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Too hot for people

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The effort to mitigate the effects of climate change has a goal of keeping the global temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.  To date, the average global temperature has increased by more than 1 degree.  We hear about rising sea levels, powerful storms, and various other alterations in climate and weather patterns.  A new interdisciplinary study by three institutions looked at the impact of surpassing the 1.5-degree level upon people being able to withstand heat and humidity.

Humans can only withstand certain combinations of heat and humidity before their bodies begin to experience heat-related health problems such as heat stroke and heart attacks. 

In human history, temperatures and humidity that exceed human limits have been recorded only a limited number of times and only for a few hours at a time, in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

According to the new study, if global temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the 2.2 billion residents of Pakistan and India’s Indus River Valley, the one billion people living in eastern China, and the 800 million residents of sub-Saharan Africa will annually experience many hours of heat surpassing human tolerance.

If the warming continues further to 3 degrees, heat and humidity levels that surpass human tolerance would affect the Eastern Seaboard and the middle of the US from Florida to New York and from Houston to Chicago.

The worst heat stress will occur in regions that are not wealthy and that are experiencing rapid population growth.  But even wealthy nations will not escape from the expansion of conditions that are too hot for people.

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Climate-driven extreme heat may make parts of Earth too hot for humans

Photo, posted June 28, 2018, courtesy of Ivan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Huge American Lithium Discovery | Earth Wise

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Human history has often been described in terms of a succession of metal ages:  the copper age, the bronze age, and the iron age.  In many ways, we have now entered the lithium age.  The light metal goes into the batteries that power smartphones, electric vehicles, and massive storage banks for the power grid.  Lithium has become a critical strategic resource.

As it stands now, the U.S. gets most of its lithium from imports from Australia and South America.  Major lithium sources are not commonplace; in 2022 there were only 45 lithium mines in the world.  Many of the known deposits are not in North America but in Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, China, and Australia.  The current largest known lithium deposits lie beneath the salt flats of Bolivia.

Lithium Americas Corporation, a company dedicated to advancing lithium projects to the stage of production, funded research over the past decade that has identified vast deposits of lithium-rich clay in a dormant volcanic crater along the Nevada-Oregon border.  The McDermitt Caldera is estimated to hold between 20 and 40 million tons of lithium, which would make it the largest deposit in the world.

There are many questions still to answer.  It is not clear how easy it will be to extract lithium from the clay, in particular how expensive or carbon-intensive it will be.  There are also political complexities since the area where the lithium deposit was found is considered to be unceded ancestral land for both the Paiute and Shoshone tribes.

Apart from a dearth of domestic sources of lithium, the US also lags well behind China in lithium processing capabilities.  The country has catching up to do in the new lithium age.

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America Just Hit the Lithium Jackpot

Photo, posted April 19, 2020, courtesy of Ken Lund via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Grid-Scale Gravity Energy Storage | Earth Wise

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As wind and solar energy play a growing part in our energy system, the need for grid-scale energy storage is growing as well.  An historic form of energy storage and still the largest in installed capacity is pumped hydro storage, which makes use of the potential energy contained in having water sitting at a higher elevation where it can be released downward to operate turbine generators.  This is an effective system but is limited to places where geography cooperates.

For the past five years, a company called Energy Vault has been developing a system that uses the same principle to generate electricity but instead of pumping water to a higher elevation, it uses mechanical devices to lift heavy objects such as concrete blocks to an appropriate height.  Lowering the blocks back to the ground drives generators.

To date, Energy Vault has only built demonstration systems with a fraction of the storage capacity needed for grid-scale operation. Their EV1 Tower in Switzerland was successfully grid interconnected in 2020 and demonstrated round-trip efficiency (the fraction of the energy stored that was produced by the generators) above 75%.  Their improved EVx system is expected to do better than 80%.

This year the company, along with partners Atlas Renewable and China TIanying, is now in the first phases of commissioning a grid-scale system located outside of Shanghai, China.  The 25-MW system is built adjacent to a wind farm and a national grid interconnection site

This is the first grid-scale gravity energy storage system and is expected to be fully online in the fourth quarter of this year.  A second, similar system is now under contract to be built elsewhere in China.

