ETH Zurich

A new study by ETH Zurich, one of the world’s leading universities in science and engineering, demonstrates that human-induced climate change greatly increased the likelihood and intensity of over 200 global heatwaves between 2000 and 2023. Emissions associated with each of the 180 largest producers of fossil fuels and cement contributed substantially to these events. Emissions from these so-called carbon majors accounted for 60% of humanity’s total cumulative CO₂ emissions from 1850 to 2023.

The research looked at 213 heatwaves that occurred on all seven of Earth’s continents between 2000 and 2023. The study calculated how climate change affected the intensity and likelihood of each heatwave.

According to the study, global warming made heatwaves 20 times more likely between 2000 and 2009, and as much as 200 times more likely between 2010 and 2019, compared with the period between 1850 and 1900.

Estimates are that the 180 carbon majors are responsible for about half of the change in global mean surface temperature over time. Furthermore, 14 of these 180 entities made the same contribution to climate change as the remaining 166 organizations combined.

While every one of us – individuals, countries, or companies – contributes to climate change, the carbon majors have especially significant responsibility.

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Rising heat waves tied to fossil fuel and cement production

Photo, posted May 1, 2019, courtesy of Martin Snicer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Aletsch Glacier in Switzerland is the largest glacier in the Alps. Every year, it attracts thousands of visitors from around the world. The huge ice flow in the Upper Valais region of Switzerland is an Alpine tourist attraction second only to the Matterhorn. In the summer, meltwater from the glacier is an important water source in the dry Rhone Valley.

As the climate continues to warm, the massive glacier continues to shrink. The tongue of the glacier has receded by about a kilometer since the year 2000 and scientists predict that this trend will continue over the coming years.

Detailed simulations by researchers at ETH Zurich assessed the future of the Aletsch Glacier under different scenarios related to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and the resulting warming.

The best-case scenario in which global warming is limited to less than 2 degrees Celsius would result in the glacier being half the size it is today by the end of the century. If the global community does not pull together quickly to take effective measures against global warming, Switzerland could warm by as much as 4 to 8 degrees and by 2100, what was once the largest glacier in the Alps will be a couple of measly patches of ice.

To understand how much global warming has already impacted the glacier to date, even if somehow the climate remains the same as it has been for the past 10 years going forward, the ice volume of the Aletsch glacier will still decrease by nearly half its volume by the end of the century. The glacier is no longer in equilibrium with the climate.

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Gloomy forecast for the Aletsch Glacier

Photo, posted April 7, 2007, courtesy of Jessica Gardner via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Heatwaves and major carbon emitters

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Bad News For The Aletsch Glacier

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