extremes

The world is warming and it’s happening faster

July 29, 2025 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

This summer has already seen unprecedented heat in many places. It started with a record-breaking heat dome in June in the United States. Alaska had its first-ever heat advisory that month. Europe has seen triple-digit temperatures in cities like Paris, Madrid, and Rome and even in places like Austria, Sarjevo, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Serbia. On June 28th, a temperature of 96.8 degrees was measured in Biasca, Switzerland.

According to the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world is getting hotter, faster. Human-caused global warming is now increasing by 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade. That rate was recorded at 0.2 degrees in the 1970s and has been increasing ever since.

Climate scientists have long predicted that the rate of warming in the atmosphere would speed up, which has been evident from measurements for quite a while. But now, these trends that have mostly been seen in charts and graphs are playing a growing role in people’s lives.

Each increase in the global mean temperature brings about a relatively larger increase in atmospheric extremes that include powerful downpours and severe droughts and wildfires. According to climate models, extreme rainfall intensifies by 7% with each degree Celsius of atmospheric warming. But recent data indicates that such record-shattering events are increasing at double that rate.

The current US administration may not accept the reality of the changing climate, but the planet really doesn’t care what it believes.

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The World Is Warming Up. And It’s Happening Faster.

Photo, posted August 28, 2013, courtesy of Tadas Balčiūnas via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate risks for apple-growing areas

January 31, 2025 By EarthWise 2 Comments

The changing climate is creating challenges for some of the most productive apple growing regions in America. A study by Washington State University analyzed over 40 years of climate conditions that impact the growth cycle of apple trees.

Many growing areas face increased climate risk, but the top three apple-producing counties are among the most impacted. Yakima County in Washington is the country’s largest apple producer with more than 48,000 acres of apple orchards. Kent County in Michigan and Wayne County in New York (located east of Rochester) are the next two largest.

The study looked at six metrics that affect apple production. Two of these metrics relate to extremes: extreme heat days (with temperatures above 93 degrees) that can cause multiple problems and warm nights (with minimum temperatures above 59 degrees) that adversely affect coloration.

Other metrics included the number of cold days, the last day of spring frost, and the number of growing degree days, which are the number of days above a certain temperature that are conducive for apples to grow.

Changes to these metrics can impact apple production, change the time when apple flowers bloom, increase risk of sunburn on apples, and affect apple appearance and quality. In many places, nearly all of these metrics are changing in an undesirable direction.

Apples are the most consumed fruit in the United States. 27,000 American producers supply an industry with a downstream value of $23 billion. Apples are a big deal.

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Prime apple-growing areas in US face increasing climate risks

Photo, posted August 8, 2020, courtesy of Sue Thompson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

National drought

December 5, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Climate change brings with it many kinds of extreme weather. It isn’t just higher temperatures. It is changing patterns of weather and weather events that are rare or even unprecedented.

Late October saw drought conditions throughout almost the entire United States. Only Alaska and Kentucky did not have at least moderate drought conditions.

The previous four months were consistently warmer than normal over a large area of the country. When that period started, about a quarter of the country was at least somewhat dry, but in late October, 87% of the country was dry.

Droughts in many parts of the U.S. and in places around the world are becoming more frequent, longer in duration, and more severe.

Residents of New York City were urged to start conserving water. This October was the driest October since record keeping began in 1869. The upstate reservoirs that supply New York’s water were below two-thirds full. They are normally more than three-quarters full in the fall.

Even the Southeast, which received huge amounts of rain from Hurricane Helene, is experiencing drought. Not much rain had fallen since that storm and warmer temperatures mean more evaporation and drier soils.

Drought is not just a lack of precipitation. Drought conditions are driven by abnormally high temperatures that remove moisture from the atmosphere and the ground.

Whether widespread drought conditions will persist is unknown. If a predicted La Niña condition develops in the tropical Pacific, drought conditions in the southern half of the country could get worse, but the Northeast could see lots of rain and snow.

To have nearly the entire country experiencing drought conditions is pretty rare. But unusual weather is becoming the new normal.

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In a Record, All but Two U.S. States Are in Drought

Photo, posted May 21, 2024, courtesy of Adam Bartlett via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Weather extremes for most people

October 7, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway along with researchers at the University of Reading in the UK have analyzed how global warming can combine with normal variations in the weather to produce decades-long periods of very rapid changes involving both extreme temperatures and extreme amounts of rainfall.

Many parts of the world have already been experiencing record temperatures and extreme rainfall events. Previously, most analyses of the changing climate have focused on the global mean and not on the impact of extreme weather on specific countries.

The study made use of large climate model simulations to show that if global emissions continue on the path they have been on, large parts of the tropics and subtropics – which are home to 70% of the world’s population – are expected to experience strong rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years. But even if there is strong emissions mitigation – meaning that emissions are reduced enough to reach the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement – the expectation is that 20% of the world’s population will face extreme weather risks.

These extreme events currently account for a disproportionate share of the realized impacts of climate change. Heatwaves cause heat stress and excess mortality of both people and livestock. Extreme precipitation leads to flooding, damage to settlements, infrastructure, crops, and ecosystems, as well as to reduced water quality.

Society will be increasingly vulnerable to these extreme events, especially when multiple hazards occur at the same time.

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Extreme weather to strengthen rapidly over next two decades

Photo, posted May 20, 2024, courtesy of Dale Cruse via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Species and climate change

July 4, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Temperature extremes on Earth currently range from a low of -129°F to a high of 134°F. But these climatic limits have changed throughout history. In fact, during the last interglacial period 130,000 years ago, temperatures were warmer, resembling what we are projected to experience at the end of this century.

