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Have We Reached Peak Internal Combustion Engine? | Earth Wise

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According to new analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, global sales of gas-powered cars may well have peaked in 2017, representing a significant milestone in the transition to electric vehicles.

Demand for gas cars dropped in 2018 and 2019, and then plummeted in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.  While sales are surely picking up as the pandemic ebbs, the increasing demand (and supply as well) for plug-in vehicles is likely to put gas-powered cars in a state of permanent decline.

Global EV sales are projected to go from 3.1 million last year to 14 million in 2025.  The growth is being driven by falling battery prices, government policies, and increasing choices of vehicles.  Virtually all automobile manufacturers are introducing electric vehicles over the next couple of years and increasing numbers of them are planning a complete transition to EVs in the near future.  Projections are that EVs will account for the majority of new car sales by 2035.

While all this progress is encouraging, there are still over a billion gas- and diesel-powered cars on the road and the fleet turns over slowly.  The current average operating life of cars here in the US is 12 years.

To reach the net-zero carbon emission goals by 2050 as many governments have mandated, additional policies and regulations will be needed.  For example, electric cars will need to account for essentially all new sales by 2035, not just the majority.  Reaching net-zero by mid-century will require all hands on deck, including trucks and heavy commercial vehicles that have barely started to become electrified.

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New Analysis Suggests We Have Already Hit Peak Internal Combustion Engine

Photo, posted December 23, 2017, courtesy of Davide Gambino via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Reservoirs | Earth Wise

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A new study by researchers from Washington State University and the University of Quebec at Montreal looked at greenhouse gas emissions from water reservoirs.  It is perhaps surprising to think that water reservoirs are a source of greenhouse gas emissions at all, but that much was already known.  The new study found that those emissions are actually around 29% higher than previously thought.

Overall, the researchers found that the world’s water reservoirs annually produce methane, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases at an amount equivalent to 1.07 billion tons of carbon dioxide.   That is a small fraction of the 36 billion tons produced by fossil fuels and other industrial sources, but it is by no means a negligible amount.   In fact, it is more greenhouse gases than emitted by the entire country of Germany, which is the world’s sixth largest emitter.

Decomposing plant matter near the bottom of reservoirs fuels the production of methane, which is far more potent than carbon dioxide in warming the atmosphere.  This methane degassing accounts for about 40% of emissions from reservoirs.

The study is particularly important because it may be possible to reduce methane emissions from reservoirs by selectively only withdrawing water from near the reservoirs’ surface, which tends to be relatively methane-poor compared to greater depths.  In a related study, reducing withdrawal depth by 10 feet in a Malaysian reservoir reduced methane degassing emissions by 92%.

Human-generated greenhouse gas emissions come from a surprisingly wide range of sources and it is worthwhile studying as many of them as possible in the hope of finding additional ways to reduce the total.

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Greenhouse gas emissions from water reservoirs higher than previously expected

Photo, posted July 22, 2016, courtesy of Iain Merchant via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Farming Productivity | Earth Wise

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The future potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on global agricultural systems has been well studied, but how human-caused climate change has already affected the agricultural sector is not as well understood.  But a new study led by researchers at Cornell University and supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the National Science Foundation examined this issue. 

Despite important agricultural breakthroughs in technology, fertilizer use and global trade during the past 60 years, it turns out that the climate crisis is already eroding farm productivity.  According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, global farming productivity is 21% lower than it could have been without climate change.  This is the equivalent of losing approximately seven years of farm productivity increases since the 1960s. 

The researchers developed a model linking annual changes in weather and productivity with output from the latest climate models over six decades to quantify the effect of anthropogenic climate change on what economists call “total factor productivity.” This measure captures the overall productivity of the agricultural sector. 

The research team reviewed 200 variations of the model, but the results remained largely consistent:  anthropogenic climate change is already slowing down global food production.  The researchers say the historical impacts of climate change have been larger in naturally warmer climates, like in parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.   

Climate change is not some distant problem to solve in the future.  It is already having an impact on the planet and it needs to be addressed now.

