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A record year for solar and batteries

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According to a recent forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, solar panels and batteries will account for more than 80% of new power capacity installed in the U.S. this year.  The record growth of these technologies is hastening the decline of coal power in this country.

Solar power alone will account for more than half of the country’s new power capacity and most of it will be in Texas and California.

Wind power is expected to provide only 12% of new capacity this year.  Wind is facing rising costs, lengthy permitting, public backlash, and clear opposition from the Trump administration which is determined to stifle its growth.

As renewable energy grows, coal power continues to decline.  The U.S. will retire twice as much coal power this year as it did last year, closing about 5% of the country’s capacity.  Not only are older coal plants shutting down; the remaining plants are generating less power.

One of the most significant changes in technology over the last few decades has been the massive drop in the cost of clean energy.  Solar photovoltaic costs have fallen by 90% in the past decade, onshore wind by 70%, and batteries by more than 90%.  The connection between cost reduction and volume has been very strong:  costs of these technologies have fallen by around 20% every time global cumulative capacity doubles.   Over the past 40 years, solar power has transformed from one of the most expensive electricity sources to the cheapest in many countries.  That trend is likely to continue.  Setting politics aside, market forces generally are the strongest driver.

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U.S. Solar and Batteries Headed for Record Year

Photo, posted December 16, 2024, courtesy of Bureau of Land Management California via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The year in energy

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Last year saw some major trends in the global energy sector. Perhaps the most dramatic was the shift to renewable power, which continued to outpace the projections of both financial analysts and industry experts.  2024 saw new highs in renewable installation, largely due to China, which accounted for more than half of all the solar power installed globally.  Huge solar installations also came online in California and Nevada during the year.  On the other hand, the amount of coal burning for the year also exceeded expert predictions, also largely due to China.

A second trend was increasing sales of electric vehicles, which reached a new high, although short of expectations.  A major driving force in EV sales is the dropping price of lithium-ion batteries, which fell by 20% in 2024.  Again, China was a major factor with roughly half of all its domestic vehicle sales being electric.

Coal’s decline is being slowed by the rising demand for electricity.  The increased use of electric heating and cooling along with the increasing use of EVs are major factors.  But the proliferation of energy-hungry data centers incorporating artificial intelligence capabilities is driving up the demand for power even more. 

Perhaps the clearest indication of the future for global energy comes from investors, who put about $2 trillion into clean energy last year.  That is twice as much as invested in oil, coal, and natural gas.

The history of energy has seen the Age of Coal and the Age of Oil.  By all indications, we are now heading into the Age of Electricity.

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The Year in Energy in Four Charts

Photo, posted November 23, 2024, courtesy of Mussi Katz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewables progress

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According to a new report by the International Energy Agency, the world is on track to produce nearly half of the electricity it uses from renewable sources by the end of this decade.  The report also finds that in nearly every country, large wind and solar plants are the cheapest forms of new power.

Between now and 2030, countries will add more than 5,500 gigawatts of new renewable capacity.   That is as much as China, India, the U.S., and the EU combined have at present.  Most of the new capacity will come from solar power.

China is aggressively pursuing renewable power installations with massive solar and wind projects.  By 2030, China will account for nearly half of the world’s renewable power capacity.

This year’s UN Climate Change Conference, held in the United Arab Emirates, established the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030. 

The growth in solar power continues to outperform industry expert projections as manufacturing ramps up.  India and the U.S. are both expected to triple their solar manufacturing capacity by the end of this decade.  Manufacturing, largely based in China, is already outstripping demand.

By 2030, solar and wind power are expected to account for about 30% of global electricity generation, hydropower about 13%, and other renewables such as geothermal power about 5%.

These estimates are based on existing policies and market conditions.  Governments could speed up the shift to clean energy by cutting red tape and by making it cheaper for poorer countries to finance solar and wind projects.

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Renewables 2024

Photo, posted November 23, 2023, courtesy of Rick Obst via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

More wind power than coal power

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The U.S. used to get more of its electricity from burning coal than by any other means.  It wasn’t all that long ago; coal produced 51% of our electricity in 2001. But as of 2022, it was less than 20%.

In March and April, the U.S. generated more electricity from wind power than from coal.  This was the first time that wind outstripped coal for two consecutive months.

