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And the heat goes on

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August 2024 was the hottest August in the 175-years for which there are global records.  The last full month of summer also wrapped up the Northern Hemisphere‘s warmest summer on record.

The average global surface temperature in August was 62.39 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 2.29 degrees above the 20th century August average.  Furthermore, August was the 15th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures, which is a record in and of itself.

Regionally, Europe and Oceana had their warmest August on record.  Asia had its second-warmest August, and Africa and North America had their third-warmest August.

The summer in the Northern Hemisphere was a record-breaker with a temperature 2.74 degrees Fahrenheit above average.  Thinking about climate goals, this is 1.52 degrees Celsius above average, which is a troubling amount.  Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, where it was winter in the June-to-August period, it was also the warmest ever with a temperature 1.73 degrees Fahrenheit above average.

Globally, this year to date ranks as the warmest ever recorded with a temperature 2.3 degrees above the 20th-century average.  With a few months to go, the prediction is that there is a 97% chance that 2024 will rank as the world’s warmest year on record.

Other aspects of the global climate system were consistent with these record-breaking temperatures.  The global ocean surface temperature for June through August was the warmest on record. 

These monthly climate reports have an unfortunate similarity:  the heat goes on.

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Earth had its hottest August in 175-year record

Photo, posted June 22, 2021, courtesy of Vicky Brock via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The doomsday glacier

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The Thwaites Glacier is an enormous Antarctic Glacier.  Its area is larger than that of Florida – in fact, larger than 30 other U.S. states – and it is melting.  It has been retreating for 80 years but has accelerated its pace in the past 30.  Its shedding of ice into the ocean already contributes 4% of global sea level rise.  If it collapsed entirely, it would raise sea levels by more than 2 feet.  For this reason, it has been dubbed the Doomsday Glacier.

A team of scientists has been studying it since 2018 in order to better understand what is happening within the glacier. They sent a torpedo-shaped robot to the glacier’s grounding line, which is the point at which the ice rises up from the seabed and starts to float.  The underside of Thwaites is insulated by a thin layer of cold water.  However, at the grounding line, tidal action is pumping warmer sea water at high pressure as far as six miles under the ice.  This is disrupting the insulating layer and is speeding up the retreat of the glacier.

The potential collapse of the glacier is not even the only massive risk it poses.  It also acts like a cork, holding back the vast Antarctic ice sheet.  If that ice sheet were ever to collapse, sea levels could rise 10 feet.

A critical unanswered question is whether the ultimate collapse of Thwaites Glacier is already irreversible.  There are regular heavy snowfalls that occur in the Antarctic which help replenish ice loss.  Whether nations’ progress in slowing climate change can change the balance between ice accumulation and ice loss on the glacier remains to be seen.

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‘Doomsday’ glacier set to melt faster and swell seas as world heats up, say scientists

Photo, posted January 3, 2022, courtesy of Felton Davis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The hottest day on record

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There have been numerous temperature records set in recent years.  Apart from record high temperatures for many places around the world, there were 13 consecutive monthly temperature records set for the planet since the previous summer.

According to NASA data, July 22, 2024, was the hottest day on record.  July 21st and 23rd also exceeded the previous daily record, which was set in July last year.  The new record was 17.16 degrees Celsius, or about 63 degrees Fahrenheit.

We are not used to thinking in terms of the global average temperature.  That is the number that keeps climbing and that climate goals seek to keep from getting too high.  The global average temperature is about 59 degrees Fahrenheit.  So, on July 22nd, the Earth was about 4 degrees warmer than usual.  That may not seem like much, but it takes an enormous amount of energy to raise the temperature of the planet by that amount.

The NASA report shows the global daily temperature throughout the year for the years 1980 to 2024.  It clearly shows how much warmer temperatures are now compared with the previous decades.

In many places, people experienced persistent hot weather during the month of July. New York’s Capital Region saw relentless hot and humid weather.  There were 9 days with high temperatures in the 90s.   July in Albany had a monthly mean temperature of 77.3 degrees, which was the highest in any current resident’s lifetime.  This is more than 4 degrees higher than the average over the past 30 years.  The last time the average temperature was over 77 was in 1887.  July was hot.

