excess deaths

The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

A new study by the ETH Institute in Zurich has found that the risk of fatal heatwaves has risen sharply over the past 20 years, and in the future, such extreme weather will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase, particularly in Europe. According to a paper published in Nature Medicine, more than 61,000 deaths in Europe could be blamed on the heat during the summer of 2022, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent. When the readings from this summer are analyzed, that record is likely to be surpassed.

Heatwaves lead to excess deaths due to dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular collapse. They are particularly deadly for the elderly, the sick, and the poor. The ETH researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 748 cities and communities in 47 countries. They determined the relationship between increased temperature and excess mortality. Their models look at how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), and both 1.5 degrees (the limit sought by the Paris Agreement) and 2 degrees.

Even with the current global temperature, heatwaves that were a once-in-a-century event are now expected to occur every 10 years. With 2 degrees of warming, such heatwaves could happen every 2 to 5 years.

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Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more deadly

Photo, posted July 22, 2009, courtesy of Matt McGee via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

This past summer was marked by some devastating heat waves in Europe. Through November, the UK, Germany, and France have experienced their hottest year on record.

The UK has experienced its warmest year since 1884 and, in fact, all the top ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2002.

In France, the average temperature for the year is a few tenths of a degree higher than the previous record, which was set in 2020.

In Germany, the first 11 months of the year saw a record for average temperature. Its previous record was also set in 2020.

All three countries saw a spike in heat-related mortality as result of the summer heatwaves. England and Wales reported 3,271 excess deaths during the summer. France reported 2,816 excess deaths during its three heat waves. In Germany, an estimated 4,500 people died as a result of extreme heat.

There are multiple effects of climate change which include more frequent heat waves in Europe. A recent study showed that European summers are warming twice as fast as the global average. In fact, summer temperatures across much of the European continent have already risen by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 2 degrees Celsius, which is the feared level of global climate increase that nations around the world are trying to stave off.

Worldwide, 2022 will rank among the top ten warmest years on record but will most likely not be the warmest. That being said, the past eight years are on track to be the eight warmest years on record. The US will also see one of its ten warmest years, although not the warmest.

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UK, Germany, France on Pace for Their Hottest Year on Record

Photo, posted April 23, 2022, courtesy of Jose A. via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Deadly Heatwaves On The Rise | Earth Wise

The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

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A Hot Year In Europe | Earth Wise

This past summer was marked by some devastating heat waves in Europe. Through November, the UK, Germany, and France have experienced their hottest year on record.

Web Links