This crossover between wind and coal power is just another milestone in the energy transition to renewable energy sources.  Renewables collectively produce more electricity than coal and their share is steadily growing.  The explosive growth in renewable energy is primarily the result of three factors:  federal tax credits, state energy mandates away from fossil fuels, and, most importantly, shifts in the economics of energy.  Breakthroughs in technology and economies of scale have lowered the cost of building new wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage. 

Coal plants have retired at a rapid pace over the past 25 years.  During that time, natural gas capacity has nearly tripled.   Gas began to replace coal starting around 2005 when the fracking boom led to the availability of large quantities of cheap natural gas. Because of this, fossil fuels are still the largest source of electricity generation in the U.S., but that is not likely to be the case for very long.

Analysts expect that wind energy will grow to provide about 35% of the country’s electricity by 2050.  The Department of Energy predicts that solar power will produce 45% of U.S. electricity by that year.

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Wind Beat Coal Two Months in a Row for U.S. Electricity Generation

Photo, posted August 5, 2024, courtesy of Samir Luther via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Where do states get their electricity?

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How the United States produces its electricity has changed dramatically over the past few decades.  Coal used to be the dominant source of power in this country, but natural gas surpassed it in 2016, and coal’s share has been shrinking ever since.  Fossil fuel still generates the majority of America’s electricity, but renewable power is increasing its contribution all the time.

On a state-by-state basis, there are very large variations in the mix of power sources.  Ten states still get their largest amount of power from coal, but this is down from 32 states in 2001.  Four states have hydroelectric power as their largest source, including Vermont which gets more than half of its power that way. 

Texas produces more electricity than any other state by a wide margin.  It’s not just because it has a large population. It is because it uses huge amounts of power to refine petroleum products.  Coal produces only 13% of Texas’ electricity and the state is by far the country’s largest producer of wind power.

New York gets nearly half of its power from natural gas, 21% from hydroelectric power, and 21% from nuclear power.  Wind and solar power are still small, but both are growing in the state.

When people try to assess the climate impact of driving electric cars, based on the origins of the electricity they use to power the car, the results can vary dramatically based on what state they live in.  Nationwide, electricity is getting cleaner and greener, but the process is by no means uniform across the country.

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How Does Your State Make Electricity?

Photo, posted March 17, 2021, courtesy of Bureau of Reclamation via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Clean energy investment at record levels

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According to a new study by the International Energy Agency, global clean energy investment will be nearly twice that of fossil fuels this year.  The surging funding for clean energy is being driven by a combination of lower costs for renewable energy and by improving supply chains.

In 2024, the world’s investments in energy are expected to surpass $3 trillion dollars for the first time.  About $2 trillion of that will be directed at green technologies that include renewable power sources, grids, and energy storage; electric vehicles; low-emission fuels; nuclear power; and heat pumps and efficiency improvements.  The remaining amount of just over $1 trillion will fund oil, gas, and oil projects.

The record growth in clean energy investments is taking place in spite of challenging economic conditions related to high interest rates, which demonstrates the momentum behind the global energy transition.

The IEA report does caution that there are big imbalances and shortages in energy investment in various places around the world.  For example, there is a low amount of green energy spending in developing and emerging economies outside of China.  Countries like Brazil and India are leading the way for this sector by having investments in excess of $300 billion.

More money is currently going into solar power development than all other electricity generation technologies combined.  In 2024, solar photovoltaic power investment is set to grow to $500 billion as the falling price of solar modules spurs new investments.

The largest renewable investments will come from China at $675 billion, followed by Europe and the U.S. at $370 billion and $315 billion, respectively.

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Global Clean Energy Investment Will Nearly Double That of Fossil Fuels in 2024: IEA Report

Photo, posted October 2, 2015, courtesy of John Englart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A surprising drop in renewable power

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Renewable power – which includes wind farms, solar farms, and hydroelectric dams – constitutes over 21% of the country’s utility-scale electricity generation, behind only natural gas power plants at 43%.  Nuclear power provides nearly 19% of our electricity and coal, which is gradually diminishing, is at 16%.

