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Geoengineering could create winners and losers

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Geoengineering – deliberate interventions to alter the climate and curb climate change – is a controversial topic, to say the least.  Once practically considered taboo even to discuss, there in increasing interest in at least exploring various ideas about how to halt or reverse climate change through direct actions that impact global temperatures.

Putting aside the very real concerns about the risks and dangers associated with such action, there is also the issue that climate interventions may create dramatically different effects across the globe, benefitting some areas and adversely affecting others.

A recent study by scientists at Rutgers University tackled this very issue.  Published in the journal Nature Food, it described the results of computer models simulating the impacts of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), which is spraying sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, where it would partially shield the Earth from the Sun, lowering temperatures.

The study looked at 11 different SAI scenarios and found that none of them benefitted everyone.  Uncontrolled global warming favors crop production in cold, high-latitude areas such as Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, and our northern border states.  Moderate amounts of SAI favors food production in the mid-latitudes (such as in the US and Europe.)  Large amounts of intervention favors agricultural production in the tropics. 

Even if geoengineering might not have dire consequences – which is by no means certain – it would create winners and losers.  Nations may have different ideas of what constitutes an optimal global temperature.  So, who gets to decide where to set the global thermostat?  The prospects for conflict loom large. 

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Climate Intervention Technologies May Create Winners and Losers in World Food Supply

Photo, posted November 18, 2021, courtesy of Conall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Sea Level Rise And Global Security | Earth Wise

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Recently, United Nations General Secretary Antonio Guterres addressed the U.N. Security Council on the issue of the security threats created by rising sea levels. In the past, some members of the Security Council – notably Brazil, China, Russia, and at times, India – have argued that the U.N.’s climate program should address such issues and that the Security Council doesn’t have a mandate or the expertise to consider the issue.   The underlying problem is that by addressing the security issues created by rising seas, other sensitive geopolitical issues might come to the forefront.

Guterres’ speech focused on the real possibility that rising seas could disrupt and destabilize global societies unless there is an organized international effort to get ahead of the problem.  Major cities facing serious impacts from rising seas include Cairo, Lagos, Bangkok, Jakarta, Mumbai, Shanghai, Copenhagen, London, Los Angeles, New York, and Buenos Aires, among others.

In all, Guterres said that the danger is most acute for about 900 million people living in low-lying coastal areas.  Some countries, particularly small island developing countries, could disappear entirely.

The world is already facing refugee crises related to politics, warfare, and extreme weather.  The flood of refugees created by rising seas could be biblical in magnitude.

The confluence of climate change and global security is growing steadily.  As the global body primarily responsible for maintaining international peace and security, the U.N. Security Council cannot duck this issue much longer.  It has a critical role to play in building the political will required to address the security challenges looming from rising seas.

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Sea Level Rise Could Drive 1 in 10 People from Their Homes, with Dangerous Implications for International Peace, UN Secretary General Warns

Photo, posted July 19, 2021, courtesy of Face of the World via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Hot Year In Europe | Earth Wise

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This past summer was marked by some devastating heat waves in Europe.  Through November, the UK, Germany, and France have experienced their hottest year on record.

The UK has experienced its warmest year since 1884 and, in fact, all the top ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2002.

In France, the average temperature for the year is a few tenths of a degree higher than the  previous record, which was set in 2020.

In Germany, the first 11 months of the year saw a record for average temperature.  Its previous record was also set in 2020.

All three countries saw a spike in heat-related mortality as result of the summer heatwaves.  England and Wales reported 3,271 excess deaths during the summer.  France reported 2,816 excess deaths during its three heat waves.  In Germany, an estimated 4,500 people died as a result of extreme heat.

There are multiple effects of climate change which include more frequent heat waves in Europe.  A recent study showed that European summers are warming twice as fast as the global average.  In fact, summer temperatures across much of the European continent have already risen by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 2 degrees Celsius, which is the feared level of global climate increase that nations around the world are trying to stave off.

