impossible

Almost all the countries around the world have pledged to take action to reduce planet-warming emissions by expanding the use of renewable energy sources and phasing out fossil fuels. But very few countries seem to be taking the fossil fuel phase-out seriously.

Almost all the top 20 fossil-fuel producing countries plan to produce more oil, gas, and coal in 2030 than they do today. Countries are doubling down on fossil fuel production, which will make it virtually impossible to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

Despite having an administration that takes climate issues very seriously, the United States is now the world’s biggest crude oil producer and is ramping up exports of natural gas. Brazil, under its environmental champion President da Silva, plans to increase oil production by 63% and more than double its gas output over the next decade. India, which has promised to expand renewable energy production, will more than double its production of coal by 2030. Canada, which has a net-zero commitment enacted as law, will boost its oil output by 25% in the next 12 years. Meanwhile, countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia aren’t even pretending to make the transition away from fossil fuels.

Governments and citizens around the world may be serious about the climate crisis and are taking various actions. But the world cannot address climate change without tackling its root cause. The overwhelming force of greed and the power wielded by the fossil fuel industry has created a dynamic that is making real progress nearly impossible as fossil fuels continue to power the world.

**********

Web Links

Coming Soon: More Oil, Gas and Coal

Photo, posted June 22, 2020, courtesy of John Morton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The late-June heatwave in the Pacific Northwest shattered temperature records in dozens of locations. Cities like Portland and Seattle saw historic high temperatures and one town in British Columbia saw temperatures hotter than ever recorded in Las Vegas.

An international team of weather and climate experts analyzed this extreme weather event and came to a preliminary conclusion that it was a 1-in-1000-year event in today’s climate. “Today’s climate” means the already warmer conditions that the world is experiencing as a result of the changing climate.

If that analysis is accurate, then such an extreme temperature event would have been at least 150 times rarer in the era before global warming. In other words, they concluded that it would have been a 1-in-150,000-year event, which means that it would have been virtually impossible in pre-industrial times.

Given that they estimated that the extreme temperatures were a 1-in-1000-year event at this point, it would follow that such events are not about to become commonplace any time soon. On the face of it, that is somewhat comforting to hear.

However, all of this assumes that global warming will not radically change the statistical distribution of global temperatures. If that assumption fails to hold, then all bets are off. Perhaps temperatures like those experienced in the Pacific Northwest might be a 1-in-50-year event, for example, but we just don’t realize it yet. Follow-up studies will be looking for evidence of significant changes in the distribution of weather events. For now, a 1-in-1000-year event means there is only a 0.1% chance of occurring in a given year. That’s good news for the residents of that region.

**********

Web Links

Preliminary analysis concludes Pacific Northwest heat wave was a 1,000-year event…hopefully

Photo, posted June 4, 2016, courtesy of Jody Claborn via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Are we really serious about eliminating fossil fuels?

Almost all the countries around the world have pledged to take action to reduce planet-warming emissions by expanding the use of renewable energy sources and phasing out fossil fuels. But very few countries seem to be taking the fossil fuel phase-out seriously.

Web Links

The Pacific Northwest Heatwave | Earth Wise

The late-June heatwave in the Pacific Northwest shattered temperature records in dozens of locations. Cities like Portland and Seattle saw historic high temperatures and one town in British Columbia saw temperatures hotter than ever recorded in Las Vegas.

Web Links