ocean temperature

An active hurricane season

May 13, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st until November 30th. Forecasters at Colorado State University have issued forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity since 1984 based on the pioneering work of Professor William Gray. This year’s forecast, issued in April, predicts a higher-than-average number of Atlantic storms. In fact, it may be one of the most active seasons on record.

On average, there are 14 named storms each season. This year, the prediction is for 23 of them. On average, there are 7 hurricanes each season. This year, the prediction is for 11. The prediction is for 5 major hurricanes among them. These predictions are among the highest on record, although in 2020 they predicted 12 hurricanes. In fact, that year there were 14 that actually took place.

Among the factors at play are that the El Niño that was occurring last year has dissipated and there is a good chance of a La Niña forming, which suppresses upper-level winds thereby making conditions ideal for hurricane formation and intensification. But the overarching factor is global warming which is driving ocean temperature rise. The water in the Atlantic, especially in the eastern Atlantic where most hurricanes form, has seen record-breaking warmth. More warm water means more chances for storms.

Other research groups echo the predictions from Colorado State and, in some cases, see ever greater chances for an extremely active hurricane season. The University of Pennsylvania forecast calls for 33 named storms.

The overall forecast is for a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean.

**********

Web Links

Weather tracker: US experts predict one of most active hurricane seasons on record

Photo, posted September 5, 2017, courtesy of NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Rising fossil fuel emissions

April 22, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Almost every nation in the world has pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. There is expanding use of renewable energy sources and growing numbers of electric cars. But despite all this, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose again in 2023, reaching record levels.

The world’s population continues to grow and nations with large, rapidly growing populations are becoming increasingly industrialized and are embracing more and more of the trappings of modern life. As a result, the global burning of oil, coal, and natural gas is increasing.

Analysis of 2023 date shows that emissions from fossil fuels rose 1.1 percent compared to 2022 levels. The total fossil fuel emissions in 2023 was 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

Clearly, the world continues to head in the wrong direction in order to limit global warming. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 278 parts per million in 1750 – considered to be the start of the industrial era – to 420 parts per million in 2023.

The rise in heat-trapping carbon dioxide along with other greenhouse gases such as methane is the primary reason that the planet’s temperature is continuing to rise. The average global surface temperature in 2023 was 1.2 degrees Celsius – or 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit – higher than it was in the NASA baseline period of 1951-1980. Last year was the hottest year on record. Unfortunately, the rise in global ocean temperature was even larger, compounding the effects of global warming.

**********