carbon budget

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Still Increasing | Earth Wise

July 21, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Recent research has found that the level of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity has reached an all-time high level of nearly 60 billion tons a year. Despite increasing public attention, policy measures, and adoption of green technologies, the pace at which these changes have been taking place has simply not kept up with the ongoing burning of fossil fuels by increasingly industrialized societies. The rate at which greenhouse gas emissions has increased over time has indeed slowed, but emissions need to start decreasing and as soon and as much as possible.

Human-induced warming has reached a ten-year average from 2013-2022 of 1.14 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, up from a 1.07 degrees average between 2010-2019.

Scientists have calculated a carbon budget that describes how much more carbon dioxide can be emitted before global warming exceeds the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius that is widely predicted to lead to potentially catastrophic changes to the climate. In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calculated that the remaining carbon budget was about 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Over the past three years, nearly half of that carbon budget has already been exhausted by the continuing onslaught of carbon emissions.

Researchers describe their study as a timely wake-up call that the pace and scale of climate action to date has been insufficient and that we need to change policy and approaches in light of the latest evidence about the state of the climate system. Time is no longer on our side in trying to stave off the worst effects of climate change.

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Greenhouse gas emissions at ‘an all-time high’, warn scientists

Photo, posted September 18, 2015, courtesy of In Hiatus via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Meeting Climate Goals With Current Energy Infrastructure

September 2, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Paris Climate Agreement set forth a goal to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius as well as a more optimistic (and preferable) goal of keeping the temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees. Reaching either of these goals requires getting to net-zero emissions by the middle of the century.

A new paper, published in Nature, looks at the issue of whether existing power plants and other fossil-fuel-burning equipment (including vehicles) can continue to operate until they age out of functionality, or whether they need to be retired early.

The results of the study are that future emissions from existing facilities would take up the entire carbon budget needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and almost 2/3 of the budget needed to keep warming below 2 degrees over the next 30 years.

So, the good news is that we can still avoid a 2-degree rise without having to shut down all the existing power plants early. But we would definitely have to stop building new things with smokestacks and tailpipes that dump CO₂ into the atmosphere.

That good news is tempered by the fact that the number of fossil fuel-burning power plants and vehicles in the world has increased dramatically over the past decade, spurred by rapid economic and industrial development in China and India. In fact, China is predicted to produce more than 40% of all the carbon emissions over the next 30 years.

The 2-degree climate goal is not at all the most desirable result. The 1.5-degree target would be far better for the climate. But if the world is to achieve it, there will be dramatic changes needed in the existing infrastructure – either shutting it down or retrofitting it to drastically reduce emissions.

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Two-Degree Climate Goal Attainable Without Early Infrastructure Retirement

Photo, posted March 5, 2010, courtesy of Tennessee Valley Authority via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Air Travel And Global Warming

September 25, 2017 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Air travel is pretty carbon intensive. For those of us who take plane trips, it represents a substantial part of our individual carbon footprints. It isn’t that plane travel is inefficient fuel-wise on a miles-per-gallon-per-passenger basis compared with driving, for example. It is just that we go so much farther on planes. Currently, aviation accounts for only a few percent of overall carbon emissions, but that is changing for two reasons.