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China and carbon emissions

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China has been the biggest source of greenhouse emissions for nearly 20 years.  Its emissions surpassed those of the United States in 2006 and its fraction of the world’s emissions is now nearly a third.  Therefore, unless China’s emissions stop growing, the world’s emissions won’t either.

Recent data from China’s government and by energy analysts provides some reasons for optimism.  What is happening is that how China produces its electricity is changing.  Renewable sources are gradually replacing coal.

Last year alone, China installed more solar panels than the United States has in its entire history.  Nearly two-thirds of utility-scale wind and solar plants under construction are in China.  According to a report from Global Energy Monitor, China is developing more than eight times the wind and solar capacity currently being planned for the US.

Despite all this progress, China still generates 53% of its electricity from coal.  While this is the lowest share reported since its government began publishing energy data decades ago, it is still a major source of carbon emissions.  China is responsible for two-thirds of the world’s newly operating coal plants and still plans to build many more.  China accounts for about 60% of the world’s coal use.

China is investing heavily in pumped-storage hydropower along with its massive efforts in solar and wind power.  But if it is to meet existing and proposed new commitments to reduce emissions, it will need to be much more aggressive in reducing its dependence on coal.  Current predictions are that China’s emissions may soon no longer be increasing.  But what is needed is for them to start dropping and the sooner the better.

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Why the Era of China’s Soaring Carbon Emissions Might Be Ending

Photo courtesy of Mike Locke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Big Oil And Big Lithium | Earth Wise

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The world’s big oil companies have worked pretty hard to prolong society’s dependence on petroleum.  When there are trillions of dollars at stake, there is plenty of motivation.  But those companies do see the writing on the wall.

An Exxon Mobil-funded study last year estimated that light-duty vehicle demand for combustion engine fuels could peak in 2025 and that electric vehicles of various types could grow to more than 50% of new car sales by 2050.  This is pretty pessimistic compared with most other surveys, but it is still a big number.  Exxon also projected that the global fleet of EVs could reach 420 million by 2040.

As a result of all this, Exxon is preparing for a future far less dependent on gasoline by drilling for lithium rather than oil.  The company recently purchased mining rights to a sizable chunk of Arkansas land for over $100 million from which it aims to produce lithium for electric car batteries.

Exxon’s consultants estimated that the 120,000 acres in the Smackover formation of southern Arkansas could have as much as 4 million tons of lithium carbonate, enough to power 50 million cars and trucks. 

Exxon plans to spend $17 billion through 2027 on cutting carbon emissions and developing low carbon technologies.  Other large oil producers have also been looking at the lithium business.  At the same time, some large oil companies like BP and Shell are investing in renewable energy.

The prospect of EVs dominating transportation in the coming decades is a strong incentive for oil-and-gas companies to adapt their businesses to the new world.

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Exxon Joins Hunt for Lithium in Bet on EV Boom

Photo, posted August 16, 2014, courtesy of Mike Mozart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars Getting Cheaper | Earth Wise

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A sticking point for buying electric cars has always been that they are typically more expensive than equivalent gasoline-powered cars.  But increasing competition, government incentives, and falling prices for lithium and other battery materials is changing the equation.  In fact, the tipping point when electric cars are as cheap or even cheaper than internal combustion cars is likely to happen this year for many cars and, in fact, has already happened for some.

Battery production is ramping up for Tesla, General Motors, Ford, and others, creating cost savings from mass production. Companies manufacturing batteries in the United States are receiving government subsidies as part of a drive to establish a domestic supply chain and reduce dependence on China.  Before anyone cries foul, it should be noted that globally, oil companies received a trillion dollars in subsidies last year.  The Inflation Reduction Act is making it cheaper for automakers to build electric cars (provided they do it in the United States using US materials) and cheaper for consumers to buy them because of tax credits.

Multiple companies have lowered the price of their electric vehicles in recent months, including both the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, which are the best-selling electric cars in the United States. GM’s electric Equinox crossover will start at about $30,000, which is still about $3,400 more than the gas-powered version.  But once the electric vehicle tax credit is figured in, it will actually be cheaper.

