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Methane-Eating Bacteria And Greenhouse Gas Emissions | Earth Wise

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One of the great concerns about the warming Arctic temperatures is that thawing permafrost will release alarming amounts of methane into the atmosphere.  Organic material in the permafrost begins to decompose when temperatures rise, and methane is released in the process.

Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.  Methane’s lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter than carbon dioxide, but it is more efficient at trapping radiation.  Pound for pound, the comparative impact of methane is more than 25 times greater than carbon dioxide.

A new study, published by scientists at Purdue University, has discovered a type of methane-oxidizing bacteria living in upland Arctic soils that could potentially be reducing the amount of methane emitted by decomposing permafrost.

The findings of the research indicate that the net greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic may be much smaller than previously modeled because of the increased productivity of a type of bacteria known as high affinity methanotrophs, or HAMs.  This group of bacteria uses atmospheric methane as an energy source.  The emissions from wetlands will potentially be very large, but the contribution from the uplands will be mitigated by the bacteria.

Organic-rich soils, including permafrost, comprise only 13% of the Arctic land area and are the major source of methane emissions.  The other 87% of the region is dominated by mineral-rich soils that support HAMs.  Because of this, overall methane emissions continue to be less than climate models have predicted.

While this is good news, the researchers warn that Arctic emissions overall will continue to increase as shown in other studies.

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Methane-Eating Bacteria Could Help Decrease Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Thawing Arctic Tundra

Photo, posted July 12, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Extreme Wildfire Seasons | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by researchers at Stanford University, autumn in California feels more like summer now as a result of climate change, and this hotter and drier weather increases the risk of longer and more dangerous wildfire seasons.

The research team, whose work was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that the frequency of extreme fire weather conditions in the fall in California has doubled since the early 1980s.  Average temperatures during the season have increased by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and rainfall has fallen by approximately 30%.  The most pronounced warming has occurred in the late summer and early fall.  That finding means that tinder-dry conditions coincide with the strong “Diablo” and “Santa Ana” winds that are typical in California at this time of year.     

In recent years, these conditions have fed large and fast-moving wildfires across California.  The state’s two largest wildfires, two most destructive wildfires, and the most deadly wildfire all occurred during 2017 and 2018, resulting in more than 150 deaths and $50 billion in damage.

Because summertime has typically been peak fire season, the recent spate of autumn fires is putting a strain on firefighting resources and funding.  The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could further strain emergency resources.  Since fire-prone regions have historically shared  wildfire-fighting resources throughout the year, the consequences of California’s extended wildfire season could have a global impact.  (For example, California’s recent autumn wildfires have coincided with the beginning of wildfires in Australia). 

The researchers highlight some opportunities to manage the intensifying wildfire risk in California, including limiting the trajectory of global warming in keeping with the targets identified in the United Nations’ Paris agreement.

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Researchers forecast longer, more extreme wildfire seasons

Photo, posted September 12, 2019, courtesy of the California National Guard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Boutique Hotels For Birds | Earth Wise

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The changing Arctic climate has had a drastic effect on its seabirds.  In fact, seabirds worldwide are in crisis, with global populations plummeting nearly 70% over the past 70 years as a result of climate change, over-fishing, habitat loss, and other human impacts on their environment.

Above the Arctic circle in Norway, seabird behavior has changed dramatically.  Black-legged kittiwakes – which are the most seafaring member of the gull family – used to nest in cliffs over the ocean and seldom ventured inland.  But in recent years, that has changed.  Because of a warming ocean, increased storminess and other changes that are decimating chick populations in their normal habitat, the birds have been setting up housekeeping in places like shopping centers and office buildings in Tromsø and other towns along Norway’s north coast.

Tromsø, Hammerfest and other towns at the very north end of Norway have become very popular with tourists seeking the Northern Lights and wanting to see glaciers before they disappear.  The booming tourism has been put on hold for the moment as it has elsewhere, but when it returns, the regions growing hotels and shopping areas are facing a problem.

The birds taking up residence on these buildings are unpleasant neighbors.  They are especially noisy during the breeding season and people are having to put up nets or spikes on buildings to discourage the kittiwakes from settling there.

