auto industry

One in five cars will be electric this year

February 12, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There has been lots of turbulence in the electric car industry of late. Part of it is aggressive publicity campaigns spreading misinformation and part of it is the natural fits and starts associated with major change. But apart from the ups and downs of individual companies and countries, analysts are projecting another record year for the sales of electric vehicles and are expecting that plug-in cars will account for 20% of all car sales globally. Much of the growth will be driven by China, where 38% of new car sales will be electric cars.

Global sales of plug-in cars are expected to grow by 21% this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Total projected sales are 16.7 million cars, including 1.9 million in the U.S., 3.4 million in Europe, and 9.7 million in China. Because of the rapid adoption of electric cars in China, that country is expected to reach peak gasoline demand this year. In other words, the use of gasoline in China will be diminishing from now on.

The auto industry is in flux. The traditional big automakers are currently slowing down EV manufacturing as they work to come up to speed with the technology and market demand. Meanwhile, EV-only carmakers such as Tesla in the U.S. and BYD in China are ratcheting up production. BYD is focusing on emerging economies with its lower-priced offerings.

In the U.S., EV adoption has been slowed somewhat by high interest rates and the slow rollout of EVs by the Big Three automakers. But many new vehicles by a growing list of automakers will provide customers with more and more choices of EVs to suit diverse tastes and needs.

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This Year One in Five Cars Sold Globally Will Be an EV

Photo, posted November 18, 2023, courtesy of RL via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Banning Gas-Powered Cars | Earth Wise

May 12, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The European Union has banned the sale of new gas-powered cars starting in 2035. The vote came after weeks of negotiations related to possible exemptions to the rule.

Germany lobbied for an exemption to be made for cars powered by e-fuels. These are made by combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide that has been removed from the atmosphere using processes powered by renewable energy. Because of this source of the carbon dioxide, such fuels are considered to be carbon neutral. The EU agreed to grant this exemption, so there can be cars that run only on e-fuels after 2035.

About a quarter of carbon emissions in the EU come from transportation. The new law requires a 55% drop in carbon emissions from new cars by 2030. Poland voted against the new law, while Bulgaria, Romania, and Italy abstained. (Italy wanted an exemption for biofuels, but it was not granted).

Here in the US, seven states have adopted rules banning the sale of new gas-powered cars in 2035. These are California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Washington.

California has committed to having 35% of new car sales being zero-emission vehicles by 2026, and the number rising to 68% by 2030.

As these policies proliferate around the world, the auto industry is moving ahead to keep up with them. Most automakers are planning to have substantial parts of their product line be electric by 2030. Given the financial and physical inertia involved in shifting to electric vehicle production, regardless of what happens with policies around the world, there is little possibility of turning back from the electric vehicle transition.

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EU Approves 2035 Ban on Sales of Gas-Powered Cars

Photo, posted May 31, 2012, courtesy of Mike Norton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electrifying Delivery Vehicles | Earth Wise

October 12, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Most of the buzz about electric vehicles relates to passenger cars as the auto industry is making a major transition away from gasoline power. Recently, pickup trucks have started to get some attention as well as Ford’s electric version of the F-150 truck has hit the streets and the long-awaited Tesla Cybertruck will be introduced next year. There hasn’t been as much talk about delivery vehicles, but there should be.

There are about 15 million delivery vehicles in the U.S., and they are a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. The post office alone has a quarter million of them. Such vehicles are especially attractive candidates for electrification. Most travel relatively consistent and short routes, which makes it easier for companies to be able to charge them and keep them charged.

Electrifying delivery vehicles in cities is especially important because the vehicles travel into and through residential neighborhoods, spreading pollution and particulates as they go.

Some provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act provide credits for the purchase of commercial vehicles. Light-duty vans and trucks qualify for a credit of as much as $7,500. Medium- and heavy-duty trucks qualify for credits as high as $40,000. In addition, substantial tax credits are available for the installation of charging equipment.

According to a study by the Rocky Mountain Institute, sixty percent of new truck sales could be electric by 2030. By 2035, the trucking industry could cut its emissions in half.

American companies are already stepping up to the plate. Amazon plans to deploy 100,000 electric delivery vehicles from new automaker Rivian. Walmart, UPS, FedEx, and others have also committed to electrified trucks.

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The Climate Bill Will Electrify More Delivery Vans and Trucks

Photo, posted August 1, 2021, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Policy Moves on Electric Cars | Earth Wise

February 26, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

In recent times, there have been several significant events affecting the transition to electric vehicles. The new administration has made aggressive moves toward fighting climate change. Wall Street investors have placed more value on Tesla stock than that of GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Ford combined. China, the world’s largest car market, recently mandated that most new cars must be powered by electricity within 15 years.

