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A Growing Threat To Wheat | Earth Wise

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Wheat is one of the most widely-grown crops in the world and plays a major role in human nutrition.  In fact, wheat contributes approximately 20% of the protein and 20% of the calories consumed by humans globally.  It is grown on every continent except Antarctica.  

But wheat is under growing attacks from harmful toxins.  According to a new study by researchers from the University of Bath and the University of Exeter in the U.K., almost half of wheat crops across Europe are impacted by the fungal infection that gives rise to mycotoxins.

Mycotoxins are naturally occurring toxins produced by the fungus that causes Fusarium Head Blight.  Fusarium Head Blight is a disease that affects wheat and other grains growing in the field. Eating products contaminated with mycotoxins can cause sickness in humans and livestock, including vomiting and other gastrointestinal problems.

In the study, the research team examined 10 years of government and agribusiness data, which tracked Fusarium mycotoxins in wheat entering the food and animal supply chains across Europe and the U.K.  Half of the wheat intended for human food in Europe contained the Fusarium mycotoxin.  In the UK, 70% of wheat was contaminated.

Governments set legal limits on mycotoxin contamination levels in wheat that is to be consumed by humans. But with the ubiquitous nature of these mycotoxins, the effect of constant, low-level exposure in the diet over the course of a lifetime is not known. 

With climate change and the war in Ukraine already impacting both wheat yield and price, preventing toxin contamination is critical to help maintain a stable crop price and to protect global good security. 

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Harmful fungal toxins in wheat: a growing threat across Europe

Photo, posted July 11, 2011, courtesy of Maria Keays via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Examining The Decline Of Honey Bees | Earth Wise

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For many years, scientists have been sounding the alarm on the global struggle of pollinators.  Many of the invertebrate pollinator species, such as bees and butterflies, are facing extinction. And since 75% of the world’s food crops depend on pollination to some extent, the decline of pollinators poses a major threat to global food security.

Honey bees are among the struggling pollinators.  Over the past 14 years, bee colonies have been disappearing at an alarming rate in what is known as the “colony collapse disorder.” 

In an effort to understand why, scientists have often focused their research on environmental stressors, such as parasites, pesticides, and disease.  But according to new research by entomologists from the University of Maryland, honey bee life spans are simply 50% shorter today than they were 50 years ago.  In the study, which was recently published in the journal Scientific Reports, the researchers found that honey bees kept in a controlled, laboratory environment lived half as long as honey bees did in the 1970s.  This is the first study to show that genetics – as opposed to environmental stressors – may be influencing the broader trends seen in the beekeeping industry.

When the researchers modeled the effect of their findings on a beekeeping operation, they found that the resulting loss rates were about 33%.  This is similar to the average overwinter and annual loss rates reported by beekeepers during the past 14 years.

The next step is for researchers to compare trends in honey bee life spans across the U.S. and in other countries to see if there are differences in bee longevity. 

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Honey Bee Lifespans are 50% Shorter Today Than They Were 50 Years Ago

Helping Agriculture’s Helpful Honey Bees

Photo, posted June 23, 2007, courtesy of Susan E. Ellis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Trees Are Growing Bigger | Earth Wise

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The alarming rate of carbon dioxide flowing into the atmosphere is having a real and actually positive effect on plant life. Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide make plants more productive because photosynthesis makes use of the sun’s energy to synthesize sugar out of carbon dioxide and water.  Plants make use of the sugar both as a source of energy and as the basic building block for growth.  When carbon dioxide levels go up, plants can take it up faster, supercharging the rate of photosynthesis.

In a new study published in the journal Nature Communications, scientists at Ohio State University found that trees are feasting on decades of carbon dioxide emissions and are growing bigger as a result. 

The researchers tracked wood volume in 10 different tree groups from 1997 to 2017 and found that all of them except aspens and birches grew larger.  Over that time period, carbon dioxide levels climbed from 363 parts per million to 405 parts per million.  According to the study, each 1% increase in lifetime CO2 exposure for trees has led to more than a 1% increase in wood volume.