Local ecologists are now building boutique hotels just for kittiwakes. Using abandoned buildings on piers, they are adding ledges for nesting, materials for nest-building, and electronic speakers that croon kittiwake songs.  The hope is that the birds will stay in their own hotels and leave the other ones for the human tourists.

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Norwegians are building boutique hotels for threatened Arctic birds

Photo, posted April 14, 2018, courtesy of Charlie Jackson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Why The Arctic Is Warming So Fast | Earth Wise

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The Arctic has been warming at the fastest rate of any place on Earth.  There have long been observations of amplification of Arctic warming, meaning that its temperature increases have been well above what would be expected from the global temperature rise.

Many climate models have attributed this warming to the melting of sea ice.  As the bright white ice disappears for longer periods of the year, the dark surface waters that are exposed absorb sunlight rather than reflecting it back into space the way the ice does.  This is known as the ice-albedo feedback.  But it does not entirely explain the amount of warming in the Arctic.

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory that helps to explain what is going on.

In the areas of the Arctic Ocean where there is sea ice, the water is actually warmer at depth and colder near the surface.  The deeper waters are fed by the relatively warm Pacific and Atlantic Oceans while the surface water is cooled by the ice.  The increasing temperature difference between surface and deeper water causes a greater upward flow of heat.  This was first observed in research cruises that revealed evidence that the Arctic Ocean water was becoming more turbulent over time.

According to computer modeling, this phenomenon is responsible for about 20% of the amplification of global warming that occurs in the Arctic.

There are multiple ongoing studies looking at the Arctic warming trend.  Other factors that have contributed over time are the presence of chlorfluorocarbons in the atmosphere.   That contribution is waning since the use of CFCs has been phasing out over time.

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Researchers Find New Reason Why Arctic is Warming So Fast

Photo, posted April 19, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Clouds And Global Warming | Earth Wise

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Recent climate models from multiple organizations project that the amount of warming that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide would cause would be much more than previously estimated.  And one of the significant changes to the models relates to the role of clouds.

Clouds have long been a major uncertainty in climate calculations.  Clouds can shade the earth and thereby provide cooling.  But clouds can also trap heat.  Which effect dominates depends on how reflective the clouds are, how high up they are, and whether it is day or night.  The dynamics of clouds are complicated.

If you fly across the ocean, you will see blankets of low clouds extending for hundreds of miles.  These marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds predominantly cool the Earth.  In fact, they shade roughly a fifth of the oceans and reflect 30-60% of the solar radiation that hits them back into space.

Recent studies indicate that as global temperatures rise, these clouds are likely to become thinner or burn off entirely, leaving more clear skies through which the sun may add another degree Celsius or more to global warming.

The concerns about clouds are part of the larger issue about feedbacks in warming the world.  It has long been clear that the greenhouse effect of doubling CO2 levels in the atmosphere would raise global temperature.  But there are amplifying feedback effects.  Melting large areas of snow and ice reduces reflectivity and allows the land and oceans to absorb more heat.  More water vapor entering the atmosphere traps more heat.  And now clouds are another concern.

Overall, these effects are leading to climate models predicting much larger global temperature increases, which is a scary prospect for the world.

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Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming

Photo, posted September 10, 2006, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Record Antarctic Temperature | Earth Wise

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It is still early in the year, but extreme weather events are already piling up.  January was the warmest month on record globally and there have been many records shattered in Europe and Asia.  A number of places in Eastern Europe, including parts of Russia, have seen temperatures 12 to 13 degrees above average.

While the warming of the Arctic has been in the news with increasing frequency, the Antarctic is also seeing rising temperatures and is one of the fastest-warming regions in the world. 

On February 6th, Esperanza Base along Antarctica’s Trinity Peninsula measured a temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the highest temperature ever recorded on that continent.   This rather balmy temperature narrowly beat out the previous record of 63.5 degrees, which occurred in March of 2015.

This one-time reading is certainly anomalous, and scientists say it is associated with a ridge of high pressure that was lingering over the region for several days.  Local wind conditions led to additional warming.