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Climate change cut global farming productivity 21% since 1960s

Photo, posted October 2, 2013, courtesy of the United Soybean Board via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Fighting Zombie Fires | Earth Wise

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Peat fires are a global threat to both economies and the environment.  They generally burn a smaller area than fast-moving forest fires, but they can burn up to ten times more fuel matter per acre, producing far more smoke and far more carbon emissions.  They ignite very easily, are notoriously difficult to put out, all while releasing as much as 100 times more carbon into the atmosphere than flaming fires.  Some smoldering peat megafires are the largest and longest burning fires on Earth and are responsible for as much as 15% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions.

Peat fires are known as “zombie fires” because of their ability to hide and smolder underground and then reemerge as new flames days or weeks after they were supposedly extinguished.

Firefighters use billions of gallons of water to tackle a peat fire.  For example, fighting the 2008 Evans Road peat fire in North Carolina used up 2 billion gallons of water.  When water alone is used to extinguish peat fires, it tends to create large channels in the soil, which diverts water from nearby smoldering hotspots.  This is one reason that it is so difficult to extinguish a peat fire.

Researchers at Imperial College London have combined water with an environmentally friendly fire suppressant – one already used on flaming wildfires – and tested its use on peat fires.  They found that adding the suppressant to water helped them put out peat fires nearly twice as fast as using water alone, while using only a third to half of the usual amount of water.  The suppressant reduces the surface tension of the liquid, making it less likely to create large channels.  Instead, the liquid flows uniformly through the soil.  This could be an important tool in battling peat fires.

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‘Magical’ fire suppressant kills zombie fires 40% faster than water alone

Photo, posted in August, 2011, courtesy of Chris Lowie / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Rising Seas And Wastewater Leakage | Earth Wise

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Global mean sea level has risen nearly 9 inches since 1880, with over two inches of that over just the last 25 years.  The rising water level is primarily due to two factors:  additional water in the oceans coming from melting glaciers and ice sheets; and the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms.  Climate models estimate that over the course of the century, global sea levels will rise at least a foot even if efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are quite successful and, in the worst case, levels could rise as much as 8 feet.

Faced with this situation, the greatest concerns are, initially, increasing amounts of coastal flooding and erosion and, as things get worse, inundation of coastal regions making many places uninhabitable and creating millions of climate refugees.

Recently, computer modeling studies have focused on an additional imminent problem:  the flooding of coastal wastewater infrastructure, which includes sewer lines and cesspools.

A new study by the University of Hawaii at Manoa is the first to provide direct evidence that tidally driven groundwater inundation of wastewater infrastructure is already occurring in urban Honolulu.  The study shows that higher ocean water levels are leading to wastewater entering storm drains and the coastal ocean.  The result is degradation of coastal water quality and ecological health.

The researchers used chemical tracers to detect groundwater discharge and wastewater present at multiple low-lying areas during spring tides.  During high tides, storm drains become channels for untreated wastewater to flood streets and sidewalks. 

People tend to think of sea-level rise as a future problem, but there are already serious effects going on today that are only going to get worse.

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Sea-level rise drives wastewater leakage to coastal waters

Photo, posted August 23, 2011, courtesy of Eric Tessmer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Prickly Pear As A Sustainable Crop | Earth Wise

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The fruits and pads of opuntia, better known as prickly pear cactus, find their way into people’s diets in many arid and semi-arid places around the world.  In Mexico, the pads are known as nopales and are used in a variety of dishes.  The pears themselves are used in jams, salads, and juices.

A five-year study by the University of Nevada Reno College of Agriculture, Biotechnology & Natural Resources investigated the prospects for cactus pear to become a major crop like soybeans and corn and to help provide a biofuel source.

As the climate changes, dry areas are going to get dryer and drought issues will increasingly affect traditional crops.

The study looked at the particular opuntia species called the spineless cactus pear and found that it had the highest fruit production while using up to 80% less water than some traditional crops.  Cactus pear can be used for both human consumption and livestock feed.  As a perennial crop, once the fruit and pads are harvested for food, the remaining biomass can be used for biofuel production.

Corn and sugar cane are the most utilized bioenergy crops right now, but these use three to six times more water than cactus pear.  The cactus pear productivity is on par with corn and sugar cane, but not only do they use a fraction of the water, they also have higher heat tolerance.