Both solar and wind power capacity have been growing rapidly in recent years and will be providing an increasing percentage of our electricity.  That being said, it turns out that utility-scale renewable electricity generation actually decreased slightly in 2023 as a result of weather-related issues.

Utility-scale renewables generated about 894,000 gigawatt hours of energy last year, which was 0.8% less than the record amount generated in 2022.

The reasons?  The biggest factor was slower wind speeds in the Midwest during the warmer weather months.  In 2023, there were fewer warm fronts and cold fronts passing through the region.  The passage of fronts is often associated with wind and precipitation. 

The other factor affecting renewable generation was a 5.9% drop in hydropower in 2023.  The main reason for the decrease was a drop in water levels at many hydroelectric dams in areas experiencing drought.

Experts explain that there is no reason to overreact to a one-year blip in renewables generation.  All three major sources of power – sun, wind, and hydroelectric – are tied to natural forces and all of them fluctuate over time.  Putting aside minor variations year-over-year, renewable electricity is on pace to more than double by the end of this decade.

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Federal Data Reveals a Surprising Drop in Renewable Power in 2023, as Slow Winds and Drought Took a Toll

Photo, posted July 5, 2014, courtesy of Patrick Finnegan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Peak Natural Gas Generation | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Finance (the IEEFA), the U.S. most likely hit its peak usage of natural gas to generate electricity in 2020.  Growth in wind and solar power are beginning to erode the use of natural gas.

At the moment, natural gas prices are unusually high as a result of supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine.  The U.S. is shipping record amounts of gas to Europe in order to help allies to wean off of Russian gas imports.  As a result, U.S. natural gas prices are at their highest level in more than 13 years.  Heating bills in the Northeast have been exceptionally high this past winter.

These high gas prices have also thrown a temporary lifeline to coal, which has seen a recent surge.  Despite this, coal in the U.S. is continuing its long-term decline.  Several of the largest power companies – including the Tennessee Valley Authority, Duke Energy, and Georgia Power – are planning to phase out coal entirely by 2035 and shift to renewable power.

The surging prices in fossil fuels – at the gas pump and in the home – along with multiple disruptions in energy security, are supercharging the already rapid pace of growth in solar, wind, and battery energy storage projects.

Wind, solar, and hydropower currently account for about 20% of U.S. power generation.  According to the IEEFA, these renewable sources could provide more than a third of our power by 2027.  Including both renewables and nuclear power plants, the U.S. could generate more than half of its electricity from carbon-free sources by that year, which represents a massive transition from just five years ago.

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U.S. May Have Hit Peak Natural Gas Power Generation, Report Says

Photo, posted July 11, 2017, courtesy of John Ciccarelli / BLM via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Big Year For European Solar Power | Earth Wise

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The installed solar capacity in the European Union grew by 34% in 2021.  This means that Europe is on pace to quadruple its solar energy generation by 2030.

During 2021, the 27 countries of the European Union installed 25.9 gigawatts of new solar capacity, compared with 19.3 gigawatts in 2020.  This was the biggest year yet for solar growth, beating out the previous record of 21.4 gigawatts set in 2011.  A gigawatt of solar electricity is enough to power about 300,000 homes, so the 2021 installations can produce enough electricity for about 8 million households.  The European Union is home to about 450 million people.

SolarPower Europe, an industry trade organization, projects that solar energy capacity in the EU will increase from the current 165 gigawatts to 328 gigawatts in 2025 and as much as 672 gigawatts by 2030.

The EU has the goal of generating 45% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, which is an important milestone in achieving climate neutrality by 2050. 

Challenges still facing the EU include obstacles to permitting, electricity grid bottlenecks, and assurance of solar panel supplies.  Much of Europe’s supply of solar panels comes from China.  The EU wants to boost its own production of solar panels to 20 gigawatts per year by 2025.

The US currently has about 113 GW of installed solar capacity and is projected to install about 300 gigawatts of new capacity over the next 10 years.

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For the European Union, 2021 Was a Banner Year for Solar Power

Photo, posted May 3, 2007, courtesy of Bernd Sieker via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Greenhouse Gas Removal And Net Zero | Earth Wise

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Reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions can slow the progress of global warming but only reaching and sustaining net zero global emissions can halt the progress of climate change.

