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Record energy transition investments

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Global investment in the energy transition – that is, the transition away from fossil fuels – increased by 17% in 2023, reaching a new high of $1.8 trillion dollars.  That number includes spending on electric vehicles and their associated infrastructure, electrification of the power grid, and various other changes to the energy system.

Electrified transport was the largest sector for spending, accounting for $634 billion dollars.  This figure includes spending on electric cars, trucks, buses, two- and three-wheeler, and commercial vehicles, as well as charging stations and other associated infrastructure.

The renewable energy sector – including wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuel power plants – accounted for $623 billion.  The third largest investment was $310 billion in power grid investments.

China spent the most of any country by a large margin, investing $676 billion. The EU, U.S., and UK combined accounted for $718 billion. 

These numbers reflect the rapid growth of clean energy across the globe and are obviously quite large.  However, the pace at which clean energy technology is growing is not fast enough to achieve the goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century that most countries have set.  By many accounts, energy transition investments would need to average $4.8 trillion per year for the rest of the decade to be on track.  This is about 5.6% of the global gross domestic product that is currently about $85 trillion per year.  By comparison, the U.S. currently spends about 5.7% of its GDP on energy.

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Energy transition investments hit record $1.8 trillion in 2023

Photo, posted November 22, 2008, courtesy of Oregon Department of Transportation via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Motors For Aviation | Earth Wise

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Aviation contributes about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.  Its carbon footprint is one of the more difficult ones to reduce.  Electrifying planes would shrink that footprint considerably, but it represents a significant technical challenge.  To date, only small all-electric planes have gotten off the ground.  The electric motors in those planes generate hundreds of kilowatts of power.  To power large planes, like commercial airliners, megawatt-scale motors are required.

A team of MIT engineers is developing a 1-megawatt motor that could be a key step towards electrifying commercial aircraft.  They have designed and tested major components of the motor and have calculated how the completed design could generate one megawatt of power at a weight and size competitive with existing small aircraft engines.

To be suitable for aircraft use, motors have to be compact and lightweight.  The more power electric motors generate, the bigger they are and the more heat they produce.  Cooling motors requires additional components that take up space and add significant weight.  The MIT motor design and associated power electronics are each about the size of a typical checked suitcase and weigh less than an adult passenger.

Once the MIT team can demonstrate an entire functional motor, the design could be used to power regional aircraft and could be the enabling element of hybrid-electric propulsion systems for jet aircraft.  Possible future configurations could make use of multiple one-megawatt motors powering multiple fans distributed along aircraft wings.

Electrification of aircraft is a slow but steady area of development and technologies such as that being developed at MIT could end up meeting the practical needs of the aircraft of the future.

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Megawatt electrical motor designed by MIT engineers could help electrify aviation

Photo, posted September 14, 2019, courtesy of Dylan Agbagni via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars In Norway | Earth Wise

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We are at a relatively early stage of the electric car revolution.  EV sales are increasing rapidly, but they still comprise only a small fraction of the cars on American roads.  So, there is still lots of speculation and argument about how things will actually work when a large fraction of cars are electric.  But there is at least one place where one doesn’t have to speculate:  Norway.

Last year, 80% of new-car sales in Norway were EVs.  That country is essentially an observatory for figuring out what the electrification of vehicles will mean for the environment, workers, and life in general.  In fact, sales of internal combustion cars in Norway will end in 2025.

Based on Norway’s experience, electric vehicles bring benefits and none of the dire consequences that some critics predict.  The transition isn’t problem-free.  There have been unreliable chargers and long waits during periods of high demand.  Auto dealers and retailers have had to adapt to the changes in their businesses.  The pecking order of car brands has changed dramatically making Tesla the best-selling brand and marginalizing long-established carmakers like Renault and Fiat.

But in the bigger picture, the air in Oslo, the capital of Norway, is measurably cleaner.  The city is quieter as noisy gasoline and diesel vehicles gradually disappear.  Oslo’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 30% since 2009.  Meanwhile, there hasn’t been mass unemployment among gas station workers, and the electrical grid has not collapsed.

Norway is perhaps 10 years ahead of us with respect to electric cars.  There are still problems to solve, and difficulties to overcome, but so far, it looks like it will all turn out well.

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In Norway, the Electric Vehicle Future Has Already Arrived

Photo, posted October 15, 2018, courtesy of Mario Duran-Ortiz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Race For EV Batteries | Earth Wise

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Lithium-ion batteries have been the power source for electric vehicles since 2008, when the Tesla Roadster was introduced.  They took over for nickel-metal hydride batteries that powered most hybrid electric cars such as the Prius.  Lithium-ion batteries store much more energy for a battery of a given weight, which leads to greater driving range.