Over 40% of land area around the world is classified as semi-arid or arid.  There is enormous potential for planting cactus for carbon sequestration.  If nothing else, it makes great sense to grow cactus pear crops in abandoned areas that are marginal and may not be suitable for other crops.

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Study shows cactus pear as drought-tolerant crop for sustainable fuel and food

Photo, posted April 16, 2020, courtesy of Kevin Dooley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Pandemic And Global Temperatures | Earth Wise

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The early months of the Covid-19 pandemic last year saw dramatic reductions in travel and many forms of commerce.  With much of human activity greatly curtailed, greenhouse gas emissions were greatly reduced.   And yet, all of that did not slow down global warming: 2020 ended up tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record and atmospheric greenhouse gas levels reached a new high.

In order to understand how this came about, it is necessary to understand the complex climate influences of different types of emissions from power plants, motor vehicles, industrial facilities, and other sources.  The fact is that some types of pollution actually have a cooling effect rather than contributing to global warming.

Tiny industrial pollution particles called aerosols actually make clouds brighter, causing them to reflect away more solar heat from the surface of the planet.   During the drastic shutdown last year, the biggest emissions decline was from the most polluting industries.  The reduction of aerosols had immediate, short-term effects on temperatures.  These types of pollutants are very bad for human health, but when they are present, they do have the effect of reducing temperatures.

It is important to keep in mind that carbon dioxide spreads through the Earth’s atmosphere and stays there for a century or more, trapping heat on a global scale.  Industrial aerosols stay relatively concentrated in the region where they are emitted and are often removed by rain and winds within a few weeks.  So, their cooling effect doesn’t spread very far or last very long.

Overall, the initial pandemic slowdown probably didn’t have any real long-term impact on the climate but over the short term, the effects were not as simple as one might expect.

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Covid-19 Cut Gases That Warm the Globe But a Drop in Other Pollution Boosted Regional Temperatures

Photo, posted July 7, 2020, courtesy of Joey Zanotti via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Positive Tipping Points And Climate | Earth Wise

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A tipping point is a moment when a small change triggers a large and possibly irreversible response.

There has been much discussion of various tipping points that could accelerate climate change in catastrophic ways.  A recent paper from researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK discusses a couple of tipping points that could accelerate positive progress on mitigating climate change.

Electric vehicles account for only 2-3% of new car sales globally. In Norway, this figure is more than 50%, mostly thanks to policies that make electric cars the same price to buy as conventional cars.   According to the Exeter study, when EVs cost the same to manufacture as conventional cars, it will be a global tipping point.  China, the EU, and California together are responsible for half of the world’s car sales and each of these has targets to rapidly decarbonize their economies and policies in place to speed the transition to electric vehicles. 

Decarbonizing electric power is the other potential positive tipping point.  In Europe, carbon taxes on top of increasing renewable energy generation have tipped coal into unprofitability as they have led to the irreversible destruction of coal plants.  Globally, renewables are already generating electricity cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries.  Decarbonizing global power generation would in turn help accelerate decarbonization of large parts of transportation, heating and cooling, and industry.

These potential positive tipping points are by no means inevitable.  Appropriate policies are needed to overcome various barriers to the clean energy transition.  But major changes in transportation and electric power would have a tremendous impact on the global effort to combat climate change.

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Positive ‘tipping points’ offer hope for climate

Photo, posted July 14, 2020, courtesy of Jim Champion via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Caspian Sea And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, global sea levels have been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades.  Sea levels are currently rising about one-eighth of an inch every year.

Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to climate change:  the added water from melting glaciers and ice sheets, and the expansion of seawater as it warms.  While climate change is causing global sea levels to rise, higher temperatures in other regions are having exactly the opposite effect.  The water levels are falling.

According to researchers from the University of Bremen in Germany, the Caspian Sea is a perfect example of how a body of water will change.  While it is named a sea due to its size and high salinity, the Caspian Sea is actually a lake.  In fact, it’s the largest lake in the world.  Its largest inflow is the Volga River and it has no natural connection to the ocean.  Its water level is determined by the proportional influences of inflow, precipitation, and evaporation.  Climate change is causing increased evaporation, which leads to a declining water level. 

