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Carbon dioxide and wildfires

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Climate change is a key factor in the increasing risk and extent of wildfires.  Wildfires require the alignment of several factors, including humidity, temperature, and the lack of moisture in fuels, such as trees, shrubs, and grasses.  All of these factors have strong ties to climate variability and climate change.

While the global surge in wildfires is often attributed to hotter and drier conditions, a new study by researchers from the University of California – Riverside has found that increasing levels of a greenhouse gas may be an even bigger factor. 

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, carbon dioxide is driving an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires by fueling the growth of plants that become kindling.

Centuries of burning fossil fuels to produce heat, electricity and to power engines has added alarming amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.  In fact, atmospheric CO2 levels are measuring more than 420 parts per million, which is a level not seen on earth for 14-16 million years. 

Plants require carbon dioxide, along with sunlight and water, for photosynthesis.  But rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are driving an increase in plant photosynthesis – an effect known as the carbon fertilization effect.  This effect can make plants grow bigger and faster. 

Warming and drying are important fire factors.  These are the conditions that make the extra plant mass more flammable.  But the study found that the increase in fires during hotter seasons is driven by the CO2-fueled growth of plants.   

The researchers hope their findings will urge policymakers to focus on reducing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

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CO2 worsens wildfires by helping plants grow

Current carbon dioxide levels last seen 14 million years ago

Photo, posted January 17, 2024, courtesy of Jennifer Myslivy, BLM Fire/NIFC via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate change and Antarctic meteorites

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Researchers from Switzerland and Belgium have investigated the effects of the warming climate on access to meteorites in Antarctica.  Meteorites are of great scientific interest because they provide unique information about the makeup of our solar system.  Of all the meteorites that people have found, 62.6% of them were found in Antarctica.

Why is this?  It is not because more meteorites land in Antarctica.  Statistically, they can land anywhere on earth.  Most end up in the ocean since the world’s oceans cover 70% of the planet. 

Meteorites in Antarctica are more visible because environmental conditions are favorable for their preservation and their visibility.  The arid and cold Antarctic environment helps to preserve meteorites and the lack of rocks and contrast with ice makes spotting meteorites much easier.  The flow of ice sheets tends to concentrate meteorites in so-called meteorite stranding zones where the dark colored space rocks can be easily detected.

There are an estimated 300,000 to 800,000 meteorites in Antarctica.  When meteorites warm up, they can transfer heat to the ice, which locally melts.  Eventually, the meteorites sink beneath the surface.  A recent study using satellite imagery, climate model projections, and AI predicts that for every tenth of a degree of increase in global air temperature, an average of 9,000 meteorites in Antarctica will disappear from the surface and will no longer be able to be found. 

The study estimates that a quarter of Antarctic meteorites will be lost to glacial melt by 2050.  If warming continues to accelerate, closer to three-quarters of the meteorites on the continent will be lost. 

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Climate change threatens Antarctic meteorites

Photo, posted April 21, 2005, courtesy of Kevin Walsh via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How to make cities cooler

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In cities, the air, surface, and soil temperatures are almost always warmer than in rural areas. This is known as the urban heat island effect.  Urban heat islands occur when cities replace natural land cover with dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat.

Urban planners around the world have been researching ways to reduce the effects of heat in cities.  For example, trees, green roofs, and vegetation can help reduce urban heat island effects by shading building surfaces, deflecting radiation from the sun, and releasing moisture into the atmosphere.

A new study led by researchers from the University of Surrey in the U.K. has analyzed how well various green spaces and waterways are able to cool down cities.  The study, which was recently published in the journal The Innovation, found that wetlands, parks, and even botanical gardens are among the best ways to keep cities cool.   

In fact, the researchers found that botanical gardens can cool city air by a whopping 9°F during heatwaves on average.  Wetlands can cool city air by 8.5°F on average, followed by rain gardens at 8.1°F, green walls at 7.4°F, street trees at 6.8°F, city farms at 6.3°F, city parks at 5.8°F, and reservoirs and playgrounds at 5.2°F. 

