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Little ice on the Great Lakes

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In an average year, the Great Lakes end up about 40% covered in ice.  But this is not an average year.  2023 was the warmest year on record and, in fact, the global temperature was more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average for the full year.  That hasn’t happened before.  As a result of the record-breaking warmth, as of mid-February, the average ice cover on the Great Lakes was only 5.9%.

Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tied their records for the lowest ice cover, which has been tracked since 1973.  Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior are at historic lows.  Some parts of the Great Lakes have experienced the winter without any ice cover.

The warming air temperatures have led to rapid ice loss and warming summer temperatures.  According to experts, if the planet continues to warm, more than 200,000 lakes may no longer freeze every winter and 5,700 lakes may permanently lose ice cover by the end of the century.

Studying the Great Lakes is important because their ice melt can be a significant indicator of the progress of global warming.  Decreasing ice cover can affect hydropower generation, commercial shipping and fishing, and have environmental impacts such as the development of plankton blooms.

Since the 1970s, there has been a 5% decline in Great Lakes ice cover per decade.  Unfrozen lakes bring more rain than snow which has environmental, cultural, and societal impacts.  The Great Lakes hold 21% of the world’s freshwater supply and over 30 million people depend on them for drinking water.  They are also linked to over $3 trillion in gross domestic product.

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Great Lakes Winter Ice Cover Averaging Just 5.9%: NOAA

Photo, posted November 7, 2007, courtesy of Jim Sorbie via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Value Of Seagrass | Earth Wise

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Seagrasses are found in shallow salty and brackish waters in many places around the world, from the tropics to the Arctic Circle.  They get their name from their long green, grass-like leaves.  They are not seaweeds at all but are more closely related to flowering plants on land. 

We hear a lot about threatened ocean ecosystems and most of the attention is on coral reefs and coastal mangrove forests.  Seagrass meadows get much less press, but they in fact provide wide-ranging services to society and store a great deal of carbon.

A new study by the University of Michigan demonstrates that seagrass ecosystems should be high up on the global conservation agenda.  The study puts a dollar value on the many services – which include storm protection, fish habitat, and carbon storage – provided by seagrasses in the Caribbean.  The numbers are enormous.

The researchers estimate that the Caribbean holds up to half of the world’s seagrass meadows by surface area, and it contains about a third of the global carbon storage by seagrasses.  They calculated that the Caribbean seagrasses provide about $255 billion in services to society each year, which includes $88 billion in carbon storage.

In the Bahamas alone, ecosystems services provided by seagrasses are valued at more than 15 times the country’s 2020 gross domestic product.

Blue carbon is the name used to describe carbon stored in coastal and open-ocean ecosystems.  The idea of selling blue carbon offset credits, which monetize the carbon stored in this way, is gaining traction.  For many Caribbean nations, this is likely to provide impetus for protecting seagrass ecosystems from human impacts, including nutrient pollution and overfishing.

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Caribbean seagrasses provide services worth $255B annually, including vast carbon storage, study shows

Photo, posted June 27, 2023, courtesy of Daniel Eidsmoe via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Enormous Cost Of Steel Corrosion | Earth Wise

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Global steel production has been rising for decades.  Because steel corrodes over time, part of the demand for more steel comes from the need to replace the steel used in construction materials – in everything from bridges to cars – that has become corroded over time.  Studies have estimated that the economic cost of corrosion is an astonishing 3 to 4% of a nation’s gross domestic product.  Globally, this means that steel corrosion costs the world trillions – yes, trillions with a T – of dollars each year.

On top of the staggering economic impact of corrosion, there is the fact that steel production is one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters of any industry, accounting for more than 25% of all manufacturing sector carbon emissions.  In fact, steel manufacturing causes over 10% of total global carbon emissions.  

As a result of regulations placed on the steel industry, technological advances in the steelmaking process have resulted in a 61% reduction in the industry’s energy consumption over the last 50 years.   There are continuing efforts to reduce the energy consumption of steel making and to move away from the use of fossil fuels to produce the needed energy.  But without significant improvements, just the emissions associated with replacing corroded steel could make the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement unfeasible.

It’s hard to believe that something costing the world trillions of dollars and has a major negative impact on the climate is largely invisible.  Steel corrosion is an enormous societal challenge that has gone under the  radar for decades and therefore has not received anything like the attention it deserves.

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Reducing steel corrosion vital to combating climate change

Photo, posted July 24, 2008, courtesy of Phil Whitehouse via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Cost Of Heat Waves | Earth Wise

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Heat waves are defined as periods of abnormally hot weather generally lasting more than two days. To be considered a heat wave, the recorded temperatures must be substantially above the historical averages for a given area. According to climate scientists, anthropogenic climate change is likely causing heat waves to increase in both frequency and intensity.  

According to a new study by researchers from Dartmouth University, climate change-driven severe heat waves have cost the world economy trillions of dollars since the early 1990s. 

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Science Advances, researchers combined in-depth economic data for regions worldwide with the average temperature for the hottest five-day period —a commonly used measurement of heat intensity—for each region in each year.  The research team found that between 1992 and 2013, heat waves statistically coincided with variations in economic growth and that an estimated $16 trillion was lost to the effects of high temperatures on human health, productivity and agricultural output.