According to the research team, the water level of the Caspian Sea could fall by 29 to 59 feet during this century.

The Caspian Sea is surrounded by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia.  It’s an important regional water reservoir, and a biological and commercial center. 

The researchers hope the Caspian Sea will be used as an example in scientific research to assess the vulnerability of other regions to falling water levels.

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Climate crisis is causing lakes to shrink

Photo, posted October 31, 2016, courtesy of Amanderson2 via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Lead Exposure Remains A Persistent Problem | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from UNICEF and the international nonprofit Pure Earth, a staggering number of children – approximately 800 million or one out of every three globally – may have dangerously high levels of lead in their blood.    

Long-term exposure to lead can cause serious health problems, especially in children.  Children are particularly vulnerable because their early years are characterized by rapid growth and brain development. 

Lead is a powerful neurotoxin that can cause damage even at low levels of exposure.  Lead poisoning can be acute, and can cause all sorts of health issues, including stomach pain, brain damage, and even death.  Because lead accumulates in the body over time, lead poisoning can develop slowly. The most common symptom of lead poisoning is lethargy.  Lead exposure can also contribute to a lower IQ and behavioral problems that can last a lifetime.     

Lead is a naturally occurring element found in small amounts in earth’s crust.  But as a result of human activities, lead can be found in all parts of the environment, including the air, soil, and water. 

According to the report, much of the lead poisoning comes from lead-acid batteries that are not properly recycled.  Water pipes, paint, canned foods, makeup, toys, and even contaminated spices can all be sources of lead exposure.  Lead was also previously added to gasoline and traces of this remain in soil samples today. 

The report found that children in low- or middle-income countries, especially in South Asia and among marginalized groups in general, are most vulnerable to lead poisoning. 

Lead exposure remains a dangerous and persistent problem all around the world. 

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The Toxic Truth: Children’s Exposure to Lead Pollution Undermines a Generation of Future Potential

800 million children still exposed to lead

Photo, posted February 11, 2017, courtesy of J. Brew via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Global Decline In Wildlife | Earth Wise

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According to a new report released by the World Wildlife Fund, global populations of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish have declined by 68% in less than half a century. 

The report presents a comprehensive overview of the state of the natural world based on the tracking of almost 21,000 populations of more than 4,000 vertebrate species between 1970 and 2016. 

The report shows that the main cause of the dramatic decline in species populations on land is habitat loss and degradation, which includes deforestation driven by food production.  Additional factors include land-use change and the use and trade of wildlife.

Wildlife populations found in freshwater habitats have suffered a decline of 84%, which is the steepest decline in any biome.

Insect populations have declined rapidly in many places, but most of the information about insects comes from a small number of countries in the northern hemisphere.  There is very little information from large parts of the world, such as Africa, South America, and Asia, where land-use change and agricultural expansion are happening fast.  What happens to insects matters a lot to humanity.  Insects play central roles in the world’s ecosystems as waste processors, pollinators, predators, and prey. 

The report is clear evidence of the damage human activity is doing to the natural world.  Threats to the integrity of ecosystems endanger humans and all of nature.  This is especially apparent in the midst of a global pandemic.  It is now more important than ever to take coordinated global action to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity and wildlife populations across the globe.

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Living Planet Report reveals 68% decline in global wildlife populations since 1970

Photo, posted May 7, 2020, courtesy of Bernard Spragg via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Generating Hydrogen From Poor-Quality Water | Earth Wise

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Hydrogen could be the basis of a complete energy system.  It could be stored and transported and could be used to power vehicles and to generate electricity in power plants.  Proponents of the so-called hydrogen economy contend that hydrogen is the best solution to the global energy challenge.  But among the challenges faced by a hydrogen economy is the development of an efficient and green method to produce hydrogen.

The primary carbon-free method of producing hydrogen is to break down water into its constituent elements – hydrogen and oxygen.  This can be done in a number of ways, notably by using electricity in a process called electrolysis.  A method that seems particularly attractive is to use sunlight as the energy source that breaks down the water molecule.