In the big picture, the news isn’t so positive.  The global warming caused by increasing carbon dioxide levels increasingly threatens the forests of the world.  It has led to worsening droughts, insect infestations, and wildfires.  So overall, increasing levels of carbon dioxide are by no means a good thing for the world’s trees.  However, since trees are growing bigger more quickly, it means that planting them is an increasingly cost-effective method for fighting climate change because the same number of trees can sequester more carbon.

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As Carbon Dioxide Grows More Abundant, Trees Are Growing Bigger, Study Finds

Photo, posted September 12, 2015, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Sinking Cities | Earth Wise

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Sea levels across the globe are rising as a result of the changing climate.  Two factors are largely responsible: the melting of ice sheets in the polar regions and the fact that as the oceans get warmer, the water in them expands.  

Estimates are that by 2050, there will be over 800 million people living in 570 cities that will be at risk from rising sea levels.   The rising waters can drown neighborhoods, put people’s lives at risk, and wreck entire economies.  Unless global emissions can be reduced sufficiently, sea levels will continue to rise.

A new study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability by Nanyang Technical University in Singapore in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, ETH Zurich, and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, has focused on yet another aspect of the threat to coastal cities.  They have found that many densely populated coastal cities worldwide are even more vulnerable to sea level rise because much of their land is sinking. 

The researchers processed satellite images of 48 cities from 2014 to 2020 using a system called Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar.  They found that land subsidence varied on a neighborhood and even individual block level but across all the cities studied, there was a median sinking speed of 6/10” a year.  Some places had land that is sinking at 1.7” per year.  Meanwhile, the global mean sea-level rise is about .15” per year.

The increasing prevalence of industrial processes such as the extraction of groundwater, and oil and gas, along with the rapid construction of buildings and other urban infrastructure are leading to the sinking of the urban areas. 

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Rapid land sinking leaves global cities vulnerable to rising seas

Photo, posted October 24, 2015, courtesy of Jeffrey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Propane Refrigerants | Earth Wise

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About 10% of the world’s total electricity supply is used for air conditioning.  If current temperature trends continue, the energy demands for space cooling will more than triple by the year 2050.  Air conditioning is a double threat to the environment.  Apart from using lots of energy, ACs also make use of halogenated refrigerants that are extremely powerful greenhouse gases.

The most common space cooling appliances are split-air conditioners, which use an indoor unit and an outdoor unit connected by pipes.  These split ACS mostly utilize HCFC-22 and HFC-410 as refrigerants, which have global warming potential scores as high as 2,256 – meaning they trap 2,256 times more heat than carbon dioxide. 

A study by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in Austria has shown that propane is a far better choice as an air conditioning refrigerant.  Its global warming potential is actually less than 1 meaning it traps less heat than carbon dioxide.  According to the study, if air conditioners switched to propane refrigerants, the world would avoid about a tenth of a degree Celsius of additional warming, which is a significant contribution to meeting the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Propane-based split-ACs are already available commercially in China and India.  Elsewhere, many national regulations prohibit their use, primarily due to codes restricting the use of refrigerants with higher flammability.  Given the increasingly urgent need for climate action, it seems to be time to reconsider regulations on refrigerants.

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Propane — a solution for more sustainable air conditioning

Photo, posted March 24, 2021, courtesy of Phyxter Home Services via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Rewilding The American West | Earth Wise

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Oregon State University scientists have proposed a series of management changes for western federal lands aimed at re-establishing ecosystems there.  Their proposal would result in more gray wolves and beavers in nearly 200,000 square miles of federal lands in 11 states.

In each of those states, the researchers identified areas containing prime wolf habitat.  Gray wolves were hunted to near extinction in the West but have been gradually reintroduced in some areas starting in the 1990s.  Wolf restoration offers significant ecological benefits by helping to naturally control the population of grazing animals such as elk.  This in turn facilitates the regrowth of vegetation species such as aspen, which ultimately supports diverse plant and animal communities.

Beaver populations, which used to be robust across the West, declined roughly 90% after settler colonialism and are now nonexistent in many areas.  By felling trees and shrubs and constructing dams, beavers enrich fish habitat, increase water and settlement retention, maintain water flows during droughts, and increase carbon sequestration.

According to the researchers, the biggest threat to these western lands is livestock grazing, which has degraded ecosystems to a great extent.  They recommend the removal of grazing on about 30% of the federal lands being used for that purpose and instead would have rewilding efforts go on. 