However, the conditions leading to record-breaking high temperatures are not one-time anomalous events. Over the past 50 years, temperatures in the Antarctic have surged by an extraordinary 5 degrees in response to the Earth’s rapidly warming climate.  A rise of five degrees in day-to-day weather is no big deal. A five-degree rise in a region’s average temperature is enormous.

About 87% of the glaciers along the west coast of Antarctica’s Trinity Peninsula have retreated over that 50-year period, most of which doing so during just the past 12 years.

Some researchers claim that the new temperature record is an extreme event that doesn’t tell us anything about the changing climate.  Many others are convinced that there will be many more high temperature records to follow.

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Antarctica just hit 65 degrees, its warmest temperature ever recorded

Photo, posted February 24, 2019, courtesy of Mike via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Melting Permafrost | Earth Wise

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The Arctic is warming faster than any region on Earth and mostly we’ve been hearing about the rapid disappearance of Arctic sea ice.  But the land in the Arctic is also undergoing major changes, especially to the permafrost that has been there for millennia.

Permafrost occurs in areas where the temperature of the ground remains below freezing for two years or more.  About a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere’s landscape meets this criterion.  Most of the world’s permafrost is found in northern Russia, Canada, Alaska, Iceland, and Scandinavia.

Permafrost regions previously carpeted in cranberries, blueberries, shrubs, sedges, and lichen are now being transformed into nothing but mud, silt, and peat.  So-called regressive thaw slumps – essentially landslides – are creating large craters in the landscape.  (The Batagaika Crater in the Yana River Basin of Siberia is a kilometer long and 100 meters deep).

Apart from the violence being done to the Arctic landscape, the greatest concern is that the permafrost has locked in huge stores of greenhouse gases, including methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide.  It is estimated that the permafrost contains twice as much carbon as is currently contained in the atmosphere.  As the permafrost thaws, these gases will be released.  With them will be pathogens from bygone millennia whose impact cannot be predicted.  Climatologists estimate that 40% of the permafrost could be gone by the end of the century.

As the permafrost thaws, the region’s ecosystems are changing, making it increasingly difficult for subsistence indigenous people and Arctic animals to find food.  Landslides are causing stream flows to change, lakes to suddenly drain, seashores to collapse, and water chemistry to be altered.

The warming Arctic is about much more than disappearing sea ice.

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How Thawing Permafrost Is Beginning to Transform the Arctic

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Rising Threat Of Rising Seas | Earth Wise

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Global sea level rose by about 6 inches during the 20th century.  It is currently rising more than twice as fast and accelerating.  The rate of rise was 2.5 times faster from 2006 to 2016 than it was for nearly all of the 20th century.

Sea level rise occurs when glaciers and ice sheets lose mass.  Much of that meltwater comes from Greenland and Antarctica.  But levels also rise because, as water warms, it expands.  Added to that are the effects of human activities such as groundwater depletion and a geological phenomenon called isostatic adjustment that is going on in parts of the East Coast where the land is actually sinking.

In Atlantic Canada, sea level rise is outpacing the global average and has already led to boardwalks swamped by swelling tides, drowned forests, submerged wharfs, and threatened historic shoreline buildings.

Recent research suggests that globally, land now occupied by 300 million people could be affected by floods at least once a year by 2050 unless carbon emissions are significantly reduced, and coastal defenses strengthened.  (This new figure is more than three times higher than earlier estimates).

Researchers at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia are studying nature-based strategies for mitigating the effects of the rising seas.  These include conserving or restoring coastal ecosystems like dunes, wetlands, and reefs which could provide protection at a lower cost than building seawalls and other man-made obstacles.  Wetlands, for example, can reduce the force of waves and act as obstacles to storm surges, while also trapping sediment and stemming erosion.  Wetlands also serve as important carbon stores, but it is estimated that roughly half of the world’s coastal wetlands have been lost over the past 100 years to human activity and extreme weather events.

