forecast

Saharan dust and solar power

May 29, 2025 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The world is a big place but even things that are far away can have serious local consequences. The effects of distant Canadian wildfires on air quality in Florida is a good example.

Europe is increasingly becoming reliant on solar energy to meet its targets for climate change mitigation and energy security. According to new research by four Hungarian universities, mineral dust carried on the wind from the Sahara Desert is not only reducing electricity generation from solar power across Europe but it is also making it harder to predict what gets generated.

The Sahara releases billions of tons of fine dust into the atmosphere each year. Tens of millions of tons reach European skies where the tiny particles scatter and absorb sunlight, reduce the amount of light reaching the surface, and even promote cloud formation. All of these things reduce the output of photovoltaic systems.

In addition, conventional weather forecasting tools don’t consider the effects of Saharan dust events, so that scheduling of solar power for the energy system becomes less reliable. Incorporating these events into new forecast models will be essential.

Apart from the atmospheric effects of the dust, there are also long-term impacts due to dust contaminating and eroding the physical infrastructure of solar panels thereby further reducing their efficiency and increasing maintenance costs.

Over time, south-to-north transport of Saharan dust is likely to become more pronounced due to a steeper thermal gradient. Currently, the quantities of atmospheric dust, the dynamics of its transport, and the physical properties of the dust itself are not very well understood. Understanding these things will be crucial for Europe’s energy future.

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The shadow of the wind: photovoltaic power generation under Europe’s dusty skies

Photo, posted March 11, 2023, courtesy of Mark Wordy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A record year for solar and batteries

March 20, 2025 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a recent forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, solar panels and batteries will account for more than 80% of new power capacity installed in the U.S. this year. The record growth of these technologies is hastening the decline of coal power in this country.

Solar power alone will account for more than half of the country’s new power capacity and most of it will be in Texas and California.

Wind power is expected to provide only 12% of new capacity this year. Wind is facing rising costs, lengthy permitting, public backlash, and clear opposition from the Trump administration which is determined to stifle its growth.

As renewable energy grows, coal power continues to decline. The U.S. will retire twice as much coal power this year as it did last year, closing about 5% of the country’s capacity. Not only are older coal plants shutting down; the remaining plants are generating less power.

One of the most significant changes in technology over the last few decades has been the massive drop in the cost of clean energy. Solar photovoltaic costs have fallen by 90% in the past decade, onshore wind by 70%, and batteries by more than 90%. The connection between cost reduction and volume has been very strong: costs of these technologies have fallen by around 20% every time global cumulative capacity doubles. Over the past 40 years, solar power has transformed from one of the most expensive electricity sources to the cheapest in many countries. That trend is likely to continue. Setting politics aside, market forces generally are the strongest driver.

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U.S. Solar and Batteries Headed for Record Year

Photo, posted December 16, 2024, courtesy of Bureau of Land Management California via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

South American drought

November 13, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Vast areas of South America have been gripped in drought conditions for months. Rivers in the Amazon basin fell to record-low levels in October. The drought has amplified wildfires, parched crops, disrupted transportation networks, and interrupted hydroelectric power generation in parts of Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.

The drought is related to the impact of the El Niño that was present for the latter part of 2023 and the first half of this year. El Niño typically shifts rainfall patterns in such a way that there is reduced rainfall in the Amazon. This is especially true during the dry season months of July, August, and September.

Forecasts earlier in the year warned that there would be extreme fire conditions during the dry season. Indeed, the Pantanal region that spans parts of southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia has experienced one of its worst fire seasons in decades. The lack of rainfall, low soil moisture, and drawdowns of groundwater helped to amplify fires and caused them to spread faster and farther.

The drought has strained power supplies in Brazil and Ecuador because hydroelectric power stations are producing less electricity. Snarled transportation networks with impassible rivers have left some communities struggling to get supplies.

Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters has called the current drought the most intense and widespread Brazil has ever experienced. Late October saw 293 Brazilian municipalities facing extreme drought.

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Intense, Widespread Drought Grips South America

Photo, posted August 13, 2010, courtesy of Colm Britton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

An active hurricane season

May 13, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st until November 30th. Forecasters at Colorado State University have issued forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity since 1984 based on the pioneering work of Professor William Gray. This year’s forecast, issued in April, predicts a higher-than-average number of Atlantic storms. In fact, it may be one of the most active seasons on record.