Species that evolved during such periods may possess pre-adaptations that could help them tolerate upcoming changes to the climate. This factor is often overlooked by traditional statistical models predicting species’ responses to climate change.

But a new model, developed by researchers from Ifremer in France and Lausanne University in Switzerland, has taken this oversight into account, and reassessed the proportion of terrestrial and marine species threatened with extinction by climate change.

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, the research team applied its model to nearly 25,000 terrestrial and marine species from around the world. The researchers discovered that 49% of these species live in climate niches near the current climatic limits, and 86% could potentially extend beyond these limits.

The most surprising result concerns tropical regions. While forecasts from traditional models estimate that the diversity of terrestrial species in tropical areas could decrease by 54% between now and 2041-2060, the new model predicts a more moderate decline of 39%.

The findings confirm the importance of taking urgent measures to mitigate climate change and its impact on biodiversity.

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Some species may better tolerate climate change than expected

Photo, posted October 23, 2015, courtesy of Anita Ritenour via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Tropical Species Moving North | Earth Wise

April 19, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Climate change is leading to warmer winter weather throughout the southern U.S., providing opportunities for many tropical plants and animals to move north. A new study by scientists at UC Berkeley looked at the changing distribution of tropical species driven by the warming climate.

Some species are appreciated in their new locations, such as sea turtles and the Florida manatee, which are gradually moving northward along the Atlantic Coast. Others, like the invasive Burmese python are not so welcome. That goes double for many insects, such as the mosquitoes that carry diseases like the West Nile virus, Zika, dengue, and yellow fever, as well as beetles that destroy native trees.

The transition zone, northward of which experiences freezes every winter, has always been a barrier to species native to more temperate places. For most organisms in such places, if they freeze, they die. Cold snaps like the recent one in Texas usually don’t happen for decades and are now likely to be less and less frequent. In the meantime, tropical species can get more and more of a foothold and maybe even develop populations that can tolerate more cold extremes in the future.

The warming climate is leading many plant species to expand their ranges, in some cases pushing out native species. The general story is that the species that do really well are the more generalist species whose host plants or food sources are quite varied or widely distributed and can tolerate a wide range of conditions. By definition, they tend to be the pest species.

We need to prepare for widespread shifts in the distribution of biodiversity as climate, including winter climate, changes.

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Tropical species are moving northward as winters warm

Photo, posted May 7, 2010, courtesy of Jim Reid / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

2018 Was A Wet Year

March 20, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Recent news reports noted that 2018 was the fourth hottest year on record. But the changing climate is not just about temperature. 2018 was also the third-wettest year since 1895, when steady record-keeping began.

Overall, the U.S. recorded 4.68 inches more precipitation in 2018 than the 20th century average. But all that rain and snow was nothing like evenly distributed. The eastern half of the country – especially in places like North Carolina and Virginia – saw record amounts of precipitation, while most of the West remained stuck in drought.

The warming climate leads to precipitation extremes at both ends, meaning that wet places are likely to get wetter and dry places drier. There has been a marked upward trend in short-duration extreme events. For example, Cyclone Mekunu dumped almost 13 inches of rain on Salalah, Oman in 36 hours, more than double its annual average rainfall.

In the southeast and eastern U.S., the trend toward stronger storm events is mostly driven by strong warming of the oceans that fringe their shores. Warm oceans evaporate more water into the air and warm air holds more water than cooler air. Warmer, moisture-laden air acts like a blanket over the land, keeping heat trapped near the ground. Many of the states that had their wettest-ever years also set records for high minimum temperatures – their coldest temperatures were less cold than in the past.

Air temperatures are projected to warm up even further in the coming years and, as a result, many scientists are anticipating that extreme precipitation events will only get more extreme. The pattern of drought in the west and wetness in the east is likely to stay.

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2018 was the U.S.’s third-wettest year on record—here’s why

Photo, posted August 18, 2018, courtesy of Jim Lukach via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Polar Vortex

February 20, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

This winter has seen some brutally-cold weather in many places, some of it record-breaking. Predictably, some climate-change deniers point to this as evidence that the climate is not warming at all. They are quite wrong.

For starters, it is essential to understand the difference between climate and weather. Climate is the average weather patterns in a region over extended periods of time. Weather is the short-term fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, barometric pressure, wind, and so forth. There can be extremes in weather of many types in a given climate region including very cold weather in a warming climate.

The recent cold weather events in the U.S. stem from the flow of Arctic air into southern regions. Such flows are impacted dramatically by the behavior of the jet stream. These high-altitude east-to-west winds are driven by temperature differences between cold arctic air and warm tropical air and play a huge role in our weather.

The Arctic has seen extremely unusual warming due to the changing climate, weakening and fracturing the polar vortex, which is a persistent low-pressure area near the pole. The changing air flow from the Arctic causes the jet stream to take wild swings. When it swings further south, it causes cold air to reach farther south. These swings tend to hang around for a while, leading to extended periods of cold weather in the winter and, actually, extended periods of warm weather or even droughts in the summer. Studies have predicted that extreme, deadly weather events could increase by as much as fifty percent by 2100.

As more Arctic air flows into southern regions, North America can expect to see harsher winters. The warming climate doesn’t always lead to warmer weather.

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Why cold weather doesn’t mean climate change is fake

Photo, posted January 30, 2019, courtesy of Kyle via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.