But lithium-ion is not an ideal solution.  The batteries depend on critical materials that are obtained by hacking into mountains, utilizing scarce desert groundwater, and in some cases, making use of child labor. Many materials depend on countries with whom economic ties have complicated geopolitical consequences.

State and federal mandates and incentives are pushing auto companies to prioritize electric vehicles in their future plans.  The Inflation Reduction Act in particular provides credits and other incentives for both consumers and manufacturers to electrify. So, sources for EV batteries are a key issue.

The Department of Energy is funding 20 different companies with $2.8 billion to bolster the production and processing of critical minerals in the U.S.  The goal is to bring the electric vehicle supply chain onshore to the greatest extent possible.  Some of the work involves redesigning lithium-ion batteries to reduce or eliminate problematic materials such as cobalt.  Other efforts seek to find domestic sources of critical materials such as lithium without causing serious environmental problems.

Given all this, it is no surprise that academic and industrial researchers are also exploring a wide variety of alternative battery technologies. 

The future of transportation is electrification and the race for EV batteries is on.

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For U.S. Companies, the Race for the New EV Battery Is On

Photo, posted August 27, 2021, courtesy of Ron Frazier via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Primary Ways To Mitigate Climate Change | Earth Wise

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The most recent report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the world must halt the increase in greenhouse gases within three years, reduce emissions by 43% in the next seven years, and eliminate them entirely by 2050.  Otherwise, there will likely be catastrophic and irreversible impacts on the climate.

With respect to achieving these reductions, the report emphasizes decarbonizing the energy sector through electrification by replacing fossil fuels anywhere and everywhere possible.  Where that isn’t yet practical – such as in shipping and aviation – the use of biofuels and hydrogen can provide a stopgap until battery technology becomes a viable alternative.

The economics of this approach continue to improve.  Since 2010, the cost of wind, solar, and batteries has declined by as much as 85%.  In many cases, costs have fallen below those of fossil fuels.  Nonetheless, the report stresses that continuing to provide national, state, and local incentives for using renewable energy is a key factor in achieving the necessary reductions.

However, reducing emissions will no longer be enough.  This is the first major IPCC report that states that man-made carbon dioxide removal strategies will be necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.  So-called natural carbon storage options, like planting trees and using farming methods that sequester carbon in soil, are also important parts of the strategy.

It is up to governments, policymakers, and investors to implement the necessary changes to mitigate climate change.  There is lots of talk about it, but it will take concerted action to avoid increasingly dire consequences.

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Report highlights affordable, available ways to mitigate climate change now

Photo, posted September 8, 2007, courtesy of Kevin Dooley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars On The Rise | Earth Wise           

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The first quarter of the year was a tough one for the U.S. auto industry.  Overall sales of cars and trucks were down 15.7% compared with last year.   Automakers have been dealing with shortages of computer chips and other supplies, resulting in slowdowns in production.

The one major exception to the trend has been sales of electric cars.  In the first quarter, U.S. electric vehicle sales were up 76% compared with last year.  This was enough to double EV’s market share to 5.2%, up from 2.5% last year.

Reaching a five percent market share is a significant indicator that electric vehicles are becoming mainstream.  According to many industry analysts, this is just the beginning of a major ramp-up in EV sales.

The strong results in the first quarter were largely driven by one company – namely, Tesla.  Tesla has been expanding rapidly and has been proactive and creative in avoiding delays due to parts shortages.  Tesla’s best-selling car is now the Model Y, which is an SUV implementation of its Model 3 design.  Overall, the company is now producing cars at a rate of more than 1 million per year and has recently opened new manufacturing plants in Texas and in Germany.

But Tesla is not the only story in the world of electric vehicles.  Mass production is beginning for Ford’s F-150 Lightning truck. 

Nissan, Hyundai and Kia have electric cars on the market and shortly near-twin electric models jointly developed by Subaru and Toyota will be available as well.

The electrification of vehicles is an essential step in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  With gasoline at painfully high prices, electric cars are more attractive than ever.

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Inside Clean Energy: US Electric Vehicle Sales Soared in First Quarter, while Overall Auto Sales Slid

Photo, posted October 13, 2017, courtesy of Rob Bertholf via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Pickup Trucks | Earth Wise

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There are more and more electric cars on the market as auto manufacturers move toward fleet-wide electrification.  In the United States, pickup trucks are massively popular.  The top three selling vehicles in the country are all trucks, led by the Ford F-Series.  Thus, it is no surprise that automakers are now turning their attention to electric pickup trucks.

