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Our cities are sinking

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A new study by the Columbia University Climate School has found that all of the 28 most populous cities in the United States are sinking to some extent.  This phenomenon of subsidence is not just taking place in cities on the coast, where relative sea level is an issue, but also in cities in the interior.

The primary cause of subsidence is large-scale groundwater extraction for human use.  When water is withdrawn from aquifers made up of fine-grained sediments, the pore spaces formerly occupied by water can eventually collapse, leading to compaction below and sinkage at the surface.

The fastest sinking city in the US is Houston, with more than 40% of its area subsiding more than 5 millimeters a year and 12% sinking at twice that rate.  Some local spots are going down as much as 5 centimeters a year.   These seem like very small numbers but the fact that the subsidence is often not uniform across an urban area means that there are stresses to building foundations and other infrastructure.  Parts of Las Vegas, Washington D.C., and San Francisco have particularly fast sinking zones.

There are other causes of subsidence.  In Texas, pumping of oil and gas adds to the phenomenon.  A 2023 study found that New York City’s more than one million buildings are pressing down on the Earth so hard that they may be contributing to the city’s ongoing subsidence.  About 1% of the total area of the country’s 28 largest cities faces some danger from uneven subsidence.

Overall, some 34 million Americans live in cities affected by subsidence.  Global cities facing especially rapid subsidence include Jakarta, Venice, and here in the U.S., New Orleans.

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All of the Biggest U.S. Cities Are Sinking

Photo, posted December 27, 2012, courtesy of Katie Haugland Bowen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

La Niña has arrived

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After seven months of waiting following the end of the recent El Niño condition, La Niña finally showed up in the eastern Pacific Ocean in early December.

El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide.  Normally, trade winds in the Pacific blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia.  To replace the warm water, cold water rises from the depths.  During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas.  As a result, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual.

During La Niña, trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia.  This results in more upwelling of cooler water from the depths.  This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.  During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North.

According to the report published in January by NOAA, the La Niña that has arrived is not a particularly strong one.  Sea surface temperatures are only about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit below average in the tropical Pacific.  The report also suggests that the La Niña condition may not stick around very long.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon adds a natural source of year-to-year variability in global temperatures.  The presence of La Niña for at least part of this year may temporarily keep the lid on rapidly climbing global temperatures.

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La Niña Is Here

Photo, posted November 23, 2011, courtesy of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Unexplained heat wave hotspots

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2023 and 2024 have been the hottest years since records have been kept.  But above and beyond the upward march of average temperatures around the globe, there has been the phenomenon of distinct regions across the globe experiencing repeated heatwaves that are so extreme that they cannot be accounted for in any models of global warming.

A new study by Columbia University’s Climate School has provided the first worldwide map of such regions, which have emerged on every continent except Antarctica.  Heatwaves in these regions have killed thousands of people, withered crops and forests, and triggered devastating wildfires.

These recent regional-scale record-breaking temperature extremes have raised questions about whether current climate models can provide adequate estimates of the relationship between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks.

Some of these regional events in recent years include a nine-day heatwave in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in June 2021 that broke daily records in some places by 54 degrees Fahrenheit.  Across Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands, and other countries, the hottest days of the year are warming twice as fast as the summer mean temperatures. 

There is yet little understanding of the phenomenon.  Some theories related to destabilization of the jet stream don’t really explain all the temperature extremes observed.  But regardless of the underlying causes, the health impacts of these heat waves are severe, as are the effects on agriculture, vegetation, and infrastructure.  Society is not built to quickly adapt to them.

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Unexplained Heat Wave ‘Hotspots’ Are Popping Up Across the Globe

Photo, posted August 16, 2022, courtesy of Alisdare Hickson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Beware of the blob

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For the past 10 years, there have been several occurrences of a vast expanse of ocean stretching from Alaska to California in which water temperatures are as much as 7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal.  Known jocularly as “the Blob,” the phenomenon can last for several years and decimates fish stocks, starves seabirds, creates blooms of toxic algae, prevents salmon from returning to rivers, and displaces sea lions and whales.

Until recently, there was no accepted explanation for this abrupt ocean heating.  Climate change, even combined with natural cycles like El Niños, is not enough to account for it.

In depth analysis by an international team of researchers has found that the extraordinary heating is the result of a dramatic cleanup of Chinese air pollution.  The decline of smog particles, which to some extent shield the planet from the sun’s rays, has accelerated warming and set off a chain of atmospheric events across the Pacific, essentially cooking the ocean.

This is an example of what can be called the pollution paradox in which global warming is actually increased when air pollution is reduced.  Reduced air pollution on the US West Coast has even been identified as a factor contributing to increased wildfires.  However, air pollution causes more than 4 million premature deaths from cancers and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases each year. 

