Climate scientists talk about “tipping points” for the calamitous consequences of global climate change. These are triggers for abrupt changes in the climate that could bring about a variety of disasters.
Such events have been the grist for a number of works of popular fiction over the past decade or so including disaster movies like “The Day After Tomorrow”. Recently, the National Research Council issued a report on “Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises” that looked at a variety of potential scenarios.
The report concluded that some abrupt climate shifts – such as the disruption of the ocean currents that flow in the North Atlantic ocean fictionalized in the movie – are very unlikely to occur at any time this century. Included in this category are catastrophic methane releases from seabeds and sudden large sea level rises triggered by ice sheet destabilization. Some of these scenarios were deemed much more likely in the NRC’s predecessor report from 2002 entitled “Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises”.
Along with the relative good news in the recent report is the warning that some abrupt climate changes are quite possible and, in some cases, are already underway. Such things as increases in the intensity and frequency of heat waves and extreme storms as well as rapid changes in ecosystems are deemed to be more and more likely.
The report concludes with a call for an early warning system for abrupt climate changes. The risks to society and nature are high enough that we need to carefully monitor our changing environment.
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Panel Says Global Warming Carries Risk of Deep Changes
Photo, taken on April 8, 2011, courtesy of Kim Hill/Karsun Designs Photography via Flickr.
Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio. Support for Earth Wise comes from the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY.