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California Flooding | Earth Wise

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Starting in December, a series of “atmospheric rivers” brought record storms to California producing as much rain in three weeks in some areas as they normally have in an entire year.  The historic levels of rain (and snow in the mountains) have swollen rivers, flooded roads and homes, forced evacuations, knocked out electric power for millions of people, and resulted in more than 20 deaths.

Atmospheric rivers are air currents that carry large amounts of water vapor through the sky.  They are not unusual for California but recurrent waves of them like those that have happened recently are very infrequent.  Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that such a phenomenon recurs in California every 250 years.  There were a series of storms causing disastrous floods in California in 1861-62.

The atmospheric rivers are born in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific.  During La Nina phases, the atmospheric rivers typically make landfall on the northern West Coast. During El Nino phases, atmospheric rivers are more likely to end up in Southern and Central California. During transitions between the phases, as is happening now, the storms can cover large parts of the state.

Modern forecasting is pretty good at predicting the forthcoming occurrence of these storms and has led to some helpful actions, such as reservoir operators preventing dams from overflowing or bursting.  But there is a gap between science and decision-making.  It is pretty clear what needs to be done when tornados or hurricanes are on the way.  It is less clear what actions are appropriate when there are going to be repeated heavy rainstorms.

These storms will have an effect on California’s megadrought, but just how much of an effect remains to be seen.

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Flooding in California: What Went Wrong, and What Comes Next

Photo, posted January 5, 2023, courtesy of Sarah Stierch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Triple La Niña | Earth Wise

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La Niña is an oceanic phenomenon consisting of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropic Pacific.  It is essentially the opposite of the better-known El Niño.   These sea-surface phenomena affect weather across the globe.  As one oceanographer put it:  when the Pacific speaks, the whole world listens.

There is currently a La Niña underway, and it is the third consecutive northern hemisphere winter that has had one.  This so-called triple-dip event is rather rare.  The only other times they have been recorded over the past 70 years were in 1954-56, 1973-76, and 1998-2001.

La Niñas appear when strong easterly trade winds increase the upwelling of cooler water from the depths of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator.  This causes large-scale cooling of the ocean surface.  The cooler ocean surface modifies the moisture content of the atmosphere across the Pacific and can cause shifts in the path of jet streams that intensifies rainfall in some places and causes droughts in others.

These weather effects tend to include floods in northern Australia, Indonesia, and southeast Asia and, in contrast, drought in the American southwest.  In North America, cooler and stormier conditions often occur across the Pacific Northwest while the weather becomes warmer across the southern US and northern Mexico.

In the spring, the tropic Pacific essentially resets itself and starts building toward whatever condition will happen in the following winter, be it another La Niña or possibly an El Niño.   For the time being, forecasters expect the current La Niña to persist through February.

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La Niña Times Three

Photo, posted March 10, 2007, courtesy of Gail via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Is It Really Getting Warmer? | Earth Wise

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The primary indicator of global climate change is the Global Mean Surface Temperature of the Earth and the world’s nations are trying to keep its increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius over the pre-industrial level.   That rise in temperature is called the Global Surface Temperature Anomaly and it actually reached an all-time high in 2016 at 1.02 degrees before going back down.

At this point, you might be saying, “hold on there…  it hasn’t gotten larger over the past 5 years?”  What’s going on?

The global climate is pretty complicated and there are many things that influence it.  One of the most significant factors is the El Niño Southern Oscillation or, more familiarly, the El Niño.  The El Niño is a periodic and irregular variation in the sea surface temperature of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean driven by persistent westerly winds.  When an El Niño is happening, currents move to the west coast of South America and warm the tropics and subtropics.  This causes a spike in the global mean temperature.  There was a strong El Niño in 2016.

On the other hand, when easterly winds dominate to form a La Niña, cool water comes up from the depths of the Pacific and cools the atmosphere.  In 2017 and 2018, there was a fairly strong La Niña, lowering the global mean temperature.  2020 had no El Niño or La Niña, and the global temperature went back up to its previous peak.  Last year, there was again a La Niña and the temperature dipped again.

The global mean surface temperature has been rising in the industrial era, but it also fluctuates with the complicated dynamics of the Pacific Ocean.