On average, there are 14 named storms each season. This year, the prediction is for 23 of them. On average, there are 7 hurricanes each season. This year, the prediction is for 11. The prediction is for 5 major hurricanes among them. These predictions are among the highest on record, although in 2020 they predicted 12 hurricanes. In fact, that year there were 14 that actually took place.

Among the factors at play are that the El Niño that was occurring last year has dissipated and there is a good chance of a La Niña forming, which suppresses upper-level winds thereby making conditions ideal for hurricane formation and intensification. But the overarching factor is global warming which is driving ocean temperature rise. The water in the Atlantic, especially in the eastern Atlantic where most hurricanes form, has seen record-breaking warmth. More warm water means more chances for storms.

Other research groups echo the predictions from Colorado State and, in some cases, see ever greater chances for an extremely active hurricane season. The University of Pennsylvania forecast calls for 33 named storms.

The overall forecast is for a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean.

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Weather tracker: US experts predict one of most active hurricane seasons on record

Photo, posted September 5, 2017, courtesy of NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Marine Heat Waves | Earth Wise

August 17, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

In late July, the ocean temperature measured in Florida Bay, between the southern end of the Florida mainland and the Florida Keys, was 101.1 degrees Fahrenheit, a possible world record for sea surface temperature. There is no official record keeping for ocean temperatures, but the highest previous reading ever reported was 99.7 degrees in the middle of Kuwait Bay in 2020.

What is going on is a marine heat wave and marine heat waves can last for weeks, months, or even years. The current Gulf of Mexico marine heat wave has been present for several months, beginning in February or March. Experimental forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the extreme ocean temperatures in the area may persist through at least October.

The ocean absorbs 90% of the excess heat associated with global warming. Therefore, marine heat waves all over the planet are becoming warmer over time. The current marine heat wave would likely have occurred even without climate change, but because of it, the event is extraordinarily warm.

Marine heat waves cause stress to corals and other marine ecosystems. Exposure to extreme temperatures for long periods of time causes corals to eject the algae that live inside of them, resulting in white or pale coral. This coral bleaching leaves the coral without food and will ultimately kill it.

In general, extreme heat can be destructive and deadly for marine ecosystems. A massive marine heat wave known as “the Blob” took hold in 2013-2016 in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and led to an ecological cascade of fishery collapses, toxic algal blooms, and record numbers of humpback whale entanglements.

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The ongoing marine heat waves in U.S. waters, explained

Photo, posted December 25, 2016, courtesy of Paul Asman and Jill Lenoble via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Below-Average Dead Zone In The Gulf of Mexico | Earth Wise

July 20, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Gulf of Mexico dead zone, or hypoxic area, is an area of low oxygen content that can kill fish and other marine life. It occurs every summer and is mostly a result of excess nutrient pollution from human activities in cities and farms throughout the Mississippi River watershed. The nutrients carried by the river into the gulf stimulate an overgrowth of algae, which eventually die and decompose, which depletes oxygen in the water as the algae sink to the bottom.

The resultant low oxygen levels near the bottom of the gulf cannot support most marine life. Fish and shrimp often leave the area seeking better places to be. Animals that can’t swim away – like mussels and crabs – can be stressed by the low oxygen level or even killed.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration produces a dead zone forecast each year based on a suite of models developed by NOAA and partners at multiple universities.

The latest forecast, completed in May, found that the discharge of nutrients in the rivers was about one-third below the long-term average between 1980 and 2022. Nitrate loads were down 42% and phosphorous levels down 5%.

Based on these measurements, the scientists forecast a summer dead zone that will cover an estimated 4,155 square miles, which is 22% lower than the 36-year average of 5,364 square miles. Ongoing efforts by the Interagency Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force to reduce nutrient levels seem to be paying off.

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NOAA forecasts below-average summer ‘dead zone’ in Gulf of Mexico

Photo, posted September 6, 2013, courtesy of NOAA Photo Library via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewables Will Overtake Coal | Earth Wise

January 17, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, worldwide growth in renewable power capacity is set to double in the next five years. In fact, by 2027, the world will add as much renewable power as it did over the previous 20 years.

Of particular significance is that renewables are going to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by early 2025.

