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2023

New highs for carbon dioxide

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Last year was the hottest year on record and the ten hottest years on record have in fact been the last ten years.  Ocean heat reached a record high last year and, along with it, global sea levels.  Those are rising twice as fast as they did in the 1990s.

The World Meteorological Organization reports that the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide reached a new observed high in 2023, which is the latest year for which global annual figures are available.  The level was 420 ppm, which is the highest level it has been in 800,000 years. 

The increase in carbon dioxide levels was the fourth largest one-year change since modern measurement began in the 1950s.  The rate of growth is typically higher in El Niño years because of increases from fire emissions and reduced terrestrial carbon sinks.

Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide – which are two other key greenhouse gases – also reached record high observed levels in 2023.  Levels of both of these gases have also continued to increase in 2024.

The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2024 was 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.  Apart from being the warmest year in the 175 years records have been kept, it is also above the 1.5-degree limit set as the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement.  While a single year above 1.5 degrees of warming does not mean that the efforts to limit global warming have failed, it is a strong warning that the risks to human lives, economies, and the planet are increasing.

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Carbon Dioxide Levels Highest in 800,000 Years

Photo, posted January 30, 2018, courtesy of Johannes Grim via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Clean energy in New York

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The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority – NYSERDA – recently issued a report on clean energy progress in the state during 2024.  The report highlighted continued and increased growth in heat pumps, electric vehicles, and solar energy.

Heat pumps, which provide both heating and cooling, have outsold gas furnaces countrywide for three straight years.  Air source heat pumps outsold gas furnaces by 37%.  This does not include ground source heat pumps, also known as geothermal heat pumps. New York offers Clean Heat rebates to offset the cost of installing heat pumps.

2024 was a good year for electric vehicles in New York with 90,221 new registrations.  More than 60 car models are eligible for New York’s Drive Clean state rebates.

New York achieved its Climate Act goal of having 6,000 MW of distributed solar power in October.  The state is expected to have more than 10,000 MW of distributed solar by 2030.

Nationwide, solar energy represented 64% of all the new electricity generation capacity installed in 2024, up from 55.5% in 2023.  Utility-scale solar generation in the lower 48 states was 36% higher in the summer of 2024 than in summer 2023.

NYSERDA’s report points out that converting to clean energy technologies can bring multiple benefits that include energy efficiency, cost savings, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution.

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Heat Pumps, Electric Vehicles, and Solar Scale Up Through 2024

Photo, posted April 6, 2017, courtesy of Stephen Yang / The Solutions Project via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A record warm January

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Americans experienced unusually cold and wintery weather in January.  Places like southern Louisiana and Florida saw appreciable amounts of snow.  For those who experienced January’s Arctic blast, it was a cold January.  But despite that, January was the world’s warmest on record, extending a run of extraordinary heat in which 18 out of the last 19 months saw an average global temperature more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.  In fact, the global average temperature in January was 1.75 degrees above the pre-industrial average.

The exceptional warmth was surprising to climate researchers.  It happened despite the emergence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which tend to lower global temperatures, at least for a while.

Researchers are investigating whether there is something beyond the effects of greenhouse gas emissions that is boosting temperatures to an unexpected degree.  It is true that emissions, associated with the burning of coal, gas, and oil, reached record levels in both 2023 and 2024.  But January’s warmth was still something of a surprise.

One prevalent theory is that cutting dangerous pollution is playing a role in causing global warming to accelerate.  As regulators have curbed sulfate pollution to protect people’s lungs, the cooling effect of these particles that help form more and brighter clouds has diminished.

January demonstrates that the global climate system is complex and the weather in any particular region does not necessarily reflect what is happening to the planet as a whole.

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Global Temperatures Shattered Records in January

Photo, posted December 22, 2013, courtesy of SD Anderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Thawing permafrost in the Arctic

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Permafrost covers about a quarter of the landmass in the Northern Hemisphere.  It stores vast quantities of organic carbon in the form of dead plant matter.  As long as it stays frozen, it is no threat to the climate.  But as permafrost thaws, microorganisms start breaking down that plant matter and large amounts of carbon are released into the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide and methane.

Scientists estimate that there could be two and a half times as much carbon trapped in Arctic permafrost as there is in the atmosphere today.

Thawing permafrost poses various risks to the Arctic environment and the livelihoods of its people.  According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Vienna in Austria, Umeå University in Sweden, and the Technical University of Denmark, thawing permafrost threatens the way of life of up to three million people.