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Why Isn’t It Getting Warmer?

Photo, posted February 12, 2016, courtesy of Amit Patel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Coral Reef Status Report | Earth Wise

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In October, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network released the first-ever report collecting global statistics on the world’s corals.  It documents the status of reefs across 12,000 sites in 73 countries over 40 years.  Overall, the news is not good, but there were some bright spots.

From 2009 to 2018, the world has lost 14% of its corals, corresponding to about 4,500 square miles of coral.  Global warming has led to prolonged marine heatwaves that trigger coral bleaching.  Local pollution has also damaged reefs.   The International Panel on Climate Change has reported that 2 degrees Celsius of global warming would wipe out 99% of the world’s corals.

The report does show that corals can recover globally if given a decade of cooler waters.  Some places in the world – particularly the Coral Triangle in Asia, which contains nearly a third of the world’s coral – have actually seen coral growth over the past decade. 

The Global Coral Reef Monitoring network started collecting data in 1978.  Coral health was fairly steady until 1998 when the first mass bleaching event occurred, triggered by a powerful El Niño event.  For the next 12 years, corals recovered nicely, but then bleaching events in 2010 and 2015-17 took their toll.

The Pacific, Australia, and the Caribbean have all seen major decreases in coral.  The Coral Triangle is a major exception which is thought to be a result of genetic diversity among the region’s corals.

Coral conservationists globally are working to protect corals and to actively restore them.  The situation is fairly dire, but there continue to be reasons for hope.

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Finding Bright Spots in the Global Coral Reef Catastrophe

Photo, posted October 13, 2015, courtesy of Albert Straub via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wildfires And The Climate | Earth Wise

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Scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research recently published a study analyzing the events that influenced the world’s climate in 2020.  Among these were the pandemic-related lockdowns that reduced emissions and resulted in clearer air in many of the world’s cities.

While this was a significant event, the study found that something entirely different had a more immediate effect on global climate:  the enormous bushfires that burned in Australia from late 2019 to 2020, producing plumes of smoke that reached the stratosphere and circled much of the southern hemisphere.

Those fires sprung up in September 2019 and lasted until March 2020.  The fires burned more than 46 million acres (about 72,000 square miles), which is roughly the same area as the entire country of Syria.  Thousands of homes and other buildings were lost.

Major fires inject so many sulfates and other particles into the atmosphere that they can disrupt the climate system, push tropical thunderstorms northward from the equator, and potentially influence the periodic warming and cooling of tropical Pacific Ocean waters known as El Nino and La Nina.

According to the study, the COVID-19 lockdowns actually had a slight warming influence on global climate, as a result of clearer skies enabling more heat to reach the earth’s surface.  In contrast, the Australian bushfires cooled the Southern Hemisphere because the atmospheric particles reflected some of the incoming solar radiation back to space.

This summer, there have been raging wildfires in the western US and Canada, which have affected air quality in many parts of the nation and have been a serious health hazard.  Undoubtedly, these fires are influencing the climate system as well in ways that we are still trying to understand.

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Bushfires, not pandemic lockdowns, had biggest impact on global climate in 2020

Photo, posted January 18, 2020, courtesy of BLM-Idaho via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Collapse of Northern California Kelp Forests | Earth Wise

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For thousands of years, thick canopies of kelp formed an underwater forest spanning the coast of Northern California.  Kelp is the cornerstone of a rich subtidal community, providing food and habitat for all sorts of marine creatures.  But in recent years, a shocking transformation has occurred.  Satellite imagery reveals that the area covered by kelp forests off the coast of Northern California has declined by more than 95%.  Only a few small, isolated patches remain.  

In a new study, researchers at the University of California Santa Cruz found that the kelp forest decline was an abrupt collapse as opposed to a gradual decline. 

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Communications Biology, kelp forests north of San Francisco were resilient to warming events in the past, like El Niños and marine heatwaves. But the decline of a key sea urchin predator – the sunflower sea star – from sea star wasting disease caused the kelp forests’ resiliency to plummet.  Sea urchins are voracious consumers of kelp.     