The researchers also found that cities can unlock even greater benefits by connecting green spaces into green corridors.  Greening projects can also help remove carbon emissions and prevent flooding.

The research team hopes its findings will help urban planners design more resilient cities. 

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Wetlands, parks and even botanical gardens among the best ways to cool cities during heatwaves

Photo, posted April 25, 2022, courtesy of Catherine Poh Huay Tan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Greenland is greening

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Despite their names, Iceland is very green, and Greenland is very icy.  But in Greenland, that is changing.  Temperatures in the world’s largest island are rising twice as fast as they are in the rest of the world and, as a result, the icy rocky landscape is turning increasingly green.

Satellite records reveal that over the last three decades Greenland has lost 11,000 square miles of ice, which is an area about the size of Massachusetts.  As the ice melts off, tundra and shrublands takes its place.  The ice melt moves sediment and silt and eventually wetlands and fenlands are formed.

Between the late 1980s and the late 2010s, the areas of Greenland covered by vegetation have more than doubled.  The new green areas cover roughly 33,000 square miles, which is an area the size of Maine.

Greenland’s dramatic changes are the result of the warming climate, but in turn, those changes are accelerating climate change.  Land covered with dark green vegetation absorbs more energy from the sun thereby warming the air whereas ice-covered landscapes reflect much of the sun’s energy back into space.  In addition, the rapidly expanding wetlands are a significant source of methane, which traps even more heat in the atmosphere.

Greenland is a poster child for the effects of climate change.  Its glaciers and icecaps are shrinking, glacier-fed lakes are expanding, permafrost lakes are draining, and rivers are transporting vast amounts of sediment and widening.  All of this is going on as its vegetation cover and species diversity is expanding.

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In Icy Greenland, Area Covered by Vegetation Has More Than Doubled in Size

Photo, posted September 20, 2019, courtesy of Amanda via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Iceland power

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Iceland burns very little fossil fuel to power its economy and heat its homes.  About 85% of its energy comes from geothermal power and hydropower.  Its unique geology provides it with the highest percentage of renewable energy in the world.  The fossil fuel that Iceland does burn is primarily used to power cars and trucks as well as boats in its fishing fleet.  And Iceland is rapidly embracing the use of electric vehicles.

Iceland can make far more electricity than its 373,000 people can use.  The majority of its electricity is essentially exported as bars of aluminum.  Iceland is one of the world’s largest refiners of aluminum.  The aluminum ore comes from other countries but gets shipped to Iceland where electricity is cheap.  Refining aluminum is so energy-intensive that some say that aluminum is basically just pure electricity in solid metal form.

Electricity-rich Iceland is finding other ways to make use of its resources.  There is a proposed project called Icelink, which is an electricity interconnector between Iceland and Great Britain.  The high-voltage direct current link would run between 620 and 750 miles and would be the longest sub-sea power interconnector in the world.  It is controversial in Iceland and it may or may not happen.

Another technology that is establishing an early foothold in Iceland is carbon capture.  An Icelandic company called Carbix is doing leading work on taking captured carbon dioxide and sequestering it underground.  Capturing and storing carbon dioxide is energy-intensive and the promise of cheap, clean geothermal power makes Iceland an attractive place to do it.

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Iceland Is Living in our Future

Photo, posted July 2, 2012, courtesy of  Emily Qualey / PopTech via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A wet January

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For the first time in a while, the monthly report on the US climate did not feature record-setting heat.  The average January temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 1.6 degrees above the average, but that only ranked it in the middle third of the climate record.  The diminishing El Niño probably helped.  On the other hand, the global average temperature in January was again the warmest on record – the 8th consecutive record-setting month.

But January still managed to be atypical weatherwise in the U.S. in that the nation’s average precipitation across the country was 3.18 inches – nearly an inch above average – which made it the 10th wettest January in NOAA’s 130-year climate record.  Thirteen states experienced top-ten rainfall amounts.  In late January, record rainfall and flooding hit the southern plains, especially in parts of Texas and Louisiana.  Meanwhile, early February brought historic rainfall and mountain snow to California with a second round later in the month.