To identify these risks, the research team studied four Arctic regions in Norway, Greenland, Canada, and Russia between 2017 and 2023.  The research, which was recently published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, identified five key hazards posed by the thawing permafrost: infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supply, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants.

These are present developments – not future dangers.  Global scientific cooperation, policy interventions, and investment in research are critical to mitigate the impact of thawing permafrost and address the broader consequences it brings.

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A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw

Thawing permafrost threatens up to three million people in Arctic regions

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of Benjamin Jones / USGS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Unexplained heat wave hotspots

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2023 and 2024 have been the hottest years since records have been kept.  But above and beyond the upward march of average temperatures around the globe, there has been the phenomenon of distinct regions across the globe experiencing repeated heatwaves that are so extreme that they cannot be accounted for in any models of global warming.

A new study by Columbia University’s Climate School has provided the first worldwide map of such regions, which have emerged on every continent except Antarctica.  Heatwaves in these regions have killed thousands of people, withered crops and forests, and triggered devastating wildfires.

These recent regional-scale record-breaking temperature extremes have raised questions about whether current climate models can provide adequate estimates of the relationship between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks.

Some of these regional events in recent years include a nine-day heatwave in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in June 2021 that broke daily records in some places by 54 degrees Fahrenheit.  Across Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands, and other countries, the hottest days of the year are warming twice as fast as the summer mean temperatures. 

There is yet little understanding of the phenomenon.  Some theories related to destabilization of the jet stream don’t really explain all the temperature extremes observed.  But regardless of the underlying causes, the health impacts of these heat waves are severe, as are the effects on agriculture, vegetation, and infrastructure.  Society is not built to quickly adapt to them.

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Unexplained Heat Wave ‘Hotspots’ Are Popping Up Across the Globe

Photo, posted August 16, 2022, courtesy of Alisdare Hickson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

When is a heat wave just a heat wave?

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There are lots of extreme weather events of all kinds these days.  But there have always been extreme weather events.  Climate change results in more extreme weather but not all extreme weather should be attributed to climate change.  So, how do we know if an extreme weather event is a result of the changing climate?  Communities that are affected by extreme weather events need to know whether they are likely to see more such events in the future, or if they are anomalies like a “500-year storm” or such.

Researchers at North Carolina State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Princeton University developed a routine process for evaluating extreme weather events.

The test case was an extreme heat wave that affected Texas and Louisiana in 2023.  This notable heat wave lasted almost the entire summer. The scientists used a two-step process to determine whether the heat wave was an anomaly or part of a new pattern.  They took historical data from the past 100 years to see how unusual 2023 was.  Then they compared that data with both past and present predictive computer models.  Comparing the predictive models can indicate whether climate change was a factor in the event.

In this case, a similar drought would not have been as hot 50 years earlier, which indicates that the heat wave is related to climate change and that even more intense heat waves are likely to occur in the future.

This sort of information is important for communities to prepare for future events.

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When is a Heat Wave Just a Heat Wave, and When is it Climate Change?

Photo, posted July 22, 2006, courtesy of Saturnism via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

October was another hot month

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In a year filled with unusually warm months, October 2024 ranked as the second-warmest October in the 175 years of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s records.  It was just 0.09 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the previous global record set just last year.

In our part of the world, North America had its warmest October on record.

Year-to-date, the global surface temperature has been 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, which is the warmest such period on record.  This record warmth was observed in Africa, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America.  With only a little of the year to go, predictions are that there is a greater than 99% chance that 2024 will rank as the world’s warmest year on record.

Other aspects of the warming climate were also in full evidence in October.  Global sea ice coverage was the smallest in the 46 years that it has been tracked, about 1.25 million square miles below the 1991-2020 average.  Ice extent in the Arctic was the fourth lowest on record and ice extent in the Antarctic was the second lowest on record.

Global ocean surface temperature was the second warmest for October and is the warmest ever for the period January to October.

The Atlantic basin saw five tropical cyclones during October, including the deadly and destructive Hurricane Milton that made landfall just south of Tampa Bay. 

The monthly climate postings by NOAA continue to report record-breaking temperatures and significant climate anomalies and events.  This pattern is not likely to do anything but continue in the future.

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Planet saw its 2nd-warmest October in 175-year record

Photo, posted August 21, 2018, courtesy of Fabio Achilli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

South American drought

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Vast areas of South America have been gripped in drought conditions for months.  Rivers in the Amazon basin fell to record-low levels in October.  The drought has amplified wildfires, parched crops, disrupted transportation networks, and interrupted hydroelectric power generation in parts of Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.

