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When is a heat wave just a heat wave?

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There are lots of extreme weather events of all kinds these days.  But there have always been extreme weather events.  Climate change results in more extreme weather but not all extreme weather should be attributed to climate change.  So, how do we know if an extreme weather event is a result of the changing climate?  Communities that are affected by extreme weather events need to know whether they are likely to see more such events in the future, or if they are anomalies like a “500-year storm” or such.

Researchers at North Carolina State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Princeton University developed a routine process for evaluating extreme weather events.

The test case was an extreme heat wave that affected Texas and Louisiana in 2023.  This notable heat wave lasted almost the entire summer. The scientists used a two-step process to determine whether the heat wave was an anomaly or part of a new pattern.  They took historical data from the past 100 years to see how unusual 2023 was.  Then they compared that data with both past and present predictive computer models.  Comparing the predictive models can indicate whether climate change was a factor in the event.

In this case, a similar drought would not have been as hot 50 years earlier, which indicates that the heat wave is related to climate change and that even more intense heat waves are likely to occur in the future.

This sort of information is important for communities to prepare for future events.

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When is a Heat Wave Just a Heat Wave, and When is it Climate Change?

Photo, posted July 22, 2006, courtesy of Saturnism via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Tourism and climate action

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Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is one of the foremost natural wonders of the world and is a major tourist attraction.  It is well-known that the changing climate is threatening the survival of the Great Barrier Reef as well as other coral reefs around the world.  A recent study by researchers at the University of Queensland looked at the reactions of tourists to being informed about the impact of the changing climate on the reef.

The Great Barrier Reef faces many challenges.  Unprecedented marine heatwaves have triggered repeated mass coral bleaching events over the past decade. These climate driven disturbances are compounding the cumulative effects of chronic problems such as unsustainable fishing, pollution, and sedimentation as well as acute disturbances such as tropical cyclones and outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish.

Operators of five reef tourism boats assisted in the study.  As part of their boat trips, tourists were given climate information via a marine biology presentation and there were also posters around the vessel as well as regular mentions of climate change impacts and actions throughout the trip.

The tourism industry often has the idea that providing information on climate change might be detrimental to people’s enjoyment – basically a buzzkill.  But based on surveys conducted at the end of the trips, the researchers found that informing tourists about climate impact didn’t negatively affect their experience.  In fact, most tourists actually wanted more information, particularly about how they can take meaningful actions of their own.

The researchers believe that their study provides further opportunity to improve climate communication and effectively promote climate change engagement among tourists.

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Reef tourism encourages climate action

Photo, posted October 7, 2008, courtesy of eGuide Travel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Research on solar geoengineering

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Ideas for potential technologies that could artificially cool the planet as a countermeasure against global warming have been considered radical and dangerous for a long time.  But as climate change continues to become increasingly apparent, ideas like solar geoengineering are gaining increasing attention.

Most environmental organizations are at best skeptical about such ideas and oppose them.  Their opposition is in part based on the assertion that there are no quick fixes for climate change and that not addressing its root causes is a dangerous path to take.  But an even greater concern is that intentionally manipulating global temperatures is likely to have a host of unintended consequences that could prove disastrous.

One of the world’s largest environmental organizations, the Environmental Defense Fund, has decided to fund research into solar geoengineering.  The EDF cautions that is in not in favor of deploying such technology.  Its position is that the discussion about ways to cool the planet is not going away and cannot be ignored.  The lack of proper research can promote unfounded optimism about such technology  So, they are going to fund research that can provide information based on solid, well-formulated science.

A major focus will be what other effects technologies like cloud brightening and injecting aerosols into the atmosphere might have apart from providing cooling. 

The EDF’s own position is that deliberate climate interventions present serious ecological, moral, and geopolitical concerns.  However, they believe that policymakers need to be informed by the most accurate information possible.

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Environmental Group to Study Effects of Artificially Cooling Earth

Photo, posted February 3, 2008, courtesy of Camilla Cannarsa via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Palm oil and water quality

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Palm oil is the world’s cheapest and most widely used vegetable oil.  In fact, more than 86 million tons of palm oil was consumed last year alone.  Even though few of us cook with it, palm oil can be found in approximately half of all packaged grocery items – everything from ice creams and pizzas to detergents and cosmetics. 

