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scientific consensus

It Really Is Greenhouse Gases | Earth Wise

December 26, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The scientific consensus that human-generated carbon dioxide is changing the climate began to form in the 1980s. 

For a long time, the changes to the climate were simply denied.  After a while, as those changes became increasingly hard to ignore, the argument shifted to the changes being real but not caused by anything people are doing.  The multi-trillion-dollar fossil fuel industry was strongly motivated to focus attention away from the association between carbon dioxide and climate change.

The greenhouse gas effect has been known since the 19th century.  It isn’t just real; it is essential to life on earth.  Without sufficient levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to trap some of the sun’s heat, the earth would be an ice planet incapable of supporting much in the way of life.  But there can be too much of a good thing.

Naysayers continue to grasp at alternative explanations for the warming planet rather than the inconvenient truth.  Some people try to claim that it is the release of heat from all our energy-generating activities -power plants, heaters and air conditioners, vehicles, and so on – that is warming the planet.

That issue has been studied in detail.  Human activity does generate a lot of heat and, technically speaking, that heat does help warm the planet.  However, the sun dumps 10,000 times more heat on the earth than all of human energy production added together.  Just the normal fluctuations in solar energy are 10 times larger than everything we do put together.

What is increasingly warming the planet is not the continuing energy striking the earth; it is primarily the fact that growing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are trapping more and more of that heat and preventing it from escaping into space.

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Integrating anthropogenic heat flux with global climate models

Photo, posted August 25, 2009, courtesy of Gerald Simmons via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Change Is Not Natural

July 5, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

It has been the overwhelming consensus of the scientific community for a long time that human activity and other external factors are responsible for the continuing rise in global temperature.  Despite this widespread agreement, there have been those who argue that natural ocean cycles might be influencing global warming over the course of multiple decades.

A new study, published in the Journal of Climate, provides an answer to the question of how much influence natural cycles might have, and that answer is very little to none.

The study looked at observed ocean and land temperature data since 1850 and, apart from human-induced factors such as greenhouse gas concentrations, took into account other occurrences such as volcanic eruptions, solar activity, and air pollution peaks.  The findings demonstrated that slow-acting ocean cycles do not explain the long-term changes in global temperatures.

Based on the study, the researchers can state with confidence that human factors like greenhouse gas emissions and particulate pollution, along with year-to-year changes caused by natural phenomena like volcanic eruptions or El Niño, are sufficient to explain virtually all the long-term changes in temperature.  The idea that the oceans could have been driving the climate either in a colder or warmer direction for multiple decades in the past and therefore will do so in the future is unlikely to be correct.

A number of previous studies have compared flawed observations with flawed modeling results to claim that naturally-occurring ocean cycles have played a large role in global temperatures.  The new study shows that such cycles have little influence on the climate.  Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is really what we need to do.

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Global temperature change attributable to external factors, confirms new study

Photo, posted November 13, 2007, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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