The drought is related to the impact of the El Niño that was present for the latter part of 2023 and the first half of this year.  El Niño typically shifts rainfall patterns in such a way that there is reduced rainfall in the Amazon.  This is especially true during the dry season months of July, August, and September.

Forecasts earlier in the year warned that there would be extreme fire conditions during the dry season.  Indeed, the Pantanal region that spans parts of southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia has experienced one of its worst fire seasons in decades.  The lack of rainfall, low soil moisture, and drawdowns of groundwater helped to amplify fires and caused them to spread faster and farther.

The drought has strained power supplies in Brazil and Ecuador because hydroelectric power stations are producing less electricity.   Snarled transportation networks with impassible rivers have left some communities struggling to get supplies. 

Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters has called the current drought the most intense and widespread Brazil has ever experienced.  Late October saw 293 Brazilian municipalities facing extreme drought.

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Intense, Widespread Drought Grips South America

Photo, posted August 13, 2010, courtesy of Colm Britton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

2023: A year of extreme climate

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There have already been all sorts of extreme weather this year in many parts of the world and undoubtedly there will be more to talk about in the coming months.  But the American Meteorological Society has recently published its State of the Climate report for 2023 and it was a year for the record books.

In 2023, the Earth’s layers of heat-reflecting clouds had the lowest extent ever measured.  That means that skies were clearer around the world than on average, a situation that amplifies the warming of the planet.  Since 1980, clouds have decreased by more than half a percent per decade. 

The most dramatic climate effect last year occurred in the world’s oceans.  About 94% of all ocean surfaces experienced a marine heatwave during the year.  The global average annual sea surface temperature anomaly was 0.13 degrees Celsius above the previous record set in 2016.  This is a huge variation for the ocean.  Ocean heatwave conditions stayed in place for at least 10 months in 2023 in vast reaches of the world’s oceans.  Ocean heat was so remarkable that climate scientists are now using the term “super-marine heatwaves” to describe what is going on. 

There were many other ways in which 2023 experienced weather extremes.  July experienced a record-high 7.9% of the world’s land areas in severe drought conditions.  During the year, most of the world experienced much warmer-than-average conditions, especially in the higher northern latitudes.  These unprecedented changes to the climate are unlikely to be one-time occurrences; 2024 is likely to be another one for the record books.  

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New Federal Report Details More of 2023’s Extreme Climate Conditions

Photo, posted May 27, 2021, courtesy of Wendy Cover/NOAA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Svalbard is melting

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Svalbard is a Norwegian archipelago between mainland Norway and the North Pole. It is one of the world’s northernmost inhabited areas and is a popular attraction for tourists.  Svalbard is famous for rugged, remote terrain of glaciers and frozen tundra sheltering polar bears, Svalbard reindeer, and Arctic foxes. The Northern Lights are visible during winter, and its summer features the “midnight sun”—sunlight 24 hours a day.  It is the home of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, which provides safe, free, and long-term storage of seed duplicates from all gene banks and nations around the world. 

Over half of Svalbard’s land area is covered with ice and accounts for about 6% of the planet’s glaciated area outside of Greenland and Antarctica.  But Svalbard is also one of the fastest-warming places on Earth.

It has suffered extreme episodes of melting this summer, brought on by exceptionally high air temperatures.  In late July and early August, temperatures hovered around 7 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this part of the Arctic Circle, causing snow and ice to rapidly melt.

According to scientists, Svalbard’s ice caps broke their all-time record for daily surface melt on July 23rd, shedding nearly half a foot of water equivalent that day, a rate five times larger than normal. 

On August 11th, the high temperature in Longyearbyen, Svalbard’s capital city, reached 68 degrees, the highest August temperature on record and 4 degrees above the previous monthly record.  Svalbard experienced its warmest summer on record in 2023.

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Svalbard Melts

Photo, posted September 21, 2016, courtesy of Christopher Michel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The hottest day on record

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There have been numerous temperature records set in recent years.  Apart from record high temperatures for many places around the world, there were 13 consecutive monthly temperature records set for the planet since the previous summer.

According to NASA data, July 22, 2024, was the hottest day on record.  July 21st and 23rd also exceeded the previous daily record, which was set in July last year.  The new record was 17.16 degrees Celsius, or about 63 degrees Fahrenheit.

We are not used to thinking in terms of the global average temperature.  That is the number that keeps climbing and that climate goals seek to keep from getting too high.  The global average temperature is about 59 degrees Fahrenheit.  So, on July 22nd, the Earth was about 4 degrees warmer than usual.  That may not seem like much, but it takes an enormous amount of energy to raise the temperature of the planet by that amount.

The NASA report shows the global daily temperature throughout the year for the years 1980 to 2024.  It clearly shows how much warmer temperatures are now compared with the previous decades.

In many places, people experienced persistent hot weather during the month of July. New York’s Capital Region saw relentless hot and humid weather.  There were 9 days with high temperatures in the 90s.   July in Albany had a monthly mean temperature of 77.3 degrees, which was the highest in any current resident’s lifetime.  This is more than 4 degrees higher than the average over the past 30 years.  The last time the average temperature was over 77 was in 1887.  July was hot.

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NASA Data Shows July 22 Was Earth’s Hottest Day on Record

Photo, posted October 22, 2016, courtesy of Susanne Nilsson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Rising fossil fuel emissions

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Almost every nation in the world has pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.  There is expanding use of renewable energy sources and growing numbers of electric cars.  But despite all this, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose again in 2023, reaching record levels.

The world’s population continues to grow and nations with large, rapidly growing populations are becoming increasingly industrialized and are embracing more and more of the trappings of modern life.  As a result, the global burning of oil, coal, and natural gas is increasing.

Analysis of 2023 date shows that emissions from fossil fuels rose 1.1 percent compared to 2022 levels.  The total fossil fuel emissions in 2023 was 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide. 

Clearly, the world continues to head in the wrong direction in order to limit global warming.  The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 278 parts per million in 1750 – considered to be the start of the industrial era – to 420 parts per million in 2023.

The rise in heat-trapping carbon dioxide along with other greenhouse gases such as methane is the primary reason that the planet’s temperature is continuing to rise.  The average global surface temperature in 2023 was 1.2 degrees Celsius – or 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit – higher than it was in the NASA baseline period of 1951-1980.  Last year was the hottest year on record.  Unfortunately, the rise in global ocean temperature was even larger, compounding the effects of global warming.

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Emissions from Fossil Fuels Continue to Rise

Photo, posted June 22, 2020, courtesy of John Morton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A surprising drop in renewable power

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Renewable power – which includes wind farms, solar farms, and hydroelectric dams – constitutes over 21% of the country’s utility-scale electricity generation, behind only natural gas power plants at 43%.  Nuclear power provides nearly 19% of our electricity and coal, which is gradually diminishing, is at 16%.

Both solar and wind power capacity have been growing rapidly in recent years and will be providing an increasing percentage of our electricity.  That being said, it turns out that utility-scale renewable electricity generation actually decreased slightly in 2023 as a result of weather-related issues.

Utility-scale renewables generated about 894,000 gigawatt hours of energy last year, which was 0.8% less than the record amount generated in 2022.

The reasons?  The biggest factor was slower wind speeds in the Midwest during the warmer weather months.  In 2023, there were fewer warm fronts and cold fronts passing through the region.  The passage of fronts is often associated with wind and precipitation. 

The other factor affecting renewable generation was a 5.9% drop in hydropower in 2023.  The main reason for the decrease was a drop in water levels at many hydroelectric dams in areas experiencing drought.

Experts explain that there is no reason to overreact to a one-year blip in renewables generation.  All three major sources of power – sun, wind, and hydroelectric – are tied to natural forces and all of them fluctuate over time.  Putting aside minor variations year-over-year, renewable electricity is on pace to more than double by the end of this decade.

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Federal Data Reveals a Surprising Drop in Renewable Power in 2023, as Slow Winds and Drought Took a Toll

Photo, posted July 5, 2014, courtesy of Patrick Finnegan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Golf courses gone wild

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Golf courses are a significant burden on the environment.  The US has 16,000 golf courses which use 1.5 billion gallons of water a day and are treated with 100,000 tons of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium each year.  In recent years, the golf industry has taken steps to lighten its environmental toll by using less water, introducing pollinator-friendly plants, and decreasing pesticide and fertilizer use.  The US has more golf courses than any other country, accounting for 42% of all courses worldwide.

There is really an oversupply of golf courses and, as a result, more golf courses have closed than have opened since 2006.  Most closed golf courses end up in the hands of commercial or residential developers, but some of them are allowed to return to nature.

For this to happen, there has to be a willing seller and, more importantly, a conservation-minded buyer who can afford both to purchase the land and to restore it to a natural state.  There have been 28 former golf courses transformed into public green spaces between 2010 and the end of 2022.  But that number seems to be growing.

