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The UK is heating up

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June and July have both seen multiple days with temperatures in the 90s in London, England.  This is almost unheard of, but according to British scientists, record-breaking extreme weather has become the new norm in the UK.

Weather records show that the UK’s climate is different now compared with just a few decades ago.  The number of days with temperatures 9 degrees Fahrenheit above the average from 1961-1990 has doubled in the last 10 years.  For days 14 degrees above average, the number has tripled, and for 18 degrees above average, it has quadrupled. 

Apart from the higher temperatures, rain in the UK has become more intense.  The number of months where counties receive at least double their average rainfall has risen by 50% in the past 20 years.  Sea level around the UK is rising faster than the global average, worsening the impact of coastal flooding.

An estimated 600 people died as a result of the heatwave that hit England and Wales at the end of June.  Scientists calculated that the extreme high temperatures were made 100 times more likely to have occurred as a result of climate warming.

The UK has some of the longest duration meteorological records in the world.  Those records show that recent temperatures have far exceeded any in at least 300 years.  The last three years were among the UK’s five hottest years on record. 

Today’s record-breaking temperatures are likely to be average by 2050 and positively cool by 2100, according to scientists.

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‘Profound concern’ as scientists say extreme heat ‘now the norm’ in UK

Photo, posted February 4, 2018, courtesy of Hannes Flo via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Glaciers in Venezuela

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There are nearly 200,000 glaciers in the world.  About 91% of them are in Antarctica and 8% in Greenland.  The rest are scattered across nearly 50 countries.  The non-polar country with the most glaciers is actually Pakistan, which has over 7,200 of them.  But as the world continues to warm, glaciers are shrinking back, and many are disappearing altogether.

Venezuela, once home to six glaciers, has become the first country in the Americas to lose all of its glaciers.  Slovenia is considered to be the first country to lose its glaciers in modern times, perhaps as long as 30 years ago.  Glacial thawing has been worsening over the past decade throughout the Andes, which cover parts of Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and Argentina.

Five of Venezuela’s glaciers had largely melted away by 2011.  The Humboldt glacier, which is on the highest peak in the Cordillera de Mérida mountain range in Venezuela, has now been declared as too small to be classified as a glacier.  It once covered over a thousand acres; it now has less than 5 acres of ice.  The US Geological Survey defines glaciers as ice bodies extending 25 acres or more.

The loss of glaciers in the Andes has serious consequences for communities that live on their slopes and depend upon glacial melt for water and for energy and food production. 

At least 80% of glaciers worldwide are on track to mostly disappear by the year 2100 because of global warming.  Given that previous forecasts estimated that the Humboldt glacier might last another decade, the prospects for the world’s remaining glaciers are not good.

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Venezuela becomes first nation in the Americas to lose all glaciers

Photo, posted November 11, 2012, courtesy of Tim Snell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Major species turnover forecasted for North American cities

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Climate change affects animal species in many ways.  It induces habitat loss, disrupts migration and breeding patterns, threatens marine life, and facilitates an increased spread of disease.  It may also affect where animals can be found in the future. 

According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Toronto Mississauga and Apex Resource Management Solutions in Canada, climate change may dramatically affect the animal species observed in North American cities by the end of the century.

The researchers used species distribution data combined with machine learning to study the impact of human-caused climate change on more than 2,000 animal species historically found in the 60 most populous North American cities. 

According to the research team, changes in biodiversity are brewing for almost every city it studied by the year 2100.  In fact, cities with a rich history of biodiversity are predicted to have the largest declines and fewest gains in species. Cooler and wetter cities like Quebec, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Kansas City, and Omaha are expected to welcome the most new species.  Warmer cities with higher precipitation – like cities in coastal California – are projected to lose the most species. 

More than 95% of bird and insect species are predicted to experience a change in the number of cities they call home.  Canines, most amphibians, and aquatic birds are expected to experience the greatest losses.  Toads, turtles, mice and pelicans are projected to become more common overall. 

The researchers hope their findings will encourage more efforts to protect biodiversity.

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North American cities may see a major species turnover by the end of the century

Photo, posted September 29, 2013, courtesy of Jonathan Kriz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Major League Baseball And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Major League Baseball is one of the most historic professional sports leagues in the United States and represents the highest level of professional baseball.  Throughout its history, MLB has endured many changes to rules, equipment, and strategy.  As a result of these changes, the league has been segmented into several distinct eras, including the dead ball era and the live ball era. 

According to a new study by researchers from Dartmouth College, baseball could be on the cusp of another era where higher temperatures due to global warming are increasingly having an impact on the game.  The report, which was published in the scientific journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, found that more than 500 home runs since 2010 can be attributed to the warmer and thinner air caused by global warming  The research team expects several hundred more home runs per season to come with future climate warming.

While only 1% of recent home runs are attributable to climate change, researchers expect that figure to jump to 10% or more by 2100 if climate change continues unabated. 

The researchers examined each major league ballpark to gauge how the average number of home runs per year could rise with each 1-degree Celsius increase in global average temperature.  They found that Wrigley Field – home of the Chicago Cubs – would have the largest spike with more than 15 home runs per season.  Meanwhile, domed Tropicana Field – home of the Tampa Bay Rays – would remain unaffected by the hotter temperatures outside. 

Perhaps the next era for baseball will be known as “climate-ball.”

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Spike in Major League Home Runs Tied to Climate Change

Photo, posted September 23, 2021, courtesy of Joe Passe via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Once In A Lifetime Floods And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Superstorm Sandy was the deadliest hurricane of 2012 and one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit the United States.  According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Superstorm Sandy caused an estimated $74.1 billion dollars in damages.  That figure made it the fourth-costliest storm in U.S. history, trailing only Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and hurricanes Harvey and Maria in 2017.  Superstorm Sandy affected 24 states and all of the eastern seaboard.  

