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2023

Billion-dollar weather disasters

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All sorts of weather records were set in 2023 and pretty much none of them were good news.  Among the most painful was that the U.S. suffered a record 25 weather- and climate-related disasters that caused more than a billion dollars in damage.

The increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased the frequency, intensity, and danger of extreme weather events of all types including hurricanes, severe storms, heavy rainfall, flooding, wildfire, extreme heat, and drought.

Between 1980 and 2022, the U.S. averaged eight billion-dollar weather disasters each year, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  Between 2018 and 2022, the average was 18 such disasters each year.  Last year, it was a record 25, three more than the previous record set in 2020.

The onslaught of weather disasters has put considerable pressure on disaster relief and emergency services of all kinds.  It seems like there are catastrophic events happening all the time; and in fact, there are.  The average time between billion-dollar disasters has dramatically shrunk.  In the 1980s, there was an average of 82 days between them.  Between 2018 and 2022, the lull between billion-dollar disasters dropped to an average of just 18 days.  For the first eleven months of 2023, the average time between billion-dollar weather disasters was just 10 days.

The global average temperature in 2023 was 1.4 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average and the effects have been increasingly dramatic.  We can expect that the impacts will worsen with every bit of additional warming.  There is no time to waste in taking climate action.

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A Record Number of Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters Hit the U.S. in 2023

Photo, posted September 29, 2022, courtesy of State Farm via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

What did the record warmth of 2023 mean?

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2023 was the warmest year in the 174 years of global temperature record-keeping.  According to some analyses, it may have been the warmest year in the past 125,000 years.

There were incredible heatwaves in Arizona and Argentina.  There were relentless wildfires across Canada.  The wintertime ice coverage in the seas surrounding Antarctica was at unprecedented lows

The global temperatures in 2023 did not just beat prior records; they smashed them.  Every month from June through November set all-time monthly temperature records. The US Northeast saw springlike temperatures at the end of the year.  The high temperature in Buffalo, New York on Christmas Day was 58 degrees.

Climate scientists have been predicting the warming trend that has been ongoing over the past several decades.  Indeed, computational models for 2023 called for a warm year.  Various models had a variety of projected temperatures and 2023’s heat was still broadly within the range of what was projected, although certainly at the high end.

The question is whether last year was an indicator that the planet’s warming is accelerating faster than we expect or that it just was a particularly warm year because of cyclical factors such as the El Niño that appeared last spring.

One theory that is being explored is that various types of industrial pollution have previously actually served to cool the atmosphere over time and as those sources are reduced for public health reasons, the warming effects of greenhouse gases have accelerated.

Currently, there is no consensus about why it seems to be getting warmer even faster than many climate models predict.  What there is no doubt about is that it is not a good thing.

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Earth Was Due for Another Year of Record Warmth. But This Warm?

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How will we know if the world is 1.5 degrees warmer?

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The Paris Climate Agreement has a goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.  How do we know if we are succeeding and, more importantly, how would we know if we have failed?

This may seem like something fairly obvious, but it isn’t.  Global temperatures are definitely creeping upward.  This past year has been the warmest on record.  In fact, the global average temperature was more than 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  November was 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  So, does that mean that our climate goals have already failed?  Not really.

On a monthly scale there have already been individual months where warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2023.  Would an entire year above the target constitute failure?  Not necessarily.  There really isn’t an agreed-upon answer and that in itself represents something that could undermine global efforts to tackle climate change.

If we don’t know whether we are succeeding or failing, it is more difficult to pursue success.  The United Nations IPCC says the threshold will be surpassed when average warming exceeds 1.5 degrees for 20 years.  But that seems like a building a mountain highway with no guardrails and hoping to be safe.

Scientists are calling for new approaches to defining a universally agreed-upon measure of global warming that could trigger urgent action to avoid further rises.  What we really don’t need are justifications and excuses for continued inaction.  Clearly the climate is not waiting for us to debate the issue.

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Why We Won’t Know When We’ve Passed the 1.5-Degree Threshold

Photo, posted August 2, 2018, courtesy of J Bartlett Team Rubicon/BLM for USFS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Wildfires and air quality

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The wildfires last summer in parts of the U.S. and Canada fouled the air over much of the country.  Air quality in many places was dangerous for human health.  And such fires are becoming more numerous and more intense.

A new study by the University of Iowa has assessed the effects of two decades of wildfires on air quality and human health in the continental U.S.

From 2000 to 2020, air quality in the western U.S. has gotten worse as a result of the numerous fires in that region.  More generally, all those fires have undermined the success of federal efforts to improve air quality, primarily through the reductions in automobile emissions.

American air had been getting cleaner and clearer as a result of EPA regulations on vehicle emissions, but the surge in wildfires has limited and, in some cases, erased these air quality gains.  Twenty years of efforts by the EPA to make our air cleaner have been lost in fire-prone areas and in many downwind areas.