The move to renewable power and the use of electric transport are substantial and essential ways to reduce emissions.  But even if these transitions take place on a rapid timescale, they will not eliminate all emissions.  Many industrial activities and, especially, agriculture will continue to contribute substantial greenhouse gas emissions.   There are efforts to reduce the contributions of these things, but there are no zero-emission substitutes for most of them.

As a result, actually removing CO2 from the atmosphere once it is there is essential to achieve net zero emissions.  If greenhouse gas removal can be scaled up sufficiently, it opens the option of going “net negative”, which would be the ideal way to mitigate and, better still, reverse the effects of climate change.

There are multiple approaches to carbon dioxide removal.  Some are natural, involving ways of capturing and storing carbon in trees, biochar, and peatlands.  Others are technological.  An example is the system that has just gone into operation in Iceland that uses fans, chemicals, and heat to capture CO2 and then mineralize it in volcanic rock.   Another is a system being tested in the UK that captures CO2 from growing biomass and pipes it to storage under the North Sea.

Much of the attention on carbon capture technology is aimed at trapping the emissions from fossil fuel power plants, but the need to remove carbon dioxide that has entered the atmosphere in other ways is ultimately far greater.

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CO2 removal is essential to achieving net zero

Photo, posted August 17, 2013, courtesy of Joshua Mayer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Clean Energy In Rochester | Earth Wise

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New York’s largest community choice clean energy program has been activated in the City of Rochester.   The program, offered by Rochester Community Power, offers 57,000 residences and small businesses access to clean energy from hydropower and wind sources.  It requires customers to opt out rather than enroll in order to provide clean energy to the greatest number of people.

Rochester Community Power is the city’s local community choice aggregation (CCA) program that leverages the collective buying power of participating residents to purchase renewable electricity and negotiate better terms for energy supply contracts.

The program will supply customers with more than 300 million kWh of renewable energy each year, which will avoid the emission of about 250,000 tons of carbon dioxide.  Rochester plans to add a community solar program next year which will provide additional clean energy opportunities, including offering guaranteed savings to thousands of participants in its Home Energy Assistance Program.

The project will be managed by Joule Assets, which is a provider of energy reduction market analysis, tools, and financing. Joule Assets, as program administrator for the Rochester program, managed the competitive bidding process that secured a fixed rate for electricity for the next two years, shielding participating residences and businesses from volatile market prices.

Community choice aggregation programs are local, not-for-profit public agencies that are an alternative to investor-owned utilities.  They give municipalities the ability to make decisions about the procurement, sourcing, and rates for energy for its residents.

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New York activates its largest opt-out 100% renewable energy program

Photo, posted June 25, 2011, courtesy of Paulo Valdivieso via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Lower Power Sector Emissions | Earth Wise

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A combination of factors led to emissions from the U.S. power sector dropping 10% between 2019 and 2020, which was the largest one-year drop measured since annual reports first began being published in 1997.

The coronavirus pandemic was certainly a contributing factor, but the drop in emissions is part of a long-term trend being driven by increasing reliance on renewable energy sources, diminishing use of coal, and improving energy efficiency.

Between 2000 and 2020, power generation from solar, wind, and geothermal generation more than doubled.  Coupled with the declining use of coal power, power sector emissions during that period dropped by 37% even though the U.S. gross domestic product grew by 40% over the same years.   Overall, at this point zero-carbon electricity sources – which include wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower, and nuclear power – provide about 38% of U.S. electricity.

The Biden Administration has set a target of 100% zero-carbon power by the year 2035.  Given that the costs of wind and solar power continue to fall, there are power companies pushing for setting an intermediate goal of 80% clean power by 2030.

According to recent research, the increasingly attractive cost of renewable power along with the job creation associated with it means that reaching at least 90% clean power by the year 2035 could be achieved at no extra cost to consumers.  Being able to separate economic growth from emissions makes it far more likely that the goals of decarbonization can be met without encountering economic resistance. 