While there is an abundance of water on our planet, only some of it is suitable for people to drink and consume in other ways.    Much of the accessible water on earth is salty or polluted.  So, a technique to obtain hydrogen from water ideally should work with water that is otherwise of little use to people.

Researchers in Russia and the Czech Republic have recently developed a new material that efficiently generates hydrogen molecules by exposing water – even saltwater or polluted water – to sunlight. 

The new material is a three-layer structure composed of a thin film of gold, an ultra-thin layer of platinum, and a metal-organic framework or MOF of chromium compounds and organic molecules.  The MOF layer acts as a filter that gets rid of impurities.

Experiments have demonstrated that 100 square centimeters of the material can generate half a liter of hydrogen in an hour.  The researchers continue to improve the material and increase its efficiency over a broad range of the solar spectrum.

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New Material Can Generate Hydrogen from Salt and Polluted Water

Photo courtesy of Tomsk Polytechnic University.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Sharks On The Decline | Earth Wise

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During the past 70 years, global shark populations have been on the decline.   Many species have become threatened or endangered.  Conservation efforts have been underway in many places, but shark populations continue to be at risk because of over-fishing and habitat loss.

A comprehensive study by marine biologists at Texas A&M University deployed more than 15,000 baited remote underwater video stations on 371 coral reefs in 58 countries.   The study included 59 different shark species in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.  The researchers were surprised to find that no sharks at all were detected in almost 20% of the locations surveyed and were almost completely absent from coral reefs in several nations. 

Scientists believe that demand for shark products, such as fins and meat, and bycatch (that is, sharks captured in nets by fisherman trapping other kinds of fish) are strong contributors to the widespread declines in shark numbers around the world.

The study shows that if corrective steps are not taken in regions where marine management is still ineffective, continued depletion of shark populations is highly likely. 

Sharks have important roles in marine ecosystems.  When their habitats deteriorate and their populations decrease, ecosystem stability and health is degraded because sharks help regulate prey populations.

Some countries, notably the Bahamas, are combating the problem by providing sanctuaries for sharks where fishing and harvesting is prohibited.  Such places support some of the healthiest shark populations in the world.  However, the decline of coral reefs is just another challenge facing shark populations around the world.

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Study Shows Alarming Decline In Shark Numbers Around The World

Photo, posted January 9, 2017, courtesy of Kris-Mikael Krister via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Hot July | Earth Wise

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The numbers are in and, unsurprisingly, July was a hot month.  July 2020 tied for the second-hottest July on record for the planet, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  In our own backyard, the Northern Hemisphere saw the hottest July ever, breaking the previous record set just last year.

The July 2020 global temperature was 62.06 Fahrenheit, which is 1.66 degrees above the 20th-century average.  The combined land and ocean surface average temperature for the Northern Hemisphere, the highest ever recorded for July, was 2.12 degrees F above average, breaking the previous record by 0.14 degrees.

Record-hot July temperatures were also recorded across parts of southeastern Asia, northern South America, across the west and northern Pacific Ocean, the northern Indian Ocean, and parts of the Caribbean Sea.

The year-to-date global land and ocean surface temperature was the second highest in the 141 years of record keeping at 58.79 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 1.89 degrees F above the 20th-century average. 

So far it is been the hottest year to date on record across a large portion of northern Asia, parts of Europe, China, Mexico, northern South America, as well as the Atlantic, northern Indian and Pacific oceans.

Meanwhile, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic for July 2020 was the smallest ever measured in the 42 years of record-keeping, over 23% below the 1981-2010 average.  July’s Arctic sea ice extent was smaller than the previous record (set last year) by 120,000 square miles, an area roughly the size of New Mexico.

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July 2020 was record hot for N. Hemisphere, 2nd hottest for planet

Photo, posted July 24, 2018, courtesy of Maria Eklund Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The South Pole | Earth Wise

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According to a study led by researchers at Ohio University, the South Pole has warmed more than three times the global average over the past 30 years.  While the warming was driven by natural tropic climate variability, the researchers argue that rising greenhouse gas emissions likely intensified the warming. 