The Iowa study looked at the concentration of black carbon, a fine-particle air pollutant from fires linked to respiratory and heart disease.  In the western U.S., black carbon concentrations have risen 86% on an annual basis.

Fires have also affected the air in the Midwest, although not to the same degree as in the west.  The eastern U.S. had no major declines in air quality during the 2000-2020 time period.  Given the episodes of smoke from Canadian wildfires experienced by the east coast this past summer – as far south as Florida – even the air in that part of the country is suffering from the spread of wildfires.

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Wildfires have erased two decades’ worth of air quality gains in western US

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The hottest year on record

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Barring some sort of massive global deep freeze late in the year, it was increasingly obvious by November that 2023 was going to be the hottest year ever recorded.  After analyzing data that showed the world saw its warmest ever November, experts around the world made the call early in December.

According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, from January to November 2023, global average temperatures were the highest on record – 1.46 degrees Celsius or 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial average.  Given that the Paris Climate Accord has the goal of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, 2023 has been an alarmingly hot year.

November itself was 1.75 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average.  The average surface air temperature for the planet was 14.22 degrees Celsius or about 57.6 degrees Fahrenheit.  Now 57 degrees doesn’t sound all that warm, but we are not accustomed to thinking in terms of the average temperature for the entire planet.  Keep in mind that the planetary average includes Antarctica and the polar north. The year as a whole had six record-breaking months and two record-breaking seasons. 

There is no reason to hope that the warming in 2023 was an anomalous occurrence and that 2024 is apt to be cooler.  With an El Niño in place in the Pacific, the new year might even be warmer than the previous one.  With continued warming, extreme weather events are likely to become even more frequent and intense, exacerbating the damage and loss of life from droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires.

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2023 is officially the hottest year ever recorded, and scientists say “the temperature will keep rising”

Photo, posted June 7, 2012, courtesy of NASA/Kathryn Hansen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

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The warmest fall

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has global climate records dating back 174 years.  As the planet continues to heat up, both September and October set new records as the warmest of those months in history.

September was the fourth month in a row of record-warm global temperatures.  Not only was it the warmest September on record, but it was also the most atypically warm month of any month of the entire 174 years of record keeping.  In fact, September 2023 was warmer than the average July from 2001-2010.

For the sixth consecutive month, September also set a monthly record for global ocean surface temperature.

Not to be outdone, the planet added a fifth straight month of record-warm temperatures in October.  The average global temperature for October was 1.34 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.  This was .24 degrees higher than the previous October record set in 2015.  And, for the seventh straight month, global ocean surface temperatures were also at a record high. 

October was the 47th consecutive October and the 536th consecutive month with global temperatures above the 20th century average.  In fact, the past 10 Octobers have been the 10 warmest Octobers in the global climate record.

With only a short time remaining in the year, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will rank as the warmest year on record for the world.  It is no cause for celebration.

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The planet just had its warmest October on record

Topping the charts: September 2023 was Earth’s warmest September in 174-year record

Photo, posted October 18, 2016, courtesy of Dave Roberts via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Summers are getting hotter

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Climate scientists have warned for decades that a seemingly small change in the global average temperature can lead to large changes in extreme heat.  So far, the world has warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius (or 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) and that has been enough to cause big changes in summer heat.

This past summer was the hottest on record.  The heat fueled deadly wildfires across the Mediterranean.  Record highs caused Chinese cities to suspend outdoor work.  Weeks of triple-digit temperatures in the U.S. southwest led to heat-related hospitalizations and deaths.

But not every recent summer has been hotter everywhere.  Even this summer saw average or even colder than average temperatures in some places.  But the distribution of summer temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere has shifted dramatically in recent decades.

Less than 1% of summers in the middle of the 20th century were extremely hot for their location.  Over the past decade, more than a quarter of summers were extremely hot for their location.

Between 1950 and 1980, about a third of summers across the hemisphere were near average in temperature; a third were considered cold; a third were hot.  Only a few summers in a few places were either extremely cold or extremely hot.  Over the past decade, the vast majority of summers have either been hot or extremely hot.

We experience summer weather in the location where we spend our time, and it is entirely possible that our own experience may have been unremarkable.  We may even have had a cool, rainy summer.  But on a global scale, summers are getting hotter and hotter and making it harder to ignore what is happening to our planet.

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It’s Not Your Imagination. Summers Are Getting Hotter.

Photo, posted August 21, 2022, courtesy of Bonnie Moreland via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Hottest Summer | Earth Wise

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It was a very rainy and relatively cool summer in much of New England as well as in New York’s Capital Region, where Earth Wise originates.  Despite that fact, according to NASA scientists, the summer of 2023 was the Earth’s hottest since global record keeping began in 1880.