The American West is going through a period of converging crises including extended drought and water scarcity, extreme heat waves, massive fires, and loss of biodiversity.  Rewilding is a way to reestablish long-standing ecosystems.

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More wolves, beavers needed as part of improving western United States habitats, scientists say

Photo, posted October 1, 2020, courtesy of Tina DaPuglet via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Great Salt Lake Is Disappearing | Earth Wise

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Utah’s Great Salt Lake is the largest saltwater lake in the western hemisphere.  According to data from the US Geological Survey, the surface water elevation of the Great Salt Lake has fallen to the lowest level since records began in the mid-1800s.  The average elevation is now 4,190 feet above sea level.   With this drop in water level, the surface area of the lake is little more than half of its historical size.  The lower water level has exposed about 700 square miles of previously submerged lakebed.

The lake now contains about a quarter of the volume of water that it did at its high point in 1987.  The precipitous drop in water is a result of water usage from the lake coupled with climate change-fueled drought.   Increased water demand is due to the rapidly growing population of metropolitan Salt Lake City.  Utah’s population is projected to increase by almost 50% by 2060.

The Great Salt Lake goes though seasonal cycles of water loss and replenishment.  Rain and snow generally refill its level.  However, because of the ongoing megadrought in the West, water evaporation and depletion continue to exceed the amount of water entering the lake.  The water levels are expected to further decrease until fall or early winter, when incoming water is expected to equal or exceed evaporation.

The decline of the Great Salt Lake is a serious threat to the economy, ecology, and people of northern Utah.  The lake generates snowpack, is a refuge for hundreds of migratory birds and other wildlife and generates millions of dollars in the economy through mineral extraction and tourism.

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Utah’s Great Salt Lake is disappearing

Photo, posted October 6, 2020, courtesy of Julie Girard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

California Trees Are Dying | Earth Wise

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California relies on extensive forests to help reduce the amount of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere.  But extensive drought and increasingly frequent wildfires have been reducing the state’s tree population for the past three decades.

A comprehensive study by a team of scientists from the University of California Irvine used satellite data to study vegetation changes between 1985 and 2021.  Across the entire state, tree cover area has declined 6.7% over that time period.  The results varied from region to region across the state.

Southern California exhibited the sharpest decline, where 14% of the tree population in local mountain ranges vanished, potentially permanently.  In the Sierra Nevada mountains, tree populations were relatively stable until about 2010.  After that, a severe drought followed by historically large wildfires resulted in a 8.8% die-off of trees.  The northern parts of the state, with higher rainfall and cooler temperatures, fared better, being able to more easily recover from wildfires.

The study goes beyond measuring the tree population of the state and its effects on carbon storage.  The data is also important for understanding how changes in forest cover affects water resources and fire behavior in the state.

The decline of trees in California is affecting the carbon storage abilities of the state.  The satellite survey showed that as the tree populations have dropped, the state’s coverage of shrubs and grasses has risen, possibly indicating that permanent ecosystem shifts are occurring.  The forces contributing to the decline of trees in California are not going away any time soon.  As a result, the threat to California’s ability to mitigate the effects of climate change continues to grow.

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UCI study: California’s trees are dying, and might not be coming back

Photo, posted March 24, 2016, courtesy of David Fulmer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Building Resilient Food Systems | Earth Wise

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According to the United Nations and The World Bank, global hunger levels in 2021 surpassed the previous record set in 2020.  The organizations also found that acute food insecurity – defined as when a person’s inability to consume adequate food puts their lives or livelihoods in immediate danger – could continue to worsen this year in many countries around the world. 

According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Colorado Boulder, increased demand for water will be the biggest threat to food security during the next 20 years, followed closely by heat waves, droughts, income inequality, and political instability.  

The report, which was recently published in the journal One Earth, calls for increased collaboration to build a more resilient global food supply.  The impacts of conflict and climate change are already measured and studied around the world.  While these pressing threats are not new, the researchers found that better collaboration between these areas of research could fortify and strengthen global food security. 