Worldwide, 2022 will rank among the top ten warmest years on record but will most likely not be the warmest.   That being said, the past eight years are on track to be the eight warmest years on record.  The US will also see one of its ten warmest years, although not the warmest.

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UK, Germany, France on Pace for Their Hottest Year on Record

Photo, posted April 23, 2022, courtesy of Jose A. via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Geoengineering Research Plan | Earth Wise

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The 2022 federal appropriations act, signed into law in March, directed the Office of Science and Technology Policy to develop a cross-agency group to coordinate research on climate interventions, in partnership with NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Department of Energy.

The group is tasked with creating a research framework to “provide guidance on transparency, engagement, and risk management for publicly funded work on solar geoengineering research.”  The group is supposed to develop a five-year plan that will define research goals for the field, assess the potential hazards of climate interventions, and evaluate the level of federal funding required to carry out the work.

This marks the first federally coordinated effort of this kind and is especially significant because it contributes to the perception that geoengineering is an appropriate and important area of research as the climate continues to warm.

It is an understatement to say that such research is controversial.  Geoengineering has often been a taboo topic among scientists. There are significant questions about potential environmental side effects and concerns that the impact of any such efforts would be felt unevenly in different parts of the world.  There are challenging questions about global governance , including who should be able to make decisions about any potential deployment of climate interventions and what the goals of such interventions should be.

These are momentous issues to grapple with, but as the threat of climate change grows and nations continue to fail to make rapid progress on emissions, researchers, universities, and nations are increasingly motivated to seriously explore the potential effects of geoengineering approaches.  We can’t hide from the fact that these issues are going to be explored.

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The US government is developing a solar geoengineering research plan

Photo, posted June 28, 2013, courtesy of Fernando Aramburu via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Poverty And Climate Change

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According to the World Health Organization, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 extra deaths per year between 2030 and 2050.  But climate change does not affect everyone the same.  In fact, the poorest people on the planet, who are often the least to blame for climate change, typically bear the worst of the impact.

Wealthier people and countries have more resources to shield themselves from the impacts of climate change.  For example, higher incomes allow people to purchase air conditioning as temperatures rise,  food as food prices soar, and homes in safer places.  Wealthy nations can also compensate citizens when climate change harms livelihoods. 

According to new research, people with lower incomes are exposed to heat waves for longer periods of time compared to those with higher incomes due to a combination of factors including location and access to heat adaptations like air conditioning.  This inequality is expected to increase as temperatures rise. 

The study, which was published in the AGU journal Earth’s Future, found that lower income populations face a 40% higher exposure to heat waves than people with higher incomes.  By the end of the century, the poorest 25% of the global population will be exposed to heat waves at a rate equivalent to the rest of the population combined.

On the other hand, the highest-income quarter of the population will experience comparatively little change in exposure to heat waves as their ability to keep up with climate change is generally greater.

The research team hopes its findings will prompt innovations into affordable cooling solutions for the world’s most vulnerable population. 

Climate change and poverty are, and will remain, inextricably linked. 

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Poorest people bear growing burden of heat waves as temperatures rise

Photo, posted October 27, 2019, courtesy of Jack via Flickr.

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Melting Himalayan Glaciers | Earth Wise

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The great mountain ranges of central Asia, including the Himalayas, contain the third-largest deposit of ice and snow in the world, trailing only Antarctica and the Arctic.  The Himalayan range contains about 15,000 glaciers, and is part of a region widely referred to as the Third Pole due to its extraordinary reserves of freshwater.

But in recent years, scientists have observed an increase in the rate of Himalayan glacier loss.  According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Leeds in the UK, the accelerating melting of the Himalayan glaciers threatens the water supply of millions of people in Asia. 

In the study, researchers reconstructed the reach of the Himalayan glaciers during the Little Ice Age, which was the last major glacier expansion 400-700 years ago. They found that these glaciers began losing ice 10 times faster during the modern era.  In fact, the glaciers have shrunk from a peak of nearly 11,000 square miles to around 7,500 square miles today.   