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NASA Data Shows July 22 Was Earth’s Hottest Day on Record

Photo, posted October 22, 2016, courtesy of Susanne Nilsson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Species range and climate change

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The geographic range of a particular plant or animal species is the area in which it can be found during its lifetime.  The range of most species is limited by climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, humidity, and wind.  Any changes in the magnitude or variability of these factors will impact the species living there. 

For example, a species sensitive to temperature may respond to a warmer climate by moving to cooler locations at higher latitudes or elevations. 

But not all species are able to move at the same speed.  According to an international research team led by scientists from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, non-native species are expanding their ranges many times faster than native species.

The researchers found that land-based plant and animal species need to be shifting their ranges by about two miles per year just to keep up with the rapid pace of the changing climate.  Marine species need to be moving about 1.7 miles per year.  However, native species are only managing to move about one mile per year on average.  

Non-native species, on the other hand, are spreading nearly 22 miles each year on their own.  Additionally, when the role humans play in assisting the spread of non-native species is factored in, the rate jumps to a whopping 1,170 miles per year.  This is more than 1,000 times faster than the rate at which native species are spreading.   

The researchers conclude that there is no chance for native species to keep up with climate change without human help.  Assisted migration needs to be on the table if native plants and animals are to survive.   

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Non-Native Plants and Animals Expanding Ranges 100 Times Faster than Native Species

Photo, posted April 10, 2011, courtesy of Bri Weldon via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Cloud brightening

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Solar geoengineering is a type of climate intervention:  deliberate actions designed to affect the climate.  There are several ways to try to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the surface of the earth and all of them are controversial.  Perhaps the least controversial approach is cloud brightening.

The idea is based on something called the Twomey effect, which is that large numbers of small droplets in the atmosphere reflect more sunlight than small numbers of large droplets.  Spraying vast quantities of minuscule aerosols into the sky, thereby forming many small droplets, could change the reflective properties of clouds.  If clouds are more reflective, then less sunlight reaches the surface, and the temperature goes down.

This form of geoengineering is thought to be less risky because it can be performed on a localized basis and can use relatively benign materials such as sea salt. 

In early April, scientists from the University of Washington started testing a device that sprays tiny sea-salt particles into the air from the deck of a decommissioned aircraft carrier in Alameda, California.  The test was simply to see whether the machine propelled a mist of suitable size.

Within two weeks, Alameda officials ordered a stop to the experiment, citing potential health and environmental risks.  After a month-long investigation, Alameda ruled that the experiment does not generate a measurable risk to health, wildlife, or the environment.

But before more ambitious experiments take place, there are potential side effects of cloud brightening that need to be studied.  It may turn out to be a useful tool in fighting global warming, but in any case, such technology should not be viewed as a substitute for moving away from fossil fuels.

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A Test of Cloud-Brightening Machines Poses No Health Risk, Officials Say

Photo, posted September 8, 2011, courtesy of Justin Ladia via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Carbon dioxide and wildfires

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Climate change is a key factor in the increasing risk and extent of wildfires.  Wildfires require the alignment of several factors, including humidity, temperature, and the lack of moisture in fuels, such as trees, shrubs, and grasses.  All of these factors have strong ties to climate variability and climate change.

While the global surge in wildfires is often attributed to hotter and drier conditions, a new study by researchers from the University of California – Riverside has found that increasing levels of a greenhouse gas may be an even bigger factor. 

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, carbon dioxide is driving an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires by fueling the growth of plants that become kindling.

Centuries of burning fossil fuels to produce heat, electricity and to power engines has added alarming amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.  In fact, atmospheric CO2 levels are measuring more than 420 parts per million, which is a level not seen on earth for 14-16 million years. 

Plants require carbon dioxide, along with sunlight and water, for photosynthesis.  But rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are driving an increase in plant photosynthesis – an effect known as the carbon fertilization effect.  This effect can make plants grow bigger and faster. 