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First grid-scale gravity energy storage system undergoes commencement in China

Photo courtesy of Energy Vault.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Phoenix Is Frying | Earth Wise

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The mythical Phoenix is a bird that repeatedly dies in a fire of its own making.  During July, the five million inhabitants of greater Phoenix Arizona may have felt like they were reliving that myth as multiple temperature records were shattered in a massive heatwave.

On June 30, the high temperature in Phoenix was 110 degrees.  From then on, the daily highs were relentlessly at or above 110 degrees, topping out at 119 on July 20.  The previous record for consecutive days at or above 110 was 18 set in June 1974.  The streak continued all the way until July 31, when incoming desert monsoons resulted in the high temperature dropping to 107 degrees – ending the streak at 31 days.  Along the way, there were 16 days with temperatures at or above 115 degrees. 

During the month, there were 17 consecutive days when the lowest temperature in Phoenix was at least 90 degrees.  The previous record for that was 7 days, set in 2020.  Because of these lofty low temperatures, July was also the hottest month in terms of average temperature with a reading well above 102 degrees.  It was the first time that the average temperature has ever been in three digits.  The previous record was 99.1 degrees in 2020.

Phoenix is an extreme case, but it was not alone in having a hot July.  Globally, it was the hottest July on record that included major heat waves in the U.S., Mexico, China, southern Europe, and elsewhere.  The daily record for the hottest average temperature on Earth ever measured was also broken several times during the month.

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Phoenix heat wave is shattering temperature records

Photo, posted September 22, 2022, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Global Aquaculture And Environmental Change | Earth Wise

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Blue foods are fish, invertebrates, algae, and aquatic plants that are captured or cultured in freshwater and marine ecosystems.  They include approximately 2,200 species of fish, shellfish, plants and algae as well as more than 500 species farmed in freshwater.  Blue foods play a central role in food and nutrition security for billions of people, and are a cornerstone of the livelihoods, economies, and cultures of many communities around the world.

But many of the world’s largest aquatic food producers are highly vulnerable to human-induced environmental change.  According to a new paper recently published in the journal Nature Sustainability, more than 90% of global blue food production is at risk from environmental changes, with top producers like the United States, Norway, and China facing the biggest threat.  Alarmingly, the research also found that some of the highest-risk countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa demonstrate the lowest capacity for adaptation. 

The paper is the first-ever global analysis of environmental stressors impacting the production quantity and safety of blue foods. A total of 17 anthropogenic stressors were surveyed, including rising seas and temperatures, ocean acidification, changes in rainfall, algal blooms, pollution, and pesticides. 

The research is one of seven scientific papers published by the Blue Food Assessment as part of a global effort to inform future aquatic food sustainability. 

The report calls for more transboundary collaboration and for a diversification of blue food production in high-risk countries to cope with the impact of environmental change. 

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Vulnerability of blue foods to human-induced environmental change

New research finds that more than 90% of global aquaculture faces substantial risk from environmental change

Photo, posted December 30, 2014, courtesy of NOAA’s National Ocean Service via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewables In China | Earth Wise

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A couple of years ago, China set an ambitious goal for renewable energy capacity – which includes wind, solar, hydroelectric, and nuclear power – for it to exceed fossil fuel capacity by 2025.  According to a recent report by Reuters, China has hit this goal two years ahead of schedule.  Renewables now make up 50.9% of the country’s power capacity.

The rapid growth in renewable capacity has largely been driven by investments in wind and solar megaprojects in the sparsely populated west of the country that export power to the manufacturing centers in the east.  China’s most recent 5-year plan calls for 570 gigawatts of wind and solar power to be installed over that period, which more than doubles its installed capacity.  The plan makes use of what it called “clean energy bases”, which utilize sandy and rocky deserts, other types of barren lands, and wastelands left behind by coal mining.  The largest clean energy bases make use of vast deserts in Inner Mongolia and Gansu.

One cautionary note is that power capacity refers to the maximum amount of electricity that a power plant can produce under ideal conditions.  Thus, for example, it refers to how much electricity a solar farm can generate at noon on a cloudless day.  So, the new figures from China don’t necessarily reveal how much electricity China is actually drawing from renewables.  In reality, China still gets a great deal of its power from coal.