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The Looming Threat of Rising Sea Levels – And What We Can Do About it

Photo, posted February 14, 2015, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bird Migration And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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A new study of bird migration shows the migration patterns are shifting as a result of climate change.   Researchers at Colorado State University, the University of Massachusetts, and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, looked at the impacts of climate change on a continental scale.

The team looked at the nocturnal migratory behaviors of hundreds of species representing billions of birds using radar and other data.  They found that spring migrants are likely to pass certain stops earlier now than they would have 20 years ago.  Temperature and migration timing are closely aligned and the greatest changes in migration timing are occurring in regions warming most rapidly.  During the fall, shifts in migration were less apparent.

Migratory birds play an important role in ecosystems.  They consume insects, disperse seeds, and perform various other significant functions. Birds serve as critical metrics of the health of ecosystems.

Bird migration is a global phenomenon that can provide unique visibility into changes in the climate.  The ability to look at it on a global scale has only recently become practical as a result of big data technology and cloud computing.  The team was able to crunch the numbers for the study in 48 hours, a task that previously would have taken over a year of continuous computing.

The findings have implications for understanding future patterns of bird migration because birds depend on food and other resources as they travel.  As the climate changes, the timing of blooming vegetation or the emergence of insects may end up out of sync with the passage of migratory birds.  This could have negative consequences for the health of migratory birds.

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Bird migration timing skewed by climate, new research finds

Photo, posted November 5, 2019, courtesy of Jerry Kirkhart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Community Action And Coral Reefs

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Coral reef habitats are some of the densest and most varied ecosystems on earth.  While coral reefs cover just 0.2% of the ocean floor, scientists estimate that nearly one million different species of fish, invertebrates, and algae can be found in or around coral reefs. 

However, climate change is wreaking havoc on the health of coral reefs.  Warming and acidifying oceans are resulting in enormous coral losses.  Overfishing, development, and pollution are also threatening coral reef health.

According to new research, positive community action can help boost fish populations in coral reefs and safeguard future fish numbers.  The paper, which was recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, details the social and ecological outcomes of work being done in Papua New Guinea since 2001. 

These communities have established a traditional system of rotational fishing closures in order to manage their fisheries resources.   They ban fishing on part of their reefs for a few years, and then open these closures when village elders believe fish behavior has changed and fish populations have recovered.  They then close a different part of their reefs, and repeat the process. 

The researchers found that these rotational practices resulted in more than twice as many fish on the closed reefs as compared to open ones, and the closures made fish less scared of people and easier to catch.  But the researchers did caution that this short term boost in fish numbers may not be enough to stop the overall impact of fishing.

Globally, more than 500 million people depend on coral reefs for food, income, and coastal protection.  Balancing community needs with environmental needs can be tricky business.  

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Positive community action can help coral reef health

Photo, posted October 11, 2011, courtesy of Paul Toogood via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Scandinavian Wine

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The warming climate is creating some unexpected entrepreneurial opportunities.  Many places that have traditionally dominated the wine industry are starting to be worried that the local climates that made them ideal for vineyards are changing and becoming much less ideal.  On the other hand, places where wine-making was regarded as a losing proposition are becoming much more hospitable.  A prime example is Scandinavia.

Nordic vintners are increasingly convinced that they can develop thriving commercial operations in what used to be places that are too cold for successful wine-making.

Denmark now has 90 commercial vineyards, up from just two 15 years ago.  Forty vineyards have sprung up in Sweden.  About a dozen vineyards are now operating as far north as Norway.

Many of these Nordic vineyards are in the startup stage and are tiny compared with the established wineries of Europe.  Europe has 10 million acres of vineyards, which is enough to cover almost the entire country of Denmark.  At the moment, there are only about 1,000 acres of vineyards in Denmark and Sweden.

But, looking forward, Scandinavia’s climate is forecast to be more like northern France, as regional temperatures climb as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit.  Over the past decade, warming has produced milder winters, a longer growing season, and even a small but rising number of award-winning Scandinavian wines.

Meanwhile, traditional wine-growing regions are also dealing with climate change.  Winemakers in France, for example, are experimenting with grapes from warmer countries like Tunisia to see if they can retain the tastes and yields that are the basis of a multibillion-dollar wine industry.  Spanish and Italian winemakers are planting grapes higher up on mountainsides or on shaded north-facing slopes to preserve the quality of their wine.