Warming and drying are important fire factors.  These are the conditions that make the extra plant mass more flammable.  But the study found that the increase in fires during hotter seasons is driven by the CO2-fueled growth of plants.   

The researchers hope their findings will urge policymakers to focus on reducing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

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CO2 worsens wildfires by helping plants grow

Current carbon dioxide levels last seen 14 million years ago

Photo, posted January 17, 2024, courtesy of Jennifer Myslivy, BLM Fire/NIFC via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

An active hurricane season

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st until November 30th.  Forecasters at Colorado State University have issued forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity since 1984 based on the pioneering work of Professor William Gray.  This year’s forecast, issued in April, predicts a higher-than-average number of Atlantic storms.  In fact, it may be one of the most active seasons on record.

On average, there are 14 named storms each season.  This year, the prediction is for 23 of them.  On average, there are 7 hurricanes each season.  This year, the prediction is for 11. The prediction is for 5 major hurricanes among them.  These predictions are among the highest on record, although in 2020 they predicted 12 hurricanes.  In fact, that year there were 14 that actually took place.

Among the factors at play are that the El Niño that was occurring last year has dissipated and there is a good chance of a La Niña forming, which suppresses upper-level winds thereby making conditions ideal for hurricane formation and intensification.  But the overarching factor is global warming which is driving ocean temperature rise.  The water in the Atlantic, especially in the eastern Atlantic where most hurricanes form, has seen record-breaking warmth.  More warm water means more chances for storms.

Other research groups echo the predictions from Colorado State and, in some cases, see ever greater chances for an extremely active hurricane season.  The University of Pennsylvania forecast calls for 33 named storms.

The overall forecast is for a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean. 

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Weather tracker: US experts predict one of most active hurricane seasons on record

Photo, posted September 5, 2017, courtesy of NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Artificial reefs

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The coral reefs that surround tropical islands are a refuge for a wide variety of marine life and also form a natural buffer against stormy seas.  The changing climate is bleaching coral reefs and breaking them down.  Extreme weather events are becoming more common and are threatening coastal communities with flooding and erosion.

Researchers at MIT are designing architected reefs – sustainable offshore structures that mimic the wave-buffering effects of natural reefs and can also provide habitats for fish and other marine life.

There are already artificial reefs in a number of places used to protect coastlines.  These are typically made from sunken ships, retired oil and gas platforms, and even assemblies of concrete, metal, car tires, and stones.  Generally, it takes quite a lot of material to form an effective barrier to waves.

The MIT group has developed a cylindrical structure surrounded by four rudder-like slats.  Their experiments have shown that when this structure stands in the way of a wave, it efficiently breaks the wave and creates turbulent jets that dissipate the energy in the wave.  The engineers calculated that the new design could reduce as much wave energy as existing artificial reefs but use 10 times less material.

Based on the initial experiments with lab-scale prototypes, these artificial reefs would reduce the energy of incoming waves by more than 95%.

Coral reefs are only found in tropical waters, whereas these artificial reefs don’t depend on temperature and could be placed along any coastline for protection.  In a time of rising seas and increasingly frequent storms, these artificial reefs may be just what coastlines need.

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Artificial reef designed by MIT engineers could protect marine life, reduce storm damage

Photo, posted December 9, 2010, courtesy of Phoenix Wolf-Ray via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Winegrowing regions and climate change

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Grapes grown to make wine are sensitive to climate conditions including temperatures and amount of rainfall.  The warming climate is already having visible effects on yields, grape composition, and the quality of wine.  This has significant consequences on the geography of wine production and is of major concern for the $350 billion global industry.

Winegrowing regions are mostly at the mid-latitudes where temperatures are warm enough to allow grapes to ripen but not excessively hot.  The climates are relatively dry so that fungal diseases are not rampant.

Because of the warming climate, harvesting in most vineyards now begins two or three weeks earlier than it did 40 years ago and this affects the grapes and the resultant wines.  Temperature changes affect acidity, wine alcohol, and aromatic signatures.

