hottest year

Rising fossil fuel emissions

April 22, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Almost every nation in the world has pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. There is expanding use of renewable energy sources and growing numbers of electric cars. But despite all this, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose again in 2023, reaching record levels.

The world’s population continues to grow and nations with large, rapidly growing populations are becoming increasingly industrialized and are embracing more and more of the trappings of modern life. As a result, the global burning of oil, coal, and natural gas is increasing.

Analysis of 2023 date shows that emissions from fossil fuels rose 1.1 percent compared to 2022 levels. The total fossil fuel emissions in 2023 was 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

Clearly, the world continues to head in the wrong direction in order to limit global warming. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 278 parts per million in 1750 – considered to be the start of the industrial era – to 420 parts per million in 2023.

The rise in heat-trapping carbon dioxide along with other greenhouse gases such as methane is the primary reason that the planet’s temperature is continuing to rise. The average global surface temperature in 2023 was 1.2 degrees Celsius – or 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit – higher than it was in the NASA baseline period of 1951-1980. Last year was the hottest year on record. Unfortunately, the rise in global ocean temperature was even larger, compounding the effects of global warming.

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Emissions from Fossil Fuels Continue to Rise

Photo, posted June 22, 2020, courtesy of John Morton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why was 2023 so hot?

February 2, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Five separate weather-tracking organizations have proclaimed 2023 as the hottest year on record. They all agreed that 2023 beat the previous record-holder – 2016 – by a wide margin. Organizations that use a pre-industrial baseline of 1850-1900 found that 2023 was 1.45 to 1.48 degrees Celsius above the baseline. But what caused 2023 – especially the second half of it – to be so hot?

Scientists believe that there were multiple factors that contributed to the record-breaking heat.

First and foremost is the long-term rise in greenhouse gases. Over 100 years of burning fossil fuels along with major changes in land use (particularly deforestation) have led to a significant rise in the heat-trapping blanket of the gases in the atmosphere.

On top of this long-term trend, the return of the El Niño condition in the Pacific in May helped temperatures rise further.

At the same time, the tropical Pacific was not the only ocean that was hotter than normal. The global sea surface temperature set new records in 2023 and there were multiple marine heat waves. Heat trapped by the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, raising their temperatures.

Another factor is the quantity of aerosols in the atmosphere. Many of these aerosols actually cool the atmosphere by reflecting the sun’s light back into space. Society’s efforts to reduce air pollution and improve air quality have led to decreasing levels of aerosols.

2024 started with some seriously cold weather in some places but predictions are that this year will be roughly as warm as 2023 and possibly warmer given that the dynamics driving last year’s weather are all still in place.

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Five Factors to Explain the Record Heat in 2023

Photo, posted February 22, 2016, courtesy of Jasmin Toubi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

El Niño Will Likely Return | Earth Wise

June 21, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

El Niño, a weather phenomenon triggered by warm waters in the eastern Pacific, is likely to return this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The Pacific has been in the cooler La Niña phase for the past 3 years, which is unusual, but that appears to be coming to a close. According to the WMO, there is an 80% chance that the Pacific will shift to the El Niño phase before fall.

Record hot years typically coincide with El Niño, which adds to the ongoing warming trend in the climate. There is not yet a clear picture of how strong the forthcoming El Niño event will be or how long it might last, but even a mild El Niño could affect precipitation and temperature patterns around the world.

The hottest year on record, 2016, occurred during a particularly strong El Niño. Experts expect that 2024 is likely to see soaring temperatures again. El Niño generally leads to drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia, and southern Asia, but greater amounts of rainfall in South America, the U.S., and parts of Africa. Despite the presence of a cooling La Niña for the past three years, the last eight years have been the hottest on record.

El Niño and La Niña form an intermittent cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, that is highly influential in shaping the year-to-year variations in weather conditions around the world. ENSO is a natural phenomenon and scientists are still trying to understand how human-caused climate change might be impacting the behavior and dynamics of the cycle.

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‘A New Spike’ in Global Temperatures in the Forecast

Photo, posted October 11, 2015, courtesy of Harshil Shah via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Hottest September | Earth Wise

November 5, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Here’s a news item that is like many other recent news items: September 2020 was the hottest September since 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The warm September is a part of a year that so far is poised to be at least the second hottest year in the 141-year climate record.

The ten warmest Septembers on record have all occurred since 2005, and the seven warmest Septembers have occurred in the past seven years.

So far, the year-to-date average global temperature has been the second warmest on record, being just 0.07 degrees Fahrenheit lower than the record year-to-date temperature set in 2016. Expectations are that 2020 will end up somewhere among the three warmest years on record for the globe.

September was warm in many places around the world. California and Oregon had their warmest September ever. Europe had its warmest September on record, Asia had its second warmest September on record as did Australia and South America.

So far, it has been the hottest year-to-date on record in Europe, Asia, and the Gulf of Mexico. No land or ocean areas anywhere had record-cold year-to-date temperatures.

Global temperatures represent an average over the entire surface of the planet. The fact that the global temperature is now nearly one Celsius degree above the 20th century average means that a vast amount of heat has been added in order to warm all the oceans, atmosphere, and land by that much. So, every uptick in global temperature is a big deal.

Meanwhile, the average Arctic sea ice coverage for September was the second smallest on record. The 14 smallest minimum annual sea ice extents have all occurred in the past 14 years.

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