Nobody thinks that we should stop cleaning up the air to slow down global warming.  The only viable solution is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as possible.

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Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming

Photo, posted December 18, 2017, courtesy of SGUP via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

El Niño Will Likely Return | Earth Wise

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El Niño, a weather phenomenon triggered by warm waters in the eastern Pacific, is likely to return this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization.  The Pacific has been in the cooler La Niña phase for the past 3 years, which is unusual, but that appears to be coming to a close.  According to the WMO, there is an 80% chance that the Pacific will shift to the El Niño phase before fall.

Record hot years typically coincide with El Niño, which adds to the ongoing warming trend in the climate.   There is not yet a clear picture of how strong the forthcoming El Niño event will be or how long it might last, but even a mild El Niño could affect precipitation and temperature patterns around the world.

The hottest year on record, 2016, occurred during a particularly strong El Niño.  Experts expect that 2024 is likely to see soaring temperatures again.  El Niño generally leads to drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia, and southern Asia, but greater amounts of rainfall in South America, the U.S., and parts of Africa.  Despite the presence of a cooling La Niña for the past three years, the last eight years have been the hottest on record.

El Niño and La Niña form an intermittent cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, that is highly influential in shaping the year-to-year variations in weather conditions around the world.  ENSO is a natural phenomenon and scientists are still trying to understand how human-caused climate change might be impacting the behavior and dynamics of the cycle.

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‘A New Spike’ in Global Temperatures in the Forecast

Photo, posted October 11, 2015, courtesy of Harshil Shah via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

California Flooding | Earth Wise

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Starting in December, a series of “atmospheric rivers” brought record storms to California producing as much rain in three weeks in some areas as they normally have in an entire year.  The historic levels of rain (and snow in the mountains) have swollen rivers, flooded roads and homes, forced evacuations, knocked out electric power for millions of people, and resulted in more than 20 deaths.

Atmospheric rivers are air currents that carry large amounts of water vapor through the sky.  They are not unusual for California but recurrent waves of them like those that have happened recently are very infrequent.  Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that such a phenomenon recurs in California every 250 years.  There were a series of storms causing disastrous floods in California in 1861-62.

The atmospheric rivers are born in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific.  During La Nina phases, the atmospheric rivers typically make landfall on the northern West Coast. During El Nino phases, atmospheric rivers are more likely to end up in Southern and Central California. During transitions between the phases, as is happening now, the storms can cover large parts of the state.

Modern forecasting is pretty good at predicting the forthcoming occurrence of these storms and has led to some helpful actions, such as reservoir operators preventing dams from overflowing or bursting.  But there is a gap between science and decision-making.  It is pretty clear what needs to be done when tornados or hurricanes are on the way.  It is less clear what actions are appropriate when there are going to be repeated heavy rainstorms.

These storms will have an effect on California’s megadrought, but just how much of an effect remains to be seen.

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Flooding in California: What Went Wrong, and What Comes Next

Photo, posted January 5, 2023, courtesy of Sarah Stierch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Triple La Niña | Earth Wise

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La Niña is an oceanic phenomenon consisting of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropic Pacific.  It is essentially the opposite of the better-known El Niño.   These sea-surface phenomena affect weather across the globe.  As one oceanographer put it:  when the Pacific speaks, the whole world listens.

There is currently a La Niña underway, and it is the third consecutive northern hemisphere winter that has had one.  This so-called triple-dip event is rather rare.  The only other times they have been recorded over the past 70 years were in 1954-56, 1973-76, and 1998-2001.

La Niñas appear when strong easterly trade winds increase the upwelling of cooler water from the depths of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator.  This causes large-scale cooling of the ocean surface.  The cooler ocean surface modifies the moisture content of the atmosphere across the Pacific and can cause shifts in the path of jet streams that intensifies rainfall in some places and causes droughts in others.

These weather effects tend to include floods in northern Australia, Indonesia, and southeast Asia and, in contrast, drought in the American southwest.  In North America, cooler and stormier conditions often occur across the Pacific Northwest while the weather becomes warmer across the southern US and northern Mexico.

In the spring, the tropic Pacific essentially resets itself and starts building toward whatever condition will happen in the following winter, be it another La Niña or possibly an El Niño.   For the time being, forecasters expect the current La Niña to persist through February.

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La Niña Times Three

Photo, posted March 10, 2007, courtesy of Gail via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Vanishing Arctic Lakes | Earth Wise

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In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world.  The phenomenon is known as Arctic amplification.  A study by the Finnish Meteorological Institute published in August in Communications Earth & Environment determined that during the past 43 years, the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the globe.  The result of this amplified warming has been that glaciers are collapsing, wildlife is struggling, and habitats continue to disappear at a record pace.