The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has had multiple effects on the evolution of the energy system. While the war has driven a resurgence in fossil fuel consumption in Europe in order to replace gas from Russia, that resurgence is expected to be short-lived. Instead, the current energy crisis may turn out to be an historic turning point toward a cleaner and more secure energy system.

Soaring fossil-fuel prices triggered by the war have caused many countries to respond by embracing wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles, and electric heat pumps. In the US, Congress approved more than $370 billion in spending for clean energy technologies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. China, India, South Korea, and Japan have all increased their national targets for renewable power. However, heating and cooling buildings with renewable power remains a sector needing larger improvement, according to the energy agency.

Overall, the expansion of renewable power over the next five years is now projected to happen much faster than what was projected just one year ago. The new IEA report revised last year’s forecast for renewables growth by 30% as a result of the introduction of new policies by many of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters.

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Renewables Will Overtake Coal by Early 2025, Energy Agency Says

Photo, posted March 8, 2021, courtesy of Stanze via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Triple La Niña | Earth Wise

January 16, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

La Niña is an oceanic phenomenon consisting of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropic Pacific. It is essentially the opposite of the better-known El Niño. These sea-surface phenomena affect weather across the globe. As one oceanographer put it: when the Pacific speaks, the whole world listens.

There is currently a La Niña underway, and it is the third consecutive northern hemisphere winter that has had one. This so-called triple-dip event is rather rare. The only other times they have been recorded over the past 70 years were in 1954-56, 1973-76, and 1998-2001.

La Niñas appear when strong easterly trade winds increase the upwelling of cooler water from the depths of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator. This causes large-scale cooling of the ocean surface. The cooler ocean surface modifies the moisture content of the atmosphere across the Pacific and can cause shifts in the path of jet streams that intensifies rainfall in some places and causes droughts in others.

These weather effects tend to include floods in northern Australia, Indonesia, and southeast Asia and, in contrast, drought in the American southwest. In North America, cooler and stormier conditions often occur across the Pacific Northwest while the weather becomes warmer across the southern US and northern Mexico.

In the spring, the tropic Pacific essentially resets itself and starts building toward whatever condition will happen in the following winter, be it another La Niña or possibly an El Niño. For the time being, forecasters expect the current La Niña to persist through February.

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La Niña Times Three

Photo, posted March 10, 2007, courtesy of Gail via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Energy Storage Boom | Earth Wise

November 25, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Global energy storage deployment is increasing at a very rapid pace. According to recent industry forecasts, there will be 12.4 gigawatts of new energy storage capacity online in 2021 breaking the previous annual record of 4.9 gigawatts set last year.

To understand these numbers, the world only reached 1 gigawatt of new capacity in a year for the first time in 2016. Five years later, 1 gigawatt represents a good month.

Industry projections are that new global storage capacity will increase each year, reaching 70 gigawatts by 2030.

Almost all of this new storage capacity is in the form of batteries and most of that is lithium-ion batteries. The largest battery storage facility in the world – the Manatee Energy Storage Center in Florida – is scheduled to be completed before the end of this year. But there are other battery technologies that offer promise and there are other storage technologies apart from batteries.

Pumped hydroelectric storage is long established technology that still represents the largest amount of storage capacity in the world with more than 181 GW of capacity. There is not much room for expansion of pumped hydro, which is limited to specific locations. But it will be years before battery storage catches up to this total.

The United States and China have a large majority of energy storage capacity and projections are that the two countries will still have nearly three-quarters of the world’s total capacity in 2030.

With the ongoing rapid expansion of wind and solar power, the need for energy storage continues to grow and is the driving force for the energy storage boom. It is not clear how it will all shake out, but energy storage is going to be a big deal from now on.

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Inside Clean Energy: Taking Stock of the Energy Storage Boom Happening Right Now

Photo, posted March 15, 2013, courtesy of Portland General Electric via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Massive Dead Zone

June 18, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Gulf of Mexico dead zone occurs every summer, and is considered one of the largest dead zones in the world. This cyclical event occurs where the Mississippi River empties into the Gulf of Mexico, just off the coast of Louisiana and Texas.

