polar vortex

Climate Change And Harsh Winters

July 15, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

In recent years, there have been some unusually harsh winters in North America and Central Europe. This past January, the Midwestern US experienced extreme cold temperatures. We have all become familiar with the term ‘polar vortex’ and its role in sending cold air to middle latitudes and it is generally agreed that unusual behavior by the jet stream is the primary cause of the extreme winter weather.

For years, climate researchers around the world have been investigating the question as to whether the increasingly common wandering of the jet stream is a product of climate change or is a random phenomenon associated with natural variations in the climate system.

The jet stream is a powerful band of westerly winds over the middle latitudes that push major weather systems from west to east. These days, the jet stream is increasingly faltering. Instead of blowing along a straight course parallel to the equator, it sweeps across the Northern Hemisphere in massive waves, producing unusual intrusions of Arctic air into the middle latitudes.

Atmospheric researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany have now developed a climate model that can accurately predict the frequently observed winding course of the jet stream. The breakthrough combines their global climate model with a new machine learning algorithm on ozone chemistry. Using their new combined model, they can now show that the jet stream’s wavelike course in winter and subsequent extreme weather outbreaks are the direct result of climate change. The changes in the jet stream are to a great extent caused by the decline in Arctic sea ice, according to the results of the investigations. The results are not surprising but there is now a detailed model to support the hypothesis.

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A warming Arctic produces weather extremes in our latitudes

Photo, posted January 11, 2011, courtesy of Carl Wycoff via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Polar Vortex

February 20, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

This winter has seen some brutally-cold weather in many places, some of it record-breaking. Predictably, some climate-change deniers point to this as evidence that the climate is not warming at all. They are quite wrong.

For starters, it is essential to understand the difference between climate and weather. Climate is the average weather patterns in a region over extended periods of time. Weather is the short-term fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, barometric pressure, wind, and so forth. There can be extremes in weather of many types in a given climate region including very cold weather in a warming climate.

The recent cold weather events in the U.S. stem from the flow of Arctic air into southern regions. Such flows are impacted dramatically by the behavior of the jet stream. These high-altitude east-to-west winds are driven by temperature differences between cold arctic air and warm tropical air and play a huge role in our weather.

The Arctic has seen extremely unusual warming due to the changing climate, weakening and fracturing the polar vortex, which is a persistent low-pressure area near the pole. The changing air flow from the Arctic causes the jet stream to take wild swings. When it swings further south, it causes cold air to reach farther south. These swings tend to hang around for a while, leading to extended periods of cold weather in the winter and, actually, extended periods of warm weather or even droughts in the summer. Studies have predicted that extreme, deadly weather events could increase by as much as fifty percent by 2100.

As more Arctic air flows into southern regions, North America can expect to see harsher winters. The warming climate doesn’t always lead to warmer weather.

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Why cold weather doesn’t mean climate change is fake

Photo, posted January 30, 2019, courtesy of Kyle via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cold And Snow From Global Warming

April 4, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Arctic has been experiencing record warm temperatures and record low sea ice levels. During February, there were nine days in a row with temperatures averaging 27 degrees above normal and often above freezing. Over the previous 20 years, there were only two previous readings above freezing in February – once in 2011 and once last year.

Extreme Cold And Climate Change

December 26, 2016 By EarthWise

Global climate change is typically referred to as global warming and that name implies that things are getting warmer all the time. Well, the planet as a whole is, as measured by the planet-wide mean temperature, which continues to rise over time.