Research published by the University of Florida has identified a new threat associated with Arctic amplification: lakes in the Arctic are drying up.

Over the past 20 years, many Arctic lakes have shrunk or dried up completely across the entire pan-Arctic region, which spans the northern parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Scandinavia, and Alaska.

Arctic lakes are essential elements of the Arctic ecosystem and for the indigenous communities that live in the region.  They provide a critical source of fresh water for those communities and local industries. 

The rapid decline of Arctic lakes is unexpected.  Earlier predictions were that climate change would first actually expand lakes in the region as ground ice melted.  Lakes drying out was not expected until much later in this century or even in the 22nd century.  Instead, it appears that thawing permafrost may drain lakes and overwhelm the expansion effect caused by melting ice.  The theory is that thawing permafrost decreases lake area by creating drainage channels and increasing soil erosion.

The finding suggest that permafrost thawing is occurring faster than anticipated, which presents many additional problems.

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As the climate crisis intensifies, lakes across the Arctic are vanishing

Photo, posted June 20, 2014, courtesy of Bob Wick / Bureau of Land Management via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Room-Temperature Superconductor | Earth Wise

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One of the Holy Grails of science has apparently been found:  a room-temperature superconductor.   In a paper recently published in Nature, scientists from the University of Rochester and collaborators announced that they had observed superconductivity at 59 degrees Fahrenheit in an exotic material they produced in the laboratory.

Superconductivity is a phenomenon occurring in certain materials characterized by the total absence of electrical resistance.  Current flowing in a closed loop of superconducting wire can go on forever.  Superconductors have other unique characteristics as well, all of which combine to make them quite useful in a number of applications.  Superconductors are used in high-powered magnets in particle accelerators and in MRI machines.  They continue to be developed for use in electrical power transmission, energy storage, communication filters, magnetic sensors, and more.

The problem with superconductors is that they only work at very low temperatures.  For most of a century – after superconductivity was discovered in 1911 – those temperatures were very close to absolute zero:  459 degrees below zero Fahrenheit.  (In the late 1980s, so-called high-temperature superconductors were discovered.  Those materials superconduct at the temperature of liquid nitrogen:  about 320 degrees below zero).

The dream has been to find a superconductor that works at ambient temperatures.  The Rochester team has produced tiny amounts of a mysterious combination of hydrogen, carbon, and sulfur which, when subjected to extraordinarily high pressures (over 2 million atmospheres), superconducts at the temperature of a pleasant fall day.

 There is no practical value for this first room-temperature superconductor, but it proves that superconductivity can exist at ambient temperature.  Once something is shown to exist at all, there is reason to hope that it can occur in ways that are easier and more practical to attain.

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First room-temperature superconductor excites — and baffles — scientists

Photo, posted June 18, 2013, courtesy of Oak Ridge National Laboratory via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Dust From The Sahara | Earth Wise

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A vast cloud of dust from the Sahara Desert blanketed the Caribbean in late June before drifting across the southeastern U.S.  The phenomenon is nothing new; only the magnitude of the occurrence this time around was unusual.  According to experts, this is the most significant Sahara dust event in 50 years.

The Sahara Desert is the major source on Earth of mineral dust, with some 60-200 million tons of it per year being lifted into the atmosphere.  Convection currents over hot desert areas lift the dust to very high altitudes.  From there, it can be transported worldwide by winds.   The dust, combined with the extremely hot, dry air of the Sahara Desert often forms an atmospheric layer called the Saharan Air Layer, which can have significant effects on tropical weather by interfering with the development of hurricanes.  The Saharan Air Layer typically moves across the North Atlantic every three to five days from late spring to early fall, peaking in the middle of the summer.  It can occupy a layer as much as two miles thick in the atmosphere.

The dust plume this summer was highly visible from space, covering thousands of miles of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

A common effect of Sahara dust is that normally blue skies can acquire a milky haze, but beyond that can lead to spectacular sunsets.  But apart from the visual spectacle, the dust can aggravate the conditions of people with asthma, respiratory illnesses, and allergies. On the positive side, as long as the dust is around, it is much less likely that tropical storms and hurricanes will form.

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Sahara dust blankets Caribbean, air quality hazardous

Photo, posted June 22, 2020, courtesy of Sagar Rana via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Why The Arctic Is Warming So Fast | Earth Wise

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The Arctic has been warming at the fastest rate of any place on Earth.  There have long been observations of amplification of Arctic warming, meaning that its temperature increases have been well above what would be expected from the global temperature rise.

Many climate models have attributed this warming to the melting of sea ice.  As the bright white ice disappears for longer periods of the year, the dark surface waters that are exposed absorb sunlight rather than reflecting it back into space the way the ice does.  This is known as the ice-albedo feedback.  But it does not entirely explain the amount of warming in the Arctic.

