prediction

And the heat goes on

October 16, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

August 2024 was the hottest August in the 175-years for which there are global records. The last full month of summer also wrapped up the Northern Hemisphere‘s warmest summer on record.

The average global surface temperature in August was 62.39 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 2.29 degrees above the 20th century August average. Furthermore, August was the 15th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures, which is a record in and of itself.

Regionally, Europe and Oceana had their warmest August on record. Asia had its second-warmest August, and Africa and North America had their third-warmest August.

The summer in the Northern Hemisphere was a record-breaker with a temperature 2.74 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Thinking about climate goals, this is 1.52 degrees Celsius above average, which is a troubling amount. Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, where it was winter in the June-to-August period, it was also the warmest ever with a temperature 1.73 degrees Fahrenheit above average.

Globally, this year to date ranks as the warmest ever recorded with a temperature 2.3 degrees above the 20th-century average. With a few months to go, the prediction is that there is a 97% chance that 2024 will rank as the world’s warmest year on record.

Other aspects of the global climate system were consistent with these record-breaking temperatures. The global ocean surface temperature for June through August was the warmest on record.

These monthly climate reports have an unfortunate similarity: the heat goes on.

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Earth had its hottest August in 175-year record

Photo, posted June 22, 2021, courtesy of Vicky Brock via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Offshore wind and the wake effect

May 28, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Electricity demand in the U.S. continues to grow and, in the summer, homes and businesses crank up their air conditioning which drives demand even further. Many East Coast cities are banking on offshore wind projects that are underway in the Atlantic Ocean to help meet that growing demand. The first offshore turbines are now producing power off the coasts of Massachusetts and New York.

Electric power utilities need to know how much power they can get from offshore wind farms, and this is not that easy to predict. Wind is variable, so there is some built-in uncertainty. But there is also a phenomenon known as the wake effect to contend with.

When wind passes through a series of giant turbines, the ones in front extract some energy from the wind and, as a result, the wind slows down and becomes more turbulent behind the turbines. So, the downstream turbines get slower wind and may produce less power.

A study by the University of Colorado has modeled this phenomenon for planned wind farms in the Atlantic Coast region and has found that power output could be reduced by over 30%. Researchers are installing weather monitors and radar sensors in islands off the New England coast to better understand the behavior of the wind in the area and improve prediction models.

The New England grid covers Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Even with the wake effect, offshore wind is predicted to be able to provide 60% of the electricity needs of the grid, but it is important to be able to accurately predict what it can produce.

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How much energy can offshore wind farms in the US produce? New study sheds light

Photo, posted August 31, 2022, courtesy of Nina Ali via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

An active hurricane season

May 13, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st until November 30th. Forecasters at Colorado State University have issued forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity since 1984 based on the pioneering work of Professor William Gray. This year’s forecast, issued in April, predicts a higher-than-average number of Atlantic storms. In fact, it may be one of the most active seasons on record.

On average, there are 14 named storms each season. This year, the prediction is for 23 of them. On average, there are 7 hurricanes each season. This year, the prediction is for 11. The prediction is for 5 major hurricanes among them. These predictions are among the highest on record, although in 2020 they predicted 12 hurricanes. In fact, that year there were 14 that actually took place.

Among the factors at play are that the El Niño that was occurring last year has dissipated and there is a good chance of a La Niña forming, which suppresses upper-level winds thereby making conditions ideal for hurricane formation and intensification. But the overarching factor is global warming which is driving ocean temperature rise. The water in the Atlantic, especially in the eastern Atlantic where most hurricanes form, has seen record-breaking warmth. More warm water means more chances for storms.

Other research groups echo the predictions from Colorado State and, in some cases, see ever greater chances for an extremely active hurricane season. The University of Pennsylvania forecast calls for 33 named storms.

The overall forecast is for a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean.