This exceptional acceleration of melting of the Himalayan glaciers could have significant implications.  Hundreds of millions of people rely on Asia’s major river systems for food and energy, and depend on these glaciers to feed rivers during the dry seasons.  These rivers include the Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Indus.  The changing global climate could disastrously impact water resources and livelihoods of the Greater Himalayan region.

According to the research team, people living in these regions have already seen changes that are unlike anything witnessed for centuries.  This study is the latest to confirm that these changes are accelerating and pose a significant threat to entire nations and regions. 

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Himalayan glaciers melting at ‘exceptional rate’

Photo, posted March 13, 2018, courtesy of Sarunas Burdulis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Not Such Climate Champions | Earth Wise

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The goal of the Paris Climate Accord is to limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and if possible to stay as close as close to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  Nations around the world have made commitments to drastically reduce their carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels that are in large part responsible for the rising temperatures.

There are a number of countries that proudly claim to be leading the world in the fight against climate change but who are actually still a major part of the problem.  Among these are Norway, the UK, and Canada.

Norway powers its streetlamps with renewables, runs its public transportation system entirely by renewable energy, and leads the world in the adoption of electric cars.  Both the UK and Canada have set ambitious targets for emissions reductions leading to zero net emissions by 2050. 

The problem is that under the Paris Agreement, each country is only responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions produced within its territory.  That means that the UK, Canada, and Norway (like many other countries) don’t need to worry about the emissions caused by the burning of their oil, gas, and coal in other places around the world.

Norway’s annual domestic emissions reached about 53 million tons in 2017 according to its government.  The emissions from the oil and gas Norway sold abroad reached roughly 470 million tons in 2017.  Canada has huge proven oil reserves it is exploiting.

Canada, Norway, and the UK all plan to keep producing fossil fuels, investing in new fossil fuel projects, and explorations.  As long as this continues, these countries are not really climate champions; they are climate hypocrites.

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Norway, the UK and Canada are not climate champions. They are climate hypocrites

Photo, posted September 4, 2008, courtesy of Statkraft via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Sharks On The Decline | Earth Wise

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During the past 70 years, global shark populations have been on the decline.   Many species have become threatened or endangered.  Conservation efforts have been underway in many places, but shark populations continue to be at risk because of over-fishing and habitat loss.

A comprehensive study by marine biologists at Texas A&M University deployed more than 15,000 baited remote underwater video stations on 371 coral reefs in 58 countries.   The study included 59 different shark species in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.  The researchers were surprised to find that no sharks at all were detected in almost 20% of the locations surveyed and were almost completely absent from coral reefs in several nations. 

Scientists believe that demand for shark products, such as fins and meat, and bycatch (that is, sharks captured in nets by fisherman trapping other kinds of fish) are strong contributors to the widespread declines in shark numbers around the world.

The study shows that if corrective steps are not taken in regions where marine management is still ineffective, continued depletion of shark populations is highly likely. 

Sharks have important roles in marine ecosystems.  When their habitats deteriorate and their populations decrease, ecosystem stability and health is degraded because sharks help regulate prey populations.

Some countries, notably the Bahamas, are combating the problem by providing sanctuaries for sharks where fishing and harvesting is prohibited.  Such places support some of the healthiest shark populations in the world.  However, the decline of coral reefs is just another challenge facing shark populations around the world.

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Study Shows Alarming Decline In Shark Numbers Around The World

Photo, posted January 9, 2017, courtesy of Kris-Mikael Krister via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Can Cheetahs Survive?

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A new study has revealed that the global population of the world’s fastest land animal – the cheetah – is down to only 7,100, a drop of 50% over the past 40 years.  The dramatic decline in cheetah population could soon lead to the extinction of the species unless urgent conservation efforts are made.

[Read more…] about Can Cheetahs Survive?

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