Electric cars are already cheaper to own and operate because of the much lower cost of powering with electricity instead of gas as well as the greatly reduced maintenance costs for the vehicles.  Once the purchase price of these cars is less than that of gas-powered cars, the economics becomes a no-brainer.

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Electric Vehicles Could Match Gasoline Cars on Price This Year

Photo, posted May 11, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

More Bleaching In The Great Barrier Reef | Earth Wise

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Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is an ecosystem that can be seen from space.  It has now suffered its 6th mass coral bleaching event since 1998.  Previous events happened in 1998, 2002, 2006, 2016, and 2017.  This latest bleaching has occurred even though this is a La Niña year, when more rain and cooler temperatures are supposed to help protect delicate corals.

An aerial survey of 750 separate reefs across much of the 1500 mile-long Great Barrier Reef system found severe bleaching among 60% of the corals.  The bleaching covers an area even wider than the back-to-back outbreaks in 2016 and 2017.

The bleaching is a product of a summer in Australia that started early.  December temperatures were already warmer than the historical February summer maximums.  Globally, 2021 was the hottest year on record for the world’s oceans for the sixth year in a row.

Bleached coral can recover if temperatures cool down for a long enough period, but this is becoming increasingly rare.  Between 2009 and 2019, 14% of the world’s coral reefs were lost for good.

In Australia, the plight of the Great Barrier Reef has become politicized.  The current government is not supportive of efforts to reduce the country’s fossil fuel dependence and has worked to keep the reef from being placed on the list of endangered world heritage sites.  Instead of pushing for emissions cuts, Australia has focused on a variety of long-shot projects aimed at helping the reef.

The fact is that coral reefs cannot cope with the current rate of warming and unless that slows down soon, they will simply not survive for long.

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Photo, posted September 28, 2009, courtesy of Matt Kieffer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Danger Of Relying On Future Technology | Earth Wise

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The need to mitigate the effects of climate change has been a global focus for about 40 years and has seen ever-changing views on what actions are needed.  The historical record has been defined by over-reliance on promises of new technology to solve climate change.  Looking to future technology to save the environment has been an excuse to postpone necessary action and avoid inconvenient changes in how we do things.

A study at Lancaster University in the UK published in Nature Climate Change exposes how such promises have raised expectations of more effective policy options becoming available in the future and have enabled the continued politics of inadequate action and skirting around the truth.

Even after four decades, rather than acting forcefully to reduce emissions, we are hoping that nuclear fusion power, giant carbon sucking machines, ice-restoration using vast numbers of wind-powered pumps, and spraying particulates into the atmosphere can address the climate crisis rather than dramatic changes in fossil fuel use.

The researchers mapped the history of climate targets in five phases.  Early on, the focus was on improved energy efficiency, large-scale enhancement of carbon sinks, and nuclear power.  Next, the focus was on cutting emissions with efficiency, fuel switching, and carbon capture and storage.  After that, bioenergy was the major focus.  Then, global carbon budgeting and potential negative emission technologies.  Currently, the focus is on temperature outcomes rather than emission targets.

Each novel promise competes with existing ideas and downplays any sense of urgency.   The researchers conclude that putting our hopes on yet more new technologies is unwise.  The time to act is now.

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Why relying on new technology won’t save the planet

Photo, posted February 13, 2019, courtesy of Jonathan Cutrer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Why Save Endangered Species?

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One often hears the argument that humans need to save the world’s endangered species in order to save ourselves.  Carl Safina, a marine ecologist and award-winning environmental writer, has written a thought-provoking essay that offers the viewpoint that we don’t actually need the wild species of the world but that they need us.

The truth is that human beings have thrived by destroying nature.  We have exploited other species when they were useful to us and simply pushed them aside when they weren’t.  We drove America’s most abundant bird – the passenger pigeon – to extinction.  The most abundant large mammal – the bison – was driven to functional extinction.

