national weather service

Reduced Air Travel And Weather Forecasts | Earth Wise

December 16, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There have been countless stories about the major and minor changes in the world caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. A few of those changes, such as reductions in pollution and traffic, have been positive. Most have been decidedly negative.

One of the stranger things that has happened is that the pandemic has affected the quality of weather forecasting by sharply reducing the amount of atmospheric data routinely collected by commercial airliners.

It turns out that atmospheric observations from passenger and cargo flights are among the most important data used in weather forecasting models. These observations are made by instruments aboard thousands of airliners, mostly based in North America and Europe. The observation program has been in place for decades. The data is transmitted in real time to forecasting organizations around the world, including the National Weather Service. About 40 airlines participate in the program, which has equipment aboard about 3,500 aircraft. Here in the US, Delta, United, American, and Southwest Airlines participate, as do UPS and FedEx.

During the first few months of the pandemic, air traffic declined by 75% or more worldwide. As a result, atmospheric observations dropped by the same percentage. A government research study showed that when weather forecasting models receive less data on temperature, wind, and humidity from aircraft, the accuracy of forecasts was reduced.

The amount of data from aircraft has increased in recent months as air travel has picked up to roughly 50% of pre-pandemic levels. So, the observation program is on the mend. Nonetheless, impaired weather forecasting is just another unexpected result of the global pandemic.

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Slump in Air Travel Hindered Weather Forecasting, Study Shows

Photo, posted July 15, 2017, courtesy of Daria Nepriakhina via Flickr. Photo by Photo by Daria / epicantus.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Fall Safety Tips | Earth Wise

November 4, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The fall season has its own weather-related hazards, such as raging wildfires across the West and a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic. There might even be snow in some places. The National Weather Service issued a set of four broad safety tips for being prepared for the dangers of fall weather.

With regard to wildfires, it is important for smokers to properly discard cigarettes, for people to avoid activities with open flames or sparks, and to use fire-resistant landscaping around our homes. The Weather Service issues Red Flag Warnings when conditions are ripe for wildfires.

In this busy hurricane season, even people who don’t live in hurricane surge evacuation areas need to know their home’s vulnerability to damage from high winds and inland flooding. People should have a plan that includes an emergency kit and a safe place to shelter should they need to evacuate.

It is important to have a plan in case strong winds pose a threat. When preparing for an extreme wind event, secure objects that can be tossed or rolled, trim trees near homes, and have a plan in case of an extended power failure. Strong winds can even happen on a clear day.

The key advice in case you encounter flood waters is “turn around, don’t drown.” It is never safe to walk or drive into a flooded roadway. It is best to delay travel until roads are clear.

Fall can be the most beautiful season of the year, but it also has its dangers. Following advice such as that provided by the Weather Service is prudent and potentially life-saving.

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Four safety tips for fall hazards: Small actions can have big impacts

Photo, posted October 30, 2014, courtesy of Virginia State Parks via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Off-The-Charts Heat

August 9, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There have been some blistering heatwaves this summer – in Europe, in the Middle East, and here in the United States. A new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists projects that within the next 20 years, millions of people in the United States could be exposed to dangerous “off-the-charts” heat index conditions of 127 degrees Fahrenheit or more. Within 60 years, over one-third of the population could be exposed to such conditions.

Extreme heat kills hundreds of people every year across the U.S. Our bodies’ natural cooling process is affected by humidity and the combined heat index measures the impact of high temperature and high humidity. When the combined heat index reaches 90 degrees, it is considered to be a “dangerous day”, when many groups of people are at serious risk.

Because of the warming climate, the number of dangerous days has been increasing in many parts of the country. Unless there is success in limiting the effects of climate change, by 2050, even relatively temperate cities like Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, and Chicago will have 50 or more dangerous days a year. Places like Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Miami will experience dangerous days for half of the year.

The National Weather Service’s heat index goes up to 127 degrees Fahrenheit. But in as soon as 20 years, the Southeast, Southern Great Plains, and Midwest will begin to experience days that are so hot that they are “off the charts.”

These extreme conditions could still be avoided with steep, rapid carbon emission reductions. But however successful we are going forward, the US will still be significantly warmer than today with 85 urban areas exposed to 30 or more days with a heat index above 105 degrees, compared with just three urban areas historically.

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‘Off-the-charts’ heat to affect millions in U.S. in coming decades

Photo, posted August 8, 2008, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.