historical data

There are lots of extreme weather events of all kinds these days. But there have always been extreme weather events. Climate change results in more extreme weather but not all extreme weather should be attributed to climate change. So, how do we know if an extreme weather event is a result of the changing climate? Communities that are affected by extreme weather events need to know whether they are likely to see more such events in the future, or if they are anomalies like a “500-year storm” or such.

Researchers at North Carolina State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Princeton University developed a routine process for evaluating extreme weather events.

The test case was an extreme heat wave that affected Texas and Louisiana in 2023. This notable heat wave lasted almost the entire summer. The scientists used a two-step process to determine whether the heat wave was an anomaly or part of a new pattern. They took historical data from the past 100 years to see how unusual 2023 was. Then they compared that data with both past and present predictive computer models. Comparing the predictive models can indicate whether climate change was a factor in the event.

In this case, a similar drought would not have been as hot 50 years earlier, which indicates that the heat wave is related to climate change and that even more intense heat waves are likely to occur in the future.

This sort of information is important for communities to prepare for future events.

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When is a Heat Wave Just a Heat Wave, and When is it Climate Change?

Photo, posted July 22, 2006, courtesy of Saturnism via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A new study by Stanford University looked at the effects of climate change on global economic inequality. The study found that the gap between the economic output of the world’s richest and poorest countries is larger today than it would have been without global warming.

The warming climate has enriched cooler countries like Norway and Sweden while dragging down economic growth in warm countries such as India and Nigeria. The results of the study showed that most of the poorest countries on Earth are considerably poorer than they would have been in the absence of rising temperatures. At the same time, the majority of rich countries are richer than they would have otherwise been.

Detailed analysis of 50 years of annual temperature and GDP measurements for 165 countries demonstrated that growth during warmer than average years has accelerated in cool nations and slowed in warm nations. Historical data clearly show that crops are more productive, people are healthier, and they are more productive at work when temperatures are neither too hot nor too cold. That means that in cold countries, a little bit of warming can help but the opposite is true in places that are already hot.

For most counties, whether global warming has helped or hurt economic growth is pretty certain. Tropical countries in particular tend to have temperatures far outside the ideal for economic growth and they are already among the poorest countries. It is less clear how warming has influenced growth in countries in the middle latitudes, such as here in the United States. Some of the largest economies are near the perfect temperature for economic output but continued warming in the future is likely to push them away from the temperature optimum.

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Climate change has worsened global economic inequality

Photo, posted November 1, 2011, courtesy of CIAT via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

When is a heat wave just a heat wave?

Web Links

Climate Change And Economic Inequality

A new study by Stanford University looked at the effects of climate change on global economic inequality. The study found that the gap between the economic output of the world’s richest and poorest countries is larger today than it would have been without global warming.

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