All of the rainfall in January has made some difference to drought conditions across the country.  On January 30th, about 23.5% of the contiguous U.S. was In drought, which was 9.5% lower than the beginning of the month.  However, drought conditions expanded or intensified across northern parts of the Rockies and Plains among a few other places.

Outside of the lower-48, Alaska continued to experience historic snowfall conditions.  Between October and the end of January, Anchorage had over 100 inches of snow.

We are living in an era of weather extremes.

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The nation just saw its 10th-wettest January on record

Photo, posted February 8, 2017, courtesy of Paxson Woelber via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why was 2023 so hot?

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Five separate weather-tracking organizations have proclaimed 2023 as the hottest year on record. They all agreed that 2023 beat the previous record-holder – 2016 – by a wide margin.  Organizations that use a pre-industrial baseline of 1850-1900 found that 2023 was 1.45 to 1.48 degrees Celsius above the baseline.  But what caused 2023 – especially the second half of it – to be so hot?

Scientists believe that there were multiple factors that contributed to the record-breaking heat.

First and foremost is the long-term rise in greenhouse gases.  Over 100 years of burning fossil fuels along with major changes in land use (particularly deforestation) have led to a significant rise in the heat-trapping blanket of the gases in the atmosphere.

On top of this long-term trend, the return of the El Niño condition in the Pacific in May helped temperatures rise further.

At the same time, the tropical Pacific was not the only ocean that was hotter than normal.  The global sea surface temperature set new records in 2023 and there were multiple marine heat waves.  Heat trapped by the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, raising their temperatures.

Another factor is the quantity of aerosols in the atmosphere.  Many of these aerosols actually cool the atmosphere by reflecting the sun’s light back into space.  Society’s efforts to reduce air pollution and improve air quality have led to decreasing levels of aerosols.

2024 started with some seriously cold weather in some places but predictions are that this year will be roughly as warm as 2023 and possibly warmer given that the dynamics driving last year’s weather are all still in place.

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Five Factors to Explain the Record Heat in 2023

Photo, posted February 22, 2016, courtesy of Jasmin Toubi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Thousands of species threatened

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The International Union for the Conservation of Nature is an organization working in the field of nature conservation and sustainable use of natural resources.  The IUCN has been around for nearly 75 years and is the global authority on the status of the natural world and the measures needed to safeguard it.

In its latest accounting, the IUCN has determined that more than 44,000 species worldwide are threatened with extinction.  Among them, nearly 7,000 face an immediate threat from climate change.

The organization tracks 157,000 species to compile its Red List and found that climate change poses a growing threat to many kinds of wildlife. At particular risk are freshwater fish including Atlantic salmon, which are now classified as “Near Threatened.” 

In all, about 25% of freshwater fish are threatened with extinction.  This is in part driven by rising sea levels which causes saltwater to be driven up into rivers.  Some 41% of amphibians are threatened with extinction, in part due to more intense heat and drought.  Many populations of green turtles are at risk of extinction because of rising temperatures lowering hatch rates and rising sea levels flooding nests.

It isn’t just animals at risk.  For example, big leaf mahogany, one of the world’s most commercially sought-after timber trees, has moved from Vulnerable to Endangered on IUCN’s Red List.  Thousands of trees have been added to the Red List, many of which are timber species, and some are keystone species in forests.

Endangered and threatened species are often irreplaceable parts of ecosystems which provide humans with many services that only the natural world can.

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More Than 44,000 Species Now Threatened With Extinction

Photo, posted November 22, 2010, courtesy of E. Peter Steenstra/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Solar forests

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Forests are one of the most iconic symbols of the power and diversity of nature but beyond that, their thick vegetation is crucial to the stability and balance of the Earth’s climate.  This is because the photosynthesis that powers the growth of plants removes carbon dioxide from the air.  Cutting down forests – especially the evergreen forests of the tropics – has played a significant role in the increasing climate crisis.  For this reason, many environmental initiatives focus on restoring destroyed forests and planting new trees.