In today’s world, people live at high densities in places devoid of wild species and natural beauty.  And while we express concern for elephants, gorillas, sperm whales, tigers, and various other species, how would the lives of most of us be affected at all should they vanish entirely?  The unfortunate truth is that it would make little difference to our lives.

The only species that are really essential to modern living are actually microbes of decay, a few insect pollinators, and the ocean’s photosynthesizing plankton.  Life would go on little changed without most other co-inhabitants of our planet.

Safina argues that our obligation to protect endangered species does not come from our dependence upon them but rather on a moral obligation.  Humans consider ourselves to be the most moral species and, as such, we have moral obligations.  In this case, it is to protect the beauty and wonder of our world, which is not trivial but in fact is the most profound thing on earth.

Safina has much more to say about this and I strongly recommend reading his essay.  You can find the link here.

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The Real Case for Saving Species: We Don’t Need Them, But They Need Us

Photo, posted December 9, 2014, courtesy of Gerry Zambonini via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The U.S. Military And Climate Change

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According to new research by scientists from Durham University and Lancaster University, the United States military is one of the largest climate polluters.  The U.S. military consumes more liquid fuels and emits more greenhouse gases than most countries.  

The study, published in Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, finds that if the U.S. military were a country, it would be the 47th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, falling between Peru and Portugal.  And this only takes into account the emissions from its liquid fuel consumption.  For this study, the U.S. military’s 2015 consumption was compared with the 2014 World Bank country liquid fuel consumption. 

In 2017, the U.S. military purchased more than 269,000 barrels of oil a day, emitting more than 25,000 kt- CO2e by burning those fuels.  The Air Force accounted for $4.9 billion worth of this fuel, followed by the Navy at $2.8 billion, the Army at $947 million, and the Marines at $36 million. 

The Air Force and the Navy are not only the U.S. military’s largest purchasers of fuel, they also use the most polluting types of fuel.  The Air Force is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases at more than 13,000 kt CO2e, nearly double that of the Navy’s 7,800 kt CO2e. 

Despite this study’s findings and a general uptick in awareness, it’s unlikely that the U.S. military’s dependence on fossil fuels will change.  That’s because the military continues to pursue open-ended operations around the globe, and the lifecycle of its existing military equipment insures dependence on hydrocarbons for many years to come. 

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U.S. military consumes more hydrocarbons than most countries — massive hidden impact on climate

Photo, posted July 8, 2016, courtesy of Alan Wilson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Shutting Down Minnesota Coal Plants

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One of the largest utilities in the United States, Xcel Energy Inc., announced that it will close its remaining coal-fired power plants in the Upper Midwest a decade ahead of its previously-announced schedule.  In addition, the company will add 3,000 megawatts of new solar capacity by 2030.

The Allen S. King plant in Oak Park Heights, Minnesota and the Sherburne County Generating Station in Becker, Minnesota are the plants in question.  The transition away from coal is a difficult challenge for such small communities.  The plant in Becker, for example, employs 300 people in a town of 4,500 and provides 75% of the city’s tax base.  Towns like this realize that coal is inevitably going away and must find ways to move beyond their dependence upon it.  The Becker plant will not completely close until 2030, but parts will now only run seasonally, and one of the 3 units will close permanently in 2023

Xcel Energy, based in Minneapolis, serves more than 3.3 million electricity customers in 8 states.  Last December, the company announced that it would deliver 100% clean, carbon-free electricity by 2050 and would achieve an 80% carbon reduction from its 2005 levels by 2035.  It is the first major US utility to set such a goal.

Xcel will increase its investment in energy efficiency measures, bring 1,850 megawatts of new wind capacity online in Minnesota by 2022, and keep its Monticello Nuclear Generating Station operating until 2040, a decade later than planned.  The company’s stepped-up clean energy strategy is part of a new legal settlement between the company, environmental organizations, and labor groups that involves Xcel’s proposed $650 million purchase of a 760-megawatt natural gas plant.

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A Major U.S. Utility Is Closing Its Coal-Fired Power Plants a Decade Early

Photo, posted January 3, 2016, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)