odds

The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

A new study by the ETH Institute in Zurich has found that the risk of fatal heatwaves has risen sharply over the past 20 years, and in the future, such extreme weather will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase, particularly in Europe. According to a paper published in Nature Medicine, more than 61,000 deaths in Europe could be blamed on the heat during the summer of 2022, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent. When the readings from this summer are analyzed, that record is likely to be surpassed.

Heatwaves lead to excess deaths due to dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular collapse. They are particularly deadly for the elderly, the sick, and the poor. The ETH researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 748 cities and communities in 47 countries. They determined the relationship between increased temperature and excess mortality. Their models look at how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), and both 1.5 degrees (the limit sought by the Paris Agreement) and 2 degrees.

Even with the current global temperature, heatwaves that were a once-in-a-century event are now expected to occur every 10 years. With 2 degrees of warming, such heatwaves could happen every 2 to 5 years.

**********

Web Links

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more deadly

Photo, posted July 22, 2009, courtesy of Matt McGee via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Scientists have concluded that the changing climate is primarily the result of increased human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Some of the effects of global climate change include melting glaciers, warming oceans, intensifying storms, and rising seas.

Another consequence of global climate change is natural disasters like floods and wildfires. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires and increasing the odds of record-breaking floods in many parts of the United States and all around the world.

As a result, scientists in Australia have turned to technology for better assistance in keeping tabs on these climate change-driven natural disasters. Researchers from Curtin University in Perth, Australia have found that satellites can improve the ability to detect, monitor, prepare for, and withstand natural disasters, including floods, wildfires, and earthquakes.

The research team used Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, which was acquired by the European Space Agency Sentinel-1 satellite. The researchers also used data acquired by other satellites to evaluate these Australia-specific case studies.

According to the researchers, SAR data provides remote monitoring capabilities of Earth’s surface around the clock and in all weather, which is something that traditional optical Earth Observation (EO) imagery cannot do. The ability to function through fog, clouds, rainfall, and smoke is what makes SAR so valuable.

The research team says that the data can be used to improve how people track and respond to natural disasters, by precisely mapping topography, tracking movements of the ground, and mapping damage to infrastructure.

As the climate continues to change, the ability to mitigate hazards like floods and wildfires will be increasingly important.

**********

Web Links

Radar satellites can better protect against bushfires and floods

Photo, posted May 11, 2007, courtesy of Bert Knottenbeld via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Deadly Heatwaves On The Rise | Earth Wise

The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

Web Links

Radar Satellites And Hazard Mitigation | Earth Wise

Scientists have concluded that the changing climate is primarily the result of increased human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Some of the effects of global climate change include melting glaciers, warming oceans, intensifying storms, and rising seas.

Web Links