Recently the Wall Street Journal and USA Today carried articles reporting on the work of Jonathan Last, a journalist who fears that the declining U.S. birth rate will lead to our country’s economic decline. Today, we have 4 workers to support every retired person. By 2030, Last calculates that this will drop to 2.5—an economic burden that will sap the nation of its economic vitality.
But, scientists know that growth cannot continue forever in a world of finite natural resources, and we have lauded recent trends towards stabilizing population over much of the world. Having more babies today to support a larger older population tomorrow sets us on a course towards having even more babies in the future to support even more older folks. Growth is not always better.
Jonathan Last and his coworkers counter that population growth leads to human innovation and innovation leads to conservation. I am not sure that I see much evidence for this as I look around the world to nations with high rates of population growth and I see chaos, as in Afghanistan, or degraded and deteriorating landscapes, as in Niger and much of sub-Saharan Africa.
In contrast, with its low rate of population growth, China shows enormous economic vitality, and a new interest in environmental quality.
Encouraging population growth is a hollow pathway to sustainable economic prosperity. Instead, we should focus on quality of life, where a stable population is able to live well and support its social needs without increasing stresses on the Earth’s environment.
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Photo, taken on June 27, 2008, courtesy of Phil Whitehouse via Flickr.
Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio. Support for Earth Wise comes from the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY, with partial support from the Field Day Foundation.