Some of the trucks are from established manufacturers like Ford and Chevy and others from new companies like Rivian.  The Ford F-150 Lightning is bound to be a big seller.  There are hundreds of thousands of pre-orders for Tesla’s exotic Cybertruck, now expected to enter the market next year.

A recent study looked at the environmental impact of pickup truck electrification.  The central question is what does the transition to electric trucks mean for the overall decarbonization of the transportation industry?

Researchers from the University of Michigan and the Ford Motor Company conducted a cradle-to-grave assessment of the life cycle of pickup trucks and compared the implications of truck electrification to those of sedans and SUVs.

The study found that replacing an internal combustion-powered vehicle with a battery-powered vehicle results in greater total greenhouse gas emission reductions as the size of the vehicle increases, which is no real surprise considering how much more gas larger vehicles use.

The study also found that manufacturing electric vehicles produces more emissions than gas-powered vehicles, but the impact is offset by savings in their operation.  Breakeven time is little more than a year.

Basically, the results are that replacing gas-powered trucks with electric trucks is even a bigger win for the planet than replacing gas cars with electric cars.  Let’s hope we see plenty of electric trucks on the roads in the near future.

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Study: Greater greenhouse gas reductions for pickup truck electrification than for other light-duty vehicles

Photo, posted September 22, 2020, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Batteries On Wheels | Earth Wise

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Transportation accounts for nearly a quarter of the direct carbon dioxide emissions coming from burning fuel.  As a result, electrification of transport is one of the major ways we can reduce emissions.  Increasing the number of electric vehicles over time is essential for meeting emissions targets.

But electric vehicles have the potential to do more than deliver emissions reduction; they can also provide other energy services.

More and more electric cars provide over 200 miles of driving range, but most cars are actually driven no more than 30 miles a day.  As a result, the fleet of electric cars represents a huge bank of energy stored in battery packs and mostly sitting around unused.  This presents an opportunity to leverage this resource.

Car battery packs could be used to absorb excess renewable energy generated in the middle of the day (for example from solar installations) or at night (from wind farms) and potentially then to export stored energy to power homes and support the grid.  This energy system is known as V2G, or vehicle-to-grid technology.

The University of Queensland in Australia has launched a unique international trial to see if the spare battery capacity in vehicles could be used for these purposes.  The university has partnered with Teslascope, which is an online analytics platform used by Tesla owners to track the performance of their cars.  Tesla owners wishing to be part of the study authorize the collection of their data and, in turn, receive a free 12-month subscription to the Teslascope service.  The study will collect data from Tesla owners in Australia, the US, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Germany, and the UK.

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Can EV spare battery capacity support the grid?

Photo, posted February 8, 2009, courtesy of City of St Pete via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Reducing Emissions From Shipping And Aviation | Earth Wise

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The global marine shipping and aviation industries are each responsible for about 3% of greenhouse gas emissions.  These are relatively small numbers, but as other industries decarbonize, the contributions from shipping and aviation will loom larger and larger.

In October, both of these industries made commitments to reach net zero emissions by 2050.  How can they do it?  We don’t really have the details of the technologies to be used, and neither do these industries.  But there are ideas being considered.

For both ships and planes, the solution for short-distance trips can be electrification.  Electric planes are in the works for short distances.  Battery-powered container ships are also under development.  But the electrification of longer international and intercontinental routes for both industries is very difficult.  The size and weight of batteries needed for long hauls are major challenges to overcome.

The low-carbon solution slowly being deployed in aviation is sustainable aviation fuel made from renewable sources. Longer term, green hydrogen fuel for planes may be a solution.  For shipping, hydrogen may play an even larger role.  As in the other potential uses for hydrogen, the essential requirement is to be able to produce hydrogen in a way that does not emit greenhouse gases.

There are multiple ways to move towards the decarbonization of both aviation and shipping.  Which will turn out to be the most practical and successful is not yet known.  What is essential is for both industries to follow through on their commitments to research, develop, and deploy zero-carbon solutions.  They appear to have embraced the vision for the future.  Now comes the hard work of achieving that vision.

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Shipping & Aviation Plan To Go Net Zero. How?

Photo, posted August 8, 2014, courtesy of Tomas Del Coro via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electrifying The Federal Fleet | Earth Wise

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The federal government owns and operates about 645,000 vehicles.  Among them are about 200,000 passenger vehicles, 78,000 heavy-duty trucks, 47,000 vans, 847 ambulances, and three limousines.   About 225,000 vehicles are operated by the Postal Service.  

Each year, these vehicles are driven about 4.5 billion miles and use about 400 million gallons of gasoline, producing 3.5 million tons of greenhouse gases.

President Biden signed an executive order in January directing federal officials to devise a plan for converting the entire fleet to clean and zero-emission vehicles.  So far, the work has been slow. 