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Scandinavian Wine? A Warming Climate Tempts Entrepreneurs

Photo, posted August 24, 2019, courtesy of Ron Reiring via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Arctic As A Carbon Source

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According to a new NASA-funded study, the Arctic may now be a source for carbon in the atmosphere rather than being the sink for it that is has been for tens of thousands of years.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, warns that carbon dioxide loss from the world’s permafrost regions could increase by more than 40% over the next century if human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace.  Worse yet, carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not even been included in most climate models.

Permafrost is the carbon-rich frozen soil and organic matter that covers nearly a quarter of Northern Hemisphere land area, mostly in Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and Greenland.  Permafrost holds more carbon than has ever been released by humans from fossil fuel burning, but it has been safely locked away by ice for tens of thousands of years.

As global temperatures rise, the permafrost is starting to thaw and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The recent findings indicate that the loss of carbon dioxide during the winter in the Arctic may already be offsetting carbon uptake during the growing season.  The researchers compiled on-the-ground observations of carbon dioxide emissions across many sites and combined these with remote sensing data and modeling.  They estimate that the permafrost region is now losing 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon during the winter season but taking up only 1 billion during the growing season.

The major concern is that as the Arctic continues to warm, more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will further the warming.  Climate modeling teams across the globe are trying to incorporate these findings into their projections.

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Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions

Photo, posted July 27, 2015, courtesy of Gary Bembridge via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And El Niño

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The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.  Amazingly, the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns.

The study, led by scientists in China and the US, looked at data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901.  Since the 1970s, El Niños have been forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer.  Strong El Niños can cause severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the US Pacific Northwest and Peru, and more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic.

Before 1978, 12 out of 14 El Niños formed east of the International Dateline.  Since 1978, all 11 have formed in the central or western Pacific Ocean a shift of hundreds of miles.  There have been three so-called super El Niños since the shift – in 1982, 1997, and 2015.  These have set new average temperature records and triggered catastrophic natural disasters.

With rising global temperatures, El Niños are likely to continue to intensify, with major impacts on human societies around the world.

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Climate Change is Making El Niños More Intense, Study Finds

Photo, posted January 20, 2016, courtesy of Los Angeles District via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The March Of The Penguins Toward Extinction

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According to a new study from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the warming climate may render emperor penguins extinct by the end of this century.  The study, which was part of an international collaboration between scientists, finds that emperor penguins will likely experience an 86% decline by 2100 if the global climate continues to warm at the current rate.  At that point, it would be very unlikely for them to recover, according to the study’s lead author.       

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and recently published in the journal Global Change Biology.

The fate of emperor penguins is largely tied to the fate of sea ice.  The penguins use sea ice as a place for breeding, feeding, and molting.  They look for very specific conditions of sea ice – it must be locked in to the Antarctic shoreline but also close enough to open seawater to give them access to food. The study predicts that this sea ice will gradually disappear, depriving the birds of their habitat, food sources, and ability to raise their young.     

The researchers combined two existing computer models to study three different climate change scenarios.  If the average global temperature increases by only 1.5 degrees Celsius, the study found that only 5% of sea ice would be lost by 2100, resulting in a 19% drop in penguin colonies.  If the planet warms by 2 degrees Celsius, the sea ice loss nearly triples and more than a third of penguin colonies disappear.  The ‘business as usual’ scenario where the planet continues to warm at the current rate will ensure a near complete loss of emperor penguin colonies by 2100. 

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Unless warming is slowed, emperor penguins will be marching towards extinction

Photo, posted January 15, 2011, courtesy of Eli Duke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Pesticides In The Great Barrier Reef

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Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is one of the greatest natural wonders in the world and it has been under siege by warming waters and ocean acidification.  Widespread coral bleaching has damaged or destroyed large portions of the 1,400-mile long coral reef system.  But the effects of climate change are not the only threat to the reef.  Pesticides found in waterways that flow into the Great Barrier Reef are another serious problem.

