prediction

A Devastating Threat To Coral Reef Habitats | Earth Wise

March 25, 2020 By EarthWise 2 Comments

According to new research from scientists at the University of Hawaii Manoa, the warming and acidifying oceans could wipe out nearly all existing coral reef habitats by 2100. In fact, the researchers predict that 70-90% of coral reefs will disappear over the next 20 years alone as a consequence of climate change and pollution.

Some organizations are attempting to save coral habitats by transplanting live corals from labs to reefs. The idea is that the new young corals will help revive the reefs. But after mapping where such restoration efforts would be most successful, the research indicates that there will be little to no suitable habitat remaining for corals by 2100. Small portions of Baja California and the Red Sea are two of the sites that could remain viable by 2100, although neither are ideal due to their proximity to rivers. Sea surfaces temperature and acidity are two of the most important factors in determining the viability of a site for restoration.

Warming ocean waters stress corals, which cause them to expel the symbiotic algae living inside them. This turns the often colorful corals white – an event known as coral bleaching. Bleached corals are not dead corals, but they are at a higher risk of dying. These coral bleaching events are becoming more frequent as a result of the changing climate.

The projected increases in human pollution will only play a minor role in the future elimination of coral reef habitats. Ironically, that’s because humans have already caused such extensive damage to coral reefs that there aren’t many locations left to impact.

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Warming, acidic oceans may nearly eliminate coral reef habitats by 2100

Photo, posted September 28, 2009, courtesy of Matt Kieffer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Predicting Lightning Strikes

November 19, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Lightning is one of the most unpredictable phenomena in nature. Approximately 100 lightning bolts strike earth’s surface every second, and each lightning bolt can contain up to one billion volts of electricity. Lightning regularly kills both people and animals and sets homes and forests on fire. It’s also been known to ground airplanes.

Researchers at EPFL – a research institute and university in Switzerland – have developed a novel way to predict where and when lightning will strike. The system relies on a combination of standard data from weather stations and artificial intelligence to predict lightning strikes to the nearest 10 to 30 minutes and within a radius of less than 20 miles. The simple and inexpensive system was outlined in a research paper recently published in Climate and Atmospheric Science, a Nature partner journal.

According to researchers, the current systems for predicting lightning strikes are slow, expensive, and complex, relying on external data acquired by satellite and radar. The new inexpensive system from EPFL uses real time data that can be obtained from any weather station, meaning it can cover remote regions that are out of radar and satellite range and where communication networks are lacking. The quick predictions from the system allow alerts to be issued before a storm has even formed.

The system uses a machine-learning algorithm that’s been trained to recognize conditions that lead to lightning. The researchers took into account atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, among other things. After training the algorithm, the system was able to predict lightning strikes accurately nearly 80% of the time.

This system is a simple way to predict a complex phenomenon.

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Using AI to predict where and when lightning will strike

Photo, posted December 14, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Science And False Beliefs

January 21, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There are sizeable numbers of people who hold to beliefs that run counter to overwhelming contrary evidence. Flat Earthers and Holocaust deniers are well-known examples and, more recently, people – some of them in high places – who reject the evidence for climate change.

New research published in the journal Open Mind by developmental psychologists at UC Berkeley suggest that feedback, rather than hard evidence, boosts people’s sense of certainty when learning new things or trying to tell right from wrong. People’s beliefs are more likely to be reinforced by the positive or negative reactions they are exposed to than by logic, reasoning, and scientific data.

People’s learning habits can limit one’s intellectual horizons. According to the study, if you think you know a lot about something, even though you don’t, you’re less likely to be curious enough to explore the topic further and will fail to learn how little you know.

This phenomenon plays out in social media and cable-news echo chambers and explains how some people are easily duped by charlatans. Receiving positive feedback for what they are saying can make people believe they know more than they actually do. This confidence makes them less likely to seek out and learn more information about the subject, as well as take into account contradicting opinions or facts.

Another factor is that what influences people’s certainty is that their confidence tends to depend on what they heard most recently rather than on long-term cumulative data. A few pieces of recent information tend to get much more attention than an extensive body of data. If a crazy theory is able to make a correct prediction a few times, people tend to get fixed in their belief in that theory and be less open to other information.

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Here’s Why People Advocate False Beliefs, Conspiracy Theories Despite Evidence

Photo, posted February 2, 2007, courtesy of Tim J. Keegan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Breakthrough In Animal Identification

December 25, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Researchers from the University of Wyoming have developed a computer model that can identify wild animals in camera-trap photographs with remarkable accuracy and efficiency.

This breakthrough in artificial intelligence (AI), detailed in a paper recently published in the scientific journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, represents a significant advancement in the study and conservation of wildlife. According to the paper’s authors, “the ability to rapidly identify millions of images from camera traps can fundamentally change the way ecologists design and implement wildlife studies.”

This study builds on previous research from the university in which a computer model analyzed 3.2 million images captured by camera traps in Africa. The A-I technique called deep learning categorized animal images at a 96.6% accuracy rate. This was the same accuracy rate as teams of human volunteers achieved, but the computer model worked at a much more rapid pace.

In the latest study, UW researchers trained a deep neural network on a powerful computer cluster to classify wildlife species using 3.37 million camera-trap images of 27 different animal species. The model was tested on nearly 375,000 images at a rate of about 2,000 images per minute. It achieved a 97.6% accuracy rate, which is likely the highest accuracy to date in using machine learning for wildlife image classification.

Artificial intelligence has been used in environmental science in other ways as well. For example, AI has been used to increase agricultural yields in farm fields and to help predict extreme weather.

Maybe artificial intelligence can prove to be a game changer for the environment.

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Researchers Successfully Train Computers to Identify Animals in Photos

Photo, posted January 8, 2012, courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Traffic Jams In The Jet Stream

July 13, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Many extreme weather events are associated with unusual behavior by the jet stream. Jet streams are the global air currents that circle the earth. The meandering and speed changes in the jet stream affect weather and also play a big role in how long it takes aircraft to make their way across the country. The behavior that leads to extreme weather events is known as “blocking” in which the meandering jet stream stops weather systems from moving eastward.

Endangered Chocolate

February 14, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There are many scary stories floating about with regard to dire potential consequences of climate change, but one that should really strike fear into many of our hearts is the prediction from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that cacao plants are likely to go extinct as early as 2050 as a result of the changing climate.

[Read more…] about Endangered Chocolate