China is the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide – more than twice as much as the United States, albeit from nearly 4 times the population.  The rapid growth of renewables is at least moving that country in the right direction.

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Fossil Fuels Now Account for Less Than Half of China’s Power Capacity

Photo, posted December 2, 2015, courtesy of IBM via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Can All Plant Species Survive? | Earth Wise 

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Many animal populations around the world are struggling and people are mostly to blame.  Species are declining because of all sorts of things including changes in land and sea use, pollution, invasive species, and climate change.

Like many animal species, plants are also struggling to adapt to a human-dominated world.  Plants provide the planet with food, oxygen, and energy, and are used to produce fibers, building materials, and medicines.  Even though plants are easier and cheaper to protect, they are often overlooked in conservation efforts. 

According to a paper recently published in the journal Trends in Plant Science, preventing all future land plant extinctions across the globe is possible with the right approaches.  The author of the paper, Richard Corlett of the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden in China, writes that “if zero extinction is potentially achievable for plants, a less ambitious target would be inexcusable.” 

According to the paper, one big barrier in plant conservation is the lack of trained specialists, especially in tropical areas where there is a backlog of unidentified species.  It’s likely that many “dark extinctions,” which is when species slip away without us knowing they existed, have already occurred.

Another roadblock in preventing plant extinctions is information access, which can be solved by building an online “metaherbarium.”  This collaborative database would link digitized records from herbarium specimens with photographs, status assessments, and recovery plans.

Finally, the creation of “microreserves” – which are tiny pieces of protected land designed to get around space constraints – would further contribute to effective conservation of targeted plant species. 

Zero plant extinctions should be the goal.   

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‘Zero plant extinction’ is possible, says plant ecologist

Photo, posted May 16, 2008, courtesy of Andrew Otto via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Explosive Growth Of Electric Vehicles | Earth Wise

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Not long ago, electric cars were a rarity.  Ten years ago, annual global sales of EVs were only a few hundred thousand.  As of today, globally, still less than one percent of all the cars on the road are electric.  But that is changing rapidly.

In fact, electric vehicles are expected to capture nearly 20% of the global market this year.  Global sales of EVs were 3 million in 2020 and 6.6 million in 2021.  Last year, sales of electric vehicles hit 10 million and are expected to reach 14 million this year according to the International Energy Agency.

Analysts at the IEA have had to repeatedly revise their projections for future EV sales as the numbers keep going up faster than predicted.  Last year, they projected that EVs would account for 21% of global sales by 2030.  Now, they expect that EVs will reach 35% of sales by that year.

In the US, the EU, and China, policy efforts are in place to boost EV sales.  In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act both supports the EV industry and subsidizes consumer purchases with tax credits. As a result of such policies, the IEA expects electric vehicles to account for 60% of sales across these three large markets by 2030.

Part of what is driving the boom in EV sales is that prices continue to come down for the vehicles.  When operating and maintenance costs are figured in, the EVs come out considerably cheaper to own.  In addition, there are starting to be price wars in the EV industry as competition heats up in the sector.

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EVs to Capture One-Fifth of Global Market This Year Amid ‘Explosive Growth’

Photo, posted May 7, 2022, courtesy of Sharon Hahn Darlin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Rare Earths And The Energy Transition | Earth Wise

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Limiting the rise in global temperature to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius requires decarbonization.  This means slashing fossil fuel use, switching to renewable energy sources, and electrifying as many sectors of the economy as possible.  Doing these things requires huge numbers of wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles, and storage batteries.   All of them use rare earth elements and other critical metals.

The 17 rare earth elements are actually common, but they are called rare because they are seldom found in sufficient quantities to be extracted easily or economically. 

China once supplied 97% of the world’s rare earth elements as a result of government support, cheap labor, lax environmental regulations, and low prices.  Once the world started to realize the dangers of being so dependent on China, many countries began developing their own rare earth element production. (However, today China still produces 60-70% of the world’s rare earth elements).

It is difficult to mine rare earth elements without causing environmental damage.  The prevalent extraction techniques involve toxic chemicals that can leach into the environment and, because rare earths are often found near radioactive elements, mining often brings dangerous radioactive waste into the environment.