This annual dead zone is primarily caused by excess nutrient pollution from human activities, such as urbanization and agriculture, occurring throughout the Mississippi River watershed. Washed off the land by spring rains, these excess nutrients stimulate an overgrowth of algae once they reach the Gulf of Mexico. The algae in the Gulf eventually die, and then sink and decompose in the water. The resulting area of the ocean ends up with a condition known as hypoxia, which is an insufficient amount of oxygen to support most marine life. In hypoxic or dead zones, animals that can’t swim away will often suffocate and die.

Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimate that this year the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico will be approximately 8,000 square miles, which is roughly the size of Massachusetts. The research team uses U.S. Geological Survey river flow and nutrient data to make its forecast.

According to NOAA, the abnormally high amount of spring rainfall is a major factor contributing to this year’s dead zone. Last month, nitrate loads entering the Mississippi River watershed were 18% above the long-term average, and phosphorus loads were about 49% above the long-term average.

While the 2019 forecast is slightly less than the record size of more than 8,700 square miles set in 2017, it’s still much larger than the five year average size of 5,700.

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Very large dead zone forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Massive 8,000-mile ‘dead zone’ could be one of the gulf’s largest

Photo, posted May 22, 2009, courtesy of Michael McCarthy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Future Of Animals

June 12, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Researchers at the University of Southampton have forecast a global shift towards smaller birds and mammals over the next century.

According to the research team, small, fast-lived, highly fertile, and insect-eating animals, which can thrive in all sorts of habitats, will predominate in the future. Rodents and songbirds are examples of the so-called ‘winners.’ Less adaptable, slow-lived species, requiring specialist habitats, will be more likely to face extinction. Among the so-called ‘losers’ are the black rhino and the tawny eagle.

The researchers focused on more than 15,000 living mammals and birds and considered the following five characteristics: body mass, breadth of habitat, diet, litter or clutch size, and length of time between generations. Using this data and data from the IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species, the researchers used modern statistical tools to project and evaluate the loss of biodiversity.

The study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Communications, predicts that the average body mass of mammals will collectively decline by 25% over just the next 100 years. Over the past 130,000 years, the average body size of mammals only declined 14%.

This substantial downsizing of animals is forecasted to occur due to the effects of ecological change. But, according to the study’s lead author, the loss of these species, which perform unique functions within the global ecosystem, may ironically wind up being a driver of change as well.

The researchers hope future studies will further explore the long-term effects of species extinction on habitats and ecosystems.

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Study predicts shift to smaller animals over next century

Photo, posted April 6, 2013, courtesy of Nic Trott via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Bad Year For Carbon

March 11, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for hundreds of thousands of years, and they continue to grow. The United Kingdom’s national meteorological service – known as the Met Office – issues annual predictions of global CO2 levels based in part on readings taken at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. Their forecast for this year is that there will be one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in the 62 years of measurements at Mauna Loa.

Since 1958, there has been a 30% increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This has been caused by emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and cement production. The increase would actually have been even larger if it were not for natural carbon sinks in the form of various ecosystems that soak up some of the excess CO2.

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon dioxide by land ecosystems. In years with a warmer tropical Pacific – such as El Niño years – many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and to absorb CO2 . The opposite happens when the Pacific is cool, as was the case last year.

The Met Office predicts that the contribution of natural carbon sinks will be relatively weak, so the impact of human-caused emissions will be larger than last year. The predicted rise in atmospheric CO2 is 2.75 parts-per-million, which is among the highest rises on record. The forecast for the average carbon dioxide concentration is 411 ppm, with peak monthly averages reaching almost 415 ppm. With global emissions not really declining, the numbers just get higher and higher.

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Faster CO₂ rise expected in 2019

Photo, posted March 18, 2006, courtesy of Darin Marshall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Mapping Emerging Infectious Diseases

July 12, 2016 By WAMC WEB

Ebola. Hantavirus. Lyme disease. What do they have in common? Like most emerging infectious diseases, they originated in mammals. So many debilitating pathogens make the jump from wildlife and livestock to humans, yet at the global scale little is known about where people are most at risk of outbreaks.

Big Data + Technology = Improved Global Health

June 20, 2016 By WAMC WEB

Scientists are calling for the creation of a global early warning system for infectious diseases. Such a system would use computer models to tap into environmental, epidemiological, and molecular data – gathering the intelligence needed to forecast where disease risk is high and what actions could prevent outbreaks or contain epidemics.