But it was a series of events – not just the sea urchins – that combined to decimate the Northern California kelp forest.   A marine heatwave that became known as “the blob” developed in 2014 and moved down the West Coast in 2015.  Around the same time, a strong El Niño event developed and brought warmer water up the coast from the south.  The warming ocean waters combined with the ravenous sea urchin population resulted in the dramatic decline of kelp. 

According to researchers, the prospects for a Northern California kelp forest recovery remain poor unless sea urchin predators return to the ecosystem. 

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The collapse of Northern California kelp forests will be hard to reverse

Photo, posted August 13, 2019, courtesy of Sara Hamilton of OSU College of Science via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And El Niño

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The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.  Amazingly, the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns.

The study, led by scientists in China and the US, looked at data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901.  Since the 1970s, El Niños have been forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer.  Strong El Niños can cause severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the US Pacific Northwest and Peru, and more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic.

Before 1978, 12 out of 14 El Niños formed east of the International Dateline.  Since 1978, all 11 have formed in the central or western Pacific Ocean a shift of hundreds of miles.  There have been three so-called super El Niños since the shift – in 1982, 1997, and 2015.  These have set new average temperature records and triggered catastrophic natural disasters.

With rising global temperatures, El Niños are likely to continue to intensify, with major impacts on human societies around the world.

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Climate Change is Making El Niños More Intense, Study Finds

Photo, posted January 20, 2016, courtesy of Los Angeles District via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change Is Not Natural

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It has been the overwhelming consensus of the scientific community for a long time that human activity and other external factors are responsible for the continuing rise in global temperature.  Despite this widespread agreement, there have been those who argue that natural ocean cycles might be influencing global warming over the course of multiple decades.

A new study, published in the Journal of Climate, provides an answer to the question of how much influence natural cycles might have, and that answer is very little to none.

The study looked at observed ocean and land temperature data since 1850 and, apart from human-induced factors such as greenhouse gas concentrations, took into account other occurrences such as volcanic eruptions, solar activity, and air pollution peaks.  The findings demonstrated that slow-acting ocean cycles do not explain the long-term changes in global temperatures.

Based on the study, the researchers can state with confidence that human factors like greenhouse gas emissions and particulate pollution, along with year-to-year changes caused by natural phenomena like volcanic eruptions or El Niño, are sufficient to explain virtually all the long-term changes in temperature.  The idea that the oceans could have been driving the climate either in a colder or warmer direction for multiple decades in the past and therefore will do so in the future is unlikely to be correct.

A number of previous studies have compared flawed observations with flawed modeling results to claim that naturally-occurring ocean cycles have played a large role in global temperatures.  The new study shows that such cycles have little influence on the climate.  Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is really what we need to do.

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Global temperature change attributable to external factors, confirms new study

Photo, posted November 13, 2007, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bad News For Penguins

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The second-largest breeding colony of emperor penguins in Antarctica, located in the Waddell Sea, has experienced “catastrophic breeding failure” for the past three years.  Nearly all of the colony’s chicks have failed to survive due to the breakup of sea ice, according to a new study published in the journal Antarctic Science.

The colony was once home to 14,000 to 25,000 breeding pairs, which represents as much as 9% of the global emperor penguin population.  Emperor penguins are the tallest and heaviest of all living penguins, reaching up to 4 feet in height and weighing between 50 and 100 pounds.  They are the only penguin species that breeds during the Antarctic winter and their lengthy treks to breeding colonies have been the subject of numerous films and television shows.

Sea ice at Halley Bay in Antarctica had been stable and reliable for nearly 60 years but stormy weather in 2016 driven by El Nino conditions, strong winds, and record low ice extent caused the ice on which penguin chicks gather to break up.  This happened again in 2017 and 2018.  By last year, just a few hundred adult pairs were present at the breeding site and almost no chicks survived the ice breakup.

Researchers say that they have never seen a breeding failure on a scale like this in 60 years of studying the colonies.  On a more positive note, while the population of the Halley Bay site has collapsed, the Dawson-Lambton breeding area – located about 34 miles away – has actually seen significant growth over the past four years.  While this is encouraging, the growth at Dawson-Lambton does not fully compensate for the losses at Halley Bay, which was once considered relatively safe from the impacts of climate change.

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Emperor Penguin Colony Experiences “Catastrophic Breeding Failure”

Photo, posted February 22, 2011, courtesy of Krishna via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Bad Year For Carbon

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Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for hundreds of thousands of years, and they continue to grow.  The United Kingdom’s national meteorological service – known as the Met Office – issues annual predictions of global CO2 levels based in part on readings taken at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii.  Their forecast for this year is that there will be one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in the 62 years of measurements at Mauna Loa.

Since 1958, there has been a 30% increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  This has been caused by emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and cement production.  The increase would actually have been even larger if it were not for natural carbon sinks in the form of various ecosystems that soak up some of the excess CO2.

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon dioxide by land ecosystems.  In years with a warmer tropical Pacific – such as El Niño years – many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and to absorb CO2 .  The opposite happens when the Pacific is cool, as was the case last year.

The Met Office predicts that the contribution of natural carbon sinks will be relatively weak, so the impact of human-caused emissions will be larger than last year.  The predicted rise in atmospheric CO2 is 2.75 parts-per-million, which is among the highest rises on record.  The forecast for the average carbon dioxide concentration is 411 ppm, with peak monthly averages reaching almost 415 ppm.  With global emissions not really declining, the numbers just get higher and higher.

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Faster CO₂ rise expected in 2019

Photo, posted March 18, 2006, courtesy of Darin Marshall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Indonesian Deforestation

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Deforestation is defined as the intentional destruction of trees and other vegetation without reforesting or allowing the forest to regenerate itself. 

In Indonesia, industrial agriculture, primarily for the production of palm oil, is a major driver of deforestation.  But, according to researchers at Duke University, its impact has diminished  proportionately in recent years as other natural and human causes have emerged. Their peer-reviewed findings were recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

According to the study’s lead author, large-scale plantations were responsible for more than half of Indonesia’s deforestation in the late 2000s, peaking between 2008-2010 when an average of 1.5 million acres of forest was lost annually.  The expansion of the massive plantations was responsible for 57% of the forest loss. Between 2014-2016, an average of more than 2 million acres of forest was lost annually, but plantation expansion only accounted for 25% of this figure.  While the overall rate of deforestation continued to grow, other factors were responsible for most of it.

Conversions of forests to grasslands rose sharply in 2015 and 2016 when El Nino caused severe droughts and forest fires. Small-scale farming, often overshadowed by industrial agriculture, was also found to play a bigger role, accounting for 25% of all forest loss. 

Indonesia has experienced some of the highest rates of deforestation.  Its forests absorb and store vast amounts of climate-warming carbon dioxide, help prevent erosion and flooding, and provide habitat to thousands of species.  Understanding the varied causes of Indonesian deforestation should help conservationists and policymakers better address the problem.

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Palm oil not the only driver of forest loss in Indonesia

Photo, posted March 26, 2018, courtesy of Achmad Rabin Taim via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Saildrones For Science

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Nine years ago, engineer Richard Jenkins broke the world land speed record for a wind-powered vehicle with a sailboat on wheels driving across a dry lakebed at 126 miles per hour.  After years of engineering development, his technology has now taken on the form of a saildrone that can autonomously sail the sea gathering ecologic, oceanic and atmospheric data.

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Rising Seas On The East Coast

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Global sea levels are rising by about a tenth of an inch per year, but in some places, the rise is faster… much faster.  From 2011 to 2015, sea levels rose up to 5 inches – an inch per year – in some locales along the Eastern Seaboard.  Places like Norfolk, Virginia and Miami are experiencing so-called sunny day flooding, something that had not been expected for decades according to climate projections.  So, what is going on?

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Indonesian Deforestation Continues

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Worldwide, deforestation and land disturbance are responsible for about a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions.  The largest contributor to this problem is Indonesia and getting control of its emissions is a crucial part of meeting global carbon reduction targets.

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Winter Outlook

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Each year around this time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, releases its U.S. Winter Outlook that predicts overall weather trends around the country for the upcoming winter.  They produce these seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for the weather that is likely to be forthcoming.

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Some Good News For Coral Reefs

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Most recent news about coral reefs around the world has been bad news.  There has been unprecedented coral bleaching in places like Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.   The effects of climate change – including warming temperatures and rising seas – as well as the recent El Niño event have led to damaged reefs across the globe.

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