Researchers are working on ways to make rare earth mining more sustainable.  Some of these include biomining – which uses microbes to extract rare earths from ores, electrical methods to free rare earths from ores, and so-called agromining, which is growing plants that hyperaccumulate rare earths from the soil into their tissues.

Making rare earth mining more sustainable and less harmful to the environment is an essential part of the world’s future.

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The Energy Transition Will Need More Rare Earth Elements. Can We Secure Them Sustainably?

Photo, posted November 18, 2008, courtesy of the Oregon Department of Transportation via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Falling Lithium Prices | Earth Wise

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Lithium, the key element in the batteries that power electric cars, as well as smartphones, tablets, and laptop computers, is sometimes called white gold.  Over time, the price of the metal has gone up and up.  But recently, and surprisingly, the price of lithium has actually gone down, helping to make electric vehicles more affordable.

Over the first couple of months of this year, the price of lithium has dropped by nearly 20%.  The price of cobalt, another important component of vehicle batteries, has fallen by more than half.  Even copper, another battery material, has seen its price drop by 18%.

Many analysts predicted that prices of these commodities would stay high or even climb higher.  The reason for the decline, as well as whether it is likely to persist, is the subject of much debate.

Some experts believe that the price drops are a result of demand not being as high as expected, perhaps related to slowing sales growth of EVs in Europe and China after certain subsidies expired.  Other industry experts said that the drop was a result of new mines and processing plants providing additional supply sooner than was thought possible.

Despite the price drops, mining and processing lithium remains an extraordinarily profitable business.  It costs from $5,000 to $8,000 to produce a ton of lithium that sells for ten times that amount.  With such fat profit margins, there is no shortage of banks and investors eager to finance lithium mining and processing projects.  Such profit margins are probably not sustainable and that will likely result in more reasonable prices over time.

There is plenty of lithium in the world.  The huge demand for it is a recent phenomenon and the world is still working out how to meet that demand.

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Falling Lithium Prices Are Making Electric Cars More Affordable

Photo, posted January 9, 2023, courtesy of Phillip Pessar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

An Accelerating Rate Of Mountain Forest Loss | Earth Wise

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Mountains contribute disproportionately to the Earth’s diversity of life.  While mountains account for about 25% of the land area on Earth, they are home to more than 85% of the mammal, bird, and amphibian species.  But alarmingly, forested mountain habitats in which these species live are disappearing, and they appear to be disappearing at an accelerating rate.

According to a new study recently published in the journal One Earth, more than 300,000 square miles of mountain forest has been lost globally since 2000, which is an area larger than the state of Texas. 

A research team led by scientists from Leeds University in the United Kingdom and the Southern University of Science and Technology in China tracked changes in mountain forests on an annual basis from 2001 to 2018.  The researchers found logging to be the biggest driver of mountain forest loss, responsible for 42% of the overall decline.  This is followed by wildfires at 29%, so-called “slash-and-burn” cultivation at 15%, and permanent or semi-permanent agriculture at 10%.  Significant losses occurred in Asia, Africa, Europe, Australia, and South America, but not in Oceania or North America.

The research team also found that the rate of mountain forest loss seems to be accelerating: in fact, the annual rate of loss increased 50% from 2010-2018 when compared with 2001-2009.

While developing additional forest protection strategies and interventions is critical, the researchers emphasize the importance of also considering food production, livelihoods, and human wellbeing in any new measures.

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Mountain forests are being lost at an accelerating rate, putting biodiversity at risk

Photo, posted December 6, 2018, courtesy of Lance Cheung / USDA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars Getting Cheaper | Earth Wise

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A sticking point for buying electric cars has always been that they are typically more expensive than equivalent gasoline-powered cars.  But increasing competition, government incentives, and falling prices for lithium and other battery materials is changing the equation.  In fact, the tipping point when electric cars are as cheap or even cheaper than internal combustion cars is likely to happen this year for many cars and, in fact, has already happened for some.

Battery production is ramping up for Tesla, General Motors, Ford, and others, creating cost savings from mass production. Companies manufacturing batteries in the United States are receiving government subsidies as part of a drive to establish a domestic supply chain and reduce dependence on China.  Before anyone cries foul, it should be noted that globally, oil companies received a trillion dollars in subsidies last year.  The Inflation Reduction Act is making it cheaper for automakers to build electric cars (provided they do it in the United States using US materials) and cheaper for consumers to buy them because of tax credits.

Multiple companies have lowered the price of their electric vehicles in recent months, including both the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, which are the best-selling electric cars in the United States. GM’s electric Equinox crossover will start at about $30,000, which is still about $3,400 more than the gas-powered version.  But once the electric vehicle tax credit is figured in, it will actually be cheaper.

Electric cars are already cheaper to own and operate because of the much lower cost of powering with electricity instead of gas as well as the greatly reduced maintenance costs for the vehicles.  Once the purchase price of these cars is less than that of gas-powered cars, the economics becomes a no-brainer.

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Electric Vehicles Could Match Gasoline Cars on Price This Year

Photo, posted May 11, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Coastal Land Reclamation | Earth Wise

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People are artificially expanding the coastlines of cities by extending industrial ports and creating luxury residential waterfronts.  Major cities have added 900 square miles to their coastlines just since 2000. 

A recent study published in the journal Earth’s Future made use of satellite imagery to analyze land changes in 135 cities with populations of at least 1 million.  But population growth is not the only driver of coastal land reclamation.  It is popular in places that are eager to enhance their reputation and promote revenue growth.

At present, coastal land reclamation is most common in the Global South, where many economies are growing. In the past, the Global North dominated the use of coastal land construction.

The largest additions to land area occurred in China, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates.  Port extension is the most common reason for development.  Shanghai alone has added 135 square miles of land.

New land is typically created by piling sediments in the ocean, building cement sea walls and structures to contain sediments or cement, or sometimes filling in wetlands and other shallow areas of water near the coast.  The ecological impacts of reclamation are immense and, unfortunately, are not always considered.  Projects affect both the local ecosystems as well as those of the places where fill materials are obtained.

Industrialization and the need for urban space have driven much coastal reclamation.  Some projects, such as the palm-tree-shaped artificial islands of Dubai, are essentially for prestige.  Some cities, including Shanghai, are building new land in consideration of future sea level rise.

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New Land Creation on Waterfronts Increasing, Study Finds

Photo, posted October 15, 2010, courtesy of Werner Bayer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Dangers Of Melting Glaciers | Earth Wise

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Some of most dramatic evidence that the Earth’s climate is warming is the retreat and even disappearance of mountain glaciers around the world.  2022 was the 35th year in a row that glaciers tracked by the World Glacier Monitoring Service lost rather than gained ice.  Glaciers gain mass through snowfall and lose mass through melting and sublimation (water evaporating directly from solid ice.)  Some glaciers that terminate in lakes or the ocean lose mass through iceberg calving.

In the warming climate, glaciers retreat and meltwater collects at the front of the glacier forming a lake.  Such lakes can suddenly burst and create a fast-flowing Glacier Lake Outburst Flood that can spread over a large distance from the original site – in some cases over 70 miles.  These floods can damage property, infrastructure, and agricultural land and can also be deadly.

The number of glacial lakes has grown rapidly since 1990 as a result of climate change.  According to research by an international team of scientists led by Newcastle University in the UK, the number of people living in glacial lake catchments has increased significantly.

According to the study, 15 million people live within 30 miles of a glacial lake.  The highest danger is in High Mountain Asia – which encompasses the Tibetan Plateau.  That area, which spans from Kyrgyzstan to parts of China, has 9.3 million people potentially at risk.  India and Pakistan have around 5 million exposed people.

Detailed analysis shows that it is not the areas with the largest number or most rapidly growing lakes that are most dangerous.  It is the number of people in proximity to the lakes and their ability to cope with potential floods.

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Glacial flooding threatens millions globally

Photo, posted February 12, 2022, courtesy of David Stanley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Protecting Wetlands | Earth Wise

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Wetlands are distinct ecosystems that are flooded or saturated by water, either permanently or seasonally.  They include mangroves, marshes, swamps, forested wetlands, bogs, wet prairies, and vernal pools.   The feature that most wetlands share is soil or substrate that is at least periodically saturated with or covered by water.