The results of the study underscore issues of climate justice and inequality.  According to researchers, the economic costs of extreme heat have been and will be disproportionately borne by the world’s poorest nations.  While economic losses due to extreme heat events averaged 1.5% of GDP per capita for the world’s wealthiest regions, the researchers found that low-income regions suffered a loss of 6.7% of GDP per capita.  Most of these low-income nations have contributed the least to climate change. 

According to the research team, immediate action is needed now to protect vulnerable people during the hottest days of the year.

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Heat Waves Have Cost World Economy Trillions of Dollars

Photo, posted July 23, 2021, courtesy of Martin Fisch (marfis75) via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Path To Net Zero | Earth Wise

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Reaching net zero emissions is both feasible and affordable, according to researchers at the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the University of San Francisco, and consulting firm Evolved Energy Research.   The researchers created a detailed model of the entire U.S. energy and industrial system to produce the first detailed, peer-reviewed study of how to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

The study analyzed multiple feasible technology pathways based on very different assumptions of remaining fossil fuel use, land use, consumer adoption, nuclear energy, and biofuel use.  What they had in common was increasing energy efficiency, transitioning to electric technologies, utilizing clean electricity (especially wind and solar power), and deploying small amounts of carbon capture technology.

The decarbonization of the U.S. energy system is an infrastructure transformation.  Getting to net zero by 2050 means adding many gigawatts of wind and solar power plants, new transmission lines, a fleet of electric cars and light trucks, millions of heat pumps to replace conventional furnaces and water heaters, and more energy-efficient buildings.

The various pathways studied have net costs between 0.2% and 1.2% of GDP, which is as little as $1 per person per day.  The cost variations come from various tradeoffs such as the amount of land given to solar and wind farms as well as the amount of new transmission infrastructure required. 

A key result of the study is that the actions required over the next 10 years are similar among all the pathways.   We need to increase the use of renewable energy and make sure that all new infrastructure, such as cars and buildings are low carbon.

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Getting to Net Zero – and Even Net Negative – is Surprisingly Feasible, and Affordable

Photo, posted July 12, 2010, courtesy of Tom Shockey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Cost Of Air Pollution | Earth Wise

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The environmental consequences of burning fossil fuels are a dominant topic.  The increasing changes in the climate have far-reaching effects across the globe and are a growing geopolitical crisis.  But the climate effects of fossil fuel emissions are by no means the only problem they cause.  

A new report by the Center for Research on Energy and Clear Air has, for the first time, attempted to quantify the global economic and health impacts of fossil fuel-caused air pollution.  In total, the estimate is that the economic and health costs of air pollution from burning fossil fuels totaled $2.9 trillion in 2018, calculated in the form of work absences, years of life lost, and premature deaths. The cost represents 3.3 percent of global GDP, or about $8 billion per day. 

The study focused on the health impacts of three specific types of pollutants:  nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and fine particulate matter, which has the greater impact.  Collectively, these pollutants cause about 1.8 billion days of missed work due to disease and $2.2 trillion in air pollution costs every year. Together, air pollution from these three pollutants is responsible for 4.5 million premature deaths around the world each year.

According to the report, the most premature deaths from fossil fuel-related air pollution in 2018 were in mainland China (1.8 million), India (1 million), and the United States (230,000). As a result, those three countries also faced the highest annual costs: $900 billion in China, $600 billion in the U.S., and $150 billion in India. 

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Toxic Air: The Price of Fossil Fuels (Full Report)

Photo, posted November 17, 2019, courtesy of Kristoffer Trolle via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Benefits Of Zero-Carbon Cities

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A new report issued by a coalition of 50 leading international institutions shows that low carbon initiatives in cities could reduce urban emissions by nearly 90% and support 87 million jobs worldwide by 2030.  The report finds that implementing low carbon measures in cities would be worth almost $24 trillion by 2050.

Cities are home to more than half the world’s population but produce 80% of gross domestic product and 75% of carbon emissions.  The research highlights the significant benefits carbon reduction can bring to cities in areas such as public health, job creation, and poverty alleviation.

The report shows that it is possible to cut 90% of emissions from cities using currently available technologies and practices including carbon savings from buildings, transportation, materials efficiency, and waste reduction.  Doing so would require an investment of nearly $2 trillion per year but would generate annual returns of nearly $3 trillion in 2030 and $7 trillion in 2050 based on cost savings alone.  Many low carbon measures would pay for themselves in less than five years, including more efficient lighting, electric vehicles, improved freight logistics, and solid waste management.

In addition to economic benefits, compact, connected and clean cities could provide a higher standard of living and greater opportunity for all.  These measures would also reduce air pollution, cut chronic traffic congestion, and improve worker productivity.

The report offers case studies from around the world where national and local governments have worked together to rapidly and profoundly transform their cities for the better within 20 or 30 years.

