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Approaching critical global temperature thresholds

January 21, 2025 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Paris Climate Agreement is a global treaty adopted in 2015 to combat climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while striving to keep it below 1.5°C. But according to recent research, the planet is quickly approaching these critical thresholds.

An international research team led by scientists from Colorado State University, Stanford University, and ETH-Zurich in Switzerland combined insights from 10 global climate models, and – with the help of artificial intelligence – found that regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached faster than previously thought.

In fact, the researchers found that most land regions will likely surpass the critical 1.5°C threshold by 2040 or even earlier. Additionally, several regions are on track to exceed the 3.0°C threshold by 2060. Regions including Central Europe, the Mediterranean, South Asia, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to reach these thresholds faster.

The research team relied on transfer learning, a cutting-edge machine learning technique that leverages pre-trained models to tackle new, related tasks.

The research, which was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040. Of those 34 regions, 31 of them are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040, and 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.

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AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected

Photo, posted February 23, 2011, courtesy of 2011 CIAT / Neil Palmer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Solar grazing

September 16, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Agrivoltaics is the combination of solar power generation with agriculture. Generally, this has involved growing crops under and around solar panels harvesting both food and electricity. More recently, there has been increasing interest in grazing animals to manage lands used for solar power.

Enel North America, a large operator of solar farms and utility-scale battery storage facilities in Texas, has announced a partnership with Texas Solar Sheep Company to deploy more than 6,000 sheep to chow down on the greenery on eight large Texas solar sites. This is the largest known solar grazing agreement executed in the United States

Texas Solar Sheep’s flocks will graze on more than 10,000 acres of land being used for solar generation, an area roughly ¾ the size of Manhattan. Most of these sites are situated in areas with high rainfall and long growing seasons.

The American Solar Grazing Association, an organization with 950 members across 45 states, facilitates research, provides education, and develops best practices in support of a unique population of shepherds and solar developers. Their recent survey estimates that 100,000 acres of U.S. solar sites are currently being chewed on by sheep. Texas has the most installed utility-scale solar power in the country.

According to Enel, its existing solar grazing program has demonstrated substantial improvements in soil health by the additional of organic matter to the soil. Managing vegetation with sheep is also better for pollinators because sheep don’t cut down all plants the way mowing does.

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No more sheepless nights: Enel inks largest solar grazing contract

Photo, posted April 7, 2020, courtesy of Sean Nealon / Oregon State University via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Colorado River crisis

May 15, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Colorado River serves nearly 40 million people in seven U.S. states and Mexico. It provides water for 5 million acres of farmland. Increasing demand from growing populations, damming, diversion, and drought have been draining the Colorado at alarming rates. This critical resource supports countless economies, communities, and ecologies stretching from the Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California. The Colorado River essentially has made the cities of Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Denver, and Phoenix possible.

How the water of the Colorado is distributed is determined by an agreement that is over 100 years old: the Colorado River Compact. It was made at a time when people thought there was more water than really was there. And at the time, no one thought that the seven states would need to use the water they were allocated down to the last drop.

There have been various measures over the years to conserve water from the Colorado River, including the Colorado River Interim Guidelines in 2007. Those guidelines will expire in 2026 and negotiations are beginning to take place among the many stakeholders scrambling for water rights. Apart from the seven U.S. states and Mexico, there are 30 tribal nations involved. Collaborative governance is complicated when it crosses multiple jurisdictions with their own laws and legal precedents. The goal is to put in place a new agreement to protect the Colorado River.

Rapidly-growing populations in major cities, a 20-year megadrought, and historically low water levels in America’s two largest reservoirs have put enormous pressure on the Colorado River. Creating a plan to protect the lifeblood of the American West is essential.

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Addressing the Colorado River crisis

Photo, posted June 18, 2022, courtesy of Jeff Hollett via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How will we know if the world is 1.5 degrees warmer?

January 12, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Paris Climate Agreement has a goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. How do we know if we are succeeding and, more importantly, how would we know if we have failed?

This may seem like something fairly obvious, but it isn’t. Global temperatures are definitely creeping upward. This past year has been the warmest on record. In fact, the global average temperature was more than 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels. November was 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels. So, does that mean that our climate goals have already failed? Not really.