If global temperature rise crosses the 2-degree level, 90% of all traditional winegrowing areas throughout Spain, Italy, Greece, and southern California may become unable to produce high-quality wines.  Conversely, areas of northern France, the states of Washington and Oregon, British Columbia, and Tasmania will see improved conditions for producing quality wines. 

As the climate warms, winegrowers face new challenges such as the emergence of new diseases and pests as well as an increasing number of extreme weather events.  Wine producers are using more drought-resistant grape varieties and are adopting management methods that better preserve soil water.

The changing climate poses many threats to the quality of wines produced in traditional vineyards.  In the future, the wine industry may look very different in terms of where and how the best wines are produced. 

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A global map of how climate change is changing winegrowing regions

Photo, posted November 14, 2008, courtesy of Curtis Foreman via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Rising fossil fuel emissions

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Almost every nation in the world has pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.  There is expanding use of renewable energy sources and growing numbers of electric cars.  But despite all this, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose again in 2023, reaching record levels.

The world’s population continues to grow and nations with large, rapidly growing populations are becoming increasingly industrialized and are embracing more and more of the trappings of modern life.  As a result, the global burning of oil, coal, and natural gas is increasing.

Analysis of 2023 date shows that emissions from fossil fuels rose 1.1 percent compared to 2022 levels.  The total fossil fuel emissions in 2023 was 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide. 

Clearly, the world continues to head in the wrong direction in order to limit global warming.  The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 278 parts per million in 1750 – considered to be the start of the industrial era – to 420 parts per million in 2023.

The rise in heat-trapping carbon dioxide along with other greenhouse gases such as methane is the primary reason that the planet’s temperature is continuing to rise.  The average global surface temperature in 2023 was 1.2 degrees Celsius – or 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit – higher than it was in the NASA baseline period of 1951-1980.  Last year was the hottest year on record.  Unfortunately, the rise in global ocean temperature was even larger, compounding the effects of global warming.

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Emissions from Fossil Fuels Continue to Rise

Photo, posted June 22, 2020, courtesy of John Morton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A wet January

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For the first time in a while, the monthly report on the US climate did not feature record-setting heat.  The average January temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 1.6 degrees above the average, but that only ranked it in the middle third of the climate record.  The diminishing El Niño probably helped.  On the other hand, the global average temperature in January was again the warmest on record – the 8th consecutive record-setting month.

But January still managed to be atypical weatherwise in the U.S. in that the nation’s average precipitation across the country was 3.18 inches – nearly an inch above average – which made it the 10th wettest January in NOAA’s 130-year climate record.  Thirteen states experienced top-ten rainfall amounts.  In late January, record rainfall and flooding hit the southern plains, especially in parts of Texas and Louisiana.  Meanwhile, early February brought historic rainfall and mountain snow to California with a second round later in the month.

All of the rainfall in January has made some difference to drought conditions across the country.  On January 30th, about 23.5% of the contiguous U.S. was In drought, which was 9.5% lower than the beginning of the month.  However, drought conditions expanded or intensified across northern parts of the Rockies and Plains among a few other places.

Outside of the lower-48, Alaska continued to experience historic snowfall conditions.  Between October and the end of January, Anchorage had over 100 inches of snow.

We are living in an era of weather extremes.

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The nation just saw its 10th-wettest January on record

Photo, posted February 8, 2017, courtesy of Paxson Woelber via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why was 2023 so hot?

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Five separate weather-tracking organizations have proclaimed 2023 as the hottest year on record. They all agreed that 2023 beat the previous record-holder – 2016 – by a wide margin.  Organizations that use a pre-industrial baseline of 1850-1900 found that 2023 was 1.45 to 1.48 degrees Celsius above the baseline.  But what caused 2023 – especially the second half of it – to be so hot?

Scientists believe that there were multiple factors that contributed to the record-breaking heat.

First and foremost is the long-term rise in greenhouse gases.  Over 100 years of burning fossil fuels along with major changes in land use (particularly deforestation) have led to a significant rise in the heat-trapping blanket of the gases in the atmosphere.

