nature communications

Rising Seas Will Erase Cities

December 18, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to new research, climate-driven sea level rise could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought. This sobering assessment means some of the world’s great coastal cities, including Bangkok, Shanghai, Mumbai, Basra, Alexandria, and Ho Chi Minh City, could be in big trouble.

Scientists have always relied on land elevation data to determine the effects of sea level rise over large areas. But standard elevation measurements using satellites struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings. The authors of the paper developed a more accurate way to calculate land elevation by using artificial intelligence to determine the error rate and to correct for it. The new findings revealed that 150 million people – three times more than previously thought – are now living on land that is projected to be below the high-tide line by the middle of this century.

Eight Asian nations – China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan – account for about 70% of the people living on at-risk land.

More than 20 million people in Vietnam, including much of Ho Chi Minh City, live on land that will be inundated by 2050. In Thailand, more than 10% of its citizens, including much of Bangkok, currently live on land imperiled by projected sea level rise.

This new research was produced by Climate Central, a New Jersey-based science organization, and was recently published in the journal Nature Communications.

Sea level rise is clearly not just an environmental problem. It’s a humanitarian crisis.

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New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows

Photo, posted December 18, 2009, courtesy of Misko via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hundred-Year Floods Becoming One-Year Floods

September 26, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

By definition, 100-year floods are intense flooding events that historically tend to happen once every 100 years. Put another way, a 100-year flood has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year.

According to new research published in the journal Nature Communications, rising global temperatures may turn 100-year floods into annual occurrences in parts of the United States. The increase in severe coastal flooding events by the end of this century will be a result of rising sea levels and stronger, more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes.

The study, led by researchers at Princeton University and MIT, examined flood risk for 171 counties along the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Their analysis concluded that 100-year floods will become annual events in New England. In the US Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, counties could experience such floods as often as every year up to as seldom as every 30 years.

Previously, most analysis of coastal flooding has looked only at the impact of sea level rise on flood risk. This new research combined the risk of rising seas with projected changes in coastal storms over the course of this century. Data from the Gulf of Mexico revealed that the effect of stronger storms is comparable with or even more significant than the effect of sea level change for 40% of the counties studied. So, neglecting the effects of storm climatology change is likely to significantly underestimate the impact of climate change in many places.

The hope is that more comprehensive flood risk data can be used to create more effective climate resiliency strategies all the way down to the county level.

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100-Year Floods Could Soon Happen Annually in Parts of U.S., Study Finds

Photo, posted August 31, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Controlling Malaria Without Chemicals

August 28, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Nearly half of the world’s population lives in areas vulnerable to malaria. The disease kills roughly 450,000 people each year, most of them children and pregnant women. Malaria is spread by Anopheles mosquitoes and, over time, the mosquitoes have been developing resistance to the chemical insecticides that are used to control them. In addition, there is great concern about the toxic side effects of the chemicals used on the mosquitoes.

About 30 years ago, scientists identified a type of bacteria that kills Anopheles, but the mechanism was not understood. As a result, the bacteria could not be replicated or used as an alternative to chemical insecticides.

But now, an international research team, headed by researchers at UC Riverside, has identified the neurotoxin produced by the bacteria and has determined how it kills Anopheles. The work is described in a paper published in Nature Communications.

It took the team 10 years to achieve a breakthrough in understanding the bacteria. Modern gene sequencing techniques were the key.

While many neurotoxins target vertebrates and are highly toxic to humans, the neurotoxin that kills Anopheles mosquitoes does not affect humans, vertebrates, fish, or even other insects. Known as PMP1, the substance is not even toxic to mice when given by direct injection.

The team has applied for a patent on this discovery and hopes to find partners to help them develop the bacteria-based insecticide.

There is a high likelihood that PMP1 actually evolved to kill the Anopheles mosquito. This finding opens the door to new avenues of research into other environmentally friendly insecticides that would be targeted at other disease-spreading pests.

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Controlling deadly malaria without chemicals

Photo, posted June 9, 2018, courtesy of Mario Yardanov via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.