In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the researchers surveyed 69 experts in various fields related to food security.  They found that many effects of climate change – such as unpredictable weather changes – could have the greatest negative impacts on food security.  The researchers also found that threats to food security from income inequality, global price shocks, and political instability and migration are highly likely during the next two decades.  More than half of the world’s food insecure populations also live in conflict-prone regions.

According to the research team, food security has never been a problem of production.  It’s a problem of distribution, access, and poverty, and can be exacerbated by conflict.   

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Amid climate change and conflict, more resilient food systems a must, report shows

Photo, posted July 19, 2009, courtesy of Danumurthi Mahendra via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Space Tourism And The Climate | Earth Wise

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Space tourism is human space travel for recreational purposes.  A few well-known billionaires have taken rocket rides in recent years and at least a dozen companies are at the vanguard of what they are expecting to be a burgeoning industry.  If space tourism truly takes off – pun intended – it could be a serious threat to the climate and the environment.

Black carbon – essentially soot – is emitted when fossil fuels, including rocket fuels, are burned.  Black carbon absorbs light from the sun and releases thermal energy, making it a powerful climate warming agent.  At lower altitudes, black carbon quickly falls from the sky, remaining in the atmosphere for only a matter of days or weeks.

Rockets are another story entirely.  They dump black carbon into the stratosphere as they blast into space, and up there black carbon is 500 times worse for the climate and sticks around for several years.

A detailed study by researchers at University College London looked at the climate impact of present-day space launches compared with the potential massive expansion of launches from a large space tourism industry.

The overall result is that current space launches are not a significant source of emissions, but space launches would become incredibly significant if projections of tourist space flights proved to be true.  Currently, there are roughly 100 space launches a year world-wide.  If that number becomes thousands, the impact on the climate would be substantial.

The same researchers looked at the ozone impact of rocket launches and reached a similar conclusion.  The current impact of spaceflights is not very significant, but a massive increase in launches could have a major impact on atmospheric ozone concentrations.

Space tourism may be exciting, but it also could be very dangerous for the planet.

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Space Tourism Poses a Significant ‘Risk to the Climate’

Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate

Photo, posted May 30, 2020, courtesy of Daniel Oberhaus (2020) via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Geoengineering Research Plan | Earth Wise

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The 2022 federal appropriations act, signed into law in March, directed the Office of Science and Technology Policy to develop a cross-agency group to coordinate research on climate interventions, in partnership with NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Department of Energy.

The group is tasked with creating a research framework to “provide guidance on transparency, engagement, and risk management for publicly funded work on solar geoengineering research.”  The group is supposed to develop a five-year plan that will define research goals for the field, assess the potential hazards of climate interventions, and evaluate the level of federal funding required to carry out the work.

This marks the first federally coordinated effort of this kind and is especially significant because it contributes to the perception that geoengineering is an appropriate and important area of research as the climate continues to warm.

It is an understatement to say that such research is controversial.  Geoengineering has often been a taboo topic among scientists. There are significant questions about potential environmental side effects and concerns that the impact of any such efforts would be felt unevenly in different parts of the world.  There are challenging questions about global governance , including who should be able to make decisions about any potential deployment of climate interventions and what the goals of such interventions should be.

These are momentous issues to grapple with, but as the threat of climate change grows and nations continue to fail to make rapid progress on emissions, researchers, universities, and nations are increasingly motivated to seriously explore the potential effects of geoengineering approaches.  We can’t hide from the fact that these issues are going to be explored.

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The US government is developing a solar geoengineering research plan

Photo, posted June 28, 2013, courtesy of Fernando Aramburu via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Is It Too Late To Save The Vaquita? | Earth Wise

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The vaquita porpoise, the world’s smallest marine mammal, is on the brink of extinction.  Scientists estimate that just 10 or fewer vaquitas are left despite international conservation efforts. Found only in Mexico’s Upper Gulf of California, the vaquita is the most endangered marine mammal on the planet. 

According to the International Committee for the Recovery of the Vaquita, the number one threat facing vaquitas is gillnets. The porpoises get trapped in these nets and drown.  Gillnets are often used illegally in the region to catch shrimp and fish, including the critically-endangered totoaba.  The totoaba’s swim bladder is considered a delicacy in Asia and can fetch thousands of dollars.  Despite Mexico banning both totoaba fishing and the use of gillnets in the vaquitas’ habitat, many say the bans are not always enforced.  

But there is a reason to be hopeful.  According to a genetic analysis led by researchers at UCLA, the critically-endangered species actually remains relatively healthy and can potentially survive if illegal fishing practices cease immediately. 

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Science, the research team analyzed the genomes of 20 vaquitas between 1985 and 2017 and ran simulations to predict the species’ extinction risk over the next 50 years.  The researchers concluded that if gillnet fishing ends immediately, the vaquita has a very high chance of recovery.  If the practice continues, however, even moderately, the likelihood of a recovery plummets. 

According to the research team, the surviving vaquitas are actively reproducing and seem healthy.  But poachers’ gillnets will continue to pose an existential threat to the species until more measures are taken to protect the vaquita. 

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Only 10 vaquita porpoises survive, but species may not be doomed, scientists say

Photo, posted October 18, 2008, courtesy of Paul Olson / NOAA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Synthetic Palm Oil | Earth Wise

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Palm oil is the world’s cheapest and most widely used vegetable oil.  Producing it is a primary driver of deforestation and biodiversity loss in the tropics.  In Borneo, for example, oil palm cultivation has accounted for more than half of all deforestation over the past two decades.   More than one million square miles of biodiversity hotspots could be threatened by oil palm cultivation, which could potentially affect more than 40% of all threatened bird, mammal, and amphibian species.

Today, the world consumes over 70 million tons of palm oil each year, used in products ranging from toothpaste and oat milk to biodiesel and laundry detergent.

Given this situation, there are now multiple companies developing microbial oils that might offer an alternative to palm oil while avoiding its most destructive impacts.

A company called C16 Biosciences is working on the problem in Manhattan, backed by $20 million from a Bill Gates’ climate solutions investment fund.  A California-based startup called Kiverdi is working to manufacture yeast oil using carbon captured from the atmosphere. 

Xylome, a Wisconsin-based startup is working to produce a palm oil alternative that they call “Yoil”, produced by a proprietary strain of yeast.  The oil from the yeast strain is remarkably similar to palm oil. 

The challenge is to be able to produce microbial oils at large scale and at a competitive price.  Unless valuable co-products could be manufactured along with the oil, it may be difficult to compete with palm oil.  Without regulatory pressures and willingness of consumers to pay more, it may be difficult to replace palm oil in many of its applications.

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Can Synthetic Palm Oil Help Save the World’s Tropical Forests?

Photo, posted December 9, 2008, courtesy of Fitri Agung via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Melting Himalayan Glaciers | Earth Wise

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The great mountain ranges of central Asia, including the Himalayas, contain the third-largest deposit of ice and snow in the world, trailing only Antarctica and the Arctic.  The Himalayan range contains about 15,000 glaciers, and is part of a region widely referred to as the Third Pole due to its extraordinary reserves of freshwater.

But in recent years, scientists have observed an increase in the rate of Himalayan glacier loss.  According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Leeds in the UK, the accelerating melting of the Himalayan glaciers threatens the water supply of millions of people in Asia. 

In the study, researchers reconstructed the reach of the Himalayan glaciers during the Little Ice Age, which was the last major glacier expansion 400-700 years ago. They found that these glaciers began losing ice 10 times faster during the modern era.  In fact, the glaciers have shrunk from a peak of nearly 11,000 square miles to around 7,500 square miles today.   

This exceptional acceleration of melting of the Himalayan glaciers could have significant implications.  Hundreds of millions of people rely on Asia’s major river systems for food and energy, and depend on these glaciers to feed rivers during the dry seasons.  These rivers include the Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Indus.  The changing global climate could disastrously impact water resources and livelihoods of the Greater Himalayan region.

According to the research team, people living in these regions have already seen changes that are unlike anything witnessed for centuries.  This study is the latest to confirm that these changes are accelerating and pose a significant threat to entire nations and regions. 

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Himalayan glaciers melting at ‘exceptional rate’

Photo, posted March 13, 2018, courtesy of Sarunas Burdulis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Threat From Thwaites | Earth Wise

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The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is the widest glacier in the world. It is about 80 miles across and in places extends to a depth of about 2,600 to 3,900 feet.  The glacier is roughly the size of Florida, and it currently contributes 4% of annual global sea level rise as it continues to retreat from a warming ocean.

