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In 1974, Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich proposed a simple equation to measure human impact on the environment: Impact = population x affluence x technology.
A recent visit to China left me with a stark understanding of what he meant. With its one-child-per-family policy in place, China’s overall population is reaching a high, but stable, level of 1.4 billion people.
Economic affluence, however, is growing rapidly—more than 8% per year, spurred by government policies aimed to raise the economic standards of every Chinese citizen. The results are astounding. Cars fill the streets of Beijing and Shanghai and vast apartment buildings dominate the landscape.
In many measures, quality of life has improved. But pollution abounds, as measured in air quality standards and by even a casual glance at any drainage ditch or stream that crosses the landscape.
The Chinese take pollution seriously, and they are putting huge effort into technological fixes to their environmental problems. This highlights an often overlooked aspect of Ehrlich’s equation: technology can be harnessed to counteract the negative impacts of population and affluence.
We should put this equation in force in our own country, where the population – including immigrants – is growing at 1%/year, and politicians on both sides expound the need for economic growth and more jobs. Missing from the debate is technology.
This fall I’ll be voting for those who support research and development in industries that minimize the environmental impacts of economic growth—solar power, improved crop varieties, and cleaner water.
We need to make sure the discounting term of technology is not lost from Ehrlich’s equation.
Photo, taken on July 2, 2007, courtesy of Jim Clark via Flickr.