According to a new study by the University of Queensland, the combined toxicity of 22 of the most common pesticides that flow into the Reef are not meeting pollution reduction targets.

Different pesticides affect different organisms.  Herbicides affect organisms that photosynthesize such as seagrass, corals, mangroves, and algae.  Insecticides affect insect larvae in freshwater, and crustaceans such as crabs, prawns, and lobsters.  Previous assessments have only examined individual pesticides and only for limited times.  The new study has utilized a methodology that estimates the combined toxicity of multiple pesticides found in the waterways that discharge into the Reef and does it for the entire wet season.

The research revealed that the pesticide reduction target set in the Australian Government’s Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan is not being met.  Only one natural resource management region – the Cape York region – was found to be meeting its target.

By having estimates of the risk posed by pesticides in the various regions and individual waterways, governments, farmers, and conservationists can see which areas pose the greatest risk and where to maximize efforts.  Stakeholders have to come together to reduce pesticide concentrations through better management practices and by using less toxic pesticides.

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High pesticide concentrations continue to enter Great Barrier Reef

Photo, posted July 29, 2010, courtesy of Kyle Taylor via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Europe Is Warming Faster Than Predicted

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A new study has found that Europe is warming faster than even climate models projected.  The number of summer days with extreme heat in Europe has tripled since the 1950s, while the number of days with extreme cold has decreased by factors of two or three depending on the region.

According to climate scientists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, the climate trends are much larger than what would come from natural variability and are a clear signal of climate change.  Extremely hot days in Europe have become hotter by an average of more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit while extremely cold days have warmed by more than 5 degrees.  The research examined data from weather stations across Europe from 1950 to 2018.  Over 90% of the stations recorded increasing temperatures over time, a percentage much too high to be purely from natural climate variability.  The results also showed that the region was warming even faster than climate models projected.

The research results come after an extremely hot summer in Europe.  Southern France hit 114.8 degrees, a new record, in June.  Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium all recorded all-time national temperature highs.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently announced that July was the hottest month ever recorded.

European summers and winters will only grow hotter in the coming years as climate change accelerates.  The rapidly increasing temperatures will impact cities and people that are unprepared for them and pose real risks for residents in the coming decades.  Extreme heat is dangerous because it stresses the human body, potentially leading to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

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Europe warming faster than expected due to climate change

Photo, posted July 30, 2011, courtesy of Marcel de Jong via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The ‘Biggest Ever’ Arctic Expedition

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The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth.  In fact, it’s warming at a rate of almost twice the global average.  And, since what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic, the world is already feeling the effects: rising sea levels, changes in climate and precipitation patterns, increasing severe weather events, and so on. 

As a result, researchers from more than a dozen countries have launched the biggest and most complex expedition ever attempted in the Arctic.  They plan to freeze Germany’s largest research vessel, the Polarstern, into Arctic sea ice, where it will remain trapped for twelve months.  The ship will drift with the sea ice as the sea ice drifts.  The vessel will serve as a research laboratory, hosting a rotating crew of 300 scientists.  The ice, the ocean, the atmosphere, and even the wildlife will all be sampled.  This year-long journey will give researchers their closest look at how the polar climate and its fragile ecosystems are changing. 

Led by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany, the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate project (or MOSAiC) is expected to cost about $150 million. 

One major goal of MOSAiC is to improve strikingly uncertain climate projections for the Arctic.  Climate models disagree on how much more the Arctic will warm as the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rises and sea ice shrinks.  Some project a 5ºC rise by 2100 relative to the 1986-2005 average.  Others predict a 10ºC increase. 

Understanding the complex processes occurring in the Arctic is essential for projecting the future impacts of climate change. 

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Climate scientists prepare for largest ever Arctic expedition

Climate change: Polarstern leaves for ‘biggest ever’ Arctic expedition

Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Meeting Climate Goals With Current Energy Infrastructure

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The Paris Climate Agreement set forth a goal to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius as well as a more optimistic (and preferable) goal of keeping the temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees.  Reaching either of these goals requires getting to net-zero emissions by the middle of the century.