On top of this long-term trend, the return of the El Niño condition in the Pacific in May helped temperatures rise further.

At the same time, the tropical Pacific was not the only ocean that was hotter than normal.  The global sea surface temperature set new records in 2023 and there were multiple marine heat waves.  Heat trapped by the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, raising their temperatures.

Another factor is the quantity of aerosols in the atmosphere.  Many of these aerosols actually cool the atmosphere by reflecting the sun’s light back into space.  Society’s efforts to reduce air pollution and improve air quality have led to decreasing levels of aerosols.

2024 started with some seriously cold weather in some places but predictions are that this year will be roughly as warm as 2023 and possibly warmer given that the dynamics driving last year’s weather are all still in place.

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Five Factors to Explain the Record Heat in 2023

Photo, posted February 22, 2016, courtesy of Jasmin Toubi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The end of a supergiant iceberg

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In 2017, a supergiant iceberg known as A-68 calved from the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica. In 2020, it drifted close to South Georgia, a British island in the South Atlantic Ocean, and then began to break up.  This iceberg was enormous – nearly the size of Delaware.  When it started to break up, it released huge quantities of fresh, cold meltwater in a relatively small region.

Scientists from the British Antarctic Survey and the University of Sheffield have studied how the melting iceberg has affected the temperature and the salinity of the ocean surface in the area.  They found that the water near the surface was 8 degrees Fahrenheit colder than normal and the water only had about two-thirds of its normal saltiness.

The effects from the melted iceberg eventually extended well beyond South Georgia as the colder, less-salty water was carried by ocean currents to form a long plume that stretched more than 600 miles across the South Atlantic.  It also took several months to disappear.

The calving of this massive iceberg provided a unique opportunity for scientists to study the impact of iceberg melting on surface ocean conditions.  A-68 was one of the largest and most studied of all icebergs.  The study has shown that each individual melting giant iceberg can have widespread and long-lasting impacts on ocean conditions, which has consequences for the plant and animal life that lives there.

Climate change is likely to lead to more giant iceberg calving in the future.  It is important to monitor these events to assess their future impacts on ocean circulation, biology, and even seafloor geology.

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Supergiant iceberg makes surrounding ocean surface colder and less salty

Photo, posted October 24, 2018, courtesy of Jefferson Beck / NASA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Moisture swing carbon capture

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As the world grapples with limiting the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, there is a growing need to capture the carbon dioxide that is emitted as well as preventing it from being emitted in the first place.  Carbon capture can be accomplished at the source of emissions (such as power plants) or it can be done by taking it out of the atmosphere.  The latter is called “direct air capture”.

It is not at all clear whether direct air capture can be accomplished on a scale that would really make a difference and at an acceptable cost either in dollars or energy expended.  But if it can be done that way, it would be a major tool in combatting climate change.

Direct air capture technology generally makes use of sorbent materials whose capacity to capture carbon dioxide and later release it is a function of temperature.  The process requires significant amounts of energy to release the carbon dioxide that has been captured. 

New research from Northwestern University makes use of the “moisture-swing” technique which uses materials whose ability to capture and release carbon dioxide depends on humidity rather than temperature.  While it takes some amount of energy to humidify the volume of air containing the sorbent material, it is very small compared to temperature-driven systems. 

There are many groups working with moisture-swing technology, but the Northwestern Group has identified a number of new sorbent materials with superior properties.

The fundamental questions of scalability and cost remain, but moisture-swing is a promising approach to direct air capture.  If carbon dioxide can be pulled out of the atmosphere in large volumes, it can be concentrated and stored or converted into useful products.

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Pulling carbon dioxide right out of the air

Photo, posted May 15, 2020, courtesy of James Watt via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Lots of female turtles

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Green sea turtles were listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1978.  Since that time, there have been conservation measures put in place in many locations.  One such place is Florida, where restrictions on beachfront development and careful monitoring of turtle nests has helped to get hatchlings safely into the water.  A gill net ban in 1995 sharply reduced the number of young turtles killed by fishing gear.