Wetlands are some of the most threatened ecosystems in the world.  While wetlands can be affected by a variety of natural stressors, including erosion, droughts, and storms, human activities have been the major driver of wetland decline. 

But according to a new study by researchers from McGill University in Canada, the global loss of wetland areas since 1700 has likely been overestimated.  The research team calculated that the area of wetland ecosystems around the world has declined 21-35% since 1700 as a result of human activities – far less than the 50-87% decline estimated in other studies.  The study’s focus beyond regions with historically high wetland losses and its avoidance of possibly misleading extrapolations likely resulted in the lower estimate.      

According to the study, which was published in the journal Nature, more than 2.1 million square miles of wetlands have been lost during the past 300 years – an area roughly the size of India.  The five countries with the highest wetland losses are the United States, China, India, Russia and Indonesia. 

But discovering that fewer wetlands have been historically lost than previously thought gives researchers a second chance to protect wetlands.  The findings of the study will help researchers prioritize global conservation and restoration actions.

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A second chance to protect wetlands

Photo, posted February 2, 2005, courtesy of Jan Tik via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Self-Deicing Roads | Earth Wise

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Driving on snowy or icy roads can be pretty dangerous.  That is why roads are salted or coated with sand to provide traction in icy weather.  But excessive use of these substances is bad for the environment and sometimes a storm will blow in before the roads can be coated.

In a paper published in the American Chemical Society Journal ACS Omega, researchers in China describe a method of adding microcapsules filled with a chloride-free salt mixture to the asphalt with which roads are paved.  The idea is to provide the road itself with long-term snow melting capabilities.

The researchers prepared a sodium-acetate salt and combined it with a surfactant, silicon dioxide, sodium bicarbonate, and blast furnace slag, which is a waste product from power plants.  The substances were reduced to a fine powder and then coated with a polymer solution to form tiny microcapsules.  The microcapsules were then used to replace some of the standard mineral filler in asphalt.

Lab experiments showed that the special additive lowered the freezing point of water on the asphalt to -6 degrees Fahrenheit.   The researchers estimated that a 2-inch-thick layer of the anti-icing asphalt would be effective at melting snow for seven or eight years.  A real-world pilot test of the coating on a highway offramp showed that it melted snow that fell on the road whereas an uncoated road required snow removal operations.

According to the researchers, given the cost of materials used for the coating and its potential useful lifetime, it could be a practical and economic enhancement for wintertime snow and ice removal.  Maybe we’ll someday have roads that can fairly often deice themselves. 

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Keeping drivers safe with a road that can melt snow, ice on its own

Photo, posted April 8, 2007, courtesy of the Oregon Department of Transportation via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Sea Level Rise And Global Security | Earth Wise

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Recently, United Nations General Secretary Antonio Guterres addressed the U.N. Security Council on the issue of the security threats created by rising sea levels. In the past, some members of the Security Council – notably Brazil, China, Russia, and at times, India – have argued that the U.N.’s climate program should address such issues and that the Security Council doesn’t have a mandate or the expertise to consider the issue.   The underlying problem is that by addressing the security issues created by rising seas, other sensitive geopolitical issues might come to the forefront.

Guterres’ speech focused on the real possibility that rising seas could disrupt and destabilize global societies unless there is an organized international effort to get ahead of the problem.  Major cities facing serious impacts from rising seas include Cairo, Lagos, Bangkok, Jakarta, Mumbai, Shanghai, Copenhagen, London, Los Angeles, New York, and Buenos Aires, among others.

In all, Guterres said that the danger is most acute for about 900 million people living in low-lying coastal areas.  Some countries, particularly small island developing countries, could disappear entirely.

The world is already facing refugee crises related to politics, warfare, and extreme weather.  The flood of refugees created by rising seas could be biblical in magnitude.

The confluence of climate change and global security is growing steadily.  As the global body primarily responsible for maintaining international peace and security, the U.N. Security Council cannot duck this issue much longer.  It has a critical role to play in building the political will required to address the security challenges looming from rising seas.