The climate in the antarctic has some of the largest ranges in temperature during the year.  Some regions, like most of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, experienced warming during the late 20th century.  But the South Pole, which is located in the remote and high-altitude interior of the continent, actually cooled until the 1980s.  The South Pole, as the study highlights, has warmed substantially ever since. 

For the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers analyzed climate models and weather station data at the South Pole.  They found that, between 1989 and 2018, the South Pole had warmed by 1.8 degrees Celsius.  This warming trend of 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade is three times the global average. 

According to the study, the robust warming of the Antarctic interior has been mainly driven by the tropics.  Warm ocean temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean have altered the winds in the South Atlantic, increasing the delivery of warm air to the South Pole.  These atmospheric changes are an important part of what’s driving the climate anomalies in the region.

But the researchers argue that the warming trends are unlikely a result of natural climate change alone.  The effects of anthropogenic – or human-caused – climate change in addition to the natural changes have combined to make this one of the strongest warming trends globally.    

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Extreme warming of the South Pole

Photo, posted February 7, 2011, courtesy of Eli Duke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Global Emissions And The Coronavirus Shutdown | Earth Wise

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With so much of industry and personal activity curtailed by coronavirus shutdowns across the globe, it is no surprise that greenhouse gas emissions have declined.  According to new research published in the journal Nature Climate Change, average daily global greenhouse gas emissions declined 17% by early April compared to 2019 levels.

If the reopenings around the world continue and the world actually reaches pre-crisis levels by the middle of June, total CO2 emissions for the year would likely end up lower by about 4%.   If various restrictions continue until the end of the year, total global emissions could decline by 7%.

The study analyzed emissions estimates for three levels of coronavirus shutdowns and across six sectors of the economy.  It looked at trends in 69 countries, all 50 U.S. states, and 30 Chinese provinces, representing in total 86% of the world’s population and 97% of global CO2 emissions.

For the first 4 months of the year, emissions from industry declined 19%, the power sector 7%, and public buildings and commerce 21%, compared to last year.  Unsurprisingly, home energy use actually went up by about 3%.

The findings of this study only represent the effects of a short-lived decline in emissions.  As economies open back up, there is no doubt that greenhouse gas emissions will rise back to pre-Covid-19 levels.

The study also reveals that making real changes in emissions will require more than just behavior changes.  Despite billions of people staying home, companies shut down, planes grounded, and cars off the road, we still managed to pump more than 80% of the usual amount of greenhouse gases into the air for the first quarter of the year.

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Global Emissions Fell 17 Percent Due to Coronavirus Shutdowns

Photo, posted May 7, 2020, courtesy of the MTA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Living In Extreme Heat | Earth Wise

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Global climate change has already left observable effects on the planet.  Glaciers have shrunk, trees are flowering sooner, plant and animal ranges have shifted, and so on. Many effects of climate change that scientists had predicted in the past are now occurring.  The loss of sea ice, intensifying heat waves, and accelerating sea level rise are some examples.

According to a new study recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is going to affect humans earlier, harder, and more widely than previously projected.  The research team found that one billion people will be either displaced or endure insufferable heat for every one degree Celsius rise in global temperatures.  

Under a worst case climate scenario, land that one third of the world’s population currently calls home will be as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara desert within 50 years.  Even under a more optimistic climate outlook, 1.2 billion people will still be exposed to temperatures outside the climate niche in which humans have thrived for at least 6,000 years.

The majority of the human population has always lived in regions where the average annual temperatures were between 43 degrees Fahrenheit and 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  These are ideal temperatures for human health and for food production.  But this temperature range is shrinking and shifting as a result of climate change. 

The study’s authors predict there will be more change in the next 50 years than there has been in the past 6,000 years.  They hope their findings will convince policymakers to accelerate their plans for emissions reductions and other climate mitigation strategies.   

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Future of the human climate niche

One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years – study

Photo, posted November 22, 2008, courtesy of Ronnie Finger via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Renewable Energy And The Post-COVID World | Earth Wise

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As is the case for virtually all sectors of the global economy, the short-term prospects for wind and solar power look pretty grim.  Lockdowns, social distancing requirements, and financial upheavals have put many new projects on ice and have halted production at factories making solar panels and wind turbines.  Sales of home solar have struggled as people have put off spending during the economic slowdown.