This massive global demand for palm oil is driving tropical deforestation around the world.  While many studies have shown how converting rainforests to oil palm plantations causes biodiversity loss, researchers from UMass Amherst are the first to demonstrate how these plantations also cause wide-ranging disturbances to nearby watersheds.

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, the research team focused on the Kais River watershed of West Papua, a province in the far east of Indonesia.  Approximately 25% of the watershed has been turned into oil palm plantations. The watershed is also one of the oldest continually inhabited homes for different groups of Indigenous Papuans.

The researchers found that the conversion of tropical rainforest to oil palm plantation has increased precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture. Water quality in the watershed has also gotten dramatically worse: sedimentation has increased by 16.9%, nitrogen by 78.1%, and phosphorus by 144%.

The research team hopes regulators will work to limit the use of pesticides, conduct continuous water quality monitoring, and ensure that downstream communities have access to water quality information. 

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Oil Palm Plantations Are Driving Massive Downstream Impact to Watershed

Photo, posted December 13, 2008, courtesy of Fitri Agung via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate change and Antarctic meteorites

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Researchers from Switzerland and Belgium have investigated the effects of the warming climate on access to meteorites in Antarctica.  Meteorites are of great scientific interest because they provide unique information about the makeup of our solar system.  Of all the meteorites that people have found, 62.6% of them were found in Antarctica.

Why is this?  It is not because more meteorites land in Antarctica.  Statistically, they can land anywhere on earth.  Most end up in the ocean since the world’s oceans cover 70% of the planet. 

Meteorites in Antarctica are more visible because environmental conditions are favorable for their preservation and their visibility.  The arid and cold Antarctic environment helps to preserve meteorites and the lack of rocks and contrast with ice makes spotting meteorites much easier.  The flow of ice sheets tends to concentrate meteorites in so-called meteorite stranding zones where the dark colored space rocks can be easily detected.

There are an estimated 300,000 to 800,000 meteorites in Antarctica.  When meteorites warm up, they can transfer heat to the ice, which locally melts.  Eventually, the meteorites sink beneath the surface.  A recent study using satellite imagery, climate model projections, and AI predicts that for every tenth of a degree of increase in global air temperature, an average of 9,000 meteorites in Antarctica will disappear from the surface and will no longer be able to be found. 

The study estimates that a quarter of Antarctic meteorites will be lost to glacial melt by 2050.  If warming continues to accelerate, closer to three-quarters of the meteorites on the continent will be lost. 

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Climate change threatens Antarctic meteorites

Photo, posted April 21, 2005, courtesy of Kevin Walsh via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

More Offshore Wind Proposed For New Jersey | Earth Wise

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There have been three offshore wind projects previously approved by utility regulators in New Jersey.  New Jersey is vying to become an East Coast leader in the fast-growing offshore wind industry and now developers have proposed four new projects off the New Jersey Shore.

Two of the projects would be located far out to sea where they would not be visible at all from the shore.  One of them, called Community Offshore Wind, would be built 37 miles offshore from Long Beach Island.  It aims to generate enough electricity to power 500,000 homes.

A second project, called Leading Light Wind, would be located 40 miles off Long Beach Island and would consist of up to 100 turbines that would generate enough electricity to power 1 million homes.

The two companies that are building the already-approved Atlantic Shores Wind Farm have submitted a bid for a new project located 10 to 20 miles offshore.  In addition, a fourth application to the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities has also been submitted, but there is yet no public information about it.

Existing offshore projects have drawn intense opposition from homeowners in part because they are close enough to the Atlantic City and Ocean City shorelines to be seen by beachgoers, albeit as tiny objects on the horizon.  The new proposed projects located far offshore would not have this problem.

The new projects can take advantage of existing federal tax credits, but the bidders say they will not seek the tax breaks from New Jersey that the earlier project received as they have also been the subject of legal challenges by opponents of offshore wind.

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4 new offshore wind power projects proposed for New Jersey Shore; 2 would be far out to sea

Photo, posted March 25, 2016, courtesy of TEIA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Can All Plant Species Survive? | Earth Wise 

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Many animal populations around the world are struggling and people are mostly to blame.  Species are declining because of all sorts of things including changes in land and sea use, pollution, invasive species, and climate change.