The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration is a team of nearly 100 scientists dedicated to studying the glacier.  According to the scientists, Thwaites has doubled its outflow speed within the last 30 years.  The glacier in its entirety holds enough water to raise global sea levels by over two feet, which would be catastrophic.

A third of the glacier flows more slowly than the rest because it is braced by a floating ice shelf that is held in place by an underwater mountain.  The concern is that the brace of ice slowing the glacier may not last for long.

Beneath the surface, warmer ocean water is attacking the glacier from all angles.  The water is melting the ice directly beneath the glacier causing it to lose its grip on the underwater mountain.  Massive fractures have formed and are growing.

Warm water is also a threat for what is called the grounding zone, which is the area where the glacier lifts off the seabed. There are many possible scenarios under which there could be a major ice loss from the glacier.  It is unclear how quickly it could occur.  It might take decades, or it could be centuries.  The threat is large enough and real enough that continued observation and research is essential.

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The Threat from Thwaites: The Retreat of Antarctica’s Riskiest Glacier

Photo, posted October 16, 2012, courtesy of J. Yungel / NASA Ice via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wild Pigs And The Environment | Earth Wise

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There are millions of wild pigs in the world with the largest numbers in the United States and Australia but significant numbers in South America, Europe, and China.  In the US, there are as many as 9 million feral swine living in 38 states.  A conservative estimate indicates that they cause about $1.5 billion in property and agricultural damage each year in this country.

Researchers in Australia have studied the climate damage wild pigs are causing across five continents.  According to the study, by uprooting carbon trapped in soil, wild pigs are releasing over 5 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, which is the equivalent of 1.1 million cars.

When soils are disturbed from humans plowing a field, or from wild animals uprooting, carbon is released into the atmosphere.  According to the researchers, wild pigs are just like tractors plowing through fields, turning over soil to find food.

The study used predictive population models coupled with advanced mapping techniques to pinpoint the damage wild pigs are causing.  According to the models, pigs are currently uprooting an area between 14,000 and 47,000 square miles, which is an enormous amount of land.  The effects are not just on the health of the soil and on carbon emissions.  This much damage also threatens biodiversity and food security.

Wild pigs are basically a human-caused problem, being either feral descendants of domestic swine, or hybrids of domestic swine and wild boars.  Wild pigs are prolific and their numbers have been expanding rapidly  Controlling their populations will require cooperation and collaboration across multiple jurisdictions.

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The climate impact of wild pigs greater than a million cars

Photo, posted July 1, 2017, courtesy of Shiva Shenoy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Coastlines and Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Climate change poses a fundamental threat to life on earth and has already left observable effects on the planet.  For example, glaciers have shrunk, oceans have warmed, heatwaves have become more intense, and plant and animal ranges have shifted. 

As a result of the changing climate, coastal communities around the world are confronting the increasing threats posed by a combination of extreme storms and the predicted acceleration of sea level rise. 

Scientists from the University of Plymouth in England have developed a simple algorithm-based model to predict how coastlines could be affected by climate change.  This model allows coastal communities to identify the actions they need to take in order to adapt to their changing environment.

The Forecasting Coastal Evolution (or ForCE)  model has the potential to be a game-changer because it allows adaptations in the shoreline to be predicted over timescales of anything from days to decades. As a result, the model is capable of predicting both the short-term impact of extreme storms as well as predicting the longer-term impact of rising seas.   

The ForCE model relies on past and present beach measurements and data showing the physical properties of the coast.  It also considers other key factors like tidal, surge, and global sea-level rise data to assess how beaches might be impacted by climate change.  Beach sediments form the frontline defense against coastal erosion and flooding, and are key in preventing damage to valuable coastal infrastructure.

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Coastal Evolution, the ForCE model predictions have shown to be more than 80% accurate in current tests in South West England.

