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Food, timber, and climate change

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The sights of coffee plantations in California and vineyards in Britain are becoming more common as the climate changes. But behind what sounds like a success story is a sobering one: climate change is shifting the regions suitable for growing food all around the world. 

According to a new study by researchers from the University of Cambridge, as crop growing shifts northwards, a squeeze will be put on the land needed to produce timber.  The timber these trees produce is used to make everything from paper and cardboard to furniture and buildings.

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, more than 25% of existing forestry land – an area equivalent in size to India – will become more suitable for agriculture by the end of the century if climate change continues unabated.  Approximately 90% of this current forestry land is located in Canada, China, Russia, and the United States.    

Global timber production is worth more than $1.5 trillion every year.  Recent heat waves and wildfires have caused huge losses of timber forests around the world. 

According to the World Bank, the value of the global food system is estimated to be roughly $8 trillion annually.  Scientists expect climate change to cause some areas to become too hot for growing food, particularly in the tropics and southern Europe. 

With the global demand for food and the global demand for wood both projected to double by 2050, the increasing climate change-driven competition between the two is set to be an emerging issue in the coming decades. 

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Global timber supply threatened as climate change pushes cropland northwards

Do the costs of the global food system outweigh its monetary value?

Photo, posted October 24, 2018, courtesy of Bill Smith via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Thousands of species threatened

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The International Union for the Conservation of Nature is an organization working in the field of nature conservation and sustainable use of natural resources.  The IUCN has been around for nearly 75 years and is the global authority on the status of the natural world and the measures needed to safeguard it.

In its latest accounting, the IUCN has determined that more than 44,000 species worldwide are threatened with extinction.  Among them, nearly 7,000 face an immediate threat from climate change.

The organization tracks 157,000 species to compile its Red List and found that climate change poses a growing threat to many kinds of wildlife. At particular risk are freshwater fish including Atlantic salmon, which are now classified as “Near Threatened.” 

In all, about 25% of freshwater fish are threatened with extinction.  This is in part driven by rising sea levels which causes saltwater to be driven up into rivers.  Some 41% of amphibians are threatened with extinction, in part due to more intense heat and drought.  Many populations of green turtles are at risk of extinction because of rising temperatures lowering hatch rates and rising sea levels flooding nests.

It isn’t just animals at risk.  For example, big leaf mahogany, one of the world’s most commercially sought-after timber trees, has moved from Vulnerable to Endangered on IUCN’s Red List.  Thousands of trees have been added to the Red List, many of which are timber species, and some are keystone species in forests.

Endangered and threatened species are often irreplaceable parts of ecosystems which provide humans with many services that only the natural world can.

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More Than 44,000 Species Now Threatened With Extinction

Photo, posted November 22, 2010, courtesy of E. Peter Steenstra/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Counting Trees | Earth Wise

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Scientists estimate that there are about 3 trillion trees on the earth.  A huge number but probably half as many as there were before people entered the picture.  And we’re losing about 10 billion trees a year to toilet paper, timber, farmland expansion, and other human activity.  Trees play a crucial role in taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and storing it away.  For this reason, trees have become an integral part of the effort to mitigate climate change.

There are major initiatives underway around the world to plant more trees.  Part of this is driven by the increasing use of carbon credits by companies trying to offset their carbon emissions.   These credits are earned by either planting new trees or paying farmers or other landowners not to cut down existing trees.  But how many trees are actually planted and how many survive over time?

Whether these efforts are really resulting in more trees and more carbon storage is not easy to determine.  Current international inventories of global tree-sequestered carbon are subject to great uncertainty.

Researchers from the University of Copenhagen and NASA have developed a method for mapping large numbers of trees and determining their carbon content.  Using artificial intelligence techniques to analyze ultra-high-resolution satellite images, they can count trees, determine their individual species, and measure their carbon content.

A study of images from Africa’s Sahel region found that it is home to nearly 10 billion trees that are currently storing 840 million tons of carbon.

Now that the groundwork for this new methodology is complete, it is ready to be deployed by public agencies, NGOs, and other interested in monitoring the numbers of trees and their carbon content.

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The counting of nine billion trees could help manage climate credits and nature restoration

Photo, posted October 27, 2018, courtesy of Ian Dick via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How To Meet Protected Land Targets | Earth Wise

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More than half of the world’s countries have set a target of setting aside 30% of land and sea areas across the globe for conservation by 2030, in order to preserve and protect nature and essential services to people.  This pledge creates some difficult questions to answer.

What sorts of land should be protected and where should it be located?  What effects of these new land protections will there be on carbon emissions and the climate and on land usage for food production and energy generation?  Policymakers have to grapple with such questions in order to move forward on these ambitious biodiversity protection goals.

A recent study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory attempts to answer many of these questions.  The study found that meeting the 30% goal could lead to substantial regional shifts in land use and, in some cases, still fail to protect some of the most important biodiversity hotspots.

Protecting land entails tradeoffs with other land uses and can have negative impacts on the agricultural sector as well as land use for bioenergy crops and forest land use for timber.

