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Triple La Niña | Earth Wise

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La Niña is an oceanic phenomenon consisting of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropic Pacific.  It is essentially the opposite of the better-known El Niño.   These sea-surface phenomena affect weather across the globe.  As one oceanographer put it:  when the Pacific speaks, the whole world listens.

There is currently a La Niña underway, and it is the third consecutive northern hemisphere winter that has had one.  This so-called triple-dip event is rather rare.  The only other times they have been recorded over the past 70 years were in 1954-56, 1973-76, and 1998-2001.

La Niñas appear when strong easterly trade winds increase the upwelling of cooler water from the depths of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator.  This causes large-scale cooling of the ocean surface.  The cooler ocean surface modifies the moisture content of the atmosphere across the Pacific and can cause shifts in the path of jet streams that intensifies rainfall in some places and causes droughts in others.

These weather effects tend to include floods in northern Australia, Indonesia, and southeast Asia and, in contrast, drought in the American southwest.  In North America, cooler and stormier conditions often occur across the Pacific Northwest while the weather becomes warmer across the southern US and northern Mexico.

In the spring, the tropic Pacific essentially resets itself and starts building toward whatever condition will happen in the following winter, be it another La Niña or possibly an El Niño.   For the time being, forecasters expect the current La Niña to persist through February.

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La Niña Times Three

Photo, posted March 10, 2007, courtesy of Gail via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Tepary Beans | Earth Wise

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Tepary beans are an ancient crop native to the northern part of Mexico and the southwestern part of the U.S..  They have been grown in those places by native peoples since pre-Columbian times.  They are still grown in Native American reservations in Arizona’s Sonoran Desert.  One can purchase them from some small farms in that region. 

What sets tepary beans apart from other beans is that they are among the most drought- and heat-tolerant legume crops in the world.  They can be grown without irrigation under conditions that are not viable for other crops.  They can be consumed by people like many other kinds of beans, and they can also provide forage for livestock with better nutrition content than many other plants.  They seem to be a very attractive option for a crop in the changing climate.  What is lacking, at present, is large supplies of tepary seeds to be planted.

Researchers at Texas A&M have been funded to bring tepary beans into modern cropping systems and diets.  The goal is to develop tepary bean cultivars with high biomass and yield that are still well-suited to drought and heat conditions.  Getting the beans to the point of widespread commercialization will take several years.  The end result should be of interest to pulse growers, seed industries, and food companies across the U.S.

Tepary beans are higher in fiber and protein than most other beans.  They come in several different colors, each of which has unique flavor and texture characteristics.  The white ones have a naturally sweet flavor.   The brown beans are slightly nutty in flavor and are similar to pinto beans.  If the Texas program is successful, we may all be eating tepary beans some day.

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Tepary Beans Offer Producers A Low-Input, Climate-Resilient Legume Alternative

Photo, posted August 25, 2017, courtesy of Katja Schulz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Hot July | Earth Wise

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At the beginning of July, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s monthly climate outlook predicted temperatures well above average across much of the United States.  The prediction was quite correct.  Beyond that, world-wide, there were multiple heat waves, especially in Europe and Asia, where there were thousands of heat-related deaths.  On July 19th, the United Kingdom had its hottest day ever reported with a temperature over 104 degrees.

In the U.S., a series of atmospheric high-pressure systems resulted in stagnant heat domes, which resulted in more than 150 million people living under heat warnings and advisories.  Nearly every part of the continental U.S. saw above-average temperatures.  There were record-breaking triple-digit highs in several states, sometimes persisting for days.

The south-central part of the country developed a ridge of high pressure that established a heat dome that acted like a lid, trapping hot air over that area.  The extreme heat persisted throughout the month, at times expanding to the Southwest, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.

In the second half of the month, the Great Plains experienced temperatures as high as 115 degrees.  Utah and Oklahoma both broke long-standing records for the most consecutive days on which temperatures exceeded 100 degrees.  Utah saw 16 straight days over 100.

In the Pacific Northwest temperatures reached 110 degrees in Dallasport, Washington, and 114 in Medford, Oregon.  In the Northeast, Newark, New Jersey saw a record-breaking five straight days over 100 degrees.

