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The oceans are warming faster

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A new study has shown that the rate of ocean warming has more than quadrupled over the past 40 years.  The study, by researchers at the University of Reading in the UK, helps to explain why there have been unprecedented ocean temperatures in 2023 and 2024.

Global ocean temperatures hit record highs for 450 days straight in 2023 and early 2024.  Some of this unusual warmth came from the El Niño that was taking place at the time, but the rest of the increased temperature came from the sea surface warming up more quickly over the past 10 years than in previous decades.  In the late 1980s, ocean temperatures were rising at a rate of 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade.  According to the recent research, they are now increasing at 0.27 degrees per decade.

The acceleration of ocean warming is driven by growth in the Earth’s energy imbalance, meaning that more energy from the sun is being absorbed by the Earth than is escaping back into space.  This energy imbalance has roughly doubled since 2010 as a result of two factors:  increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and reductions in the Earth’s albedo.

Earth’s albedo, the measure of how much sunlight is reflected back into space, has been declining since the 1970s, primarily due to the decrease in snow and ice cover, especially in the Arctic. 

The overall rate of ocean warming observed over recent decade is likely to only increase.  This underscores the urgency of reducing fossil fuel burning to avoid even more rapid temperature increases in the future.

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Ocean-surface warming four times faster now than late-1980s

Photo, posted January 18, 2007, courtesy of Alexey Krasavin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A record warm January

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Americans experienced unusually cold and wintery weather in January.  Places like southern Louisiana and Florida saw appreciable amounts of snow.  For those who experienced January’s Arctic blast, it was a cold January.  But despite that, January was the world’s warmest on record, extending a run of extraordinary heat in which 18 out of the last 19 months saw an average global temperature more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.  In fact, the global average temperature in January was 1.75 degrees above the pre-industrial average.

The exceptional warmth was surprising to climate researchers.  It happened despite the emergence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which tend to lower global temperatures, at least for a while.

Researchers are investigating whether there is something beyond the effects of greenhouse gas emissions that is boosting temperatures to an unexpected degree.  It is true that emissions, associated with the burning of coal, gas, and oil, reached record levels in both 2023 and 2024.  But January’s warmth was still something of a surprise.

One prevalent theory is that cutting dangerous pollution is playing a role in causing global warming to accelerate.  As regulators have curbed sulfate pollution to protect people’s lungs, the cooling effect of these particles that help form more and brighter clouds has diminished.

January demonstrates that the global climate system is complex and the weather in any particular region does not necessarily reflect what is happening to the planet as a whole.

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Global Temperatures Shattered Records in January

Photo, posted December 22, 2013, courtesy of SD Anderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

October was another hot month

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In a year filled with unusually warm months, October 2024 ranked as the second-warmest October in the 175 years of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s records.  It was just 0.09 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the previous global record set just last year.

In our part of the world, North America had its warmest October on record.

Year-to-date, the global surface temperature has been 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, which is the warmest such period on record.  This record warmth was observed in Africa, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America.  With only a little of the year to go, predictions are that there is a greater than 99% chance that 2024 will rank as the world’s warmest year on record.

Other aspects of the warming climate were also in full evidence in October.  Global sea ice coverage was the smallest in the 46 years that it has been tracked, about 1.25 million square miles below the 1991-2020 average.  Ice extent in the Arctic was the fourth lowest on record and ice extent in the Antarctic was the second lowest on record.

Global ocean surface temperature was the second warmest for October and is the warmest ever for the period January to October.

The Atlantic basin saw five tropical cyclones during October, including the deadly and destructive Hurricane Milton that made landfall just south of Tampa Bay. 

The monthly climate postings by NOAA continue to report record-breaking temperatures and significant climate anomalies and events.  This pattern is not likely to do anything but continue in the future.

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Planet saw its 2nd-warmest October in 175-year record

Photo, posted August 21, 2018, courtesy of Fabio Achilli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A month of extra-hot days

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The past 12 months have been the hottest ever measured across the globe.  This may not be everyone’s experience in every location, but the average person on Earth experienced 26 more days of abnormally high temperatures than they would have in the absence of climate change.

Researchers considered a given day’s temperature to be abnormally high in a particular location if it exceeded 90% of the daily temperatures recorded there between 1991 and 2020.  Nearly 80% of the world’s population experienced at least 31 days of abnormal warmth since May of 2023.  Theoretically, the number of unusually warm days would have been far fewer in the absence of global warming.

In some countries, the extra-warm days added up to two or three weeks.  In others, such as Colombia, Indonesia, and Rwanda, there were up to 4 months of them. The average American experienced 39 days of extra-warm temperatures since last May.

Scientists also added up how many extreme heat waves the planet experienced since last May.  These are defined as episodes of unseasonable warmth across a large area, lasting three or more days, and causing significant loss of life or disruption to infrastructure or industry.  In total, the researchers identified 76 such episodes, affecting 90 countries, on every continent except Antarctica.

The world’s climate is now shifting toward the La Niña phase of the cyclical pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This usually leads to cooler temperatures on average, but the recent heat could have lingering effects on weather and storms for months to come, including what is expected to be an extraordinarily active Atlantic hurricane season.

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Climate Change Added a Month’s Worth of Extra-Hot Days in Past Year

Photo, posted December 21, 2011, courtesy of Maggie Lin Photography via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

An active hurricane season

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st until November 30th.  Forecasters at Colorado State University have issued forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity since 1984 based on the pioneering work of Professor William Gray.  This year’s forecast, issued in April, predicts a higher-than-average number of Atlantic storms.  In fact, it may be one of the most active seasons on record.