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Weather tracker: US experts predict one of most active hurricane seasons on record

Photo, posted September 5, 2017, courtesy of NASA/NOAA GOES Project via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Change And The World’s Fisheries | Earth Wise

March 10, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a new study, approximately 70% of the world’s oceans could be suffocating from a lack of oxygen by 2080 as a consequence of climate change. This has the potential to impact marine ecosystems all around the world.

The study, which was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, is the first to use climate models to predict how and when deoxygenation will occur throughout the world’s oceans outside of its natural variability.

According to the findings, significant and potentially irreversible deoxygenation of the ocean’s middle depths began occurring last year. The models predict that deoxygenation will begin affecting all zones of the ocean by 2080.

According to the study’s models, mid-ocean depths are already losing oxygen at unnatural rates. Globally, the ocean’s middle depth – known as the mesopelagic zone – is home to many of the world’s commercially fished species. This makes these new findings a potential harbinger of economic hardship, seafood shortages, and environmental disruption.

Just like land animals, aquatic animals need oxygen to breathe. As climate change warms the oceans, the water holds less oxygen and is more buoyant than cooler water. This leads to less mixing of oxygenated water near the surface with deeper waters, which naturally contain less oxygen. Warmer water also raises oxygen demand among living organisms, resulting in less availability for marine life.

The researchers also found that oceans closer to both the North Pole and the South Pole are particularly vulnerable to deoxygenation. While they are not yet sure why, accelerated climate warming could be the culprit.

These findings should add new urgency to climate change mitigation efforts.

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Climate change has likely begun to suffocate the world’s fisheries

Photo, posted January 28, 2019, courtesy of Joseph Gage via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Devastating Threat To Coral Reef Habitats | Earth Wise

March 25, 2020 By EarthWise 2 Comments

According to new research from scientists at the University of Hawaii Manoa, the warming and acidifying oceans could wipe out nearly all existing coral reef habitats by 2100. In fact, the researchers predict that 70-90% of coral reefs will disappear over the next 20 years alone as a consequence of climate change and pollution.

Some organizations are attempting to save coral habitats by transplanting live corals from labs to reefs. The idea is that the new young corals will help revive the reefs. But after mapping where such restoration efforts would be most successful, the research indicates that there will be little to no suitable habitat remaining for corals by 2100. Small portions of Baja California and the Red Sea are two of the sites that could remain viable by 2100, although neither are ideal due to their proximity to rivers. Sea surfaces temperature and acidity are two of the most important factors in determining the viability of a site for restoration.

Warming ocean waters stress corals, which cause them to expel the symbiotic algae living inside them. This turns the often colorful corals white – an event known as coral bleaching. Bleached corals are not dead corals, but they are at a higher risk of dying. These coral bleaching events are becoming more frequent as a result of the changing climate.

The projected increases in human pollution will only play a minor role in the future elimination of coral reef habitats. Ironically, that’s because humans have already caused such extensive damage to coral reefs that there aren’t many locations left to impact.

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Warming, acidic oceans may nearly eliminate coral reef habitats by 2100

Photo, posted September 28, 2009, courtesy of Matt Kieffer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Predicting Lightning Strikes

November 19, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Lightning is one of the most unpredictable phenomena in nature. Approximately 100 lightning bolts strike earth’s surface every second, and each lightning bolt can contain up to one billion volts of electricity. Lightning regularly kills both people and animals and sets homes and forests on fire. It’s also been known to ground airplanes.

Researchers at EPFL – a research institute and university in Switzerland – have developed a novel way to predict where and when lightning will strike. The system relies on a combination of standard data from weather stations and artificial intelligence to predict lightning strikes to the nearest 10 to 30 minutes and within a radius of less than 20 miles. The simple and inexpensive system was outlined in a research paper recently published in Climate and Atmospheric Science, a Nature partner journal.

According to researchers, the current systems for predicting lightning strikes are slow, expensive, and complex, relying on external data acquired by satellite and radar. The new inexpensive system from EPFL uses real time data that can be obtained from any weather station, meaning it can cover remote regions that are out of radar and satellite range and where communication networks are lacking. The quick predictions from the system allow alerts to be issued before a storm has even formed.