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The benefits of investing in zero-carbon cities

Photo, posted September 8, 2018, courtesy of Steffen Flor via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Economic Inequality

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A new study by Stanford University looked at the effects of climate change on global economic inequality.  The study found that the gap between the economic output of the world’s richest and poorest countries is larger today than it would have been without global warming.

The warming climate has enriched cooler countries like Norway and Sweden while dragging down economic growth in warm countries such as India and Nigeria.  The results of the study showed that most of the poorest countries on Earth are considerably poorer than they would have been in the absence of rising temperatures.  At the same time, the majority of rich countries are richer than they would have otherwise been.

Detailed analysis of 50 years of annual temperature and GDP measurements for 165 countries demonstrated that growth during warmer than average years has accelerated in cool nations and slowed in warm nations.  Historical data clearly show that crops are more productive, people are healthier, and they are more productive at work when temperatures are neither too hot nor too cold.  That means that in cold countries, a little bit of warming can help but the opposite is true in places that are already hot.

For most counties, whether global warming has helped or hurt economic growth is pretty certain.  Tropical countries in particular tend to have temperatures far outside the ideal for economic growth and they are already among the poorest countries.  It is less clear how warming has influenced growth in countries in the middle latitudes, such as here in the United States.  Some of the largest economies are near the perfect temperature for economic output but continued warming in the future is likely to push them away from the temperature optimum.

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Climate change has worsened global economic inequality

Photo, posted November 1, 2011, courtesy of CIAT via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Saving Beaches With Seagrass

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Almost a quarter of the Gross Domestic Product of places around the Caribbean Sea is earned from tourism.  Preserving the beaches in the region is an economic imperative.  With increasing coastal development, the natural flow of water and sand is disrupted, natural ecosystems are damaged, and many tropical beaches simply disappear into the sea.

With such high stakes, expensive coastal engineering efforts such as repeated replenishing of sand and the construction of concrete protective walls are common strategies.  Rising sea levels and increasingly powerful storms only increase the threat to tropical beaches.

Researchers from The Netherlands and Mexico recently published a study in the journal BioScience on the effectiveness of seagrass in holding onto sand and sediment along shorelines.

Seagrasses are so-named because most species have long green, grass-like leaves. They are often confused with seaweeds but are actually more closely related to flowering plants seen on land. Seagrasses have roots, stems and leaves, and produce flowers and seeds. Seagrasses can form dense underwater meadows and are one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. Seagrasses provide shelter and food to an incredibly diverse community of animals, from tiny invertebrates to large fish, crabs, turtles, marine mammals and birds.

The researchers performed measurements of the ability of seagrass along Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula coastline to keep sand in place and prevent erosion.  They found that the amount of erosion was strongly linked to the amount of vegetation.  Quite often, seagrass beds have been regarded as a nuisance, rather than a valuable asset for preserving valuable coastlines.  The study opens opportunities for developing new tropical beach protection schemes in which ecology is integrated into engineering solutions.

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Seagrass Saves Beaches and Money

Photo, posted October 13, 2010, courtesy of NOAA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars In Norway

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Norway has long been a world leader in sales of electric vehicles.  The country only has 5.3 million people, so the absolute numbers cannot compete with those of large countries.  Despite that, it wasn’t until the first quarter of last year that Germany became the leader in number of electric cars sold in Europe and Germany has 15 times the population of Norway.

In percentage terms, almost one-third of all new cars sold in Norway last year ran on batteries.  The country offers generous subsidies for buyers who opt to go electric.  The government has set a goal of having all new cars be emission-free by 2025.  Last year, three of the top five most popular new car models were electric:  the Nissan Leaf, the BMW i3, and the Tesla Model X.

Tesla’s Model 3, which has shattered all records for electric car sales in the United States, has yet to go on sale in Norway.  When the car becomes available there in the next few months, it is expected to generate very high sales figures.

The 31% market share for electric cars in Norway far exceeds that of most other countries.  In the United States, for example, plug-in cars account for only about 2% of new car sales.  Only Hong Kong and Iceland are also currently above 5% electric.

Norway’s role in all of this is rather convoluted.  The country has copious hydroelectric power resources that provide virtually all of its electricity.  Thus, electric cars in Norway are truly clean, green vehicles.  On the other hand, Norway is the 15th largest producer of oil in the world and gets about 17% of its GDP from oil exports.  Tackling climate change must ultimately deal with the emissions Norway continues to export.

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Photo, posted October 3, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Tourism And Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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Tourism is a significant contributor to global gross domestic product.  Furthermore, it is growing at an annual rate of 4%, more than many other economic sectors.  There are many places around the world where it is the largest industry.  But until recently, there really wasn’t very good information about its carbon footprint.

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Biomimicry Is Big

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Biomimicry is learning from and then emulating nature’s forms, processes, and ecosystems to create more sustainable designs.   Mother Nature is already the inspiration for countless products and designs ranging from Velcro copied from plant burs to the shape of wind turbines modeled after whale fins.  There are wetsuits inspired by beaver pelts and office buildings that copy termite dens.  Increasingly, innovators are looking at nature for designs in architecture, chemistry, agriculture, energy, health, transportation, computing, and even for the structure of organizations and cities.

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