On a monthly scale there have already been individual months where warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2023. Would an entire year above the target constitute failure? Not necessarily. There really isn’t an agreed-upon answer and that in itself represents something that could undermine global efforts to tackle climate change.

If we don’t know whether we are succeeding or failing, it is more difficult to pursue success. The United Nations IPCC says the threshold will be surpassed when average warming exceeds 1.5 degrees for 20 years. But that seems like a building a mountain highway with no guardrails and hoping to be safe.

Scientists are calling for new approaches to defining a universally agreed-upon measure of global warming that could trigger urgent action to avoid further rises. What we really don’t need are justifications and excuses for continued inaction. Clearly the climate is not waiting for us to debate the issue.

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Why We Won’t Know When We’ve Passed the 1.5-Degree Threshold

Photo, posted August 2, 2018, courtesy of J Bartlett Team Rubicon/BLM for USFS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Cost Of Invasive Species | Earth Wise

September 27, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a new report published by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the United Nations, invasive species introduced to new ecosystems around the world are causing more than $423 billion in estimated losses to the global economy every year. These economic costs are incurred by harming nature, damaging food systems, and threatening human health.

According to the report, these costs have at least quadrupled every decade since 1970 and the estimates are actually conservative because it’s difficult to account for all of the effects of invasive species.

The report estimates that humans have intentionally or unintentionally introduced more than 37,000 species to places outside their natural ranges. More than 3,500 of them are considered invasive because they are harmful to their new ecosystems. Invasive nonnative species were a major factor in 60% of known extinctions of plants and animals.

Some species are relocated deliberately by the wildlife trade and international shipping. Other plants and animals end up hitching a ride with ordinary travelers as they move about by car, boat, plane, or train.

Invasions can damage human health. Mosquitos that transmit diseases like malaria, dengue fever, and the Zika virus have become invasive around the world. The wildfires in Hawaii this summer were fueled by invasive nonnative grasses in a warming climate.

Nearly every country in the world has agreed to participate in a sweeping agreement to preserve biodiversity and reduce invasive species. It is an essential global goal.

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Invasive Species Are Costing the Global Economy Billions, Study Finds

Photo, posted June 2, 2022, courtesy of Sam Stukel (USFWS) via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Keeping The Colorado River Flowing | Earth Wise

July 5, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Colorado River supplies drinking water to 40 million Americans in seven states as well as to many Mexicans and provides irrigation to 5.5 million acres of farmland. Electricity generated by dams on the Colorado powers millions of homes and businesses in the West.

A combination of drought, population growth, and climate change has reduced the river’s flows by a third in recent years compared with historical averages. Further reductions could trigger a water and power catastrophe across the Western states.

California, Arizona, and Nevada all get water from Lake Mead, the reservoir formed by the Colorado at Hoover Dam. The Interior Department determines how much water each of these three states receives. The other states that use Colorado River water get it directly from the river and its tributaries. Last summer, water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell fell enough that officials feared that the hydroelectric turbines at the Colorado’s dams would soon cease functioning.

The three states have recently struck an agreement with the federal government to take less water from the Colorado. The reductions amount to about 13% of the total water use in the lower Colorado. The government will pay about $1.2 billion to irrigation districts, cities, and Native American tribes for temporarily using less water. The states have also agreed to make additional cuts to generate the total reductions needed to prevent the collapse of the river.

The agreement runs only through the end of 2026. At that point, all seven states that rely on the river – which includes Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming – may well be facing a deeper reckoning. The forces driving the decline of the Colorado are not going away.

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A Breakthrough Deal to Keep the Colorado River From Going Dry, for Now

Photo, posted June 16, 2017, courtesy Karen and Brad Emerson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

An Agreement To Protect Biodiversity | Earth Wise

January 18, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The UN Biodiversity Conference in Montreal in December concluded with a historic deal aimed at stemming the rising tide of extinctions. Nearly 200 countries signed on to the agreement to protect 30% of the Earth’s land and sea by the end of this decade.

Part of the agreement also pledges that countries will reduce fertilizer runoff from farms by 50%, reduce the use of harmful pesticides by 50%, and stem the flow of invasive species.

Of course, all of these promises are only words unless they are backed up by actions and actions cost money. The agreement promises to direct $200 billion a year towards biodiversity by the end of this decade. Wealthy countries were urged to provide $100 billion a year to fund the actions of poorer countries, but they resisted the pressure. Eventually, they did agree to send $30 billion a year to developing countries by 2030.

It is a significant step forward to establish clear targets for stopping biodiversity loss. However, the ultimate success of the pact will depend on the willingness of countries to cooperate and compromise.

According to UN estimates, about a million species across the globe face extinction as a result of rising temperatures, air and water pollution, invasive species, and habitat loss due to development. At present, only 16% of land and 8% of the oceans are within protected areas.

The UN Environment Program stated that “for far too long humanity has paved over, fragmented, over-extracted, and destroyed the natural world on which we all depend. Now is our chance to shore up and strengthen the web of life, so it can carry the full weight of generations to come.”

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In Historic Deal, Countries Agree to Protect 30 Percent of Earth to Halt Biodiversity Loss

Photo, posted August 13, 2015, courtesy of Andrew H via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

New York Offshore Wind

September 18, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

New York has passed ambitious legislation to reduce the carbon emissions that cause climate change, but the state needs to start taking action to make those reductions possible. One such action it has taken is an agreement that will enable the construction of two large offshore wind projects.

The projects are to be built off the coast of Long Island. One will be 14 miles south of Jones Beach and the other 30 miles north of Montauk. The wind farms will be built by a division of Equinor, a major Danish energy company, and a joint venture between Orsted, another Danish company, and Eversource Energy, an American firm.

The two New York wind farms are expected to be operational within the next five years and have the capacity to produce 1,700 megawatts of electricity. That is about 20% of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s overall goal for offshore wind.

Wind farms are a major energy source in the United States, now providing about 7% of the country’s electricity. That compares with only 2% in 2010. But nearly all American wind turbines are on land. There is only one small offshore wind farm in the US off the coast of Rhode Island. Things are very different in Europe. For example, Britain expects to get 10% of its electricity from offshore wind next year, which is up from less than 1% in 2010.

Developers of offshore wind farms have struggled to gain a foothold in the US. Some projects have foundered because of cost issues, but others have faced opposition from politicians and coastal-property owners. But assuming the New York wind projects clear permitting and environmental hurdles, offshore wind may finally be on the move in the US.

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New York Awards Offshore Wind Contracts in Bid to Reduce Emissions

Photo, posted May 22, 2007, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Japan And Whaling

January 10, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The commercial hunting of whales nearly drove the giant mammals to extinction. By the 1960s, as hunting technologies improved and ships began to resemble floating factories, it became clear that whaling could not continue unchecked.

But despite all this, commercial whaling was never actually banned. Instead, in 1986, members of the International Whaling Committee (IWC) agreed to a whaling moratorium in order to allow whale stocks to recover. Pro-whaling nations like Japan, Iceland, and Norway expected the moratorium to be temporary until the whales stocks recovered, and a consensus on catch quotas could be established. But the temporary moratorium became a quasi-permanent ban, much to the delight of conservationists and to the dismay of whaling nations.

As a result, Japan recently announced it is leaving the international agreement and plans to resume commercial whaling. The agreement though never really stopped Japanese whaling in the first place, because it allowed the country to kill whales for scientific research. Japan has had an annual Antarctic catch quota of 333 minke whales, producing notoriously little in terms of whale science while producing lots of whale meat. As part of its withdrawal from the IWC, Japan will cease its Antarctic hunts and limit whalers to its own waters. Commercial Japanese whaling will resume in July.

Once popular in Japan, whale meat consumption has plummeted, falling 98% between 1962 and 2016. The industry employs fewer than 1,000 people and is dependent on government subsidies.

Many governments and conservationist groups condemned Japan’s withdrawal, declaring the move out of step with the international community. They argue that, rather than hunting whales, urgent action is needed to conserve marine ecosystems.

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