Like many animal species, plants are also struggling to adapt to a human-dominated world.  Plants provide the planet with food, oxygen, and energy, and are used to produce fibers, building materials, and medicines.  Even though plants are easier and cheaper to protect, they are often overlooked in conservation efforts. 

According to a paper recently published in the journal Trends in Plant Science, preventing all future land plant extinctions across the globe is possible with the right approaches.  The author of the paper, Richard Corlett of the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden in China, writes that “if zero extinction is potentially achievable for plants, a less ambitious target would be inexcusable.” 

According to the paper, one big barrier in plant conservation is the lack of trained specialists, especially in tropical areas where there is a backlog of unidentified species.  It’s likely that many “dark extinctions,” which is when species slip away without us knowing they existed, have already occurred.

Another roadblock in preventing plant extinctions is information access, which can be solved by building an online “metaherbarium.”  This collaborative database would link digitized records from herbarium specimens with photographs, status assessments, and recovery plans.

Finally, the creation of “microreserves” – which are tiny pieces of protected land designed to get around space constraints – would further contribute to effective conservation of targeted plant species. 

Zero plant extinctions should be the goal.   

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‘Zero plant extinction’ is possible, says plant ecologist

Photo, posted May 16, 2008, courtesy of Andrew Otto via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Here Come The Lanternflies | Earth Wise

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The spotted lanternfly is an invasive pest from Asia that primarily feeds on tree of heaven, which is itself an invasive species that has become widespread.  The real problem is that the lanternfly can also feed on some 70 other plants such as grapevines, maples, fruit trees, and more.

The lanternfly was first discovered in the US in Pennsylvania in 2014 and has since spread to 14 states including New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.  (It was first spotted in New York in Staten Island in 2020 and has continued to spread).

The insect poses a significant threat to New York’s agricultural and forest health. Both the adults and nymphs feed on the sap of plants which stresses them making them vulnerable to diseases and other insect attacks.  They also secrete a sticky substance that attracts molds and interferes with photosynthesis.

Lanternflies are not strong fliers.  They mostly spread through human activity by laying their eggs on vehicles, firewood, outdoor furniture, and other objects that people transport.

The bout of unusually warm weather that the Northeast experienced in early spring is likely to have jumpstarted the spotted lanternfly timeline and hatching could be bumped up to as early as May.

Agriculture officials are asking for people to look for spotted lanternfly egg masses and scrape them off with implements with a sharp edge.  Adult insects should be reported to local authorities and should be killed if at all possible.  There is lots of information online about how to recognize the egg masses and the insects.  Spotted lanternflies are not a direct threat to humans, but they have the potential to cause great harm to vineyards, orchards, and forests.

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Spotted Lanternfly

Photo, posted September 12, 2018, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Plants Make Sounds | Earth Wise

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Some people talk to their plants.  It is highly unlikely that the plants are listening, but recent research has found that plants are doing quite a bit of talking of their own.

It turns out that plant emit a variety of click-like sounds, especially when they are stressed in some way, such as being dehydrated or injured.  The sounds are actually fairly loud – comparable to the volume of human speech – but occur at frequencies well above the range of human hearing.

The study at Tel Aviv University in Israel monitored plants in a greenhouse that were subjected to various stresses over time.  Unstressed plants emitted less than one sound per hour, on average, while stressed plants emitted dozens of sounds every hour.

Recordings of the plant sounds were analyzed by specially developed artificial intelligence algorithms.  The algorithms learned how to distinguish between different plants and different types of sounds.  Eventually, they could identify the plant and determine the type and level of stress from the recordings.  They could even do this in a greenhouse with a great deal of background noise.

The study resolved a very old scientific controversy about whether plants emit sounds.  Not only do they, but the sounds contain useful information.  We don’t yet know what the mechanism is for plant sounds.  It is likely that in nature, the sounds are detected by various animals and perhaps even plants that can detect the high frequencies.  And perhaps they react to them as part of seeking food, shelter, or other services that plants provide.  Given the right tools, we humans may also be able to make use of the sounds being made by plants.

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Plants Emit Sounds – Especially When Stressed

Photo, posted February 20, 2009, courtesy of ProBuild Garden Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Emissions From Global Computing

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A recent study from Lancaster University in the UK has concluded that global computing is likely to be responsible for a greater share of greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought and that share is continuing to grow.

