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EV growth and oil demand

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There has been lots of talk recently about the transition to electric vehicles sputtering out.  Several automakers have delayed their EV programs citing reduced demand for the vehicles and lack of profitability.  In the bigger picture, the auto industry as a whole is in a rough patch as rising interest rates and other factors have reduced car buying.

Despite all this doom and gloom talk, sales of electric vehicles will hit an all-time high this year.  Adoption of EVs is accelerating more quickly than many people expected and government policies in China, the United States, and Europe have had a significant impact on vehicle sales.  In China, 37% of new cars sold last year were electric.  The country hit its 2025 target three years early and this year the figure could hit 45%.

But even as electric car sales rapidly increase, oil demand has continued to climb, reaching 100 million barrels a day, slightly more than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.  The International Energy Agency expects that oil demand will peak before the end of this decade, but oil consumption could remain strong for decades unless there is further policy action encouraging the transition away from it.

Some experts say that the IEA’s models don’t take into account how quickly the world is changing.  New emission rules are expected to speed the adoption of EVs and plug-in hybrids.  In addition, falling battery costs are making the economics of electric vehicles increasingly attractive.  If EV adoption accelerates more rapidly than these models predict, then oil consumption could drop much more quickly.

However, the oil industry is deeply embedded in modern life and is not likely to fade away without a fight.

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EV Sales Are Taking Off. Why Is Oil Demand Still Climbing?

Photo, posted September 9, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Who’s driving electric?

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Electric cars are growing in popularity around the world and are expected to represent 20% of new car sales this year.  In some places, they have a much bigger share:  38% in China and a whopping 82% in Norway.  Here in the U.S., things are more complicated.

Last year, EVs represented 8.5% of U.S. new car sales while hybrids accounted for an additional 10%.  But enthusiasm for plug-in vehicles was by no means universal or consistent across the country or across various segments of the population.

Overall, the West Coast, and especially California, dominated the electric vehicle market.  Electric vehicles accounted for more than 30% of new car sales in the San Francisco Bay Area.  In Los Angeles, the number was close to 25%.

A number of metro areas elsewhere also had strong EV sales, including Denver, Las Vegas, Washington DC, Austin, and Phoenix.  New York City had almost 10% EV registrations. 

Americans buying electric cars so far tend to be richer, younger, and more likely to live in urban areas than the average person and are often motivated by environmental concerns.  Meanwhile, about half of American adults say they are not likely to consider purchasing an EV as their next car and that figure rises to 70% for Republicans.

Lack of interest in EVs is often based on concerns about the availability of sufficient charging options or high EV prices, although those are dropping.  There is also concern about EV efficiency in colder climates, although the Norwegians clearly don’t find it to be a problem.

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Electric Vehicles

Photo, posted October 18, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Busting Electric Vehicle Myths | Earth Wise

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From the early days of hybrid vehicles right on through the current booming market for electric cars, there has been the contention by some people that these cars are responsible for comparable or even greater amounts of greenhouse gas emissions over their product lifetimes.  The arguments generally centered around the carbon costs of creating batteries for the cars as well as the emissions associated with generating the electricity used to charge them.

A new study published by the International Council for Clean Transportation reports a life cycle assessment (or LCA) that considers every source of carbon generated from the cradle to the grave of the vehicle.

Included in the assessment are the mining costs of the lithium to make batteries, the transportation of batteries across the world by container ship, the end-of-life burden, the mix of energy generation in various places around the world, and so on.

The results of the analysis are that even in India and China, which are the biggest burners of coal and oil on earth, it still results in lower emissions to drive an EV instead of an internal combustion vehicle.

Lifetime emissions of today’s average medium-size EVs are lower than comparable gasoline cars by 66-69% in Europe, 60-68% in the US, 37-45% in China, and 19-34% in India.  As electricity generation continues to further decarbonize, all these numbers will only get better.  While it is somewhat more carbon-intensive to manufacture an EV, it doesn’t take very long in the car’s life to come out ahead owning one.

Early skeptics of EVs and hybrids had more legitimate concerns a decade or so ago, but the advantages of these vehicles are now unambiguous.

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One of the Biggest Myths About EVs is Busted in New Study

Photo, posted December 30, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Advantages Of Plug-In Hybrids

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Plug-in hybrid vehicles are ones that can run both on electricity provided by a power outlet as well as on gasoline.  There are many of them on the market these days built by quite a few car makers.  But these vehicles have an undeserved reputation as being the fig leaf of electric mobility.  Many environmental organizations and political decision-makers don’t consider them to be “real electric cars.”

[Read more…] about Advantages Of Plug-In Hybrids

Are Electric Cars Worth The Price?

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Pretty much every discussion of electric cars, plug-in hybrids and ordinary hybrids starts and ends up with the question of whether they are worth the money.  If the reason for buying such a vehicle is strictly economic, then this is the right question to ask.  But the naysayers who say such a purchase is foolish may be barking up the wrong tree.

[Read more…] about Are Electric Cars Worth The Price?

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