But the truth is, even if we were to cover the entire surface of the planet with trees, there would still not be enough photosynthesis going on to absorb the huge surplus of carbon dioxide that people have been pumping into the atmosphere for the past 150 years.

A study by the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel looked at the impact of erecting fields of dark covered solar panels – so-called solar forests – that would generate electricity, thereby replacing power stations that use fossil fuels.  But dark fields absorb heat which eventually returns to the atmosphere.

The question is:  what is the best use of a plot of land in terms of the effect on the climate?  Planting a forest or erecting fields of solar panels?

The answer depends on where the land is.  In arid environments, building solar farms is far more effective and practical than planting forests.  But in humid places, forests currently absorb close to a third of humanity’s annual carbon emissions. 

The study concludes that combining planting and rehabilitating forests in humid regions and erecting fields of solar panels in arid regions is the most effective strategy.

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The Solar Forest

Photo, posted December 27, 2015, courtesy of Gerry Machen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

What did the record warmth of 2023 mean?

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2023 was the warmest year in the 174 years of global temperature record-keeping.  According to some analyses, it may have been the warmest year in the past 125,000 years.

There were incredible heatwaves in Arizona and Argentina.  There were relentless wildfires across Canada.  The wintertime ice coverage in the seas surrounding Antarctica was at unprecedented lows

The global temperatures in 2023 did not just beat prior records; they smashed them.  Every month from June through November set all-time monthly temperature records. The US Northeast saw springlike temperatures at the end of the year.  The high temperature in Buffalo, New York on Christmas Day was 58 degrees.

Climate scientists have been predicting the warming trend that has been ongoing over the past several decades.  Indeed, computational models for 2023 called for a warm year.  Various models had a variety of projected temperatures and 2023’s heat was still broadly within the range of what was projected, although certainly at the high end.

The question is whether last year was an indicator that the planet’s warming is accelerating faster than we expect or that it just was a particularly warm year because of cyclical factors such as the El Niño that appeared last spring.

One theory that is being explored is that various types of industrial pollution have previously actually served to cool the atmosphere over time and as those sources are reduced for public health reasons, the warming effects of greenhouse gases have accelerated.

Currently, there is no consensus about why it seems to be getting warmer even faster than many climate models predict.  What there is no doubt about is that it is not a good thing.

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Earth Was Due for Another Year of Record Warmth. But This Warm?

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The hottest year on record

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Barring some sort of massive global deep freeze late in the year, it was increasingly obvious by November that 2023 was going to be the hottest year ever recorded.  After analyzing data that showed the world saw its warmest ever November, experts around the world made the call early in December.

According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, from January to November 2023, global average temperatures were the highest on record – 1.46 degrees Celsius or 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial average.  Given that the Paris Climate Accord has the goal of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, 2023 has been an alarmingly hot year.

November itself was 1.75 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average.  The average surface air temperature for the planet was 14.22 degrees Celsius or about 57.6 degrees Fahrenheit.  Now 57 degrees doesn’t sound all that warm, but we are not accustomed to thinking in terms of the average temperature for the entire planet.  Keep in mind that the planetary average includes Antarctica and the polar north. The year as a whole had six record-breaking months and two record-breaking seasons. 

There is no reason to hope that the warming in 2023 was an anomalous occurrence and that 2024 is apt to be cooler.  With an El Niño in place in the Pacific, the new year might even be warmer than the previous one.  With continued warming, extreme weather events are likely to become even more frequent and intense, exacerbating the damage and loss of life from droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires.

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2023 is officially the hottest year ever recorded, and scientists say “the temperature will keep rising”

Photo, posted June 7, 2012, courtesy of NASA/Kathryn Hansen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

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Solar thermochemical hydrogen

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For decades, there has been talk of the hydrogen economy in which hydrogen would take the place of fossil fuels in a wide range of domestic and industrial applications.  Over time, hydrogen’s potential advantages in some applications have diminished but it is still seen as perhaps the most promising way to decarbonize long-distance truck, ship, and plane transportation as well as many heavy-duty industrial processes.

Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe, but here on Earth, it is tightly bound up in chemical compounds, notably water and hydrocarbons.  Extracting hydrogen from these compounds takes lots of energy.  To date, most hydrogen is produced from fossil fuel sources, resulting in carbon dioxide emissions.  So-called green hydrogen is made by splitting up water into its component elements.

Getting hydrogen from water generally uses electrolysis, which requires lots of electrical power.  That is why it isn’t the standard way to produce hydrogen; it costs too much to pay for all that power.

MIT scientists have been developing a process to make solar thermochemical hydrogen, or STCH.  STCH uses the sun’s heat to split apart water and no other energy source.  An existing source of solar heat drives a thermochemical reaction in which a heated metal surface grabs oxygen from steam and leaves hydrogen behind.  MIT did not invent the concept; their efforts are to make it practical.

Previous STCH designs were only capable of using 7% of incoming solar heat to make hydrogen.  The MIT process may be able to harness up to 40% of the sun’s heat and therefore generate far more hydrogen. 

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MIT design would harness 40 percent of the sun’s heat to produce clean hydrogen fuel

Photo, posted August 23, 2017, courtesy of Evan Lovely via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Too hot for people

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The effort to mitigate the effects of climate change has a goal of keeping the global temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.  To date, the average global temperature has increased by more than 1 degree.  We hear about rising sea levels, powerful storms, and various other alterations in climate and weather patterns.  A new interdisciplinary study by three institutions looked at the impact of surpassing the 1.5-degree level upon people being able to withstand heat and humidity.

Humans can only withstand certain combinations of heat and humidity before their bodies begin to experience heat-related health problems such as heat stroke and heart attacks. 

In human history, temperatures and humidity that exceed human limits have been recorded only a limited number of times and only for a few hours at a time, in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

According to the new study, if global temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the 2.2 billion residents of Pakistan and India’s Indus River Valley, the one billion people living in eastern China, and the 800 million residents of sub-Saharan Africa will annually experience many hours of heat surpassing human tolerance.

If the warming continues further to 3 degrees, heat and humidity levels that surpass human tolerance would affect the Eastern Seaboard and the middle of the US from Florida to New York and from Houston to Chicago.

The worst heat stress will occur in regions that are not wealthy and that are experiencing rapid population growth.  But even wealthy nations will not escape from the expansion of conditions that are too hot for people.

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Climate-driven extreme heat may make parts of Earth too hot for humans

Photo, posted June 28, 2018, courtesy of Ivan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Summers are getting hotter

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Climate scientists have warned for decades that a seemingly small change in the global average temperature can lead to large changes in extreme heat.  So far, the world has warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius (or 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) and that has been enough to cause big changes in summer heat.

This past summer was the hottest on record.  The heat fueled deadly wildfires across the Mediterranean.  Record highs caused Chinese cities to suspend outdoor work.  Weeks of triple-digit temperatures in the U.S. southwest led to heat-related hospitalizations and deaths.

But not every recent summer has been hotter everywhere.  Even this summer saw average or even colder than average temperatures in some places.  But the distribution of summer temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere has shifted dramatically in recent decades.

Less than 1% of summers in the middle of the 20th century were extremely hot for their location.  Over the past decade, more than a quarter of summers were extremely hot for their location.

Between 1950 and 1980, about a third of summers across the hemisphere were near average in temperature; a third were considered cold; a third were hot.  Only a few summers in a few places were either extremely cold or extremely hot.  Over the past decade, the vast majority of summers have either been hot or extremely hot.

We experience summer weather in the location where we spend our time, and it is entirely possible that our own experience may have been unremarkable.  We may even have had a cool, rainy summer.  But on a global scale, summers are getting hotter and hotter and making it harder to ignore what is happening to our planet.

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It’s Not Your Imagination. Summers Are Getting Hotter.