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory that helps to explain what is going on.

In the areas of the Arctic Ocean where there is sea ice, the water is actually warmer at depth and colder near the surface.  The deeper waters are fed by the relatively warm Pacific and Atlantic Oceans while the surface water is cooled by the ice.  The increasing temperature difference between surface and deeper water causes a greater upward flow of heat.  This was first observed in research cruises that revealed evidence that the Arctic Ocean water was becoming more turbulent over time.

According to computer modeling, this phenomenon is responsible for about 20% of the amplification of global warming that occurs in the Arctic.

There are multiple ongoing studies looking at the Arctic warming trend.  Other factors that have contributed over time are the presence of chlorfluorocarbons in the atmosphere.   That contribution is waning since the use of CFCs has been phasing out over time.

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Researchers Find New Reason Why Arctic is Warming So Fast

Photo, posted April 19, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Metal From Plants | Earth Wise

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Large amounts of metal in soil are generally bad for plants.  But there are about 700 species of plants that thrive in metal-rich soils.  These plants don’t just tolerate minerals from soil in their bodies but actually seem to hoard them to ridiculous levels.

In areas where soils are naturally rich in nickel, typically in the tropics and Mediterranean basin, plants have either died off or have adapted to become nickel loving.  Slicing open a tree with this adaptation produces a neon blue-green sap that is actually one-quarter nickel, which is far more concentrated than the ore that typically feeds commercial nickel smelters.

A group of researchers from the University of Melbourne and other institutions is investigating whether this phenomenon is not just interesting but might also be of real commercial value.  They established a plot of land in a rural village in Borneo and have been harvesting growth from nickel-hyper accumulating plants.  Every six to twelve months, a farmer shaves off one foot of growth from these plants and either burns or squeezes the metal out.  After a short purification, they end up with about 500 pounds of nickel citrate, potentially worth thousands of dollars on international markets.

Phytomining – extracting minerals from hyper-accumulating plants – cannot fully replace traditional mining techniques.  But the technology could enable areas with toxic soils to be made productive and might allow mining companies to use plants to clean up their former mines and waste while actually collecting some revenue.

There are other plants that suck up cobalt, zinc, and similarly crucial metals.  With growing demand for metals, perhaps it is time to harvest them on the farm.

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Down on the Farm That Harvests Metal From Plants

Photo courtesy of the University of Queensland.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And El Niño

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The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.  Amazingly, the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns.

The study, led by scientists in China and the US, looked at data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901.  Since the 1970s, El Niños have been forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer.  Strong El Niños can cause severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the US Pacific Northwest and Peru, and more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic.

Before 1978, 12 out of 14 El Niños formed east of the International Dateline.  Since 1978, all 11 have formed in the central or western Pacific Ocean a shift of hundreds of miles.  There have been three so-called super El Niños since the shift – in 1982, 1997, and 2015.  These have set new average temperature records and triggered catastrophic natural disasters.

With rising global temperatures, El Niños are likely to continue to intensify, with major impacts on human societies around the world.

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Climate Change is Making El Niños More Intense, Study Finds

Photo, posted January 20, 2016, courtesy of Los Angeles District via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Dolphins

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We don’t think of heatwaves as something that affects the ocean, but increasingly, as the planet warms, there have been instances where ocean water temperatures become much higher than normal for extended periods of time.  There has been much discussion of this phenomenon with regard to coral reefs where the catastrophic rise in coral bleaching events has been the result.

Recently, a study at the University of Zurich looked at the effects of ocean heatwaves on marine life higher in the food chain.  They studied the well-known dolphin population in Shark Bay, Western Australia.

In early 2011, a heatwave caused water temperatures in Shark Bay to rise more than 4 degrees above the annual average for an extended period.  This led to a substantial loss of seagrass, which is a driving factor in the Shark Bay ecosystem.

The researchers investigated how this environmental damage affected survival and reproduction of dolphins, using long-term data on hundreds of animals collected over a ten-year period from 2007 to 2017.

Their analysis showed that dolphins’ survival rate dropped by 12% and female dolphins were giving birth to fewer calves.  That phenomenon that began in 2011 lasted at least until 2017.

The researchers were surprised by the extent and the duration of the influence of the heatwave, especially the fact that the reproductive rate of dolphins had not returned to normal even after 6 years.

This study shows for the first time that marine heatwaves not only affect organisms at the lower levels of the food chain, but also might have considerable long-term consequences for the animals at the top, such as dolphins.

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Climate change is a threat to dolphins’ survival

Photo, posted December 14, 2014, courtesy of Ed Dunens via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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