tropical pacific

La Niña has arrived

February 26, 2025 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

After seven months of waiting following the end of the recent El Niño condition, La Niña finally showed up in the eastern Pacific Ocean in early December.

El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide. Normally, trade winds in the Pacific blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. To replace the warm water, cold water rises from the depths. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas. As a result, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual.

During La Niña, trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. This results in more upwelling of cooler water from the depths. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North.

According to the report published in January by NOAA, the La Niña that has arrived is not a particularly strong one. Sea surface temperatures are only about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit below average in the tropical Pacific. The report also suggests that the La Niña condition may not stick around very long.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon adds a natural source of year-to-year variability in global temperatures. The presence of La Niña for at least part of this year may temporarily keep the lid on rapidly climbing global temperatures.

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La Niña Is Here

Photo, posted November 23, 2011, courtesy of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

National drought

December 5, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Climate change brings with it many kinds of extreme weather. It isn’t just higher temperatures. It is changing patterns of weather and weather events that are rare or even unprecedented.

Late October saw drought conditions throughout almost the entire United States. Only Alaska and Kentucky did not have at least moderate drought conditions.

The previous four months were consistently warmer than normal over a large area of the country. When that period started, about a quarter of the country was at least somewhat dry, but in late October, 87% of the country was dry.

Droughts in many parts of the U.S. and in places around the world are becoming more frequent, longer in duration, and more severe.

Residents of New York City were urged to start conserving water. This October was the driest October since record keeping began in 1869. The upstate reservoirs that supply New York’s water were below two-thirds full. They are normally more than three-quarters full in the fall.

Even the Southeast, which received huge amounts of rain from Hurricane Helene, is experiencing drought. Not much rain had fallen since that storm and warmer temperatures mean more evaporation and drier soils.

Drought is not just a lack of precipitation. Drought conditions are driven by abnormally high temperatures that remove moisture from the atmosphere and the ground.

Whether widespread drought conditions will persist is unknown. If a predicted La Niña condition develops in the tropical Pacific, drought conditions in the southern half of the country could get worse, but the Northeast could see lots of rain and snow.

To have nearly the entire country experiencing drought conditions is pretty rare. But unusual weather is becoming the new normal.

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In a Record, All but Two U.S. States Are in Drought

Photo, posted May 21, 2024, courtesy of Adam Bartlett via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

California Flooding | Earth Wise

February 2, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Starting in December, a series of “atmospheric rivers” brought record storms to California producing as much rain in three weeks in some areas as they normally have in an entire year. The historic levels of rain (and snow in the mountains) have swollen rivers, flooded roads and homes, forced evacuations, knocked out electric power for millions of people, and resulted in more than 20 deaths.

Atmospheric rivers are air currents that carry large amounts of water vapor through the sky. They are not unusual for California but recurrent waves of them like those that have happened recently are very infrequent. Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that such a phenomenon recurs in California every 250 years. There were a series of storms causing disastrous floods in California in 1861-62.

The atmospheric rivers are born in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific. During La Nina phases, the atmospheric rivers typically make landfall on the northern West Coast. During El Nino phases, atmospheric rivers are more likely to end up in Southern and Central California. During transitions between the phases, as is happening now, the storms can cover large parts of the state.

Modern forecasting is pretty good at predicting the forthcoming occurrence of these storms and has led to some helpful actions, such as reservoir operators preventing dams from overflowing or bursting. But there is a gap between science and decision-making. It is pretty clear what needs to be done when tornados or hurricanes are on the way. It is less clear what actions are appropriate when there are going to be repeated heavy rainstorms.

These storms will have an effect on California’s megadrought, but just how much of an effect remains to be seen.

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Flooding in California: What Went Wrong, and What Comes Next

Photo, posted January 5, 2023, courtesy of Sarah Stierch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio