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South American drought

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Vast areas of South America have been gripped in drought conditions for months.  Rivers in the Amazon basin fell to record-low levels in October.  The drought has amplified wildfires, parched crops, disrupted transportation networks, and interrupted hydroelectric power generation in parts of Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.

The drought is related to the impact of the El Niño that was present for the latter part of 2023 and the first half of this year.  El Niño typically shifts rainfall patterns in such a way that there is reduced rainfall in the Amazon.  This is especially true during the dry season months of July, August, and September.

Forecasts earlier in the year warned that there would be extreme fire conditions during the dry season.  Indeed, the Pantanal region that spans parts of southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia has experienced one of its worst fire seasons in decades.  The lack of rainfall, low soil moisture, and drawdowns of groundwater helped to amplify fires and caused them to spread faster and farther.

The drought has strained power supplies in Brazil and Ecuador because hydroelectric power stations are producing less electricity.   Snarled transportation networks with impassible rivers have left some communities struggling to get supplies. 

Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters has called the current drought the most intense and widespread Brazil has ever experienced.  Late October saw 293 Brazilian municipalities facing extreme drought.

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Intense, Widespread Drought Grips South America

Photo, posted August 13, 2010, courtesy of Colm Britton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Food, timber, and climate change

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The sights of coffee plantations in California and vineyards in Britain are becoming more common as the climate changes. But behind what sounds like a success story is a sobering one: climate change is shifting the regions suitable for growing food all around the world. 

According to a new study by researchers from the University of Cambridge, as crop growing shifts northwards, a squeeze will be put on the land needed to produce timber.  The timber these trees produce is used to make everything from paper and cardboard to furniture and buildings.

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, more than 25% of existing forestry land – an area equivalent in size to India – will become more suitable for agriculture by the end of the century if climate change continues unabated.  Approximately 90% of this current forestry land is located in Canada, China, Russia, and the United States.    

Global timber production is worth more than $1.5 trillion every year.  Recent heat waves and wildfires have caused huge losses of timber forests around the world. 

According to the World Bank, the value of the global food system is estimated to be roughly $8 trillion annually.  Scientists expect climate change to cause some areas to become too hot for growing food, particularly in the tropics and southern Europe. 

With the global demand for food and the global demand for wood both projected to double by 2050, the increasing climate change-driven competition between the two is set to be an emerging issue in the coming decades. 

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Global timber supply threatened as climate change pushes cropland northwards

Do the costs of the global food system outweigh its monetary value?

Photo, posted October 24, 2018, courtesy of Bill Smith via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Shifting Climate Attitudes – Even In Texas | Earth Wise

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Any conversation about climate policy and energy in the United States has to take Texas into consideration.  Texas leads the nation in energy production, providing more than one-fifth of U.S. domestically produced energy.  Texas also uses more energy than any other state and accounts for almost one-seventh of total U.S. energy consumption.  The state’s industrial sector, which includes petroleum refining and chemical manufacturing, accounts for almost half of Texas energy consumption.

As a result, longstanding skepticism among Texans toward the climate movement has represented a real impediment in developing and implementing effective climate policy in this country.  But according to new research at the University of Houston, attitudes in Texas have changed and now mirror those in the rest of the United States.

About 80% of Americans believe that climate change is happening, and now about 81% of Texans hold the same view.  Two out of three Americans are worried about climate change; more than 60% of Texans agree.

Nationwide, 55% agree that the oil and gas industries have deliberately misled people on climate change; 49% of Texans agree. 64% of Americans say hydraulic fracking has a negative effect on the environment and 61% of Texans agree.  People everywhere are willing to pay more for carbon-neutral energy, and a higher premium for gasoline as well.

Mitigation strategies for climate change are not well understood.  While 61% nationwide have heard of carbon taxes, less than half are familiar with carbon management, and only a third have heard of carbon pricing.

As the U.S. heads toward reengaging in efforts to address climate change, Texans appear to have caught up with the rest of the nation.

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Attitudes About Climate Change Are Shifting, Even in Texas

Photo, posted October 1, 2011, courtesy of Steve Rainwater via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Marine Life Moving The Wrong Way | Earth Wise

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As the oceans have warmed in recent decades, various marine species ranging from whales to corals have begun to shift poleward in search of cooler waters.  But a new study, reported in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that many sedentary marine species – including snails, worms, and mussels – are actually being transported in the wrong direction.

What is happening is that bottom-dwelling species – also known as benthic species – in the northwest Atlantic Ocean are spawning earlier in the year because of the warmer water temperatures.  But earlier in the year is when ocean currents travel southward.  As a result, the larvae of these animals are being carried into warmer waters rather than cooler ones, threatening their survival and shrinking their ranges.  These larvae grow into adults in these warmer regions and are basically trapped there.  This creates a feedback loop where the situation for the species gets worse and worse.  Species like common sand dollars and the economically important blue mussel have had a 30 to 50% contraction of their ranges.