The months of June, July, and August taken together were .41 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than any other summer on record as well as being 2.1 degrees warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980.

The record summer heat was marked by heatwaves in South America, Japan, Europe, and the US.  The heat exacerbated wildfires in Canada that dumped smoke across much of the northern tier of our country and also led to severe rainfall in Europe.  All sorts of temperature records were set in places across the globe.

According to NASA, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures, fueled in part by the reemergence of El Niño in the Pacific, were a major factor in the summer’s record warmth.

The record-breaking heat of this summer continues a long-term trend of warming.  Scientists around the world have been tracking the warming that is driven primarily by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.  The combination of this background warming and the marine heatwaves set the stage for new temperature records.  The El Niño was enough to tip the scales. 

In the current environment, heat waves will last longer, be hotter, and be more punishing.  The atmosphere can hold more water producing hot and humid conditions that are harder for the human body to endure.

Scientists are expecting the biggest impacts of El Niño in the early parts of next year.  We can expect to see extreme weather of many kinds over the next year.

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NASA Announces Summer 2023 Hottest on Record

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Deadly Heatwaves On The Rise | Earth Wise

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The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

A new study by the ETH Institute in Zurich has found that the risk of fatal heatwaves has risen sharply over the past 20 years, and in the future, such extreme weather will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase, particularly in Europe.  According to a paper published in Nature Medicine, more than 61,000 deaths in Europe could be blamed on the heat during the summer of 2022, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent.  When the readings from this summer are analyzed, that record is likely to be surpassed.

Heatwaves lead to excess deaths due to dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular collapse.  They are particularly deadly for the elderly, the sick, and the poor.  The ETH researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 748 cities and communities in 47 countries.   They determined the relationship between increased temperature and excess mortality.  Their models look at how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), and both 1.5 degrees (the limit sought by the Paris Agreement) and 2 degrees.

Even with the current global temperature, heatwaves that were a once-in-a-century event are now expected to occur every 10 years.  With 2 degrees of warming, such heatwaves could happen every 2 to 5 years.

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Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more deadly

Photo, posted July 22, 2009, courtesy of Matt McGee via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why Was the Summer So Hot? | Earth Wise

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Many places around the world have experienced extraordinary heat waves this summer.  The 31 days of high temperatures 110 degrees or more in Phoenix is a prime example but many other places suffered from extreme and relentless heat.  Why did this happen?

The overarching reason is climate change, which has warmed the Earth by 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit since the preindustrial era.  This change on a global level is enough to make heatwaves far more likely.  For example, the concurrent heatwaves in Europe and North America were 1000 times more likely to have occurred because of climate change.

But there hasn’t been a sudden increase in global temperature that would make this summer so much hotter.  Instead, what really has happened is three other factors all came into play at the same time.

The first is the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai, which is an underwater volcano in the South Pacific.  That eruption did not produce much in the way of planet-cooling aerosols in the atmosphere.  Instead, it vaporized huge amounts of seawater, sending water vapor into the atmosphere, which helps trap heat.

The second is a change in the amount of energy radiating from the sun.  That actually rises and falls a small amount every 11 years.  Currently, it is in the upswing and will reach its next peak in 2025.

Finally, there is the arrival of the El Niño in the Pacific, whose balmy ocean waters radiate heat into the air.

The combination of all these factors when added to the already warming climate is a recipe for temperatures to soar to uncharted highs.  We can expect more heat waves, forest fires, flash floods, and other sorts of extreme weather.

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It’s Not Just Climate Change: Three Other Factors Driving This Summer’s Extreme Heat

Photo, posted February 27, 2017, courtesy of Giuseppe Milo via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Big Year For Rooftop Solar | Earth Wise

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The global capacity of rooftop solar power grew by 49% in 2022.  Overall, the installed amount of rooftop solar grew from 79 gigawatts to 118 gigawatts last year and it is projected to reach 159 gigawatts by the end of this year.  By comparison, a typical nuclear power plant can produce 1 gigawatt; a gas-powered power plant is typically half a gigawatt.

Rooftop solar constitutes a relatively small fraction of the total global installed solar capacity, which is dominated by utility-scale solar arrays.  Total installed solar capacity rose from 950 gigawatts to 1,177 gigawatts last year and is projected to reach 1,518 gigawatts this year.  That is enough power to meet more than half the electricity demand of the European Union.

The rapid growth of solar power can only continue if there is more energy storage put in place to manage the peaks and troughs in solar output.  Countries will also need to upgrade their power grids to be able to transport excess solar power from where it is generated to where it is needed.   Bottlenecks in the grids of most of the leading solar-producing nations are already interfering with further solar development.