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U.S. Power Sector Sees Biggest One-Year Drop in Emissions in More Than Two Decades

Photo, posted June 30, 2019, courtesy of Stephen Strowes via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cutting The Cost Of Energy Storage | Earth Wise

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The cost of both solar and wind power continues to drop making the two renewable energy sources the cheapest way to make electricity in more and more places.  Given the virtually inexhaustible supply of both wind and sun power, these clean electricity sources can in principle meet all our energy needs.  The hang up is that both of them are intermittent sources – the wind doesn’t blow all the time and the sun doesn’t shine all the time.

The solution to the intermittency problem is energy storage.  If energy produced by wind and sun can be stored so it can be made available for use at any time, then the goal of having 100% clean energy can be realized.

Energy storage technology has continued to improve over time and to get cheaper.  The Department of Energy recently announced a new initiative aimed at accelerating both of these trends.

The new program – called Long Duration Storage Shot –  has the goal of reducing the cost of grid-scale, long-duration energy storage by 90% within this decade.

Long-duration energy storage is defined as systems that can store energy for more than ten hours at a time.  Such systems can support a low-cost, reliable, carbon-free electric grid that can supply power even when energy generation is unavailable or lower than demand.  With long-duration storage, solar-generated power can be used at night.

The program will consider multiple types of storage technologies – electrochemical (that is: batteries), mechanical, thermal, chemical carriers, and various combinations thereof.  Any technology that has the potential to meet the necessary duration and cost targets for long-term grid storage are fair game for the program.

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DOE announces goal to cut costs of long-duration energy storage by 90%

Photo, posted October 16, 2017, courtesy of UC Davis College of Engineering via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Positive Tipping Points And Climate | Earth Wise

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A tipping point is a moment when a small change triggers a large and possibly irreversible response.

There has been much discussion of various tipping points that could accelerate climate change in catastrophic ways.  A recent paper from researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK discusses a couple of tipping points that could accelerate positive progress on mitigating climate change.

Electric vehicles account for only 2-3% of new car sales globally. In Norway, this figure is more than 50%, mostly thanks to policies that make electric cars the same price to buy as conventional cars.   According to the Exeter study, when EVs cost the same to manufacture as conventional cars, it will be a global tipping point.  China, the EU, and California together are responsible for half of the world’s car sales and each of these has targets to rapidly decarbonize their economies and policies in place to speed the transition to electric vehicles. 

Decarbonizing electric power is the other potential positive tipping point.  In Europe, carbon taxes on top of increasing renewable energy generation have tipped coal into unprofitability as they have led to the irreversible destruction of coal plants.  Globally, renewables are already generating electricity cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries.  Decarbonizing global power generation would in turn help accelerate decarbonization of large parts of transportation, heating and cooling, and industry.

These potential positive tipping points are by no means inevitable.  Appropriate policies are needed to overcome various barriers to the clean energy transition.  But major changes in transportation and electric power would have a tremendous impact on the global effort to combat climate change.

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Positive ‘tipping points’ offer hope for climate

Photo, posted July 14, 2020, courtesy of Jim Champion via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

New York And Renewables | Earth Wise

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In 2019, New York generated more electricity from renewable sources than all but three other states.  The 39.4 million MWh of renewable electricity generated in New York was the largest of any state east of the Mississippi. 

New York has been a leader in renewable power long before it became a topic of great interest because of its hydroelectric power.  In 2019, 78% of the state’s renewable electricity came from hydropower.  The Robert Moses Niagara hydroelectric plant is the second-largest capacity conventional hydroelectric power plant in the country. 

The three states that generated more renewable electricity than New York are California, Texas, and Washington.  Washington gets 69% of all its electricity generation from its multiple hydroelectric plants which together produce a quarter of all hydroelectric power in the nation.  Texas leads the nation in wind-powered generation and gets over 17% of its in-state generation from wind.  California gets 14% of its power from solar generation, 7% from wind, and over 16% from its own hydroelectric resources.

Wind is the second-largest source of renewable power in New York, accounting for 11% of renewable generation in the state and 3% of total electricity generation.  Solar power is expanding in New York, but the great majority of it is still in the form of small-scale installations on residential and commercial rooftops.

New York’s renewable generation grew from 19% in 2005 to 30% at present.  New York’s Clean Energy Standard adopted in 2015 requires the state to generate 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040.

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New York generated fourth most electricity from renewables of any state in 2019

Photo, posted October 15, 2010, courtesy of michael-swan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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