Photo, posted August 21, 2022, courtesy of Bonnie Moreland via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Enhanced Geothermal Energy | Earth Wise

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Steam produced by underground heat is an excellent source of clean energy.  In a few fortunate places around the world – notably Iceland and New Zealand – people have been using this source of power for more than a century.   In the U.S., a few places in the West have access to geothermal energy, and thus it provides roughly half-a-percent of the total U.S. power supply.

There is no shortage of underground heat but tapping into it is not so easy.  Enhanced geothermal energy refers to drilling down to where the rock is hot and injecting water to be heated and thereby provide steam that is then used to generate electricity.  According to the Department of Energy, there is enough energy in the rocks below the surface of the US to power the entire country five times over.

Recently, in northern Nevada, a company called Fervo Energy successfully operated an enhanced geothermal system called Project Red that generated 3.5 megawatts of clean electricity, the largest enhanced geothermal plant ever demonstrated.

There are now multiple start-up companies pursuing enhanced geothermal energy and the reason is somewhat ironic.  Much of the research and development needed for new geothermal technologies has already been done by the oil and gas industry for their own purposes  – notably fracking.  Those industries have gotten extremely skilled at drilling into rock and such skills are what are needed for enhanced geothermal technology.

Enhanced geothermal faces some of the same challenges as drilling for gas, such as intensive water use and potential triggering of earthquakes.  There are also issues related to permitting.  But the urgent need for more sources of clean energy has made enhanced geothermal energy a potentially very valuable addition to our energy portfolio.

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Enhanced Geothermal Could Be A Missing Piece Of America’s Climate Puzzle

Photo, posted October 12, 2022, courtesy of David Stanley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Hottest Summer | Earth Wise

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It was a very rainy and relatively cool summer in much of New England as well as in New York’s Capital Region, where Earth Wise originates.  Despite that fact, according to NASA scientists, the summer of 2023 was the Earth’s hottest since global record keeping began in 1880.

The months of June, July, and August taken together were .41 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than any other summer on record as well as being 2.1 degrees warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980.

The record summer heat was marked by heatwaves in South America, Japan, Europe, and the US.  The heat exacerbated wildfires in Canada that dumped smoke across much of the northern tier of our country and also led to severe rainfall in Europe.  All sorts of temperature records were set in places across the globe.

According to NASA, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures, fueled in part by the reemergence of El Niño in the Pacific, were a major factor in the summer’s record warmth.

The record-breaking heat of this summer continues a long-term trend of warming.  Scientists around the world have been tracking the warming that is driven primarily by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.  The combination of this background warming and the marine heatwaves set the stage for new temperature records.  The El Niño was enough to tip the scales. 

In the current environment, heat waves will last longer, be hotter, and be more punishing.  The atmosphere can hold more water producing hot and humid conditions that are harder for the human body to endure.

Scientists are expecting the biggest impacts of El Niño in the early parts of next year.  We can expect to see extreme weather of many kinds over the next year.

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NASA Announces Summer 2023 Hottest on Record

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Deadly Heatwaves On The Rise | Earth Wise

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The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

A new study by the ETH Institute in Zurich has found that the risk of fatal heatwaves has risen sharply over the past 20 years, and in the future, such extreme weather will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase, particularly in Europe.  According to a paper published in Nature Medicine, more than 61,000 deaths in Europe could be blamed on the heat during the summer of 2022, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent.  When the readings from this summer are analyzed, that record is likely to be surpassed.

Heatwaves lead to excess deaths due to dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular collapse.  They are particularly deadly for the elderly, the sick, and the poor.  The ETH researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 748 cities and communities in 47 countries.   They determined the relationship between increased temperature and excess mortality.  Their models look at how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), and both 1.5 degrees (the limit sought by the Paris Agreement) and 2 degrees.

Even with the current global temperature, heatwaves that were a once-in-a-century event are now expected to occur every 10 years.  With 2 degrees of warming, such heatwaves could happen every 2 to 5 years.

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Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more deadly

Photo, posted July 22, 2009, courtesy of Matt McGee via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Top Fish Predators And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Climate change is taking its toll on forests, farms, freshwater sources, and the economy, but ocean ecosystems remain the epicenter of global warming.  In fact, oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions since the 1970s.