A new paper, published in Nature, looks at the issue of whether existing power plants and other fossil-fuel-burning equipment (including vehicles) can continue to operate until they age out of functionality, or whether they need to be retired early.

The results of the study are that future emissions from existing facilities would take up the entire carbon budget needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and almost 2/3 of the budget needed to keep warming below 2 degrees over the next 30 years.

So, the good news is that we can still avoid a 2-degree rise without having to shut down all the existing power plants early.  But we would definitely have to stop building new things with smokestacks and tailpipes that dump CO2 into the atmosphere. 

That good news is tempered by the fact that the number of fossil fuel-burning power plants and vehicles in the world has increased dramatically over the past decade, spurred by rapid economic and industrial development in China and India.  In fact, China is predicted to produce more than 40% of all the carbon emissions over the next 30 years.

The 2-degree climate goal is not at all the most desirable result.  The 1.5-degree target would be far better for the climate.  But if the world is to achieve it, there will be dramatic changes needed in the existing infrastructure – either shutting it down or retrofitting it to drastically reduce emissions.

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Two-Degree Climate Goal Attainable Without Early Infrastructure Retirement

Photo, posted March 5, 2010, courtesy of Tennessee Valley Authority via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Refugee Corals

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As climate change warms the ocean, subtropical environments are becoming more favorable for corals than the equatorial waters where they traditionally thrived.  As a result, drifting coral larvae are settling and growing in new regions.

According to new research in the journal Marine Ecology Progress Series, the number of young corals on tropical reefs has declined by 85% over the past 40 years.  At the same time, the numbers on subtropical reefs has doubled.

Only certain types of coral can reach these new subtropical locations.  That depends on how far the microscopic larvae can swim and drift on currents before they exhaust their limited fat stores.  Thus, the reef ecosystems that develop have new blends of species that have previously never coexisted.  It is not clear how long it will take for the new systems to reach equilibrium.

Coral reefs are complicated systems that depend on the interplay between species to enable their healthy functioning.  Apart from the corals themselves, there are the coraline algae that symbiotically coexist with them.  How all of this will play out in these evolving ecosystems is unknown.

In the meantime, the research has found that these refugee corals are settling at latitudes up to 35 degrees both north and south of the equator.  It is no longer so clear what constitute native species in the reefs.  It remains to be seen whether new reefs in subtropical oceans can support the incredible biodiversity seen in tropical reefs.  But ultimately, these changing ecosystems could potentially bring new resources and opportunities, such as fishing and tourism, to places where they never existed before.

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Web Links

Coral Reefs Shifting Away from Equatorial Waters

Photo, posted March 22, 2011, courtesy of Simone Lovati via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Hottest Month Ever

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European climate researchers announced that July was the hottest July ever recorded and since July is generally the hottest month of the year, it was indeed the hottest month ever recorded.  It just barely beat out the previous record set in July 2016.  There are multiple agencies that track temperatures around the world, and it is possible that some of them may report slightly different results. 

But whatever July’s ultimate ranking is, it is part of a long-term trend.  The past five years have been the hottest on record.   The 10 hottest years ever recorded have all occurred during the past twenty years.

This June was also the warmest on record, and the previous five months were all among the four warmest for their respective months.  All of that puts this year on track to be in the top five warmest years, or perhaps the hottest ever.

The highest above-average conditions were recorded across Alaska, Greenland, and large areas of Siberia.   Large parts of Africa and Australia were warmer than normal, as was much of central Asia.  New temperature records were set in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany with temperatures over 104 degrees Fahrenheit.  Great Britain saw an all-time record of 101.7 degrees and Anchorage, Alaska stayed above 79 degrees for a record six days in a row.

Wildfires have raged across the Russian Arctic, India has suffered heatwaves and severe water shortages, and Japan saw more than 5,000 people seek hospital treatment during a heatwave.

While scientists cannot directly link any particular heatwave to climate change, the trend for new heat records is likely to continue and accelerate unless we do something about curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

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Web Links

How Hot Was July? Hotter Than Ever, Global Data Shows

Photo, posted May 25, 2019, courtesy of Jakob Montrasio via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)