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Electric cars: Boom or bust?

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Media coverage of electric cars in this country is pretty confusing.  Are electric cars taking over or has the EV bubble burst?

EVs currently represent about 8% of the US new car market.  But they continue to face some relatively unique headwinds in this country.  A very powerful and influential oil industry makes sure that anti-EV stories occupy center stage in the media.  Traditional car dealers don’t want to sell EVs because they don’t make much money from parts and service.  And EVs often find themselves tangled up in American politics.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world tells a very different story.  Globally, EVs constitute 20% of new car sales, but in some places, they are doing much better than that.

So far this year, almost 87% of new car sales in Norway are electric and in August, the figure was 94%.  Norway has some incentives in place for EV owners, but the fact that nearly all new cars on the road are electric is far more than the result of incentives.

One might argue that Norway, a country with only 5 million people, faces a much easier task of transitioning to EVs.   But how about China with its 1.4 billion people?  In July, plug-in vehicles in China were 51% of new auto sales.  And the numbers continue to rise.

There are plenty of articles out there explaining why electric cars just can’t meet people’s needs, have insurmountable problems, and how having too many of them would collapse electric grids and otherwise wreak havoc with society.  Apparently, the Norwegians and Chinese, among a growing number of other countries, haven’t gotten the memo.

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Elbil Thinks Electric Car Sales In Norway Could Hit 100% By Next Year

Photo, posted July 27, 2024, courtesy of Amaury Laporte via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

EV growth and oil demand

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There has been lots of talk recently about the transition to electric vehicles sputtering out.  Several automakers have delayed their EV programs citing reduced demand for the vehicles and lack of profitability.  In the bigger picture, the auto industry as a whole is in a rough patch as rising interest rates and other factors have reduced car buying.

Despite all this doom and gloom talk, sales of electric vehicles will hit an all-time high this year.  Adoption of EVs is accelerating more quickly than many people expected and government policies in China, the United States, and Europe have had a significant impact on vehicle sales.  In China, 37% of new cars sold last year were electric.  The country hit its 2025 target three years early and this year the figure could hit 45%.

But even as electric car sales rapidly increase, oil demand has continued to climb, reaching 100 million barrels a day, slightly more than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.  The International Energy Agency expects that oil demand will peak before the end of this decade, but oil consumption could remain strong for decades unless there is further policy action encouraging the transition away from it.

Some experts say that the IEA’s models don’t take into account how quickly the world is changing.  New emission rules are expected to speed the adoption of EVs and plug-in hybrids.  In addition, falling battery costs are making the economics of electric vehicles increasingly attractive.  If EV adoption accelerates more rapidly than these models predict, then oil consumption could drop much more quickly.

However, the oil industry is deeply embedded in modern life and is not likely to fade away without a fight.

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EV Sales Are Taking Off. Why Is Oil Demand Still Climbing?

Photo, posted September 9, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Law To Tackle Climate Change | Earth Wise

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The Inflation Reduction Act signed into law in mid-August is the most comprehensive U.S. legislation addressing climate change ever enacted.   It contains $369 billion in funding for clean energy and electric vehicle tax breaks, domestic manufacturing of batteries and solar panels, and pollution reduction.

The legislation for the most part makes use of carrots rather than sticks to coax American consumers and industry away from reliance on fossil fuels.  Rather than establishing more carbon taxes, mandates, and penalties, the law largely makes use of tax credits to provide incentives for the use of clean energy.

The law provides a large mix of tax breaks intended to bring down the costs of solar, wind, batteries, electric cars, heat pumps, and other clean technology.  For example, consumers will get a $7,500 credit for purchasing many new electric car models and about $4,000 for buying a used vehicle.

On the stick side of the ledger, oil and gas companies that emit methane above certain threshold levels will incur fees that escalate over time.  The law also increases the cost to the oil industry for extracting fossil fuels from public lands.

The act provides $60 billion for overall environmental justice priorities, including $15 billion targeted specifically for low-income and disadvantaged communities. There are many other provisions in the law addressing multiple climate-related issues.

According to three separate analyses by economic modelers, the investments from the Inflation Reduction Act are likely to cut pollution by about 40% below 2005 levels by the year 2030.

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The US finally has a law to tackle climate change

Photo, posted December 15, 2021, courtesy of Mario Duran-Ortiz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

California’s Silent Health Hazard | Earth Wise

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For people in the Los Angeles area, it is a familiar sight to see oil wells pumping away on hillsides, in residential neighborhoods, and other places.  In fancier parts of town, oil wells are hidden behind facades located next door to dry cleaners and lamp stores.

Every year, more than 140 million barrels of oil are extracted from the state of California, coming from a vast subterranean formation that spans nearly the entire state along the coast and spreading inland as well.  About 30% of the state’s oil comes from the Los Angeles area.

The oilfields are mostly old, and their wells played out.  As a result, high-tech drilling and a slew of toxic chemicals are needed to extract the last dregs of crude oil.

Unlike more rural oil-producing states, where oilfields might be uninhabited except for the people who work on them, drilling in California happens to a large degree in residential settings.  Over the years, it has become increasingly clear that certain chemical byproducts of oil extraction, among them benzene and hydrogen sulfate, can cause a variety of health problems.  For example, recent research has found connections between exposure to oil and gas well sites and spontaneous pre-term births, low-birthweight babies, and other adverse birth outcomes.

Statewide, little is being done to protect residents and schoolchildren from any of the suspected consequences of living near an oil or gas well.  Regulations are weak and spottily enforced because the oil industry still wields a lot of political power in the state.  Environmental groups and justice advocates are actively seeking to create new protections for California citizens, but it remains an uphill battle.

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The Oil Well Next Door: California’s Silent Health Hazard

Photo, posted July 11, 2017, courtesy of John Ciccarelli / Bureau of Land Management California via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Buses On The Rise

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Electric buses are replacing conventional diesel-fueled buses at an accelerating rate that is outpacing the adoption of battery-powered cars.  According to forecasts by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, by 2030 some 28% of car sales will be electric vehicles while 84% of new buses will be electric buses.  So far, some 12 years away, the actual adoption of electric buses is outpacing this optimistic projection.

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