The overall potential for rooftop solar is based on the number of rooftops that would be suitable for solar power, which depends on the size, shading, orientation, and location of the roofs.  According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, rooftops in the United States have the potential for more than 1,000 gigawatts of solar capacity. Currently, only about 4% of US homes have rooftop solar. 

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Rooftop Solar Grew Nearly 50 Percent Globally Last Year

Photo, posted November 16, 2022, courtesy of Oliver Knight via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Record European Heat | Earth Wise

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The new year began with record-breaking heat across Europe.  In fact, on December 31 and January 1, about 5,000 all-time high temperature records for those dates were broken, in some cases by margins of more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit.

On New Year’s Day, eight European countries recorded their warmest January day ever. These were Liechtenstein, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Netherlands, Belarus, Lithuania, Denmark, and Latvia.

Many of the European cities affected by the heat wave would ordinarily be covered in snow at that time of year.  For example, Vaduz, the capital of Liechtenstein, the Czech town of Javornik, and the Polish village of Jodlownik, all recorded peak temperatures between 66 and 68 degrees Fahrenheit.

By the measure of how far above normal temperatures rose, it was the most extreme heat wave in European history.  Last summer saw record-breaking heat waves across much of Europe, but the actual temperature increases over normal were smaller than what just occurred at the beginning of the year.

The source of the exceptional heat was a warm mass of air from the west coast of Africa moving across Europe.  As is the case for any individual weather event, one cannot definitively attribute this one to climate change.  However, it is abundantly clear that because of climate change, extreme weather events of all types are becoming more frequent and more intense.

The unprecedented European weather does have the effect of helping to ease the energy crisis that has gripped the European continent.   The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to soaring natural gas prices.  The warm weather has meant a lower demand for gas, causing gas prices to drop to their lowest level since the start of the war.

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‘Uncharted territory’: January heat records smashed across Europe

Photo, posted August 13, 2019, courtesy of Herbert Frank via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Green New Year | Earth Wise

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Every year, millions of people around the world make resolutions in hopes of sparking positive changes in the new year.  Popular resolutions include improving health and fitness, traveling more, spending less, and so on.  With the New Year just around the corner, here are seven resolutions we all could make that would collectively have a major impact on the planet: 

1) Eat less meat.  Resource-intensive animal-based foods like meat, dairy, and eggs are one of the chief contributors to climate change. 

2) Get a home energy audit.  It’s a great way to understand your home’s energy footprint and discover ways to improve the energy efficiency of your home. 

3) Buy local whenever possible.  Shopping locally supports the local economy and dramatically cuts down on the carbon emissions associated with shipping.

4) Carry reusable shopping bags on errands. While disposable shopping bags are convenient, they are difficult to recycle and are often thrown away. 

5) Air dry your laundry whenever possible.  Drying clothes outside or using an indoor drying rack can save money and energy.  Americans spend about $9 billion a year on electricity to dry clothing. 

6) Purchase used or pre-owned items.  The market for second-hand items is booming, making it possible to purchase pretty much anything you want at thrift stores or online. 

7) Bring a reusable water bottle everywhere.  According to the EPA, Americans throw away enough plastic bottles each year to circle the earth five times.  Carrying your own bottle helps reduce this waste and will save you money.

As we ring in the new year this weekend, let’s raise our glasses to a cleaner and greener 2023. 

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10 Sustainable New Year’s Resolutions!

New Year’s Resolutions

Photo, posted December 31, 2014, courtesy of Doug Anderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Car-Free Zone In Berlin | Earth Wise

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The regional parliament in Berlin is considering the creation of a car-free zone in the German capital as a result of a petition from a local advocacy group.  The group – called the People’s Decision for Auto-Free Berlin – collected 50,000 signatures, which was enough to require the Berlin Senate to take up the issue.

The city ban would apply to the space ringed by the S-Bahn train line, which circles the city center.  Known as the Ringbahn, the area enclosed was already established as a low-emission zone in 2008.  It is 34 square miles in area, larger than Manhattan.  The ban would restrict vehicle use to trucks, taxis, emergency vehicles, and limited car-sharing programs.

In Berlin, a combination of regular trains, ample bike lanes, and a robust network of public buses makes getting around without a car more practical than in many other major cities.  In fact, automobiles account for only 17% of trips inside of the Ringbahn.

Even so, there is still a lot of car traffic in the city center.  Advocates for the plan believe it would lead to a city with cleaner air and more livable spaces for its citizens.

If the Berlin Senate rejects the measure, the advocacy group will seek to collect 175,000 signatures, which would force the Senate to consider the matter for a second time.  If it is rejected again, it would automatically go to a referendum in 2023.

In Europe, it appears that the revolution in transportation may not just be one about electric vehicles, but in some places may be toward the removal of vehicles in general.

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Berlin Looks to Create Car-Free Zone Larger Than Manhattan

Photo, posted March 30, 2019, courtesy of Falco Ermert via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

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