Ironically, the shutdowns aimed at reducing the spread of the Coronavirus have led to renewable sources accounting for an increased share of power generation.  Global energy demand has plummeted and, because of the low cost of solar and wind power, sources like coal and nuclear power have been curtailed in favor of the renewables.  The dramatically reduced demand has pushed oil and gas prices to historic lows and has left fossil fuel companies struggling to find storage space for the glut of product.

When the world emerges from the pandemic, the question is whether renewable energy will end up on a faster track than before or will end up in a long-term slowdown.  The answer will depend to large extent on the choices political leaders make.

Leaders will unquestionably be designing economic recovery packages.  Such packages could accelerate the shift towards wind and solar power, or they could prop up the fossil fuel economy.  Unfortunately, leaders are prone to be motivated by lobbyists more than by the greater needs of society.  The global economic upheaval represents a real opportunity to change the pace of efforts to address climate change.  Whether that change is a positive one or a negative one is just another looming question facing society when we emerge from the pandemic.

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How Renewable Energy Could Emerge on Top After the Pandemic

Photo, posted April 12, 2020, courtesy of Jeremy Segrott via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars And The Environment | Earth Wise

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There are articles in the media all the time questioning whether electric cars are really better for the environment than those powered by fossil fuels.  The usual argument is that once emissions from vehicle production and electricity generation are taken into account, electric cars are no greener than gas cars, or even worse for the environment.  Of course, these arguments tend to be made by oil companies and their supporters.

A new study by three European universities looked at this very issue in detail. They carried out a life-cycle assessment in which they not only calculated greenhouse gas emissions generated when using cars, but also in the production chain and waste processing.

Their conclusions are that under current conditions, driving an electric car is better for the climate than conventional gasoline cars in 95% of the world.  The only exceptions are places like Poland, where almost all electricity comes from coal-fired plants.

Average lifetime emissions associated with electric cars are up to 70% lower than gas cars in countries like Sweden and France and about 30% lower in England.

It is important to note than in a few years, even inefficient electric cars will be less emission-intensive than gas cars because electricity generation is becoming less carbon-intensive all the time.  The study projects that by 2050, half of the world’s cars will be electric resulting in carbon dioxide emission reductions of 1.5 billion tons.

The study states that the idea that electric cars could increase emissions is a myth.  The detailed study has run the numbers for all around the world and even in the worst-case scenario, there would be a reduction in emissions in almost all cases.

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Electric cars better for climate in 95% of the world

Photo, posted February 13, 2019, courtesy of Guillaume Vachey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Why The Arctic Is Warming So Fast | Earth Wise

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The Arctic has been warming at the fastest rate of any place on Earth.  There have long been observations of amplification of Arctic warming, meaning that its temperature increases have been well above what would be expected from the global temperature rise.

Many climate models have attributed this warming to the melting of sea ice.  As the bright white ice disappears for longer periods of the year, the dark surface waters that are exposed absorb sunlight rather than reflecting it back into space the way the ice does.  This is known as the ice-albedo feedback.  But it does not entirely explain the amount of warming in the Arctic.

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory that helps to explain what is going on.

In the areas of the Arctic Ocean where there is sea ice, the water is actually warmer at depth and colder near the surface.  The deeper waters are fed by the relatively warm Pacific and Atlantic Oceans while the surface water is cooled by the ice.  The increasing temperature difference between surface and deeper water causes a greater upward flow of heat.  This was first observed in research cruises that revealed evidence that the Arctic Ocean water was becoming more turbulent over time.

According to computer modeling, this phenomenon is responsible for about 20% of the amplification of global warming that occurs in the Arctic.

There are multiple ongoing studies looking at the Arctic warming trend.  Other factors that have contributed over time are the presence of chlorfluorocarbons in the atmosphere.   That contribution is waning since the use of CFCs has been phasing out over time.

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Researchers Find New Reason Why Arctic is Warming So Fast

Photo, posted April 19, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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