Previous calculations of the contributions from information and communications technology (or ICT) estimated that globally it accounts for 1.8 to 2.8% of total emissions.  According to the new study, these estimates likely fall short of the sector’s real climate impact because they only show a partial picture.

Prior estimates do not account for the full lifecycle and supply chain of ICT products and infrastructure.  They do not include the energy expended in manufacturing the products and equipment, the carbon cost associated with all the components in the products, and the operational carbon footprint of the companies producing those components. 

The study argues that the true contribution of ICT to global greenhouse gas emissions could be between 2.1 and 3.9%, which is more than the aviation industry.  Furthermore, the study warns that new trends in computing and ICT such as the use of big data and artificial intelligence, the so-called Internet of Things, and the use of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, risk driving further substantial growth in ICT’s greenhouse gas footprint.

It has been a commonly held believe that ICT and computing technologies lead to greater efficiencies across many other sectors, leading to savings in net greenhouse gas emissions.  According to the new study, the historical evidence indicates the opposite.  ICT has driven wide-ranging efficiency and productivity improvements, but the net result in emissions has been that they have been growing steadily.

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Emissions from computing and ICT could be worse than previously thought

Photo, posted March 13, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

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Russian Forests And Climate Mitigation | Earth Wise

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Russia is the largest country in area in the world, almost equal in size to the sum of the next two largest – Canada and the U.S.   Russia is also the world’s largest forest country, containing more than one-fifth of the world’s forests.  As a result, the country’s forests and forestry activities have enormous potential for impacting climate mitigation.

Since the dissolution of the USSR, there has been a decline in the availability of information on the state of Russia’s forests.  The Soviet Forest Inventory and Planning System compiled information until 1988.  Since then, the Russian National Forest Inventory has been the source of forest information on the national scale, and it hadn’t produced a comprehensive inventory until 2020.

The new data indicates that Russian forests have in fact accumulated a large amount of additional biomass over the intervening years.  Using the last Soviet Union report as a reference point, the new results show that the ongoing stock accumulation rate in Russian forests over the 26-year period is of the same magnitude as the net forest stock losses in tropical countries.

Thus, it is clear that Russian forests have great potential in terms of global climate mitigation as well as potential co-benefits relating to the green economy and sustainable development.   It is important to note that as the impact of climate change increases, disturbances to the Russian forests could have severe adverse effects on global climate mitigation efforts.

While much of the world’s attention is rightfully upon tropical rainforests in the Amazon and elsewhere, it is important to not ignore the largest country in the world hosting the largest land biome on the planet where even small percentage changes in the amount of forest biomass could have a major global impact.

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Russian forests are crucial to global climate mitigation

Photo, posted June 6, 2015, courtesy of Raita Futo via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Science And False Beliefs

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There are sizeable numbers of people who hold to beliefs that run counter to overwhelming contrary evidence. Flat Earthers and Holocaust deniers are well-known examples and, more recently, people – some of them in high places – who reject the evidence for climate change.

New research published in the journal Open Mind by developmental psychologists at UC Berkeley suggest that feedback, rather than hard evidence, boosts people’s sense of certainty when learning new things or trying to tell right from wrong.  People’s beliefs are more likely to be reinforced by the positive or negative reactions they are exposed to than by logic, reasoning, and scientific data.

People’s learning habits can limit one’s intellectual horizons.  According to the study, if you think you know a lot about something, even though you don’t, you’re less likely to be curious enough to explore the topic further and will fail to learn how little you know.

This phenomenon plays out in social media and cable-news echo chambers and explains how some people are easily duped by charlatans.  Receiving positive feedback for what they are saying can make people believe they know more than they actually do.  This confidence makes them less likely to seek out and learn more information about the subject, as well as take into account contradicting opinions or facts.

Another factor is that what influences people’s certainty is that their confidence tends to depend on what they heard most recently rather than on long-term cumulative data.  A few pieces of recent information tend to get much more attention than an extensive body of data.  If a crazy theory is able to make a correct prediction a few times, people tend to get fixed in their belief in that theory and be less open to other information.

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Here’s Why People Advocate False Beliefs, Conspiracy Theories Despite Evidence

Photo, posted February 2, 2007, courtesy of Tim J. Keegan via Flickr. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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