Against this background, the CEO of General Motors announced in late January that the company will aim to sell only zero-emission cars and trucks by 2035.

This announcement took the rest of the auto industry by surprise. In the past, the industry tended to present a united message on emissions and other policy issues. This time around, GM has stepped out in front of the issue.

GM has already committed to spending $27 billion to introduce 30 electric vehicle models by 2025 and is building a plant in Ohio to make batteries for those cars and trucks.

A key driver in the GM decision, no doubt, was an executive order signed by President Biden on his first day of office. The order directed the Environmental Protection Agency to immediately begin developing tough new tailpipe pollution regulations, designed to reduce the nation’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Even before the change in administration, five other major automakers – BMW, Ford, Honda, Volkswagen, and Volvo – had already legally bound themselves to tougher fuel economy standards in a deal with California. Those companies committed to an average fuel economy of 51 miles per gallon in 2026.

While no other large automaker has set a specific target date for selling only electric vehicles, many of them are moving in that direction. The rapid growth of Tesla is an indicator of where the auto industry is heading.

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G.M. Announcement Shakes Up U.S. Automakers’ Transition to Electric Cars

Photo, posted July 29, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hyping Electric Cars | Earth Wise

March 13, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

During this year’s Super Bowl, at least three car companies – GM, Porsche, and Audi – ran commercials for plug-in cars. This is a sign that automakers are ramping up their efforts to persuade the public that electric cars really are the future.

The auto industry is investing billions of dollars to develop electric vehicles, spurred by stricter emissions rules in places like California and concerns about climate change. In fact, more than 100 new plug-in models are expected to become available in the United States over the next five years.

In Europe, electric cars are increasingly popular. Norwegians, for example, buy more electric cars than gas cars. And several European countries have banned the sale of gas cars starting in 2025.

But in the US, enthusiasm for electric cars has been slow to build. Automakers sold fewer than 330,00 electric vehicles in the US in 2019 and more than half of those were from Tesla, which actually does not even advertise its vehicles.

The auto industry spent nearly $9 billion in national and local advertising in the US last year, but less than half a percent of that went toward promoting electric vehicles.

A big part of the problem is that car dealers are not very enthusiastic about selling electric cars, which require far less maintenance than conventional cars and have far fewer costly replacement parts to sell. As a result, the industry’s efforts to speed the transition to electric cars has been ambivalent at best.

World-wide, Tesla has sold about a million cars, mostly in the past 4 years, so there is clearly a growing demand for electric vehicles. It is up to the rest of the industry to create demand for the new cars they have committed to produce.

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Super Bowl Ads Hyped Electric Cars. But Will Anyone Buy Them?

Photo, posted October 6, 2018, courtesy of Mike Fonseca via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Can Germany Meet Its Energy Goals?

February 4, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Germany has been a global leader in efforts to decarbonize its massive economy. A national initiative known as Energiewende – or clean energy transition – has been in place since 2010 and relies heavily on renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, and energy demand management.

The program has involved some of the most aggressive deployment of renewable energy sources in the world. Germany was the first country to install 1 GW of solar energy and still has the 5th largest amount of solar power in the world despite actually being a country with fairly limited sunshine. Germany has nearly 30,000 wind turbines, most of which are onshore, unlike many other countries in northern Europe. Over the past five years, government support and cost to consumers for the shift to clean energy have totaled over $180 billion.

However, despite these efforts, Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions have not declined as rapidly as expected, even though nearly 40% of the country’s electricity now comes from renewable sources.

This lack of expected success comes as a shock to the environmentally conscious German population, nearly 90% of which supports the program.

There are two major problems Germany faces. One is that Germany is Europe’s largest producer of coal, which still generates more than a third of the country’s power. The other is that Germany’s large auto industry is still married to gas- and diesel-fueled cars and emissions from the country’s cars are a big problem.

The Energiewende program was driven by political will and investment certainty. It is unclear whether Germany can muster these forces again. The Merkel government has dragged its feet on environmental issues in recent years. It remains to be seen what effect shifting political power in Germany will have.

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Carbon Crossroads: Can Germany Revive Its Stalled Energy Transition?

Photo, posted August 15, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

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Germany’s Struggle

December 15, 2017 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Germany has a reputation as one of the greenest countries on earth. They have comprehensive recycling programs, they treasure their forests, and in recent decades, they have been aggressively working to replace both nuclear and coal-fired power plants with renewable energy sources. They have been an early world leader in solar power. And their national Energiewende or “energy turn” initiative demonstrates a strong commitment to the environment.

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