forecast

Renewables Will Overtake Coal | Earth Wise

January 17, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, worldwide growth in renewable power capacity is set to double in the next five years. In fact, by 2027, the world will add as much renewable power as it did over the previous 20 years.

Of particular significance is that renewables are going to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by early 2025.

The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has had multiple effects on the evolution of the energy system. While the war has driven a resurgence in fossil fuel consumption in Europe in order to replace gas from Russia, that resurgence is expected to be short-lived. Instead, the current energy crisis may turn out to be an historic turning point toward a cleaner and more secure energy system.

Soaring fossil-fuel prices triggered by the war have caused many countries to respond by embracing wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles, and electric heat pumps. In the US, Congress approved more than $370 billion in spending for clean energy technologies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. China, India, South Korea, and Japan have all increased their national targets for renewable power. However, heating and cooling buildings with renewable power remains a sector needing larger improvement, according to the energy agency.

Overall, the expansion of renewable power over the next five years is now projected to happen much faster than what was projected just one year ago. The new IEA report revised last year’s forecast for renewables growth by 30% as a result of the introduction of new policies by many of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters.

**********

Web Links

Renewables Will Overtake Coal by Early 2025, Energy Agency Says

Photo, posted March 8, 2021, courtesy of Stanze via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Triple La Niña | Earth Wise

January 16, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

La Niña is an oceanic phenomenon consisting of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropic Pacific. It is essentially the opposite of the better-known El Niño. These sea-surface phenomena affect weather across the globe. As one oceanographer put it: when the Pacific speaks, the whole world listens.

There is currently a La Niña underway, and it is the third consecutive northern hemisphere winter that has had one. This so-called triple-dip event is rather rare. The only other times they have been recorded over the past 70 years were in 1954-56, 1973-76, and 1998-2001.

La Niñas appear when strong easterly trade winds increase the upwelling of cooler water from the depths of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator. This causes large-scale cooling of the ocean surface. The cooler ocean surface modifies the moisture content of the atmosphere across the Pacific and can cause shifts in the path of jet streams that intensifies rainfall in some places and causes droughts in others.

These weather effects tend to include floods in northern Australia, Indonesia, and southeast Asia and, in contrast, drought in the American southwest. In North America, cooler and stormier conditions often occur across the Pacific Northwest while the weather becomes warmer across the southern US and northern Mexico.

In the spring, the tropic Pacific essentially resets itself and starts building toward whatever condition will happen in the following winter, be it another La Niña or possibly an El Niño. For the time being, forecasters expect the current La Niña to persist through February.

**********

Web Links

La Niña Times Three

Photo, posted March 10, 2007, courtesy of Gail via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Energy Storage Boom | Earth Wise

November 25, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Global energy storage deployment is increasing at a very rapid pace. According to recent industry forecasts, there will be 12.4 gigawatts of new energy storage capacity online in 2021 breaking the previous annual record of 4.9 gigawatts set last year.

To understand these numbers, the world only reached 1 gigawatt of new capacity in a year for the first time in 2016. Five years later, 1 gigawatt represents a good month.

Industry projections are that new global storage capacity will increase each year, reaching 70 gigawatts by 2030.

Almost all of this new storage capacity is in the form of batteries and most of that is lithium-ion batteries. The largest battery storage facility in the world – the Manatee Energy Storage Center in Florida – is scheduled to be completed before the end of this year. But there are other battery technologies that offer promise and there are other storage technologies apart from batteries.

Pumped hydroelectric storage is long established technology that still represents the largest amount of storage capacity in the world with more than 181 GW of capacity. There is not much room for expansion of pumped hydro, which is limited to specific locations. But it will be years before battery storage catches up to this total.

The United States and China have a large majority of energy storage capacity and projections are that the two countries will still have nearly three-quarters of the world’s total capacity in 2030.

With the ongoing rapid expansion of wind and solar power, the need for energy storage continues to grow and is the driving force for the energy storage boom. It is not clear how it will all shake out, but energy storage is going to be a big deal from now on.

**********

Web Links

Inside Clean Energy: Taking Stock of the Energy Storage Boom Happening Right Now

Photo, posted March 15, 2013, courtesy of Portland General Electric via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Massive Dead Zone

June 18, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Gulf of Mexico dead zone occurs every summer, and is considered one of the largest dead zones in the world. This cyclical event occurs where the Mississippi River empties into the Gulf of Mexico, just off the coast of Louisiana and Texas.