All of this has resulted in what is described as an explosion in turtle populations in Florida.  Volunteers monitoring the 2023 nesting season on Florida’s beaches have counted more than 74,000 nests.  That beats the previous record – set in 2017 – by an incredible 40%.

Unfortunately, this does not represent a guaranteed great future for the species.  Sea turtles are particularly sensitive to the warming climate.  The sex of a baby sea turtle is not determined by DNA, but rather by the temperature of the sand in which its egg develops.  Cooler temperatures mean more males; warmer ones mean more females.

In recent years, the proportion of male green sea turtles has dwindled substantially.  In the past few seasons, between 87 percent and 100 percent of the hatchlings tested in Florida have been female.

In the short term, the skewed sex ratio might be a boon for the species.  Lots of females laying lots of eggs means lots of turtles.  Sea turtles don’t reach sexual maturity until their twenties or thirties.  So, for the next few decades, there are likely to be growing numbers of turtle nests.  But down the line, there is going to be a real problem.  Where will for all the female turtles find the mates to populate the species in the future?

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Florida Turtle Nests Are Recovering. When They Hatch, Expect Mostly Girls.

Photo, posted October 5, 2011, courtesy of Keenan Adams / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Rivers And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Our planet is heating up.  Scientists have concluded that the changing climate is primarily the result of increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.  Some of the effects of global climate change include thawing permafrost, rising seas, intensifying storms and wildfires, and warming oceans.   

According to a new study led by researchers from Penn State University, rivers are warming and losing oxygen even faster than oceans.  The study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that warming occurred in 87% and oxygen loss occurred in 70% of the nearly 800 rivers studied.

The research team projects that within the next 70 years some river systems, especially those in the American South, will experience such low oxygen levels that the rivers could “induce acute death” for some fish species and threaten the aquatic diversity of river ecosystems. 

The research team used artificial intelligence and deep learning to analyze water quality data from nearly 800 rivers across the U.S. and central Europe.  The researchers found that rivers are warming up and deoxygenating faster than oceans, which could have serious implications for both aquatic life and humans.

While climate change has led to warming and oxygen loss in oceans and lakes around the world, the researchers did not expect to find warming and deoxygenation in shallower, flowing rivers.  Since life in water depends on temperature and dissolved oxygen, the researchers hope this study serves as a wake up call.  Warming and deoxygenating rivers have significant implications for water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems worldwide.

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Rivers are rapidly warming, losing oxygen; aquatic life at risk

Photo, posted June 2, 2017, courtesy of Francisco Anzola via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Deadly Heatwaves On The Rise | Earth Wise

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The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

A new study by the ETH Institute in Zurich has found that the risk of fatal heatwaves has risen sharply over the past 20 years, and in the future, such extreme weather will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase, particularly in Europe.  According to a paper published in Nature Medicine, more than 61,000 deaths in Europe could be blamed on the heat during the summer of 2022, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent.  When the readings from this summer are analyzed, that record is likely to be surpassed.

Heatwaves lead to excess deaths due to dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular collapse.  They are particularly deadly for the elderly, the sick, and the poor.  The ETH researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 748 cities and communities in 47 countries.   They determined the relationship between increased temperature and excess mortality.  Their models look at how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), and both 1.5 degrees (the limit sought by the Paris Agreement) and 2 degrees.

Even with the current global temperature, heatwaves that were a once-in-a-century event are now expected to occur every 10 years.  With 2 degrees of warming, such heatwaves could happen every 2 to 5 years.

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Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more deadly

Photo, posted July 22, 2009, courtesy of Matt McGee via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Upcycling Plastic Waste | Earth Wise

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People have generated 8 billion tons of plastic waste over time and less than 10% of it has been recycled.  Millions of tons of it escapes into the oceans.  Plastic piles up virtually everywhere on earth.

There are many approaches to dealing with the plastic waste problem and no one of them is a magic bullet.  Engineers at Stanford University have investigated the prospects for upcycling plastic waste for use in infrastructure like buildings and roads.