In 2023, the former Cedar View Golf Course on the eastern shore of Cayuga Lake in upstate New York was bought by the Finger Lakes Land Trust.  In California, places like Santa Barbara, Marin County, and even Palm Springs have all undertaken the transformation of former golf courses into public parklands.

Rewilding a golf course is undoubtedly a disappointment to local golfers, but it can bring big benefits to animals, plants, and people. 

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After Shutting Down, These Golf Courses Went Wild

Photo, posted October 19, 2016, courtesy of Cabo Girao via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Little ice on the Great Lakes

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In an average year, the Great Lakes end up about 40% covered in ice.  But this is not an average year.  2023 was the warmest year on record and, in fact, the global temperature was more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average for the full year.  That hasn’t happened before.  As a result of the record-breaking warmth, as of mid-February, the average ice cover on the Great Lakes was only 5.9%.

Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tied their records for the lowest ice cover, which has been tracked since 1973.  Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior are at historic lows.  Some parts of the Great Lakes have experienced the winter without any ice cover.

The warming air temperatures have led to rapid ice loss and warming summer temperatures.  According to experts, if the planet continues to warm, more than 200,000 lakes may no longer freeze every winter and 5,700 lakes may permanently lose ice cover by the end of the century.

Studying the Great Lakes is important because their ice melt can be a significant indicator of the progress of global warming.  Decreasing ice cover can affect hydropower generation, commercial shipping and fishing, and have environmental impacts such as the development of plankton blooms.

Since the 1970s, there has been a 5% decline in Great Lakes ice cover per decade.  Unfrozen lakes bring more rain than snow which has environmental, cultural, and societal impacts.  The Great Lakes hold 21% of the world’s freshwater supply and over 30 million people depend on them for drinking water.  They are also linked to over $3 trillion in gross domestic product.

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Great Lakes Winter Ice Cover Averaging Just 5.9%: NOAA

Photo, posted November 7, 2007, courtesy of Jim Sorbie via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why was 2023 so hot?

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Five separate weather-tracking organizations have proclaimed 2023 as the hottest year on record. They all agreed that 2023 beat the previous record-holder – 2016 – by a wide margin.  Organizations that use a pre-industrial baseline of 1850-1900 found that 2023 was 1.45 to 1.48 degrees Celsius above the baseline.  But what caused 2023 – especially the second half of it – to be so hot?

Scientists believe that there were multiple factors that contributed to the record-breaking heat.

First and foremost is the long-term rise in greenhouse gases.  Over 100 years of burning fossil fuels along with major changes in land use (particularly deforestation) have led to a significant rise in the heat-trapping blanket of the gases in the atmosphere.

On top of this long-term trend, the return of the El Niño condition in the Pacific in May helped temperatures rise further.

At the same time, the tropical Pacific was not the only ocean that was hotter than normal.  The global sea surface temperature set new records in 2023 and there were multiple marine heat waves.  Heat trapped by the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, raising their temperatures.

Another factor is the quantity of aerosols in the atmosphere.  Many of these aerosols actually cool the atmosphere by reflecting the sun’s light back into space.  Society’s efforts to reduce air pollution and improve air quality have led to decreasing levels of aerosols.

2024 started with some seriously cold weather in some places but predictions are that this year will be roughly as warm as 2023 and possibly warmer given that the dynamics driving last year’s weather are all still in place.

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Five Factors to Explain the Record Heat in 2023

Photo, posted February 22, 2016, courtesy of Jasmin Toubi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The slow decline of coal

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Despite the fact that coal is the dirtiest and most climate-harmful energy source we have, the global demand for it hit a record high in 2023. The demand for coal grew by 1.4% worldwide, according to an analysis by the International Energy Agency.

Coal use grew by 5% in China and 8% in India.  The two countries are the world’s largest producers and consumers of coal.  Meanwhile, coal use in the U.S. and the European Union fell by 20%.

Despite this discouraging news, the IEA forecasts that coal use will decline over the next two years.  There have been declines in coal demand a few times before, but they were driven by unusual events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Covid-19 crisis.  But the IEA says that the forthcoming decline is different.  It will be driven by the formidable and sustained expansion of clean energy technologies.

According to the IEA, global coal demand will fall by 2.3% by 2026 even in the absence of new policies to curb coal use.  Forces at play will be increased hydropower in China as it recovers from drought and puts new wind and solar projects online.  China is responsible for more than half of global coal demand, but it is also responsible for more than half of the planned renewable power projects coming online over the next three years.  Experts believe that with these forthcoming projects, Chinese emissions may have peaked in 2023.