In Albany, New York, where the average daily high temperature is 82 degrees in July, there were 10 days in the 90s, with highs of 97 on three occasions.

July was a hot month indeed.

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A July of Extremes

Photo, posted July 10, 2022, courtesy of Dominic Alves via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Spring is Sooner And Warmer In The United States | Earth Wise

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Despite some March snowstorms in the Northeast, the record shows that spring is getting warmer and coming sooner in the United States.

The independent research organization Climate Central analyzed 52 years of spring data across the United States.  Half of the 234 locations studied had an increase in their average spring temperatures of at least 2 degrees.  About 70% of the locations had at least 7 extra days above their normal spring temperatures.  About the only part of the country where spring hasn’t gotten much warmer is in the upper Midwest.

Over that time period, the average spring temperature in Albany, NY has increased by 2.1 degrees.  And compared with 1970, there are now 11 more warm spring days in New York’s Capital Region.

Spring warming has been greatest in the Southwest.  The three cities with the largest temperature increases were Reno, Nevada at 6.8 degrees, Las Vegas, Nevada with 6.2 degrees, and El Paso, Texas with 5.9 degrees.

Spring has been arriving early as a result of the warming conditions, cutting into the cold winter months.  While an early spring sounds like nothing but good news, the shift can cause problems.  An early spring and early last freeze can lengthen the growing season.  With it comes the arrival of mosquitoes and pollen and its associated allergy season.

A greater problem is that spring warming can disrupt the timing of ecosystem events.  For example, migratory birds could show up at the wrong time, impacting their food availability and breeding success.

As the overall climate changes, so does the spring.

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2022 Spring Package

Photo, posted March 20, 2011, courtesy of Suzie Tremmel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Dangerous Fire Season | Earth Wise

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The western United States is entering the fire season under much worse drought conditions than last year.  Last year, 15,800 square miles burned in the U.S., mostly in the West.

The western U.S. is in the midst of a 20-year mega-drought.  Rainfall in the Rocky Mountains and farther west was the second lowest on record this April.  The soil in the western half of the country is the driest it has been since 1895.

The situation is particularly bad in California and the Southwest.  In March, less than a third of California was experiencing extreme or exceptional drought.  Now, 73% of the state is.  A year ago, a record-breaking fire season burned 4% of the state and, at that time, only 3% of California was in a state of extreme drought.

A year ago, no parts of Arizona, Nevada, or Utah were in extreme or exceptional drought.  Now, more than 90% of Utah, 86% of Arizona, and 75% of Nevada face severe drought conditions.  At this time last year, only 4% of New Mexico faced extreme drought but 77% does now.

These extreme drought conditions, which are believed to be linked to climate change, are causing increased tree mortality among many species, ranging from junipers in the Southwest even to drought-tolerant blue oaks in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Conditions are extremely ripe for a lot of forest fire this year.  Last year was a terrible year for wildfires in the West and we are heading into a fire season with much drier fuels than there were last year.  The risks of great damage from wildfires are higher than ever.

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US West Enters Fire Season Facing Extremely Dry Conditions

Photo, posted September 18, 2020, courtesy of USFS/National Interagency Fire Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Reduced Air Travel And Weather Forecasts | Earth Wise

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There have been countless stories about the major and minor changes in the world caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.  A few of those changes, such as reductions in pollution and traffic, have been positive.  Most have been decidedly negative.

One of the stranger things that has happened is that the pandemic has affected the quality of weather forecasting by sharply reducing the amount of atmospheric data routinely collected by commercial airliners.

It turns out that atmospheric observations from passenger and cargo flights are among the most important data used in weather forecasting models.  These observations are made by instruments aboard thousands of airliners, mostly based in North America and Europe.  The observation program has been in place for decades.  The data is transmitted in real time to forecasting organizations around the world, including the National Weather Service.  About 40 airlines participate in the program, which has equipment aboard about 3,500 aircraft.  Here in the US, Delta, United, American, and Southwest Airlines participate, as do UPS and FedEx.