This annual dead zone is primarily caused by excess nutrient pollution from human activities, such as urbanization and agriculture, occurring throughout the Mississippi River watershed. Washed off the land by spring rains, these excess nutrients stimulate an overgrowth of algae once they reach the Gulf of Mexico. The algae in the Gulf eventually die, and then sink and decompose in the water. The resulting area of the ocean ends up with a condition known as hypoxia, which is an insufficient amount of oxygen to support most marine life. In hypoxic or dead zones, animals that can’t swim away will often suffocate and die.

Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimate that this year the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico will be approximately 8,000 square miles, which is roughly the size of Massachusetts. The research team uses U.S. Geological Survey river flow and nutrient data to make its forecast.

According to NOAA, the abnormally high amount of spring rainfall is a major factor contributing to this year’s dead zone. Last month, nitrate loads entering the Mississippi River watershed were 18% above the long-term average, and phosphorus loads were about 49% above the long-term average.

While the 2019 forecast is slightly less than the record size of more than 8,700 square miles set in 2017, it’s still much larger than the five year average size of 5,700.

**********

Web Links

Very large dead zone forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Massive 8,000-mile ‘dead zone’ could be one of the gulf’s largest

Photo, posted May 22, 2009, courtesy of Michael McCarthy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Future Of Animals

June 12, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Researchers at the University of Southampton have forecast a global shift towards smaller birds and mammals over the next century.

According to the research team, small, fast-lived, highly fertile, and insect-eating animals, which can thrive in all sorts of habitats, will predominate in the future. Rodents and songbirds are examples of the so-called ‘winners.’ Less adaptable, slow-lived species, requiring specialist habitats, will be more likely to face extinction. Among the so-called ‘losers’ are the black rhino and the tawny eagle.

The researchers focused on more than 15,000 living mammals and birds and considered the following five characteristics: body mass, breadth of habitat, diet, litter or clutch size, and length of time between generations. Using this data and data from the IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species, the researchers used modern statistical tools to project and evaluate the loss of biodiversity.

The study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Communications, predicts that the average body mass of mammals will collectively decline by 25% over just the next 100 years. Over the past 130,000 years, the average body size of mammals only declined 14%.

This substantial downsizing of animals is forecasted to occur due to the effects of ecological change. But, according to the study’s lead author, the loss of these species, which perform unique functions within the global ecosystem, may ironically wind up being a driver of change as well.

The researchers hope future studies will further explore the long-term effects of species extinction on habitats and ecosystems.

**********

Web Links

Study predicts shift to smaller animals over next century

Photo, posted April 6, 2013, courtesy of Nic Trott via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Bad Year For Carbon

March 11, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for hundreds of thousands of years, and they continue to grow. The United Kingdom’s national meteorological service – known as the Met Office – issues annual predictions of global CO2 levels based in part on readings taken at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. Their forecast for this year is that there will be one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in the 62 years of measurements at Mauna Loa.

Since 1958, there has been a 30% increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This has been caused by emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and cement production. The increase would actually have been even larger if it were not for natural carbon sinks in the form of various ecosystems that soak up some of the excess CO2.

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon dioxide by land ecosystems. In years with a warmer tropical Pacific – such as El Niño years – many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and to absorb CO2 . The opposite happens when the Pacific is cool, as was the case last year.

The Met Office predicts that the contribution of natural carbon sinks will be relatively weak, so the impact of human-caused emissions will be larger than last year. The predicted rise in atmospheric CO2 is 2.75 parts-per-million, which is among the highest rises on record. The forecast for the average carbon dioxide concentration is 411 ppm, with peak monthly averages reaching almost 415 ppm. With global emissions not really declining, the numbers just get higher and higher.

**********

Web Links

Faster CO₂ rise expected in 2019

Photo, posted March 18, 2006, courtesy of Darin Marshall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Mapping Emerging Infectious Diseases

July 12, 2016 By WAMC WEB

Ebola. Hantavirus. Lyme disease. What do they have in common? Like most emerging infectious diseases, they originated in mammals. So many debilitating pathogens make the jump from wildlife and livestock to humans, yet at the global scale little is known about where people are most at risk of outbreaks.

Big Data + Technology = Improved Global Health

June 20, 2016 By WAMC WEB

Scientists are calling for the creation of a global early warning system for infectious diseases. Such a system would use computer models to tap into environmental, epidemiological, and molecular data – gathering the intelligence needed to forecast where disease risk is high and what actions could prevent outbreaks or contain epidemics.