The projected drop in coal demand is still far short of what is required for the world to avoid catastrophic warming.  Much greater efforts are needed to meet international climate targets.

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After a Record 2023, Coal Headed for Decline, Analysts Say

Photo, posted August 25, 2015, courtesy of Jeremy Buckingham via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Billion-dollar weather disasters

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All sorts of weather records were set in 2023 and pretty much none of them were good news.  Among the most painful was that the U.S. suffered a record 25 weather- and climate-related disasters that caused more than a billion dollars in damage.

The increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased the frequency, intensity, and danger of extreme weather events of all types including hurricanes, severe storms, heavy rainfall, flooding, wildfire, extreme heat, and drought.

Between 1980 and 2022, the U.S. averaged eight billion-dollar weather disasters each year, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  Between 2018 and 2022, the average was 18 such disasters each year.  Last year, it was a record 25, three more than the previous record set in 2020.

The onslaught of weather disasters has put considerable pressure on disaster relief and emergency services of all kinds.  It seems like there are catastrophic events happening all the time; and in fact, there are.  The average time between billion-dollar disasters has dramatically shrunk.  In the 1980s, there was an average of 82 days between them.  Between 2018 and 2022, the lull between billion-dollar disasters dropped to an average of just 18 days.  For the first eleven months of 2023, the average time between billion-dollar weather disasters was just 10 days.

The global average temperature in 2023 was 1.4 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average and the effects have been increasingly dramatic.  We can expect that the impacts will worsen with every bit of additional warming.  There is no time to waste in taking climate action.

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A Record Number of Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters Hit the U.S. in 2023

Photo, posted September 29, 2022, courtesy of State Farm via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

What did the record warmth of 2023 mean?

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2023 was the warmest year in the 174 years of global temperature record-keeping.  According to some analyses, it may have been the warmest year in the past 125,000 years.

There were incredible heatwaves in Arizona and Argentina.  There were relentless wildfires across Canada.  The wintertime ice coverage in the seas surrounding Antarctica was at unprecedented lows

The global temperatures in 2023 did not just beat prior records; they smashed them.  Every month from June through November set all-time monthly temperature records. The US Northeast saw springlike temperatures at the end of the year.  The high temperature in Buffalo, New York on Christmas Day was 58 degrees.

Climate scientists have been predicting the warming trend that has been ongoing over the past several decades.  Indeed, computational models for 2023 called for a warm year.  Various models had a variety of projected temperatures and 2023’s heat was still broadly within the range of what was projected, although certainly at the high end.

The question is whether last year was an indicator that the planet’s warming is accelerating faster than we expect or that it just was a particularly warm year because of cyclical factors such as the El Niño that appeared last spring.

One theory that is being explored is that various types of industrial pollution have previously actually served to cool the atmosphere over time and as those sources are reduced for public health reasons, the warming effects of greenhouse gases have accelerated.

Currently, there is no consensus about why it seems to be getting warmer even faster than many climate models predict.  What there is no doubt about is that it is not a good thing.

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Earth Was Due for Another Year of Record Warmth. But This Warm?

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How will we know if the world is 1.5 degrees warmer?

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The Paris Climate Agreement has a goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.  How do we know if we are succeeding and, more importantly, how would we know if we have failed?

This may seem like something fairly obvious, but it isn’t.  Global temperatures are definitely creeping upward.  This past year has been the warmest on record.  In fact, the global average temperature was more than 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  November was 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  So, does that mean that our climate goals have already failed?  Not really.

On a monthly scale there have already been individual months where warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2023.  Would an entire year above the target constitute failure?  Not necessarily.  There really isn’t an agreed-upon answer and that in itself represents something that could undermine global efforts to tackle climate change.

If we don’t know whether we are succeeding or failing, it is more difficult to pursue success.  The United Nations IPCC says the threshold will be surpassed when average warming exceeds 1.5 degrees for 20 years.  But that seems like a building a mountain highway with no guardrails and hoping to be safe.

Scientists are calling for new approaches to defining a universally agreed-upon measure of global warming that could trigger urgent action to avoid further rises.  What we really don’t need are justifications and excuses for continued inaction.  Clearly the climate is not waiting for us to debate the issue.

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Why We Won’t Know When We’ve Passed the 1.5-Degree Threshold

Photo, posted August 2, 2018, courtesy of J Bartlett Team Rubicon/BLM for USFS via Flickr.

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