In particular, the study found that the amount of land used for crops for conversion into biofuels could be significantly impacted by doubling current protected areas while still preserving the amount of land used for food crops.  This is particularly true for land in Russia and Canada.

The study also found that while it may be possible to meet the 30% target by only protecting agriculturally unsuitable land, it may not end up protecting many of the world’s 36 identified biodiversity hotspots.  The uneven distribution of species has a significant bearing on how to manage the conservation of biodiversity.

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Doubling Protected Lands for Biodiversity Could Require Tradeoffs With Other Land Uses, Study Finds

Photo, posted September 19, 2020, courtesy of John Brighenti via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Chocolate And Deforestation | Earth Wise

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The world consumes 7.5 million tons of chocolate a year.   Americans spend an average of $145 a year per capita on chocolate.  And we are not even the world leaders.  The Swiss eat an average of 22 pounds per person and the overall European chocolate market is the world’s largest.

A market valued over $100 billion a year is bound to have its issues for the environment, human rights, and other social issues, and chocolate is no exception.  The global cacao industry grapples with problems with child labor, poverty, deforestation, sustainability and other environmental issues.  The response of companies across the industry varies greatly. A website called chocolatescorecard.com keeps track of how many in the industry are doing.

Recently, lawmakers in the European Union have been putting together a landmark legislative package that addresses deforestation risks in the supply chains of a number of commodities including cattle, timber, rubber, soy, palm oil, and cacao. The proposed law restricts companies that import cacao and sell chocolate to import only what doesn’t destroy or degrade forests. 

Voluntary promises by big chocolate makers to save forests in major cacao-producing countries (like Ivory Coast, Ghana, Indonesia, and Nigeria) are difficult to keep.  Farmers sell to brokers who sell to trading companies that then sell to chocolate makers.  Tracing the origins of chocolate is difficult.  Ultimately, fairly compensating farmers is the only way they are likely comply with deforestation regulations and there are unfortunately many pockets to fill before that is likely to happen.

It is up to consumers to encourage companies to do the right thing by making their buying choices appropriately.

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The Forest in Your Chocolate

The Chocolate Scorecard

Photo, posted January 12, 2010, courtesy of Lee McCoy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Timber Cities | Earth Wise

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More than half of the world’s population lives in cities and by 2100, this percentage is predicted to be much higher.  This means that more homes will be built with steel and concrete, which both have very large carbon footprints.  According to a study by the Potsdam Institute in Germany, housing a growing population in homes made of wood instead could avoid more than 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions over the remainder of the century.  This is about 10% of the remaining global carbon budget for staying below the 2-degree Celsius climate target.

The study presents the alternative of housing new urban populations in mid-rise buildings – no more than 4-12 stories high – that are substantially made of wood.  Wood is a renewable resource that carries the lowest carbon footprint of any comparable building material.  Trees take up CO2 from the atmosphere to grow.  Producing engineered wood releases far less CO2 than production of concrete and steel and the finished product continues to store carbon.

The study shows that sufficient wood for new mid-rise urban buildings can be produced without a major impact on food production.  The wood would come from timber plantations as well as natural forests.  The study also looked at biodiversity impacts and ways that ecosystems could be protected while still providing the necessary timber.

Overall, the Potsdam study demonstrates that urban homes made out of wood could play a vital role in climate change mitigation based on their long-term carbon storage potential coupled with the reduced utilization of the carbon-intensive concrete and steel industries.

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Living in timber cities could avoid emissions – without using farmland for wood production

Photo, posted May 24, 2005, courtesy of Stig Anderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Fighting Climate Change With Trees

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We cut down forests all around the world for a myriad of reasons, including livestock grazing, agricultural production, timber, and urban development.  But what if we stopped cutting down forests for these things and additionally grew new forests on vacant lots and any other available parcels of land on earth?  What impact could this have on our survival? 

For the first time, scientists have quantified what impact this plan could have.  According to a new study by researchers at ETH Zurich – a university that specializes in science, technology, and engineering – the planet could support nearly 2.5 billion additional acres of forest without shrinking current cities and farms.  When all those acres of forest mature, the trees could store an extra 200 gigatons of carbon.  This reforestation could stave off the most devastating impacts of global climate change. 

Russia could restore the most acres of forest – 373 million acres to be precise – followed by the United States with 255 million acres and Canada with 193 million acres.  Australia, Brazil, and China also have large areas well-suited for forest restoration. 

The average global temperature has risen by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the industrial age with its surge in greenhouse gas emissions.  Temperatures are projected to rise even more in the coming years as the planet continues to warm.   

Trees absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in their roots and branches.  The absorbed carbon becomes part of the soil when trees die and decompose, and it can linger there for millennia depending on things like temperature and soil management.  Trees are critical in the fight against climate change. 

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How trees could save the climate

Photo, posted June 18, 2011, courtesy of K.W. Barrett via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Restoration Economy

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Deforestation is one of the largest contributors to climate change.  Forests cover about 30% of the world’s land area and are a crucial sink for carbon dioxide.   Over time, we have been steadily reducing the amount of forest in the world to obtain wood and timber, open up farmland, build towns and cities, produce paper, make palm oil, and mine for minerals.

[Read more…] about The Restoration Economy

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