On average, there are 14 named storms each season.  This year, the prediction is for 23 of them.  On average, there are 7 hurricanes each season.  This year, the prediction is for 11. The prediction is for 5 major hurricanes among them.  These predictions are among the highest on record, although in 2020 they predicted 12 hurricanes.  In fact, that year there were 14 that actually took place.

Among the factors at play are that the El Niño that was occurring last year has dissipated and there is a good chance of a La Niña forming, which suppresses upper-level winds thereby making conditions ideal for hurricane formation and intensification.  But the overarching factor is global warming which is driving ocean temperature rise.  The water in the Atlantic, especially in the eastern Atlantic where most hurricanes form, has seen record-breaking warmth.  More warm water means more chances for storms.

Other research groups echo the predictions from Colorado State and, in some cases, see ever greater chances for an extremely active hurricane season.  The University of Pennsylvania forecast calls for 33 named storms.

The overall forecast is for a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean. 

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Weather tracker: US experts predict one of most active hurricane seasons on record

Photo, posted September 5, 2017, courtesy of NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Little ice on the Great Lakes

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In an average year, the Great Lakes end up about 40% covered in ice.  But this is not an average year.  2023 was the warmest year on record and, in fact, the global temperature was more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average for the full year.  That hasn’t happened before.  As a result of the record-breaking warmth, as of mid-February, the average ice cover on the Great Lakes was only 5.9%.

Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tied their records for the lowest ice cover, which has been tracked since 1973.  Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior are at historic lows.  Some parts of the Great Lakes have experienced the winter without any ice cover.

The warming air temperatures have led to rapid ice loss and warming summer temperatures.  According to experts, if the planet continues to warm, more than 200,000 lakes may no longer freeze every winter and 5,700 lakes may permanently lose ice cover by the end of the century.

Studying the Great Lakes is important because their ice melt can be a significant indicator of the progress of global warming.  Decreasing ice cover can affect hydropower generation, commercial shipping and fishing, and have environmental impacts such as the development of plankton blooms.

Since the 1970s, there has been a 5% decline in Great Lakes ice cover per decade.  Unfrozen lakes bring more rain than snow which has environmental, cultural, and societal impacts.  The Great Lakes hold 21% of the world’s freshwater supply and over 30 million people depend on them for drinking water.  They are also linked to over $3 trillion in gross domestic product.

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Great Lakes Winter Ice Cover Averaging Just 5.9%: NOAA

Photo, posted November 7, 2007, courtesy of Jim Sorbie via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

What did the record warmth of 2023 mean?

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2023 was the warmest year in the 174 years of global temperature record-keeping.  According to some analyses, it may have been the warmest year in the past 125,000 years.

There were incredible heatwaves in Arizona and Argentina.  There were relentless wildfires across Canada.  The wintertime ice coverage in the seas surrounding Antarctica was at unprecedented lows

The global temperatures in 2023 did not just beat prior records; they smashed them.  Every month from June through November set all-time monthly temperature records. The US Northeast saw springlike temperatures at the end of the year.  The high temperature in Buffalo, New York on Christmas Day was 58 degrees.

Climate scientists have been predicting the warming trend that has been ongoing over the past several decades.  Indeed, computational models for 2023 called for a warm year.  Various models had a variety of projected temperatures and 2023’s heat was still broadly within the range of what was projected, although certainly at the high end.

The question is whether last year was an indicator that the planet’s warming is accelerating faster than we expect or that it just was a particularly warm year because of cyclical factors such as the El Niño that appeared last spring.

One theory that is being explored is that various types of industrial pollution have previously actually served to cool the atmosphere over time and as those sources are reduced for public health reasons, the warming effects of greenhouse gases have accelerated.

Currently, there is no consensus about why it seems to be getting warmer even faster than many climate models predict.  What there is no doubt about is that it is not a good thing.

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Earth Was Due for Another Year of Record Warmth. But This Warm?

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why Have Crocodiles Changed So Little Over Time? | Earth Wise

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Crocodiles today look very similar to ones from the Jurassic period some 200 million years ago.  In fact, there are very few species of crocodilians alive today – approximately two dozen to be exact.  Many other species have achieved a diversity of many thousands of species in the same amount of time. 

During prehistoric times, many more types of crocodiles roamed the earth, including some as big as dinosaurs and other serpentine forms that lived in the sea.  

According to findings by scientists at the University of Bristol in the U.K., a stop-start pattern of evolution could explain why crocodiles have changed so little over time. In the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Communications Biology, researchers describe how crocodiles follow a pattern of evolution known as “punctuated equilibrium.”  In other words, crocodiles’ rate of evolution is generally slow, but occasionally picks up because the environment has changed.     

According to the research team, this slow rate of evolution is how crocodile diversity became so limited.  It appears crocodiles arrived at a body that was efficient and versatile.  They didn’t need to continue to change in order to survive.

This efficiency and versatility could be an explanation for why crocodiles survived the meteor impact that wiped out the dinosaurs.  Since crocodiles can’t control their body temperature and rely on the environment for warmth, they generally fare better in warm conditions.  During the age of dinosaurs, the climate was warmer than it is today, which could explain why crocodile diversity was higher.  

The scientists next step is to try to figure out why some prehistoric crocodiles died out while others did not. 

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Why crocodiles have changed so little since the age of the dinosaurs

Photo, posted December 26, 2012, courtesy of Nicholas Smith via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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