[audio:http://wamcradio.org/EarthWise/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EW-06-25-14-Rising-Seas.mp3|titles=EW 06-25-14 Rising Seas]
Melting polar ice and rising sea levels are some of the most obvious results of the ongoing global warming of our planet. Politicians may argue about whether the warming we are experiencing is caused by humans, but all agree that our planet has warmed during the past couple of hundred years.
Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise. The new National Climate Assessment postulates huge property damage from rising seas in Miami, especially if a high tide accompanies a seasonal hurricane. New York City, especially the lower Manhattan and Wall Street regions, is also vulnerable.
A new analysis of sea level records from 1844 to the present finds that 3 of the highest 9 recorded tides in New York have occurred since 2010, and 8 of the highest 20 since 1990. This cluster of high tides in recent years is outside of the normal boundaries of statistical variation.
A tide that is 0.75 m (about 30 inches) higher than the long term average now has a statistical probability of occurring every 10 years. The probability of overtopping existing seawalls has increased from about 1% in 1856 to 20-25% today.
However you feel about the scientific evidence for global warming, like the Dutch, we may be spending a lot more money to hold back the sea—from coastal cities, navy ports, and summer vacation homes. Brace yourself.
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Web Links
See Talke, Orton and Jay. 2014. Increasing storm tides in New York Harbor, 1944-2013. Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL059574
Photo, posted November 15, 2008, courtesy of Julie G via Flickr.
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Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio. Support for Earth Wise comes from the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY.