climate targets

The slow decline of coal

January 25, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Despite the fact that coal is the dirtiest and most climate-harmful energy source we have, the global demand for it hit a record high in 2023. The demand for coal grew by 1.4% worldwide, according to an analysis by the International Energy Agency.

Coal use grew by 5% in China and 8% in India. The two countries are the world’s largest producers and consumers of coal. Meanwhile, coal use in the U.S. and the European Union fell by 20%.

Despite this discouraging news, the IEA forecasts that coal use will decline over the next two years. There have been declines in coal demand a few times before, but they were driven by unusual events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Covid-19 crisis. But the IEA says that the forthcoming decline is different. It will be driven by the formidable and sustained expansion of clean energy technologies.

According to the IEA, global coal demand will fall by 2.3% by 2026 even in the absence of new policies to curb coal use. Forces at play will be increased hydropower in China as it recovers from drought and puts new wind and solar projects online. China is responsible for more than half of global coal demand, but it is also responsible for more than half of the planned renewable power projects coming online over the next three years. Experts believe that with these forthcoming projects, Chinese emissions may have peaked in 2023.

The projected drop in coal demand is still far short of what is required for the world to avoid catastrophic warming. Much greater efforts are needed to meet international climate targets.

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After a Record 2023, Coal Headed for Decline, Analysts Say

Photo, posted August 25, 2015, courtesy of Jeremy Buckingham via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Race For American Lithium Mining | Earth Wise

July 7, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The auto industry is making a massive transition from gas-powered cars to electric cars. The exploding electric vehicle market has set off what some call a global battery arms race. Battery manufacturers are urgently trying to source the raw materials needed to make batteries, which presently include cobalt, nickel, graphite, and lithium. There is encouraging progress in reducing and even eliminating cobalt and nickel from electric car batteries, but so far lithium seems to be essential.

The International Energy Agency has named lithium as the mineral for which there is the fastest growing demand in the world. Estimates are that if the world is to meet the global climate targets set by the Paris Agreement, at least 40 times more lithium will be needed in 2040 compared with today.

According to the US Geological Survey, the US has about 9 million tons of lithium, which puts it in the top 5 most lithium-rich countries in the world. Despite this, our country mines and processes only 1% of global lithium output. Most of the rest comes from China, Chile, and Australia. Being dependent upon these foreign sources is a serious concern for national security.

There is only one operational lithium mine in the US at present. Multiple companies are pressing to get more mining projects in operation, including sites in North Carolina and Nevada. But there are serious environmental problems associated with lithium mining and there is considerable local opposition to establishing the mines.

The US wants to be a leader in the global race to build the batteries that will power the green transition but it is a complicated situation that combines both undeniably important benefits as well as very real dangers.

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Powering electric cars: the race to mine lithium in America’s backyard

Photo, posted January 18, 2022, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Danger Of Relying On Future Technology | Earth Wise

May 22, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The need to mitigate the effects of climate change has been a global focus for about 40 years and has seen ever-changing views on what actions are needed. The historical record has been defined by over-reliance on promises of new technology to solve climate change. Looking to future technology to save the environment has been an excuse to postpone necessary action and avoid inconvenient changes in how we do things.

A study at Lancaster University in the UK published in Nature Climate Change exposes how such promises have raised expectations of more effective policy options becoming available in the future and have enabled the continued politics of inadequate action and skirting around the truth.

Even after four decades, rather than acting forcefully to reduce emissions, we are hoping that nuclear fusion power, giant carbon sucking machines, ice-restoration using vast numbers of wind-powered pumps, and spraying particulates into the atmosphere can address the climate crisis rather than dramatic changes in fossil fuel use.

The researchers mapped the history of climate targets in five phases. Early on, the focus was on improved energy efficiency, large-scale enhancement of carbon sinks, and nuclear power. Next, the focus was on cutting emissions with efficiency, fuel switching, and carbon capture and storage. After that, bioenergy was the major focus. Then, global carbon budgeting and potential negative emission technologies. Currently, the focus is on temperature outcomes rather than emission targets.

Each novel promise competes with existing ideas and downplays any sense of urgency. The researchers conclude that putting our hopes on yet more new technologies is unwise. The time to act is now.

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Why relying on new technology won’t save the planet

Photo, posted February 13, 2019, courtesy of Jonathan Cutrer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Buses In Latin America

October 31, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Latin America has become increasingly urbanized. In fact, about 80% of the region’s population lives in cities today and by 2050, that figure could climb to 90%. Transportation is the largest and fastest-growing source of energy-related emissions in Latin America and accounts for about a third of all of the region’s carbon dioxide emissions.

Private vehicle ownership is rising in Latin America but at the same time, the region’s rapidly growing cities have increased demand for buses, taxis, and motorcycles. Currently, an estimated 64,000 people die prematurely every year in Latin America and the Caribbean as a result of air pollution, which is mostly caused by transportation emissions.

Given this situation, major cities across Latin America – from Colombia to Argentina – are starting to adopt electric bus fleets. Latin America actually has the highest use of buses per person globally. So, the transition to electric buses is an important step toward meeting climate targets, cutting fuel costs, and improving air quality.

Medellin, Colombia – whose metropolitan area has 3.7 million people – has started to add electric buses to its fleet, the rest of which runs on natural gas. When new units arrive from China later this year, Medellin will have the second largest electric bus fleet in Latin America, after Santiago, Chile.

Worldwide, 425,000 electric buses are in operation, 99% in China. Europe has a couple of thousand while the United States has only 300. But going forward, and especially in Latin America, electric buses are the wave of the future. Estimates are that there will be 1.3 million on the roads by 2040.

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An Increasingly Urbanized Latin America Turns to Electric Buses

Photo, posted April 22, 2018, courtesy of Hans Johnson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.