enough power for roughly 5 million homes, taking into account the intermittency of solar energy.  Much of the new solar capacity will be in the Permian Basin in West Texas, which is a particularly sunny place.  Because solar generation is greatest in the middle of the day, when wind generation is typically lower, the transmission line infrastructure already in place for the wind power will be adequate for the new solar installations.

The boom in solar power in Texas is driven in part by the federal solar Investment Tax Credit that is available to project developers as well as by the ever-lower cost of solar technology. 

One-third of the utility-scale solar capacity planned to come online in the U.S. in the next two years will be in Texas.  Currently, utility-scale solar only makes up 4% of electrical generating capacity in Texas, but that is clearly changing.

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Texas likely to add 10 GW of utility-scale solar capacity in the next two years

Photo, posted May 14, 2020, courtesy of Courtney Celley/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Solar On Commercial Buildings | Earth Wise

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The United States installed 3.6 gigawatts of photovoltaic solar capacity in the first quarter of this year to reach a total installed capacity of 81.4 GW.  That is enough to power about 16 million American homes.  More than 2/3 of that capacity has been installed during the past five years.  

There has been a boom in solar installations in recent years and, until the Covid-19 pandemic stuck, 2020 was expected to be the biggest year yet.  Now the unprecedented health, social, and economic conditions in our country creates great uncertainty in such forecasts.

Nevertheless, the opportunities for growth in solar power continue to be substantial.  A new report from the energy research firm Wood Mackenzie looked at the prospects for using the roof space of commercial buildings for solar power.

Currently, just 3.5% of commercial buildings in the U.S. have solar panels on their roofs.  Another 1% of those buildings are attached to solar projects located off-site.  The report looked at how many buildings are potential targets for solar projects.

After accounting for buildings that are too small or that use too little electricity to make solar power a worthwhile investment, the report estimated that 70% of commercial buildings in the U.S. – amounting to some 600,000 sites – are candidates for solar installations.  Doing this would provide 145 GW of new solar capacity, which is nearly twice as much as currently exists in this country. 

Commercial solar installations have their own unique logistical and financial challenges.  While utility solar can scale to lower costs and residential solar has financing opportunities, commercial solar has neither.  But ultimately, it represents an important opportunity for our future energy system.

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U.S. Commercial Rooftops Hold 145 Gigawatts of Untapped Solar Potential

Photo, posted June 25, 2014, courtesy of Rob Baxter via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Renewables Without Storage In Texas

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Texas has a Texas-sized appetite for electricity and relies most heavily on natural gas, coal and nuclear power to get it.  But in recent times, wind power has grown tremendously in the Lone Star State and it has already leapfrogged past nuclear power.  Coal could be the next domino to fall.

In the past few years, solar power has become competitive with wind in terms of price.  Texas is a large, coastal state in the sunny southwestern U.S. and has significant solar resources.  As a result, the amount of solar power in Texas is now growing rapidly.

In order for a combination of solar and wind power to address the bulk of electricity demand in Texas, there needs to be a way to provide reliability that these intermittent sources don’t necessarily provide.  Energy storage is a solution that ultimately is likely to be part of most electricity grids, but currently it is still expensive on a utility scale.

A new study from Rice University looked at the complementarity of solar and wind power in Texas.  Complementarity refers to balancing the output of solar and wind systems.  The peak performance of wind and solar occurs at very different times in different regions of the state.  The study suggests that the right mix of solar and wind systems in the right parts of Texas could provide a continuously reliable energy system.  On both a yearly and daily basis, wind and solar power resources in Texas complement each other in terms of peak performance.  It is a matter of locating the solar power and wind farms in the right places.

With the Texas solar industry really starting to boom, there is a real opportunity to integrate far more renewable energy into the Texas grid.

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More Renewables with Less Energy Storage: Texas Shows How

Photo, posted June 8, 2018, courtesy of Laura Lee Dooley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Growing Use Of Wind And Solar Power

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According to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, solar and wind energy now generate more than 20% of the electricity used in 10 states.  Topping the list is Iowa, which got 37% of its electricity from wind and solar in 2017.  The next three states were Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, all getting more than 30% of their power from the renewables.  The top five states, which adds North Dakota to the list, actually get nearly all of their renewable energy from wind.  In fact, during some months in 2017, Iowa and Kansas both got more than half of their electricity from wind.

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New York’s Solar Boom

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New York Governor Andrew Cuomo recently announced that the state’s support for solar power initiatives has resulted in an 800% increase in industry growth since 2011.   New York’s various renewable energy programs have resulted in $1.5 billion in investments.  The NY-Sun Initiative has produce a 10-fold increase in solar projects in several regions of the state.  The Mohawk Valley led the way with an almost 16-fold increase in solar capacity.

[Read more…] about New York’s Solar Boom

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