The result is that a number of bottom-dwelling species that previously were quite abundant have entirely disappeared from the outer shelf.

The researchers at Rutgers University likened this “wrong-way migration” of bottom-dwelling marine life to so-called elevator-to-extinction events that have been taking place in mountainous regions.  This is where species such as birds and butterflies move to higher and higher elevations to escape rising temperatures until there is nowhere else for them to go.

The essential fact that this research reveals is that species don’t necessarily move to places where the climate is congenial for them.  They may unfortunately end up migrating to even worse conditions.

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As Oceans Warm, Some Species Are Moving in the Wrong Direction

Photo, posted June 10, 2016, courtesy of James_Seattle via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Living In Extreme Heat | Earth Wise

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Global climate change has already left observable effects on the planet.  Glaciers have shrunk, trees are flowering sooner, plant and animal ranges have shifted, and so on. Many effects of climate change that scientists had predicted in the past are now occurring.  The loss of sea ice, intensifying heat waves, and accelerating sea level rise are some examples.

According to a new study recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is going to affect humans earlier, harder, and more widely than previously projected.  The research team found that one billion people will be either displaced or endure insufferable heat for every one degree Celsius rise in global temperatures.  

Under a worst case climate scenario, land that one third of the world’s population currently calls home will be as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara desert within 50 years.  Even under a more optimistic climate outlook, 1.2 billion people will still be exposed to temperatures outside the climate niche in which humans have thrived for at least 6,000 years.

The majority of the human population has always lived in regions where the average annual temperatures were between 43 degrees Fahrenheit and 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  These are ideal temperatures for human health and for food production.  But this temperature range is shrinking and shifting as a result of climate change. 

The study’s authors predict there will be more change in the next 50 years than there has been in the past 6,000 years.  They hope their findings will convince policymakers to accelerate their plans for emissions reductions and other climate mitigation strategies.   

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Future of the human climate niche

One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years – study

Photo, posted November 22, 2008, courtesy of Ronnie Finger via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bird Migration And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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A new study of bird migration shows the migration patterns are shifting as a result of climate change.   Researchers at Colorado State University, the University of Massachusetts, and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, looked at the impacts of climate change on a continental scale.

The team looked at the nocturnal migratory behaviors of hundreds of species representing billions of birds using radar and other data.  They found that spring migrants are likely to pass certain stops earlier now than they would have 20 years ago.  Temperature and migration timing are closely aligned and the greatest changes in migration timing are occurring in regions warming most rapidly.  During the fall, shifts in migration were less apparent.

Migratory birds play an important role in ecosystems.  They consume insects, disperse seeds, and perform various other significant functions. Birds serve as critical metrics of the health of ecosystems.

Bird migration is a global phenomenon that can provide unique visibility into changes in the climate.  The ability to look at it on a global scale has only recently become practical as a result of big data technology and cloud computing.  The team was able to crunch the numbers for the study in 48 hours, a task that previously would have taken over a year of continuous computing.

The findings have implications for understanding future patterns of bird migration because birds depend on food and other resources as they travel.  As the climate changes, the timing of blooming vegetation or the emergence of insects may end up out of sync with the passage of migratory birds.  This could have negative consequences for the health of migratory birds.

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Bird migration timing skewed by climate, new research finds

Photo, posted November 5, 2019, courtesy of Jerry Kirkhart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Shifting Ecosystems

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The Great Plains ecosystem has been shifting northward over the past fifty years, driven by climate change, wildfire suppression, energy development, land use changes, and urbanization.  The ecosystem is an area historically rich with grasslands and shrub steppe and is prime habitat for grassland birds.

According to a recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the northernmost ecosystem boundary of the Great Plains has moved more than 365 miles north since 1970, amounting to about 8 miles a year.  The region’s southernmost ecosystem boundary has shifted 160 miles north, or about 4 miles a year.

The study used bird distribution data as an indicator of shifting ecosystem boundaries.  The researchers analyzed 46 years of data for 400 bird species across a 250-mile-wide strip stretching from Texas to North Dakota.  They tracked how the birds’ distributions changed as a measure of how these ecosystems were shifting.

While climate change has been a major driver of these ecosystem shifts since the 1970s, several other factors such as wildfire trends, land use changes, and invasion of tree species into grassland habitat have also played a role.  Like most things in ecological systems, the changes are likely to have multiple causes.  One cannot really separate causes like tree invasions, warming climate, and wildfires, as they are all interrelated.

Using bird distribution patterns for tracking ecosystem shifts could be a useful tool for scientists and land managers in the coming decades to give them an early warning of how habitats are changing in response to rising global temperatures and therefore allow them to take action to protect vulnerable species.

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Great Plains’ Ecosystems Have Shifted 365 Miles Northward Since 1970

Photo, posted March 24, 2017, courtesy of Rick Bohn / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)