As a result, many marine fish species are responding to ocean warming by relocating towards the poles.  According to new research recently published in the journal Science Advances, climate change is causing widespread habitat loss for some of the ocean’s top fish predators, driving these species northward.

The research team studied 12 species of highly migratory fish predators, including sharks, tuna, and billfish, such as marlin and swordfish, inhabiting the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.  These two regions are undergoing rapid changes in sea surface temperatures, and are among the fastest warming ocean regions on earth.

The research, which was led by researchers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, with collaboration from San Diego State University, NOAA, and several other U.S. institutions, found that most species will encounter widespread habitat losses by 2100.  Some species could lose upwards of 70% of suitable habitat by that year.  Areas offshore of the Southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic coasts were identified as likely hotspots of multi-species habitat loss. 

According to the researchers, strategies for managing fish have historically been static. But marine systems need to be treated as dynamic and changing.  This study helps provide the scientific data needed for marine conservation and fisheries management efforts.

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Top fish predators could suffer wide loss of suitable habitat by 2100 due to climate change

Photo, posted March 18, 2015, courtesy of Kenneth Hagemeyer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Saving Florida’s Corals | Earth Wise

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When corals are exposed to extended periods of excess heat, they are subject to bleaching, which occurs when they expel the algae that live within their structure.  Bleaching can lead to coral death.

This summer, temperatures in the Florida Keys crossed the bleaching threshold in mid-June and remained above it for extended periods of time.  This cumulative heat exposure leads to widespread bleaching and significant die-offs.  The last major mass bleaching event in the Florida Keys occurred in 2014 and 2015.

The Coral Restoration Foundation has been receiving reports ranging from partial bleaching to mass coral mortality throughout the keys.  Several coral restoration sites in the lower Keys have been totally lost already.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its state agency, university, and non-profit partners have initiated actions to try to save Florida’s corals.

They have halted all restoration-related planting and are evacuating some of their nursery-grown stock to climate-controlled labs.  They are considering interventions such as shading coral nurseries or even high-value reef sites.  They are also considering feeding nursery and wild corals until the waters cool off enough for algae to return.

Modeling indicates that there is a 70-100% chance that the extreme heat in the North Atlantic will persist through September-October.  NOAA and its partners will continue to do what they can to save Florida’s Coral Reef for the marine and human communities that depend on them.

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NOAA and partners race to rescue remaining Florida corals from historic ocean heat wave

Photo, posted April 19, 2012, courtesy of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Southeast Region via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why Was the Summer So Hot? | Earth Wise

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Many places around the world have experienced extraordinary heat waves this summer.  The 31 days of high temperatures 110 degrees or more in Phoenix is a prime example but many other places suffered from extreme and relentless heat.  Why did this happen?

The overarching reason is climate change, which has warmed the Earth by 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit since the preindustrial era.  This change on a global level is enough to make heatwaves far more likely.  For example, the concurrent heatwaves in Europe and North America were 1000 times more likely to have occurred because of climate change.

But there hasn’t been a sudden increase in global temperature that would make this summer so much hotter.  Instead, what really has happened is three other factors all came into play at the same time.

The first is the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai, which is an underwater volcano in the South Pacific.  That eruption did not produce much in the way of planet-cooling aerosols in the atmosphere.  Instead, it vaporized huge amounts of seawater, sending water vapor into the atmosphere, which helps trap heat.

The second is a change in the amount of energy radiating from the sun.  That actually rises and falls a small amount every 11 years.  Currently, it is in the upswing and will reach its next peak in 2025.

Finally, there is the arrival of the El Niño in the Pacific, whose balmy ocean waters radiate heat into the air.

The combination of all these factors when added to the already warming climate is a recipe for temperatures to soar to uncharted highs.  We can expect more heat waves, forest fires, flash floods, and other sorts of extreme weather.

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It’s Not Just Climate Change: Three Other Factors Driving This Summer’s Extreme Heat

Photo, posted February 27, 2017, courtesy of Giuseppe Milo via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)