They used a mix of computer modeling, scientific research, experimental and field data to analyze the potential for using plastic waste in infrastructure.

Among their findings is that recycled glass fiber reinforced polymer composite – which is a tensile plastic commonly used in car, boat, and plane parts – is a promising material for reuse in buildings. 

Roads in which waste plastic is melted down and mixed with conventional paving materials are becoming more common around the world.  India has installed over 60,000 miles of these roads.  Studies show that roads containing waste plastic have the potential to perform better than conventional roads.  They can last longer, are more durable, can tolerate wide temperature swings, and are more resistant to water damage, cracking, and potholes.  Such roads rely less upon virgin fossil resources, which is obviously advantageous.

Upcycling plastic waste in infrastructure is attracting increasing interest because it creates value from something that is strictly a liability and may end up having regulatory advantages as societies move toward more environmentally friendly and sustainable policies.

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Can we use plastic waste to build roads, buildings, and more?

Photo, posted October 7, 2022, courtesy of the Grand Canyon National Park via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Marine Heat Waves | Earth Wise

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In late July, the ocean temperature measured in Florida Bay, between the southern end of the Florida mainland and the Florida Keys, was 101.1 degrees Fahrenheit, a possible world record for sea surface temperature.  There is no official record keeping for ocean temperatures, but the highest previous reading ever reported was 99.7 degrees in the middle of Kuwait Bay in 2020. 

What is going on is a marine heat wave and marine heat waves can last for weeks, months, or even years.  The current Gulf of Mexico marine heat wave has been present for several months, beginning in February or March.  Experimental forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the extreme ocean temperatures in the area may persist through at least October.

The ocean absorbs 90% of the excess heat associated with global warming.  Therefore, marine heat waves all over the planet are becoming warmer over time.  The current marine heat wave would likely have occurred even without climate change, but because of it, the event is extraordinarily warm.

Marine heat waves cause stress to corals and other marine ecosystems.  Exposure to extreme temperatures for long periods of time causes corals to eject the algae that live inside of them, resulting in white or pale coral.  This coral bleaching leaves the coral without food and will ultimately kill it.

In general, extreme heat can be destructive and deadly for marine ecosystems.  A massive marine heat wave known as “the Blob” took hold in 2013-2016 in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and led to an ecological cascade of fishery collapses, toxic algal blooms, and record numbers of humpback whale entanglements.

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The ongoing marine heat waves in U.S. waters, explained

Photo, posted December 25, 2016, courtesy of Paul Asman and Jill Lenoble via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Phoenix Is Frying | Earth Wise

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The mythical Phoenix is a bird that repeatedly dies in a fire of its own making.  During July, the five million inhabitants of greater Phoenix Arizona may have felt like they were reliving that myth as multiple temperature records were shattered in a massive heatwave.

On June 30, the high temperature in Phoenix was 110 degrees.  From then on, the daily highs were relentlessly at or above 110 degrees, topping out at 119 on July 20.  The previous record for consecutive days at or above 110 was 18 set in June 1974.  The streak continued all the way until July 31, when incoming desert monsoons resulted in the high temperature dropping to 107 degrees – ending the streak at 31 days.  Along the way, there were 16 days with temperatures at or above 115 degrees. 

During the month, there were 17 consecutive days when the lowest temperature in Phoenix was at least 90 degrees.  The previous record for that was 7 days, set in 2020.  Because of these lofty low temperatures, July was also the hottest month in terms of average temperature with a reading well above 102 degrees.  It was the first time that the average temperature has ever been in three digits.  The previous record was 99.1 degrees in 2020.

Phoenix is an extreme case, but it was not alone in having a hot July.  Globally, it was the hottest July on record that included major heat waves in the U.S., Mexico, China, southern Europe, and elsewhere.  The daily record for the hottest average temperature on Earth ever measured was also broken several times during the month.

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Phoenix heat wave is shattering temperature records

Photo, posted September 22, 2022, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

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WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)