According to a new report from Atlas Public Policy, accelerating the push for electric vehicles in the federal fleet could save taxpayers billions of dollars.

Electric vehicles have lower fueling and maintenance costs as well as a smaller environmental impact.  According to the report, the government could replace 40% of its light-duty vehicles and buses not owned by the Postal Service with cheaper plug-in alternatives by 2025.  By 2030, it could replace 97% of such vehicles with EVs for a lifetime savings of more than $1 billion.  Furthermore, by 2025, it would be possible to replace nearly all mail trucks with EVs for a savings of $2.9 billion.

The federal fleet represents an opportunity to encourage transportation electrification to happen much more quickly.  Apart from the economic and environmental benefits, having an electrified federal fleet would increase public awareness of the practicality and benefits of electric vehicles.

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Push to Electrify Federal Fleet Could Yield Billions in Savings by 2030

Photo, posted May 14, 2015, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Vehicle Electrification On The Rise | Earth Wise

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Nearly 70% of U.S. oil consumption is for transportation and transportation accounts for 28% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.  Therefore, technology improvements in transportation that can reduce emissions are a key element of combating climate change.  The highest impact strategy is the electrification of the transportation sector, and it is definitely accelerating.

Demand for electric vehicles is growing for multiple reasons.  These include long-term cost savings, tax incentives, declining battery costs, and greater environmental awareness.  This year, about 2.7 percent of global passenger vehicle sales will be for electric vehicles.  It is still a fairly small number, but that number is growing rapidly.  It is expected to be 10% in 2025, 28% in 2030, and more than half of all vehicle sales by 2040.  By that year, more than 30% of passenger vehicles on the road worldwide will be electric.  The numbers for electric buses, delivery vans and trucks, mopeds, scooters, and motorcycles are expected to be even higher.

The environmental impact of electrification will be significant in reducing carbon emissions and pollution in general.  Electric vehicles already reduce oil demand by a million barrels a day.  By the year 2040, they will displace nearly 18 million barrels of oil a day and reduce CO2 emissions by 2.5 billion tons per year.

Electric cars still face challenges.  They are still more expensive than gas-powered cars, but their cost-benefit analysis is changing rapidly as technology improvements and volume efficiencies drive down the cost of battery packs.  Analysts predict that electric vehicles will achieve price parity with internal combustion vehicles in as soon as two years but in any case within the next ten years.

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Electrification of transportation sector nears tipping point

Photo, posted May 7, 2020, courtesy of Mark Vletter via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Other Ways To Cut Vehicle Emissions

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It is pretty clear that the way to drastically reduce vehicle greenhouse gas emissions is to switch as many vehicles as possible to electric power.  As a result, more and more localities are putting in place policies that encourage electrification.

While there is no doubt that electrification is the long-term solution to vehicle emissions, a recent study by MIT and the Ford Motor Company found that, in the short term, there are some places in the US where electric cars are not the best way to reduce emissions.

The study looked at a variety of factors that affect the relative performance of vehicles.  These include the role of low temperatures in reducing battery performance, regional differences in the average number of miles driven annually, and significant differences in the way electricity is generated in different parts of the US.

The results showed that electric vehicles definitely provide the greatest impact in reducing greenhouse gas emissions for most of the country – and particularly on both coasts and in the south – but that there are some places in the upper Midwest where the greatest reduction would be achieved by the use of lightweight gasoline-powered vehicles.

In places like parts of Wisconsin and Michigan, it is mostly rural, there are cold winters, and electricity is predominantly generated by coal-powered plants.  In these places, if gas-powered lightweight cars were to be used, the overall benefit would be greater than that of electric cars.  Unfortunately, there are no high-volume lightweight gasoline-powered mid-sized cars on the market in the US.  Ironically, the only cars of that class using lightweight aluminum construction are Teslas.

While electric cars are truly the long-term solution, the study does demonstrate the benefits of reducing the weight of vehicles.

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What’s the best way to cut vehicle greenhouse-gas emissions?

Photo, posted February 9, 2018, courtesy of Dave Field via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hopeful Climate Trends

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In November, Syria joined the Paris Climate Accord.  As a result, the United States is now the only country in the world that has rejected the global pact.  Despite this embarrassing news, there is reason for optimism in the effort to stave off the worst impacts of climate change.  In particular, 7 major trends provide hope that things could move in the right direction.

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Reduced Emissions From Electricity Generation

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A recent report from the Energy Information Administration notes that for the first time in 40 years, carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are less than those from transportation.   The reason is that power plants nationwide are abandoning the use of coal and turning to cleaner burning natural gas, as well as newer sources such as solar and wind power.

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