The system uses a machine-learning algorithm that’s been trained to recognize conditions that lead to lightning. The researchers took into account atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, among other things. After training the algorithm, the system was able to predict lightning strikes accurately nearly 80% of the time.

This system is a simple way to predict a complex phenomenon.

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Using AI to predict where and when lightning will strike

Photo, posted December 14, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Science And False Beliefs

January 21, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There are sizeable numbers of people who hold to beliefs that run counter to overwhelming contrary evidence. Flat Earthers and Holocaust deniers are well-known examples and, more recently, people – some of them in high places – who reject the evidence for climate change.

New research published in the journal Open Mind by developmental psychologists at UC Berkeley suggest that feedback, rather than hard evidence, boosts people’s sense of certainty when learning new things or trying to tell right from wrong. People’s beliefs are more likely to be reinforced by the positive or negative reactions they are exposed to than by logic, reasoning, and scientific data.

People’s learning habits can limit one’s intellectual horizons. According to the study, if you think you know a lot about something, even though you don’t, you’re less likely to be curious enough to explore the topic further and will fail to learn how little you know.

This phenomenon plays out in social media and cable-news echo chambers and explains how some people are easily duped by charlatans. Receiving positive feedback for what they are saying can make people believe they know more than they actually do. This confidence makes them less likely to seek out and learn more information about the subject, as well as take into account contradicting opinions or facts.

Another factor is that what influences people’s certainty is that their confidence tends to depend on what they heard most recently rather than on long-term cumulative data. A few pieces of recent information tend to get much more attention than an extensive body of data. If a crazy theory is able to make a correct prediction a few times, people tend to get fixed in their belief in that theory and be less open to other information.

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Here’s Why People Advocate False Beliefs, Conspiracy Theories Despite Evidence

Photo, posted February 2, 2007, courtesy of Tim J. Keegan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Breakthrough In Animal Identification

December 25, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Researchers from the University of Wyoming have developed a computer model that can identify wild animals in camera-trap photographs with remarkable accuracy and efficiency.

This breakthrough in artificial intelligence (AI), detailed in a paper recently published in the scientific journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, represents a significant advancement in the study and conservation of wildlife. According to the paper’s authors, “the ability to rapidly identify millions of images from camera traps can fundamentally change the way ecologists design and implement wildlife studies.”

This study builds on previous research from the university in which a computer model analyzed 3.2 million images captured by camera traps in Africa. The A-I technique called deep learning categorized animal images at a 96.6% accuracy rate. This was the same accuracy rate as teams of human volunteers achieved, but the computer model worked at a much more rapid pace.

In the latest study, UW researchers trained a deep neural network on a powerful computer cluster to classify wildlife species using 3.37 million camera-trap images of 27 different animal species. The model was tested on nearly 375,000 images at a rate of about 2,000 images per minute. It achieved a 97.6% accuracy rate, which is likely the highest accuracy to date in using machine learning for wildlife image classification.

Artificial intelligence has been used in environmental science in other ways as well. For example, AI has been used to increase agricultural yields in farm fields and to help predict extreme weather.

Maybe artificial intelligence can prove to be a game changer for the environment.

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Researchers Successfully Train Computers to Identify Animals in Photos

Photo, posted January 8, 2012, courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Traffic Jams In The Jet Stream

July 13, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Many extreme weather events are associated with unusual behavior by the jet stream. Jet streams are the global air currents that circle the earth. The meandering and speed changes in the jet stream affect weather and also play a big role in how long it takes aircraft to make their way across the country. The behavior that leads to extreme weather events is known as “blocking” in which the meandering jet stream stops weather systems from moving eastward.

Endangered Chocolate

February 14, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There are many scary stories floating about with regard to dire potential consequences of climate change, but one that should really strike fear into many of our hearts is the prediction from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that cacao plants are likely to go extinct as early as 2050 as a result of the changing climate.

[Read more…] about Endangered Chocolate