New York was one of the states pummeled by Superstorm Sandy.  The storm brought flood-levels to the region that had not been seen in generations.  But according to a new study published in the journal Climatic Change, those flood levels could become much more common. 

Researchers at Stevens Institute of Technology have found that 100-year and 500-year flood levels could become regular occurrences by the end of the century for the thousands of homes surrounding Jamaica Bay, NY.  The researchers say climate change is the culprit.  

Using anticipated greenhouse gas concentration levels, the research team created simulations to find the probability of different flood levels being reached by the end of the century.  The researchers found that the historical 100-year flood level would become a one-year flood level by the year 2100.  500-year floods, like Superstorm Sandy, would become a four-year flood level by the end of the century. 

While this particular study is specific to Jamaica Bay, it does serve as an example of just how severe and costly the consequences of climate change will be.   

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Once in a lifetime floods to become regular occurrences by end of century

Photo, posted October 29, 2012, courtesy of Rachel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

 

Extreme Heat And Humidity | Earth Wise

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On hot, sticky summer days, one often hears the expression “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” That isn’t just an old saw; it is a recognition of what might be the most underestimated direct, local danger of climate change.   Extreme humid heat events represent a major health risk.

There is an index called “wet-bulb temperature” that is calculated from a combination of temperature and humidity data.  The reading, which is taken from a thermometer covered in a wet cloth, is related to how muggy it feels and indicates how effectively a person sheds heat by sweating.  When the wet-bulb temperature surpasses 95o Fahrenheit, evaporation of sweat is no longer enough for our bodies to regulate their internal temperature.  When people are exposed to these conditions for multiple hours, organ failure and death can result. 

Climate models project that combinations of heat and humidity could reach deadly thresholds for anyone spending several hours outdoors by the end of this century. 

Dangerous extremes only a few degrees below the human tolerance limits – including in parts of the southwestern and southeastern US – have more than doubled in frequency since 1979.  Since then, there have been more than 7,000 occurrences of wet-bulb temperatures above 88o, 250 above 91o, and multiple reading above 95o.  Even at lower wet-bulb temperatures around 80o, people with pre-existing health conditions, the elderly, as well as those performing strenuous outdoor labor and athletic activities, are at high risk.

More research is needed on the factors that generate extreme wet-bulb temperatures as well as the potential impacts on energy, food systems, and human security.

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Dangerous Humid Heat Extremes Occurring Decades Before Expected

Photo, posted April 16, 2012, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Devastating Threat To Coral Reef Habitats | Earth Wise

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According to new research from scientists at the University of Hawaii Manoa, the warming and acidifying oceans could wipe out nearly all existing coral reef habitats by 2100.  In fact, the researchers predict that 70-90% of coral reefs will disappear over the next 20 years alone as a consequence of climate change and pollution. 

Some organizations are attempting to save coral habitats by transplanting live corals from labs to reefs.  The idea is that the new young corals will help revive the reefs.  But after mapping where such restoration efforts would be most successful, the research indicates that there will be little to no suitable habitat remaining for corals by 2100.  Small portions of Baja California and the Red Sea are two of the sites that could remain viable by 2100, although neither are ideal due to their proximity to rivers.  Sea surfaces temperature and acidity are two of the most important factors in determining the viability of a site for restoration.  

Warming ocean waters stress corals, which cause them to expel the symbiotic algae living inside them.  This turns the often colorful corals white – an event known as coral bleaching.  Bleached corals are not dead corals, but they are at a higher risk of dying.  These coral bleaching events are becoming more frequent as a result of the changing climate. 

The projected increases in human pollution will only play a minor role in the future elimination of coral reef habitats.  Ironically, that’s because humans have already caused such extensive damage to coral reefs that there aren’t many locations left to impact.

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Warming, acidic oceans may nearly eliminate coral reef habitats by 2100

Photo, posted September 28, 2009, courtesy of Matt Kieffer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Maple Syrup And Climate Change

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According to a study recently published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, scientists are predicting another casualty of climate change: the U.S. maple industry.  By the year 2100, the maple syrup season in the United States may be less productive and arrive one month earlier than it has between 1950 and 2017.

Maple syrup production is impacted by two climate-sensitive factors: sugar content and sap flow.  Sugar content is determined by the previous year’s carbohydrate stores.  Sap flow depends on the freeze/thaw cycle.  Sap begins to flow in sugar maples when winter nights dip below freezing and the days warm above freezing.

The researchers studied six sugar maple stands from Virginia to Quebec, Canada over a six year period.  They created a model that predicted the timing of optimal sap flow based on historical temperature data on freeze/thaw days, actual sap collection from their field work, and monthly climate. 

According to modeling projections, the maple syrup season is expected to be, on average, one month earlier by the end of the century.  States like Indiana and Virginia will barely produce any sap.  New Hampshire and Vermont are likely to be least affected, but are still expected to experience a decrease in production.  In fact, most areas of maple production in the United States are projected to see decreases in production by the year 2100, while areas in northern Ontario and Quebec should see moderate to large increases in production. 

Currently, Canada is responsible for approximately 80% of global maple syrup production while the U.S. produces 20%.  The shifting climate for optimal maple production will leave many scrambling to find the sweet spot. 

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Climate change study finds that maple syrup season may come earlier

Photo, posted March 24, 2019, courtesy of Paul VanDerWerf via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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