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Sea Level Rise Could Drive 1 in 10 People from Their Homes, with Dangerous Implications for International Peace, UN Secretary General Warns

Photo, posted July 19, 2021, courtesy of Face of the World via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Complicated Year For Energy | Earth Wise

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2022 was a complicated year for global energy.  Following its invasion of Ukraine, Russia curtailed natural gas exports to Europe.  This led to large increases in coal burning in many countries, but at the same time led to major new investments in renewable energy.  Projections are that the world will add as much renewable power in the next five years as it did over the previous 20.

In China, severe drought reduced the amount of available hydropower, which drove increased demand for coal in that country.  Between the war in Ukraine and the Chinese drought, coal burning reached an all-time high in 2022, albeit only a 1% uptick for the year.  This increased coal consumption is expected to be only temporary as the accelerating deployment of renewables, energy efficiency, and the use of heat pumps will inexorably reduce coal use.

Globally, governments have earmarked an additional $500 billion for clean energy just since March, bringing the total since the onset of the COVID pandemic to more than $1.2 trillion.  Nearly half of this total investment comes from the U.S. under the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

In light of these energy policies around the world, the International Energy Agency has revised its projections for renewable energy to substantially larger numbers.   Renewables are expected to surpass coal as the world’s largest source of electricity by early 2025. The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has kicked off an extraordinary new phase of rapid renewables growth as countries around the world are seeking to obtain energy security as well as the other benefits of clean energy.

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In 2022, Energy Shocks Spurred Both Unprecedented Coal Burning and Massive Renewable Investments

Photo, posted April 5, 2015, courtesy of Jan Remund via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Tracking Global Forest Changes | Earth Wise

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India is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world.  An estimated 47,000 plant species and 89,000 animal species can be found in India, with more than 10% of each thought to be on the list of threatened species.

India is also one of the 10 most forest-rich countries in the world.  Trees cover approximately 25% of the nation.  But this is still a significant decline from years past.  In fact, between the 1890s and 1990s, a combination of rapid development and resource overexploitation caused India to lose nearly 80% of its native forest area.  Today, as India’s forests continue to disappear, researchers are trying to help preserve what forest remains. 

Using satellite-monitoring data, researchers from The Ohio State University have developed a deep learning algorithm that could provide real-time land use and land cover maps for parts of India. 

The land use monitoring system was trained using satellite data from Norway’s International Climate and Forests Initiative.  By combining this data with a global land cover map produced by Tsinghua University in China, the researcher team’s deep learning model was able to acquire a more detailed type of base map of the area.  Using their model, the researchers were able to process 10 monthly maps.  Their research was recently  presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.   

Using these maps, the researchers were able to detect seasonal shifts across india.  These include changes to barren land, how crop land was affected by monsoons, and the distribution of forests in mountainous regions. 

Understanding the impact of these seasonal changes will help scientists better predict the effects of climate change on forests.

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Using deep learning to monitor India’s disappearing forest cover

Photo, posted January 20, 2013, courtesy of Frontier Official via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewables Will Overtake Coal | Earth Wise

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According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, worldwide growth in renewable power capacity is set to double in the next five years.  In fact, by 2027, the world will add as much renewable power as it did over the previous 20 years.

Of particular significance is that renewables are going to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by early 2025.

The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has had multiple effects on the evolution of the energy system.  While the war has driven a resurgence in fossil fuel consumption in Europe in order to replace gas from Russia, that resurgence is expected to be short-lived.  Instead, the current energy crisis may turn out to be an historic turning point toward a cleaner and more secure energy system.

Soaring fossil-fuel prices triggered by the war have caused many countries to respond by embracing wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles, and electric heat pumps.  In the US, Congress approved more than $370 billion in spending for clean energy technologies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.  China, India, South Korea, and Japan have all increased their national targets for renewable power.   However, heating and cooling buildings with renewable power remains a sector needing larger improvement, according to the energy agency.

Overall, the expansion of renewable power over the next five years is now projected to happen much faster than what was projected just one year ago. The new IEA report revised last year’s forecast for renewables growth by 30% as a result of the introduction of new policies by many of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters.

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Renewables Will Overtake Coal by Early 2025, Energy Agency Says

Photo, posted March 8, 2021, courtesy of Stanze via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

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