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Megadroughts

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A new study by Swiss and Austrian scientists has found that persistent multi-year droughts have become increasingly common since 1980 and will continue to proliferate as the climate warms.

There are multiple examples in recent years in places ranging from California to Mongolia to Australia.  Fifteen years of persistent megadrought in Chile have nearly dried out the country’s water reserves and even affected Chile’s vital mining output.  These multi-year droughts have triggered acute water crises in vulnerable regions around the world.

Droughts tend to only be noticed when they damage agriculture or visibly affect forests.  An issue explored by the new study is whether megadroughts can be consistently identified and their impact on ecosystems understood.

The researchers analyzed global meteorological data and modeled droughts over a forty-year period beginning in 1980.  They found that multi-year droughts have become longer, more frequent, and more extreme, covering more land.  Every year since 1980, drought-stricken areas have spread by an additional fifty thousand square kilometers on average, an area the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined. 

The trend of intensifying megadroughts is clearly leading to drier and browner ecosystems.  Tropical forests can offset the effects of drought as long as they have enough water reserves.  However, the long-term effects on the planet and its ecosystems remain largely unknown.  Ultimately, long-term extreme water shortages will result in trees in tropical and boreal regions dying, causing long-term and possibly irreversible damage to these ecosystems.

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The Megadroughts Are upon Us

Photo, posted January 7, 2018, courtesy of Kathleen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Offshore wind and the wake effect

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Electricity demand in the U.S. continues to grow and, in the summer, homes and businesses crank up their air conditioning which drives demand even further.  Many East Coast cities are banking on offshore wind projects that are underway in the Atlantic Ocean to help meet that growing demand.  The first offshore turbines are now producing power off the coasts of Massachusetts and New York.

Electric power utilities need to know how much power they can get from offshore wind farms, and this is not that easy to predict.  Wind is variable, so there is some built-in uncertainty.  But there is also a phenomenon known as the wake effect to contend with.

When wind passes through a series of giant turbines, the ones in front extract some energy from the wind and, as a result, the wind slows down and becomes more turbulent behind the turbines.  So, the downstream turbines get slower wind and may produce less power.

A study by the University of Colorado has modeled this phenomenon for planned wind farms in the Atlantic Coast region and has found that power output could be reduced by over 30%.  Researchers are installing weather monitors and radar sensors in islands off the New England coast to better understand the behavior of the wind in the area and improve prediction models.

The New England grid covers Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Even with the wake effect, offshore wind is predicted to be able to provide 60% of the electricity needs of the grid, but it is important to be able to accurately predict what it can produce.

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How much energy can offshore wind farms in the US produce? New study sheds light

Photo, posted August 31, 2022, courtesy of Nina Ali via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The end of coal in New England

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The last two coal-fired power plants in New England are scheduled to close by 2025 and 2028.  The New Hampshire-based plants are operated by Granite Shore Power.  The Schiller Station plant began operations in 1949 and the Merrimack Station was built in the 1960s.

Granite Shore Power has come to an agreement with the Environmental Protection Agency as part of a settlement of lawsuits by the Conservation Law Foundation and the Sierra Club.  The two power plants were the subject of a five-year legal battle waged by clean energy advocates

Granite Shore Power intends to turn both of the sites into renewable energy parks.  The plants will be converted into solar farms and battery units that can be used to store electricity generated by offshore wind turbines along the Atlantic Coast.  Granite Shore Power bought the two power plants in 2018 with the intention of transitioning the coal generation systems into less polluting operations.

The battery storage system at the Schiller Station site in Portsmouth will be named the Jacona II in honor of a self-propelled floating power barge that brought power to parts of Maine and New Hampshire between 1919 and 1930.

Coal use has dropped dramatically in the United States in recent years as natural gas and renewable sources like wind and solar have become less expensive.  As of last year, coal only produced about 17% of American electricity and its use continues to decline. 

Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel.  In 2021, when it generated less than a quarter of the electricity produced in the US, it accounted for 59% of carbon emissions from electricity generation.

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The Last Coal-Fired Power Plants in New England Are to Close

Photo, posted October 14, 2015, courtesy of Eversource NH via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Offshore Wind In Maine | Earth Wise

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There are currently only two small offshore wind farms operating in the United States, but there are now several more under construction or in the permitting process.  Substantial wind farms are expected to come online over the next five years off the coasts of Virginia, New Jersey, Massachusetts. North Carolina, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New York.   There has been a recent auction for offshore wind sites off the California coast as well.

In April, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management issued its Gulf of Maine Call for Information and Nominations, inviting public comment and assessing the interest in areas offshore of Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts.  This is the first official step in the lengthy process that leads to offshore wind development in new areas.  Last year, the Department of the Interior defined an area of about 13.7 million acres in the Gulf of Maine that could end up providing energy leases for windfarm development.

The Biden administration has set a goal of deploying 30 gigawatts of offshore wind electricity generation by 2030, which is enough to power more than 10 million homes. It would also create thousands of jobs across manufacturing, shipbuilding, port operations, construction, and other industrial sectors.  Existing offshore wind projects have been structured to develop American-based supply chains for the offshore wind industry.

The European Union currently has over 15 gigawatts of installed offshore wind, has a target of 60 gigawatts by 2030, and 300 gigawatts by 2050.  The EU has five substantial sea basins which have tremendous potential for wind energy generation.  As a result, offshore wind is the centerpiece of the ambitious European Green Deal.

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U.S. moves to develop offshore wind in the Gulf of Maine

Photo, posted August 31, 2022, courtesy of Nina Ali via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Maple Syrup And Climate Change

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According to a study recently published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, scientists are predicting another casualty of climate change: the U.S. maple industry.  By the year 2100, the maple syrup season in the United States may be less productive and arrive one month earlier than it has between 1950 and 2017.

Maple syrup production is impacted by two climate-sensitive factors: sugar content and sap flow.  Sugar content is determined by the previous year’s carbohydrate stores.  Sap flow depends on the freeze/thaw cycle.  Sap begins to flow in sugar maples when winter nights dip below freezing and the days warm above freezing.

The researchers studied six sugar maple stands from Virginia to Quebec, Canada over a six year period.  They created a model that predicted the timing of optimal sap flow based on historical temperature data on freeze/thaw days, actual sap collection from their field work, and monthly climate. 

According to modeling projections, the maple syrup season is expected to be, on average, one month earlier by the end of the century.  States like Indiana and Virginia will barely produce any sap.  New Hampshire and Vermont are likely to be least affected, but are still expected to experience a decrease in production.  In fact, most areas of maple production in the United States are projected to see decreases in production by the year 2100, while areas in northern Ontario and Quebec should see moderate to large increases in production. 

Currently, Canada is responsible for approximately 80% of global maple syrup production while the U.S. produces 20%.  The shifting climate for optimal maple production will leave many scrambling to find the sweet spot. 

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Climate change study finds that maple syrup season may come earlier

Photo, posted March 24, 2019, courtesy of Paul VanDerWerf via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Lessons From The Forest

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For more than half a century, scientists have converged on Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire’s White Mountains to explore how forest ecosystems work.  The site was established by the U.S. Forest Service to study the relationship between forests and New England’s water supply. In the 1960s, inquiry was expanded to include ecology, biogeochemistry, and studies of birds and other animals.

[Read more…] about Lessons From The Forest

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