During the first few months of the pandemic, air traffic declined by 75% or more worldwide.  As a result, atmospheric observations dropped by the same percentage.  A government research study showed that when weather forecasting models receive less data on temperature, wind, and humidity from aircraft, the accuracy of forecasts was reduced.

The amount of data from aircraft has increased in recent months as air travel has picked up to roughly 50% of pre-pandemic levels.  So, the observation program is on the mend.  Nonetheless, impaired weather forecasting is just another unexpected result of the global pandemic.

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Slump in Air Travel Hindered Weather Forecasting, Study Shows

Photo, posted July 15, 2017, courtesy of Daria Nepriakhina via Flickr. Photo by Photo by Daria / epicantus.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Extreme Heat And Humidity | Earth Wise

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On hot, sticky summer days, one often hears the expression “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” That isn’t just an old saw; it is a recognition of what might be the most underestimated direct, local danger of climate change.   Extreme humid heat events represent a major health risk.

There is an index called “wet-bulb temperature” that is calculated from a combination of temperature and humidity data.  The reading, which is taken from a thermometer covered in a wet cloth, is related to how muggy it feels and indicates how effectively a person sheds heat by sweating.  When the wet-bulb temperature surpasses 95o Fahrenheit, evaporation of sweat is no longer enough for our bodies to regulate their internal temperature.  When people are exposed to these conditions for multiple hours, organ failure and death can result. 

Climate models project that combinations of heat and humidity could reach deadly thresholds for anyone spending several hours outdoors by the end of this century. 

Dangerous extremes only a few degrees below the human tolerance limits – including in parts of the southwestern and southeastern US – have more than doubled in frequency since 1979.  Since then, there have been more than 7,000 occurrences of wet-bulb temperatures above 88o, 250 above 91o, and multiple reading above 95o.  Even at lower wet-bulb temperatures around 80o, people with pre-existing health conditions, the elderly, as well as those performing strenuous outdoor labor and athletic activities, are at high risk.

More research is needed on the factors that generate extreme wet-bulb temperatures as well as the potential impacts on energy, food systems, and human security.

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Dangerous Humid Heat Extremes Occurring Decades Before Expected

Photo, posted April 16, 2012, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Trouble On The Colorado

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The 1450-mile-long Colorado River begins in the Rocky Mountains and wends its way to the Gulf of California, creating the Grand Canyon along the way, and providing water to some 40 million people.  The amount of Colorado River water promised to users is far more than actually flows between its banks, and that amount is dropping.

An unrelenting drought since 2000 has resulted in the water levels of the two largest reservoirs of Colorado River water – Lake Mead and Lake Powell – being at all-time lows.

Lake Mead, just outside of Las Vegas, is the reservoir of Hoover Dam, which provides power for millions of people in Southern California, Nevada, and Arizona.  The last time Lake Mead was full was in 1983.  It has slowly declined and now is 40% full.

If the lake level drops another 7 feet to 1075 feet above sea level, it will trigger a Tier 1 declaration, mandating cuts to water allocations to Arizona and other states.  If the level drops to 1050 feet, it would reach Tier 2 at which point Hoover Dam would have to stop generating electricity because water levels would be too low to flow through it.  If the lake level drops all the way to 895 feet, it would be below the level at which water can be piped out of it.  This is known as the “dead pool”.

These scenarios are no longer doomsday fantasies.  Water managers in the Southwest see the writing on the wall and are busy making contingency plans and developing ways to use less water from the Colorado River.  The booming city of Phoenix in particular is hard at work finding alternative ways to provide water for its millions of citizens.  On the Colorado, drought in the new normal.

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On the Water-Starved Colorado River, Drought Is the New Normal

Photo, posted October 24, 2016, courtesy of Sharon Mollerus via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cold Weather In A Warming Climate

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The climate is warming.  The average global temperature is going up year after year, bringing about significant changes to weather around the world.  But the fact is that these changes don’t always lead to warmer weather.  And ordinary variations in local weather can also go in either direction.

[Read more…] about Cold Weather In A Warming Climate

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