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New model accurately predicts how coasts will be impacted by storms and sea-level rise

Photo, posted April 17, 2016, courtesy of Nicolas Henderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Importance Of Double-Cropping | Earth Wise

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In agriculture, double-cropping is the practice of growing two or more crops or commodities on the same piece of land in the same calendar year.  In Brazil, grain production has increased more than fourfold between 1980 and 2016.  The country now stands as the world’s largest exporter of soybeans and the second largest exporter of corn.  There were two primary drivers of this increase in food production: cropland expansion and double-cropping. 

Cropland expansion has long been recognized as a key driver behind the increase in Brazil’s agricultural output.  But cropland expansion is also a threat to biodiversity by driving habitat loss, deforestation, and an increase in carbon emissions. 

A new study recently published in the journal Nature Food quantified for the first time the impact that double-cropping had on helping Brazil achieve its tremendous growth in grain production.  The international research team examined data from three key agricultural regions in Brazil: the Centre-West, Southeast-South, and Matopiba region.  These three regions accounted for 79% of soybean production and 85% of  corn production in 2016. 

Soybean fields account for more than one third of Brazil’s cropland.  While the increase in soybean production was largely a result of cropland expansion, the increase in corn production was a result of double-cropping. 

Between 2003 and 2016, the study found that double-cropping in Brazil offset the equivalent of approximately 190 million acres of arable land for corn production. (This is more than twice the annual harvested area of corn in the United States).

Double-cropping represents a way to produce more food without clearing more land. 

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The impact of double-cropping

Photo, posted July 15, 2009, courtesy of Daniel Bauer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Assisted Colonization | Earth Wise

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As the pace of climate change continues to quicken, many species seem to be unable to keep up and could face extinction as a result.   There is a potential strategy for people to help species reach places with more suitable physical and biological conditions.  People could carry endangered animals to habitats cut off by mountains, rivers, or human-made barriers.  They could plant endangered trees higher up mountain slopes or to locations further north.  Such actions have been termed assisted colonization.

People have been moving species around the world throughout human history for various reasons either intentionally or inadvertently.  But as a conservation strategy, assisted colonization is quite controversial.

The argument is whether the risk of moving species to more favorable conditions outweighs the risk of inaction.  The salvation of one species could mean the destruction of another.   A species that seems perfectly innocuous when moved to one place can become a rampant invader in another.

An upcoming international conference on Biological Diversity to be held this fall in China may take up the issue of creating a set of guidelines on assisted colonization.   Such guidelines would help people assess which species to focus on; where, when, and how to move them; how to weigh the risks of action and inaction; and how to conduct such actions across international borders.  Assisted colonization may be useful in some instances and not in others.  There needs to be a way for the world to decide whether it is warranted or not.  With climate change posing a growing threat to many of the world’s species, this is an issue that should be addressed.

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Amid Climate Pressures, a Call for a Plan to Move Endangered Species

Photo, posted July 16, 2014, courtesy of Mark Spangler via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Monitoring Wildlife For Warning Signs of the Next Pandemic | Earth Wise

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According to the World Health Organization, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 likely originated in wild bats near Wuhan, China, and may have been passed to a second animal species before infecting people.  Since then, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, more than 13 million people around the world have been infected by COVID-19 and about 600,000 have died. 

But despite the ever-present threat of a new virus sparking the next pandemic, there is currently no global system to screen for viruses in wild animals that could eventually spill over to humans. 

In an article recently published in the journal Science, a group of scientists is calling for the creation of a decentralized global system of wildlife surveillance.  The establishment of this global system could help identify viruses in wild animals that have the potential to infect and sicken people before another global disease outbreak begins. 

According to the scientists, coronaviruses alone have caused outbreaks in humans three times in the last 20 years:  SARS (or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), and COVID-19. 

While it’s impossible to know today how often viruses jump from animals to humans, human activity is making such spillover events more and more likely.  For instance, many continue to develop wild animal habitat to build new homes or businesses.  Some catch wild animals and re-sell them either for consumption or as exotic pets.  Parts from these wild animals are often shipped around the world as trinkets or as ingredients for traditional medicines. 

A global system that could identify potentially harmful viruses before they jump to humans is technologically feasible, affordable, and clearly necessary. 

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Web Links

COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

Global wildlife surveillance could provide early warning for next pandemic

Photo, posted January 15, 2008, courtesy of Doug Beckers via Flickr.

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