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Approaching critical global temperature thresholds

January 21, 2025 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Paris Climate Agreement is a global treaty adopted in 2015 to combat climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while striving to keep it below 1.5°C. But according to recent research, the planet is quickly approaching these critical thresholds.

An international research team led by scientists from Colorado State University, Stanford University, and ETH-Zurich in Switzerland combined insights from 10 global climate models, and – with the help of artificial intelligence – found that regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached faster than previously thought.

In fact, the researchers found that most land regions will likely surpass the critical 1.5°C threshold by 2040 or even earlier. Additionally, several regions are on track to exceed the 3.0°C threshold by 2060. Regions including Central Europe, the Mediterranean, South Asia, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to reach these thresholds faster.

The research team relied on transfer learning, a cutting-edge machine learning technique that leverages pre-trained models to tackle new, related tasks.

The research, which was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040. Of those 34 regions, 31 of them are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040, and 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.

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AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected

Photo, posted February 23, 2011, courtesy of 2011 CIAT / Neil Palmer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Wrong trees in the wrong places

January 20, 2025 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Temperatures in cities are rising around the world and urban heat stress is already a major problem. Extensive surfaces of man-made materials absorb the sun’s energy, and lead to temperatures well above those in the surrounding countryside. This is known as the urban heat island effect, and it can lead to greater energy use, higher air pollution levels, and a greater risk of heat-related illnesses, as well as death.

Some cities have already started implementing mitigation strategies, with tree planting prominent among them. Planting trees can cool the climate by absorbing carbon dioxide, providing shade, and releasing water vapor, which lowers air and surface temperatures.

However, while trees can cool cities significantly during the day, new research from the University of Cambridge in the U.K. shows that tree canopies can also trap heat and raise temperatures at night.

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, planting the wrong species or the wrong combination of trees in suboptimal locations or arrangements can limit their benefits.

The researchers found that in temperate climates, trees can cool cities by up to 6°C during the day but can increase nighttime temperatures by 1.5°C. Cities with open layouts in temperate and tropical climates benefit from a mix of evergreen and deciduous trees, enhancing cooling by 0.5°C more than in cities with only deciduous or evergreen trees.

The researchers hope their findings will help urban planners choose the best combinations of trees and planting locations to combat urban heat stress.

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Wrong trees in the wrong place can make cities hotter at night, study reveals

Photo, posted October 29, 2017, courtesy of Lars Plougmann via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How will we know if the world is 1.5 degrees warmer?

January 12, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Paris Climate Agreement has a goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. How do we know if we are succeeding and, more importantly, how would we know if we have failed?

This may seem like something fairly obvious, but it isn’t. Global temperatures are definitely creeping upward. This past year has been the warmest on record. In fact, the global average temperature was more than 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels. November was 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels. So, does that mean that our climate goals have already failed? Not really.

On a monthly scale there have already been individual months where warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2023. Would an entire year above the target constitute failure? Not necessarily. There really isn’t an agreed-upon answer and that in itself represents something that could undermine global efforts to tackle climate change.

If we don’t know whether we are succeeding or failing, it is more difficult to pursue success. The United Nations IPCC says the threshold will be surpassed when average warming exceeds 1.5 degrees for 20 years. But that seems like a building a mountain highway with no guardrails and hoping to be safe.

Scientists are calling for new approaches to defining a universally agreed-upon measure of global warming that could trigger urgent action to avoid further rises. What we really don’t need are justifications and excuses for continued inaction. Clearly the climate is not waiting for us to debate the issue.

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Why We Won’t Know When We’ve Passed the 1.5-Degree Threshold

Photo, posted August 2, 2018, courtesy of J Bartlett Team Rubicon/BLM for USFS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Are we really serious about eliminating fossil fuels?

December 15, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Almost all the countries around the world have pledged to take action to reduce planet-warming emissions by expanding the use of renewable energy sources and phasing out fossil fuels. But very few countries seem to be taking the fossil fuel phase-out seriously.

Almost all the top 20 fossil-fuel producing countries plan to produce more oil, gas, and coal in 2030 than they do today. Countries are doubling down on fossil fuel production, which will make it virtually impossible to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

Despite having an administration that takes climate issues very seriously, the United States is now the world’s biggest crude oil producer and is ramping up exports of natural gas. Brazil, under its environmental champion President da Silva, plans to increase oil production by 63% and more than double its gas output over the next decade. India, which has promised to expand renewable energy production, will more than double its production of coal by 2030. Canada, which has a net-zero commitment enacted as law, will boost its oil output by 25% in the next 12 years. Meanwhile, countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia aren’t even pretending to make the transition away from fossil fuels.

Governments and citizens around the world may be serious about the climate crisis and are taking various actions. But the world cannot address climate change without tackling its root cause. The overwhelming force of greed and the power wielded by the fossil fuel industry has created a dynamic that is making real progress nearly impossible as fossil fuels continue to power the world.

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Coming Soon: More Oil, Gas and Coal

Photo, posted June 22, 2020, courtesy of John Morton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Methane Emissions And The Paris Agreement | Earth Wise

August 21, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted at the UN Climate Change Conference in 2015. Its goal is to strengthen the global response to climate change by committing to limit the rise in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit that increase to just 1.5°C.

Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement requires reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by or around 2050, as well as deep reductions in methane and other emissions.

According to a new study by researchers from Simon Fraser University in Canada, reductions in methane emissions are needed urgently if we are to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study, which was recently published in the journal Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment, suggests that global warming levels could be kept below 2°C if methane mitigation efforts are initiated globally before 2030. However, delaying methane mitigation to the year 2040 or beyond would increase the risk of exceeding 2°C, even if net-zero carbon dioxide emissions were achieved.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to global temperature increases over the last two centuries. However, methane is known to warm the planet 86 times more effectively than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.

During the past 40 years, more than 60% of global methane emissions have been produced as a result of human activities, such as fossil fuel exploitation, livestock production, and waste from landfills.

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Delaying methane mitigation increases risk of breaching Paris Agreement climate goal, study finds

Photo, posted July 22, 2011, courtesy of Steven W. via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A First In The Climate Change Fight | Earth Wise

March 6, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Under a new initiative, builders in New Jersey will have to take climate change into account in order to win government approval for projects. New Jersey is the first state in the United States to enact such a requirement, which will leverage land-use rules to control what and where developers can build, and limit the volume of pollution.

Through executive order, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy will require the state Department of Environmental Protection to draft new building regulations. The changes, to be adopted by January 2022, do not require legislative approval, but could face political and legal challenges.

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on New Jersey and its 130 miles of coastline. According to a recent study from Rutgers University, the sea level along the New Jersey coast rose 1.5 feet since 1911, which was more than twice as much as the global average. The sea level is expected to rise by as much as another foot by 2030. At the same time, some coastal areas of New Jersey are gradually sinking.

The initiative by New Jersey comes on the heels of a Trump administration proposal which would allow federal agencies to not take climate change into account when evaluating infrastructure projects. The federal changes are geared towards speeding up approvals for highway construction, pipelines, oil and gas leases, and other major infrastructure projects.

In the absence of anything resembling leadership on climate change from the federal government, it remains for states like New Jersey to continue to press ahead. In addition to the new building initiative, New Jersey also plans to produce 100% clean energy by 2050.

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